Mental Midgets

[TruffleShuffle]

.223/.330/.344/.674 with RISP this season. the BA, SLG and OPS are worst in MLB.

 

with nobody on, they're at .248/.311/407/.718... not nearly as bad.

 

I don't know about you, but that looks "nearly as bad" to me. A significantly lower OBP with a higher SLG equates to just about as pathetic.

 

yeah but drawing a walk when you've got runners on 2nd and 3rd doesn't do as much good as a double or home run. their BA and SLG are a lot lower with RISP, which means they're not producing nearly as many runs in those situations as they should be.

 

the cubs are #7 in HR/AB with the bases empty, and #21 with runners on. they're also averaging a K in 24.3% of their ABs with runner on, versus 22.1% with the bases empty. taking a look at the clutch category on the hardball times stats page, most of the team is below zero, some far below zero.

[Soul]

I have said it time and time before. Being a Cubs fan is like being a woman stuck with an abusive husband who lies about where the bruises come from. She just loves him too much to leave him.

 

 

Exactly.

 

"But Jim Hendry traded for Aram in 2003", pleaded the teary eyed Cubs fan......

And has a large part of the responsibility for turning this team from a perennial doormat to back-to-back division champs. There are lots of reasons why hendry is not a great GM, but he's not as terrible as you'd love to make him seem.

 

Before that he turned them into back-to-back disastrously awful seasons.

 

The money did more to make this team successful than Hendry did.

 

Yes, except that I don't define success as getting to the playoffs only to suffer yet another soul-crushing defeat.

[jersey cubs fan]

Again, they aren't really getting on in the first place, and with so few threats, it's easy for a pitcher to walk the one guy who could do damage in a situation to get to the next schmuck.

 

Everybody is focused on leaving men on, but with a .311 OBP with nobody on, they still need to focus on getting more people on base overall.

 

And the difference in SLG with runners on and nobody on is probably closely related to Soriano, who has a heck of a lot of PA with nobody on than with runners on.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, except that I don't define success as getting to the playoffs only to suffer yet another soul-crushing defeat.

 

Winning your division is a success, it's just not the ultimate success.

[Soul]

Yes, except that I don't define success as getting to the playoffs only to suffer yet another soul-crushing defeat.

 

Winning your division is a success, it's just not the ultimate success.

 

I keep telling myself that, but somehow it doesn't help.

[CubColtPacer]

.223/.330/.344/.674 with RISP this season. the BA, SLG and OPS are worst in MLB.

 

with nobody on, they're at .248/.311/407/.718... not nearly as bad.

 

I don't know about you, but that looks "nearly as bad" to me. A significantly lower OBP with a higher SLG equates to just about as pathetic.

 

Where are you getting your numbers Truffle? I have:

 

.247/.325/.398 (.723) for the season and

 

.219/.326/.337 (.663) with RISP for the season.

 

Jersey, the Cubs have the second to last difference in the major leagues in their OBP from their season and RISP. They only have a +1 difference between the two. The only team in the negative in that statistic is the Nationals (-7 points). Almost every team in the league gets a significant bump in OBP with RISP because of pitching around hitters. The major league average in that category is adding 19 points to a teams normal OBP to get their OBP with RISP.

 

As for the other two statistics, the average major league team loses 3 points on their batting average with RISP compared to their overall numbers. The Cubs are down 28 points.

 

The average major league team loses 11 points on their slugging with RISP. The Cubs have lost 61.

 

The average major league team's OPS is 8 points higher with RISP than the overall. The Cubs are 60 points lower.

 

We can debate the causes of it, but one thing is for certain. The Cubs performance with RISP is very, very abnormal.

 

Edit: Truffle, I didn't see where you had said nobody on. Your numbers are correct for nobody on. The Cubs overall numbers are better than that even with their dismal RISP numbers because they are doing very well with just a runner on 1B (.286/.369/.455). That's almost amazing..a 161 point difference in production between the runner standing on 1st base or a runner standing on 2nd and 3rd. And each of those samples has between 400 and 600 at-bats, so it's not a really tiny sample size.

[jersey cubs fan]

.223/.330/.344/.674 with RISP this season. the BA, SLG and OPS are worst in MLB.

