Re: 6/23 postgame... Gregg meatball #684

[dew1679666265]

SD's incentive would be to maximize their younger talent for Bell on a team that has no chance of winning anytime soon, I expect him to get around 4 mil next year.

 

It'd be worth a call, for sure, but I suspect they'd ask for well more than we should pay for that kind of upgrade.

 

As far as Sanchez, he was bothered by a shoulder injury for most of the year but played thru it.

 

He's been the 3rd best 2B in MLB this year, he was terrible in '08, 10th best in '07, and the 4th best in '06. It looks to me that '08 was the fluke.

 

Also, it pushes Fontenot into the role now occupied by Miles.

 

A bench of Fontenot, Fox, Hoffpauir, Hill, Johnson, and Miles becomes much better.

 

I wasn't aware of the shoulder injury last year. That makes me feel better about him.

 

I wouldn't be against Sanchez at the right price.

 

Bell, Marmol, Guzman, Gregg, Marshall, & Ascanio becomes a very good pen and puts Gregg where he should be as the team's 4th or 5th best reliever, which is expected from a solid pen. Have him as the 3rd best and utilize as a closer and it hurts the club, especially compared to someone like Bell.

 

That'd be a very good pen, but what minor leaguers have we given up to get that pen? And if we can only upgrade one time, is the upgrade in the pen really that much more important?

 

I tend to agree with Mojo here - improve the offense and the pen isn't in one run games every time they have a lead. That leads to fewer blown saves.

[UK1679666180]

SD's incentive would be to maximize their younger talent for Bell on a team that has no chance of winning anytime soon, I expect him to get around 4 mil next year.

 

It'd be worth a call, for sure, but I suspect they'd ask for well more than we should pay for that kind of upgrade.

 

As far as Sanchez, he was bothered by a shoulder injury for most of the year but played thru it.

 

He's been the 3rd best 2B in MLB this year, he was terrible in '08, 10th best in '07, and the 4th best in '06. It looks to me that '08 was the fluke.

 

Also, it pushes Fontenot into the role now occupied by Miles.

 

A bench of Fontenot, Fox, Hoffpauir, Hill, Johnson, and Miles becomes much better.

 

I wasn't aware of the shoulder injury last year. That makes me feel better about him.

 

I wouldn't be against Sanchez at the right price.

 

Bell, Marmol, Guzman, Gregg, Marshall, & Ascanio becomes a very good pen and puts Gregg where he should be as the team's 4th or 5th best reliever, which is expected from a solid pen. Have him as the 3rd best and utilize as a closer and it hurts the club, especially compared to someone like Bell.

 

That'd be a very good pen, but what minor leaguers have we given up to get that pen? And if we can only upgrade one time, is the upgrade in the pen really that much more important?

 

I tend to agree with Mojo here - improve the offense and the pen isn't in one run games every time they have a lead. That leads to fewer blown saves.

 

What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around.

 

If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary.

 

The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer.

 

Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have.

 

At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

[dew1679666265]

What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around.

 

If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary.

 

The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer.

 

Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have.

 

At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

 

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him.

 

I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads.

[UK1679666180]

What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around.

 

If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary.

 

The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer.

 

Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have.

 

At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

 

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him.

 

I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads.

 

Gregg has been avg. at best though throughout his career, he's been nothing better than a 3rd or 4th option out of the pen in critical situations. Bell has been a #1 option out of the pen 2 of the last 3 years with him being a #2 option last year. Bell would be a difference maker, IMO.

 

Right now, Bell has prevented almost 13 more runs from scoring than Gregg over an avg. reliever. That's significant and definitely a difference maker.

[dew1679666265]

What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around.

 

If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary.

 

The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer.

 

Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have.

 

At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

 

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him.

 

I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads.

 

Gregg has been avg. at best though throughout his career, he's been nothing better than a 3rd or 4th option out of the pen in critical situations. Bell has been a #1 option out of the pen 2 of the last 3 years with him being a #2 option last year. Bell would be a difference maker, IMO.

 

Right now, Bell has prevented almost 13 more runs from scoring than Gregg over an avg. reliever. That's significant and definitely a difference maker.

 

Bell has been pretty awesome this year. Any idea why his numbers were down last year? It definitely looks like an anomaly as it's right between two awesome years, but it kinda sticks out.

 

Also, how much is he affected by PetCo? I wouldn't think enough to make a radical difference in his numbers, but it'd be nice to know.

