Revised Cubs Top 10

[jersey cubs fan]

am I missing something here?

[Guest]

Wait, what's going on?

[TruffleShuffle]

am I missing something here?

 

[chattbaseball]

I think in people's minds Burke is "old" simply because he's been around since 2006. But as I've said before, he came from a low caliber of baseball area in Chattanooga, TN...he played high school baseball using an aluminum bat where you can hit a lot of HRs if you've got power and sub-par pitching. He skipped college, and entered pro ball way over his head. He's struggled at times, but he has stayed focused on his ultimate goal - to get better each year and to ultimately make it to the big leagues. Each time he has struggled, he's still shown potential that we all hope will develop into a big league prospect. He's a student of the game, always looking to improve. And from knowing him, I would bet my yearly salary that there are few players in Minor League Baseball that have the work ethic he does.

 

On a different note, I just think it's great that our system actually has some prospects to talk about! It's good that there is discussion and controversy over who should be in the top 10!!! :shock:

[Guest]

am I missing something here?

 

 

Wow, I completely missed that.

[jame.gumb]

am I missing something here?

 

 

Winner.

 

I think of Gundy's rant anytime anyone talks about downgrading a person.

[jersey cubs fan]

am I missing something here?

 

 

You know, that had a certain, "I'M A MAN, I'M 40!!!" vibe to it.

[Outshined_One]

am I missing something here?

 

 

One of my all-time favorite rants.

[TruffleShuffle]

am I missing something here?

 

 

One of my all-time favorite rants.

 

THAT'S NOT TRUE

[Outshined_One]

am I missing something here?

 

 

One of my all-time favorite rants.

 

THAT'S NOT TRUE

 

THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rzdB5a4kLAo/SaiIgrfAoiI/AAAAAAAANQo/QlRyydG82XI/s400/WAH.jpg

[Outshined_One]

But seriously, I'll cobble together my final list for this season after the AFL. I want to see how Castro, Vitters, and Cashner do there.

[jame.gumb]

THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rzdB5a4kLAo/SaiIgrfAoiI/AAAAAAAANQo/QlRyydG82XI/s400/WAH.jpg

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wRxWcsi4XM: Nooooooooooooo, for the win.

[toonsterwu]

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. I've taken my fair share of shots at Colvin, more out of frustration than anything. So, I wanted to be positive. I was always fine with the pick, and it seems quite likely that he'll see some time in the bigs. It's not a bad pick folks, and for those that still lament the pick, it's time to move on. Just wish he could be a bit more consistent.

 

You're trying really hard to talk yourself into that one, and in the end you still have nothing positive to say about the player. ;)

 

huh

 

considering the rates at which players make the bigs, saying that I think a guy can make the bigs ... well, I thought that was very positive, particularly considering how much discussion Colvin has engendered. I was a fan of the pick then, and he'll likely make the bigs. Again ... how's that ... not positive?

[toonsterwu]

...

3. Jay Jackson, B. .... His velocity has been reportedly better this year ... that still means he was able to reach back and hit mid-90's). The slider's still there, the change and curve, by most accounts, improved this year. I fully acknowledge that I am a fan, so maybe I have my biases.

 

4. Andrew Cashner, B. I think he's getting a bit of a bad rap, but then again, he has to step it up next year. The peripherals aren't all that great.... With a plus-plus fastball, a potentially plus but inconsistent slider, and a developing change, he's advanced far better than I ever thought he could as a starter. I can certainly buy Cashner over Jackson, as Cashner has the most potential of any arm in our system. .... I anticipate he'll get on the top 100 list for some, and perhaps fall ahead of Jackson for many.....

 

Not to argue the relative merits of these guys. I personally have Cashner ahead of Jackson, but the point of this point isn't to argue the relative merits. [i can certainly track the argument for putting jackson higher: the big-leagues are no different from A+ in that you usually put people away with the breaking ball. It appears that Jackson's slider is superior to any breaking ball that Cashner throws, as is manifested by his much stronger K-rate. it can also be reasoned that he has better control overall. If jackson goes through his career with better control and a much better breaking, he'll end up better. So I'm not really contesting your relative ranking.]

 

My point is that your discussion of these two does not address a most important characteristic for them, or for any pitcher: the propensity to allow HR's. I don't have numbers, but I believe around half (perhaps more) of the run scored in the major leagues score via the HR. And in this regard I think Cashner and Jackson are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Cashner has allowed one HR this season, I believe in his first game; jackson has allowed 11.

 

I understand that HR's come in small quantities, so it's possible that with such small samples that predicting future can be difficult. But it appears that Jackson is unusually HR-vulnerable, and Cashner is unusually HR-resistence.