 

with nobody on, they're at .248/.311/407/.718... not nearly as bad.

 

I don't know about you, but that looks "nearly as bad" to me. A significantly lower OBP with a higher SLG equates to just about as pathetic.

 

Where are you getting your numbers Truffle? I have:

 

.247/.325/.398 (.723) for the season and

 

.219/.326/.337 (.663) with RISP for the season.

 

He is saying with nobody on, you are saying overall.

 

Cubs have .248 .311 .407 with none on and .247 .344 .384 with runners on. The difference in SLG is probably Soriano's 9 bases empty HR, which is going to happen when you bat leadoff for a team with a plethora of absolute garbage in the 7 and 8 hole and an impatient power hitter leading off.

 

The focus on RISP is misguided. They suck whether they have a man on base or not. They have a terrible OBP and just as bad SLG. They don't get on and they don't hit for power. The RISP is just a sympton, it's not the cause.

[TruffleShuffle]

Again, they aren't really getting on in the first place, and with so few threats, it's easy for a pitcher to walk the one guy who could do damage in a situation to get to the next schmuck.

 

Everybody is focused on leaving men on, but with a .311 OBP with nobody on, they still need to focus on getting more people on base overall.

 

And the difference in SLG with runners on and nobody on is probably closely related to Soriano, who has a heck of a lot of PA with nobody on than with runners on.

 

wouldn't that also explain the difference in OBP, since soriano's OBP is a terrible .294?

 

i'm not saying that the cubs' primary focus should be improving their numbers with RISP - clearly the lack of OBP this year is a bigger problem, though I would argue that they should be more aggressive in run-scoring situations than they have been. my point is that the cubs' lack of production in those situations has cost the cubs a bunch of runs and probably about 3-4 wins already.

 

since you mention soriano, he's certainly one of the major culprits:

 

soriano:

nobody on: .241/.291/.442

RISP: .154/.297/.288

 

lee:

nobody on: .308/.374/.567

RISP: .236/.371/.418

 

soto:

nobody on: .222/.293/.444

RISP: .200/.352/.218

 

hoffpauir:

nobody on: .263/.311/.386

RISP: .220/.250/.341

 

fontenot:

nobody on: .222/.283/.376

RISP: .196/.322/.304

 

miles:

nobody on: .237/.266/.289

RISP: .107/.194/.179

 

johnson:

nobody on: .283/.367/.509

RISP: .225/.273/.350

[TruffleShuffle]

The difference in SLG is probably Soriano's 9 bases empty HR

 

it's not.

[Warren Brusstar]

not hitting with RISP makes them "mental midgets"?

 

i think it's clear that it's in their heads right now and it's affecting them, so yeah

 

So there's such thing as a clutch hitter?

[abuck1220]

speaking of midgets, man is fontenot terrible. what a disaster of a move by hendry.

[Little Slide Rooter]

his sneaky power snuck away.

[TruffleShuffle]

speaking of midgets, man is fontenot terrible. what a disaster of a move by hendry.

 

i thought fontenot would be fine, and i still thought it was a stupid move. fontenot doesn't hit lefties, so even if you used a strict platoon, derosa would start about a quarter of the time. you're also going to a 2B who doesn't hit well again power RHP, so derosa could start again them. then you have an aging roster with a 3B, LF and RF who are good bets to miss at least some time due to injury. a proven bat who can fill in capably at all those positions becomes invaluable. and in case fontenot can't be an everyday player, derosa gives you insurance there.

 

instead they trade him for three marginal prospects and sign aaron miles, saving the relatively small sum of $3M to bring in a guy who cannot hit. great move.

[KingCubsFan]

speaking of midgets, man is fontenot terrible. what a disaster of a move by hendry.

 

i thought fontenot would be fine, and i still thought it was a stupid move. fontenot doesn't hit lefties, so even if you used a strict platoon, derosa would start about a quarter of the time. you're also going to a 2B who doesn't hit well again power RHP, so derosa could start again them. then you have an aging roster with a 3B, LF and RF who are good bets to miss at least some time due to injury. a proven bat who can fill in capably at all those positions becomes invaluable. and in case fontenot can't be an everyday player, derosa gives you insurance there.