[Vanilla Ice]

Also, there is no way in hell Heilman gets four more save opportunities the rest of the season.

 

He might. Blown saves can happen in either the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings. I believe 3 of Heilman's 4 blown saves so far were before the 9th inning.

 

Besides, two of Heilman's 4 blown saves are really Gregg and Marmol's fault anyway. The 5/16 game (where Gregg left with a 4-2 lead, bases loaded and nobody out) and the 06/07 game against the Reds (where Marmol left him with runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out) were both games that Heilman got charged with the blown save because the runners scored on his watch, but he really didn't pitch badly in either outing.

Wow, for some reason I had no idea that a save could be blown in the 7th or 8th innings.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll admit I'm scared of giving up fair market value for Petco relievers. It changes your entire pitching philosophy being able to go at guys knowing that nobody hits HRs there.

[UK1679666180]

What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around.

 

If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary.

 

The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer.

 

Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have.

 

At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

 

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him.

 

I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads.

 

Gregg has been avg. at best though throughout his career, he's been nothing better than a 3rd or 4th option out of the pen in critical situations. Bell has been a #1 option out of the pen 2 of the last 3 years with him being a #2 option last year. Bell would be a difference maker, IMO.

 

Right now, Bell has prevented almost 13 more runs from scoring than Gregg over an avg. reliever. That's significant and definitely a difference maker.

 

Bell has been pretty awesome this year. Any idea why his numbers were down last year? It definitely looks like an anomaly as it's right between two awesome years, but it kinda sticks out.

 

Also, how much is he affected by PetCo? I wouldn't think enough to make a radical difference in his numbers, but it'd be nice to know.

 

I don't know why his numbers were down last year, he did pitch poorly on the road last year, he was still a solid #2 reliever last year.

 

In '07, he pitched better on the roadthan at Petco. In '08, as I mentioned he pitched better at home. In '09, he has been amazing on the road and better away from Petco. There's nothing to indicate he's been inflated by pitching at Petco. ARP factors park factors and it's been the primary state behind my argument towards Bell.

 

This year on the road, he's faced 45 hitters and given up 9 hits (1 XBH-DB) and only 1 BB to 12Ks. He's given up more home HRs than road HRs over the last 3 years (5 at home and 3 on the road).

[dew1679666265]

I don't know why his numbers were down last year, he did pitch poorly on the road last year, he was still a solid #2 reliever last year.

 

Explain to me, if you would, what numbers you're focusing on in evaluating the pitchers. I don't see a lot of difference between Bell in 08 and Gregg the past two seasons (07-08). I don't know if I'm looking at something different than you or what, but I'm curious to know what stats you're using.

 

In '07, he pitched better on the roadthan at Petco. In '08, as I mentioned he pitched better at home. In '09, he has been amazing on the road and better away from Petco. There's nothing to indicate he's been inflated by pitching at Petco. ARP factors park factors and it's been the primary state behind my argument towards Bell.

 

This year on the road, he's faced 45 hitters and given up 9 hits (1 XBH-DB) and only 1 BB to 12Ks. He's given up more home HRs than road HRs over the last 3 years (5 at home and 3 on the road).

 

That's heartening that he's done so well on the road. I'm still very concerned the Padres would demand way too much for him, though.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=450948

 

2008 BP Adjusted Runs Prevented: Bell is around 50th overall and Gregg is around 110th.

 

For me, I believe ARP is probably the most effective stat at analyzing how well a reliever has done.

 

ARP=

The number of runs that the reliever prevented over an average pitcher, given the bases/outs situation when he entered and left each game, adjusted for league and park

.

[Guest]

Also, there is no way in hell Heilman gets four more save opportunities the rest of the season.

Remember, you can get a BS outside the 9th.

 

ETA: Shoulda looked, beaten by CCP.

[dew1679666265]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=450948

 

2008 BP Adjusted Runs Prevented: Bell is around 50th overall and Gregg is around 110th.

 

For me, I believe ARP is probably the most effective stat at analyzing how well a reliever has done.

 

ARP=

The number of runs that the reliever prevented over an average pitcher, given the bases/outs situation when he entered and left each game, adjusted for league and park

.

 

Interesting thanks. I had never really heard of that stat before.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Even though Gregg is not horrible, I will never feel comfortable with him on the mound. He just seems hittable.