 

I don't claim to know why. Perhaps it's that Cashner's fastball is not only typically faster but it has more tail to it, so that minor leaguers just can't drive his fastball. Perhaps Jackson's is straighter, or less consistently fast. Very possibly it's a reflection of Jackson's personality, so that he sometimes loses focus and lays in some mashable strikes. More likely it's that that Cashner lives heavily on the fastball, whereas jackson throws a lot more breaking balls. That's great for strikeouts (some of the good ones are unhittable), But if he's throwing 15 more breaking balls per start than Cashner, that's 15 more opportunities to hang one and get it drilled. Scouts talk up the good breaking balls, but the same guy who throws 20 really beautiful deadly breaking pitches in a game can still throw 5 hangers, one or two of which get drilled. From this view, it's well possible that next year, when Carpenter starts the year healthy and is another year older and more accustomed to handling a workload, that they'll push him to throw more breaking balls; if so, perhaps his HR-rate will rise, too. Perhaps it's because jackson is more aggressive and willing to challenge hitters with strikes, and would rather challenge a guy with a fastball down the middle than walk him. That could jive with why his pitch-count-per-inning is better than Cashner's, and his walk-rate lower.

 

But whatever the underlying cause, in general a guy's tendency to allow HR's is somewhat characteristic, and Cashner looks like he's plus-plus in that aspect, whereas jackson looks like he's no better than average and possibly something of a minus in that regard.

 

When I ranked Cashner higher, that was part of my reasoning. (The better fastball, not only velocity-wise but action-wise also factored in, as did personality/character/commitment/coachability factors.)

 

I don't disagree with any of that. In my season end write up, I would've gotten into that. I just posted a quick thing on Miles' blog and tried to add some comments onto that. I think Cashner generates better late movement on his fastball, although all the reasons you've stated are fair when discussing the HR differences between the two. I anticipate that, over an extended period, Jackson may run into some problems in AAA due to HR's (though the control will make or break him).

 

I can certainly buy Cashner higher, and I've also acknowledged that I like Jackson and have my biases there. In fact, I anticipate Cashner to rank higher on most season end lists.

[jersey cubs fan]

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. I've taken my fair share of shots at Colvin, more out of frustration than anything. So, I wanted to be positive. I was always fine with the pick, and it seems quite likely that he'll see some time in the bigs. It's not a bad pick folks, and for those that still lament the pick, it's time to move on. Just wish he could be a bit more consistent.

 

You're trying really hard to talk yourself into that one, and in the end you still have nothing positive to say about the player. ;)

 

huh

 

considering the rates at which players make the bigs, saying that I think a guy can make the bigs ... well, I thought that was very positive, particularly considering how much discussion Colvin has engendered. I was a fan of the pick then, and he'll likely make the bigs. Again ... how's that ... not positive?

 

He was a first round draft pick coming out of a big college, just making the bigs isn't much of an accomplishment and it does not make it a fine pick. Luis Montanez has seen the big leagues, doesn't make him a good pick.

[craig]

1. On Burke. I know his age. But I do think that a guy who's had several years as a full-time professional baseball player with full-time professional coaches can often be likely to be more advanced than an equal-aged kid who's been going to a small college with a fraction of the coaching and a fraction of the game experience. I have him #9 on my list, so it's not like I don't very, very much appreciate his potential. I like him a lot, and think the season he's had is rather astonishing. My concern is with his K's. He's always been a K-guy, and even this year he still K'd a lot. So even though his age is young, he's had the opportunity for three seasons to face this level of pitching and adjust to it. But there are apparently still an awful lot of pitches that he's missing and that are going for strikeouts. He's always K'd; he hasn't always hit for average. My hope at this point is that he has improved and adjusted enough; his K's aren't bad at all this year in the context of his high walks, his HR's, and his slugging. Obviously he's made some adjustments and improved, otherwise he wouldn't be hitting .300 with a .400+ OBP, a .500+ slugging, and a .900+ OPS in a season that began before his 21st birthday. But I think anytime a guy K's that much, especially at such low levels of competition, I always wonder if there are some holes in his swing that will get increasingly exploited at higher levels.

Summary: I think Burke is a really interesting and appealing prospect if he can sustain the kind of production he showed this year into the future. If I'm cautious about buzzing him too much, it's because of the K's. And given that he's been in the pros long enough to suggest that his K-thing is a persistent reality with him makes me hesitant to assume it won't be a persistent limiter into the future.