 

instead they trade him for three marginal prospects and sign aaron miles, saving the relatively small sum of $3M to bring in a guy who cannot hit. great move.

And waste millions on Gregg and Heilman as well. Was this offseason worse than than 2005-2006? It's hard to be wrong on every move you make in an offseason, but Hendry managed to do it.

[Soul]

The Miles move is still making me cringe.

 

That move was Epic Fail from the very beginning.

[jersey cubs fan]

speaking of midgets, man is fontenot terrible. what a disaster of a move by hendry.

 

i thought fontenot would be fine, and i still thought it was a stupid move. fontenot doesn't hit lefties, so even if you used a strict platoon, derosa would start about a quarter of the time. you're also going to a 2B who doesn't hit well again power RHP, so derosa could start again them. then you have an aging roster with a 3B, LF and RF who are good bets to miss at least some time due to injury. a proven bat who can fill in capably at all those positions becomes invaluable. and in case fontenot can't be an everyday player, derosa gives you insurance there.

 

instead they trade him for three marginal prospects and sign aaron miles, saving the relatively small sum of $3M to bring in a guy who cannot hit. great move.

 

In a way they didn't even save $3m since they are on the hook for next year as well with Miles (not to mention the theory that it allowed them to overspend on Bradley for 3 years).

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm not sure when the last time was I saw a box score that was that ghastly in the LOB department.

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.54  Sun 06/07  @ Cincinnati        6- 3  Wells           Arroyo        

[17 Seconds]

not hitting with RISP makes them "mental midgets"?

 

i think it's clear that it's in their heads right now and it's affecting them, so yeah

 

So there's such thing as a clutch hitter?

 

i dunno, but i think you're lying to yourself if you're saying there aren't guys who don't handle pressure as well as other players. i don't know if guys can actually get better in clutch situations, but i def think they can get worse.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i dunno, but i think you're lying to yourself if you're saying there aren't guys who don't handle pressure as well as other players. i don't know if guys can actually get better in clutch situations, but i def think they can get worse.

 

By default, that would have to mean that some guys perform better.

[17 Seconds]

i dunno, but i think you're lying to yourself if you're saying there aren't guys who don't handle pressure as well as other players. i don't know if guys can actually get better in clutch situations, but i def think they can get worse.

 

By default, that would have to mean that some guys perform better.

 

but not that the better peformance is due to them being a special kind of player or something like that. i believe a player can become worse if he's in his head too much or can't handle the pressure. i'm not even necessarily talking about a specific player. it could just be a team in a really bad slump

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i dunno, but i think you're lying to yourself if you're saying there aren't guys who don't handle pressure as well as other players. i don't know if guys can actually get better in clutch situations, but i def think they can get worse.

 

By default, that would have to mean that some guys perform better.

 

but not that the better peformance is due to them being a special kind of player or something like that. i believe a player can become worse if he's in his head too much or can't handle the pressure. i'm not even necessarily talking about a specific player. it could just be a team in a really bad slump

 

 

If some pitchers get worse in clutch situations, and some batters don't, then those batters would by default have the appearance of clutch hitting, and it would show up in statistical analysis.

[17 Seconds]

i dunno, but i think you're lying to yourself if you're saying there aren't guys who don't handle pressure as well as other players. i don't know if guys can actually get better in clutch situations, but i def think they can get worse.

 

By default, that would have to mean that some guys perform better.

 

but not that the better peformance is due to them being a special kind of player or something like that. i believe a player can become worse if he's in his head too much or can't handle the pressure. i'm not even necessarily talking about a specific player. it could just be a team in a really bad slump

 

 

If some pitchers get worse in clutch situations, and some batters don't, then those batters would by default have the appearance of clutch hitting, and it would show up in statistical analysis.

 

you're really making this more complicated than it really is. all i'm saying is that pressure can negatively effect hitters at times. the fact that the cubs have been so atrocious with risp this season is partly luck, yeah. but you cant say that part of it isn't that they're pressing (or whatever you want to call it)

 

it's kind of like the people who keep saying "the cubs just got cold at the wrong time the past 2 seasons" and stuff like that, when it's clear that they flat out choked. they couldn't handle the moment. it was obvious. they crumbled under the pressure.