 

2. On Colvin: I actually put him #10 on my list. Just getting into the majors, ala Luis Montanez, agree that isn't that good of an accomplishment. Even that, though, is not automatic for a #14 pick in what was viewed as a weak draft. I think he's going to become a major leaguer, not just a guys whose big-league experience consists of one or two September callups. How good will he be? I don't know. But I don't think it's that unusual for a #11 guy in toonster's list to have some questions associated. If there's no question about whether you'll make it at all, and no limits to your ceiling, you aren't hanging around down at the #11 spot. You're down there because either your ceiling is somewhat limited or your probability of approaching your perceived ceiling has some limits.

 

Colvin slugged over .500 at age 23 in AA, and hit plenty of HR's, and hit .300, and OPSed at .859. At age 23 in AA, that's very good. Having been injured last year and coming off surgery this spring, that's perhaps especially impressive. It's possible that 2nd-half Colvin much better reflects what healthy Colvin is than the guy we saw last year and early this year at Daytona. Was the recent slugging high-average Colvin a fluke, or the guy we'll see into the future? I don't know for sure. If it's fairly representative of future Colvin, he's got a chance to make a lot of money as a starting big-league outfielder. He's got two more steps to go, so maybe the one or the other will kill him. But when a youngish guy is hitting .300 and slugging .524 in the Southern League, and plays acceptably in RF, I don't see why it's a stretch to rank him #11 or #10. Yes, his low walks/plate discipline are a weakness. If he walked 12% of his AB's with his numbers otherwise the same, there would be zero question about ranking him #11 or higher. We'll see whether that kills him or not.

[Serge]

Burke didn't really K that much this year though. 17.8% on the year, which isn't a lot, especially for a guy with power and who walks a lot. And in the 2nd half it was a little less than that(as well as with the BB's way up too). I agree it's something to worry about, but I think that's more because it was such a horrible problem the past two years, not because of anything from this year.

[jersey cubs fan]

Burke didn't really K that much this year though. 17.8% on the year, which isn't a lot, especially for a guy with power and who walks a lot. And in the 2nd half it was a little less than that(as well as with the BB's way up too). I agree it's something to worry about, but I think that's more because it was such a horrible problem the past two years, not because of anything from this year.

 

 

Burke and Colvin struck out at about the same rate, right? And Burke did it while walking a whole lot more, which is much more acceptable.

[CubsWin]

All I know is that I love following the Cubs minor leaguers, pay very close attention and certainly have an opinion as to who I like, but after reading craig's posts and some other's on this subject, I clearly lack the expertise to have any top ten list I might produce matter one hill of beans.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ive never seen Castro of Lee in action, so what current players would the compare with most offensively, ceiling wise? Judging from the stats Ive seen, Im going to guees that Castro would be a Chone Figgens type with Lee measuring up to Brian Roberts.

[davell]

I'm thinking that Castro will grow into some power personally. I could see him as a 15-20 homer guy once he finishes filling out. Roberts seems like a decent comp for Lee numbers-wise. Jimmy Rollins, who Meph used, may not be a bad comp for Castro. Of course, these are the high ends and not the lows. But, I know I'm excited about both of them.

[TruffleShuffle]

frankly i don't think rollins is a great comp. i don't see castro ever having as much speed or power as rollins, and castro has a really heavy GB/FB ratio - rollins has always been pretty close to neutral. early in his career it really diminished his value because he popped out way more than he should have.

 

i like the renteria comps.

[Serge]

frankly i don't think rollins is a great comp. i don't see castro ever having as much speed or power as rollins, and castro has a really heavy GB/FB ratio - rollins has always been pretty close to neutral. early in his career it really diminished his value because he popped out way more than he should have.

 

i like the renteria comps.

 

Hopefully he's more STL and ATL Renteria and less other places Renteria. .295/.350/.430 with good defense at SS would be awesome.

[toonsterwu]

Ive never seen Castro of Lee in action, so what current players would the compare with most offensively, ceiling wise? Judging from the stats Ive seen, Im going to guees that Castro would be a Chone Figgens type with Lee measuring up to Brian Roberts.

 

I don't think about comps that much, so I'll ponder it some, but I think Lee would likely be closer to Figgins than Castro, and that Castro would likely be closer to Roberts than Lee (again, not comparing them, as I haven't pondered it all that much ... ), at least, relative to offensive ability. Most expectations are for Castro to develop some pop down the line, as he physically matures.

[sandbergcubs]

 

14. Ryan Searle, C+. Good sink, particularly for the size, and he's likely to get better.

 

 

 

does anyone else think searle could be a right hand specialist :?:

 

.320 average against lefties and twice as many walks in half the innings not to mention the GO/AO