Lee pulled from the game with soreness of some kind

[UMFan83]

The Cubs did pretty well last year without a major league quality 1b for 5 months, I think they could live with Lee going down for a bit this year.

 

Yep because we were getting above average quality Major League production at 2B, C, CF. For at least two of those positions, the jury is still out on how they will perform. Plus although Lee wasn't giving us adequate offensive production, he still gives us presumably much better defense at first than Hoff would.

 

Neither Fontenot, Soto, nor Johnson have shown us any indication that they wont be able to produce this season.

 

My point is that DeRosa having a .860 OPS and Edmonds doing what he did was giving the Cubs above average production at lesser offensive positions negating the fact that Lee was one of the worst offensive 1B for a large part of last year. There is no indication that their replacements won't produce, but will they produce as well as the numbers they are replacing to offset a Lee injury or ineffectiveness?

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cubs did pretty well last year without a major league quality 1b for 5 months, I think they could live with Lee going down for a bit this year.

 

Yep because we were getting above average quality Major League production at 2B, C, CF. For at least two of those positions, the jury is still out on how they will perform. Plus although Lee wasn't giving us adequate offensive production, he still gives us presumably much better defense at first than Hoff would.

 

Neither Fontenot, Soto, nor Johnson have shown us any indication that they wont be able to produce this season.

 

You don't think there's a reasonable chance that Fontenot and Fukudome/Johnson don't match the production we got from 2B and CF last year? Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

[Outshined_One]

Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

 

Blasphemy!

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs did pretty well last year without a major league quality 1b for 5 months, I think they could live with Lee going down for a bit this year.

 

Yep because we were getting above average quality Major League production at 2B, C, CF. For at least two of those positions, the jury is still out on how they will perform. Plus although Lee wasn't giving us adequate offensive production, he still gives us presumably much better defense at first than Hoff would.

 

Neither Fontenot, Soto, nor Johnson have shown us any indication that they wont be able to produce this season.

 

You don't think there's a reasonable chance that Fontenot and Fukudome/Johnson don't match the production we got from 2B and CF last year? Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

 

The point is Lee's health isn't the determining factor. He was healthy, and sucked last year. If he's unhealthy, and doesn't play as much, that's not going to be the difference between the Cubs succeeding and the Cubs struggling. Other positions are far more important.

[Guest]

The Cubs did pretty well last year without a major league quality 1b for 5 months, I think they could live with Lee going down for a bit this year.

 

Yep because we were getting above average quality Major League production at 2B, C, CF. For at least two of those positions, the jury is still out on how they will perform. Plus although Lee wasn't giving us adequate offensive production, he still gives us presumably much better defense at first than Hoff would.

 

Neither Fontenot, Soto, nor Johnson have shown us any indication that they wont be able to produce this season.

 

You don't think there's a reasonable chance that Fontenot and Fukudome/Johnson don't match the production we got from 2B and CF last year? Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

 

The point is Lee's health isn't the determining factor. He was healthy, and sucked last year. If he's unhealthy, and doesn't play as much, that's not going to be the difference between the Cubs succeeding and the Cubs struggling. Other positions are far more important.

With the way this team is configured, if Lee can't produce at slightly above average the Cubs are in trouble. The only caveat to this is if Huffpauir fills in and does well, it won't matter much.

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cubs did pretty well last year without a major league quality 1b for 5 months, I think they could live with Lee going down for a bit this year.

 

Yep because we were getting above average quality Major League production at 2B, C, CF. For at least two of those positions, the jury is still out on how they will perform. Plus although Lee wasn't giving us adequate offensive production, he still gives us presumably much better defense at first than Hoff would.

 

Neither Fontenot, Soto, nor Johnson have shown us any indication that they wont be able to produce this season.

 

You don't think there's a reasonable chance that Fontenot and Fukudome/Johnson don't match the production we got from 2B and CF last year? Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

 

The point is Lee's health isn't the determining factor. He was healthy, and sucked last year. If he's unhealthy, and doesn't play as much, that's not going to be the difference between the Cubs succeeding and the Cubs struggling. Other positions are far more important.

 

Well, I wasn't really addressing that point. I was speaking to WSR's statement that implied we should seem the same level of production from C, 2B, and CF as we did in '08.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs are anything but screwed if Lee is hurt for a while or isn't above average offensively. That's the benefit of having at least 5 guys who are projected to OPS in the .850+ range. If you lose one of them or one of them disappoints, you aren't as hurt as if Pujols goes down for 2 months or something. Especially if that position is 1B and has the best replacement in terms of projected production. Now if Lee's hand falls off and Hoffpauir OPS's .700 for 2 months it obviously will hurt, but it doesn't sink the team by any stretch of the imagination. They'd still be the odds on favorite to win the central and a very strong favorite to make the playoffs.

[Guest]

The Cubs are anything but screwed if Lee is hurt for a while or isn't above average offensively. That's the benefit of having at least 5 guys who are projected to OPS in the .850+ range. If you lose one of them or one of them disappoints, you aren't as hurt as if Pujols goes down for 2 months or something. Especially if that position is 1B and has the best replacement in terms of projected production. Now if Lee's hand falls off and Hoffpauir OPS's .700 for 2 months it obviously will hurt, but it doesn't sink the team by any stretch of the imagination. They'd still be the odds on favorite to win the central and a very strong favorite to make the playoffs.

You think you can count on Bradley to play a full season? Something he's done exactly once when he was 24. Both Soriano and Aramis have spent time on the DL in the last few seasons. The other guy you are counting on OPSing 850+ is a catcher, last year there were exactly three (in 2007 there were 2) who put up those numbers, fortunately one of them was Soto, but he's no lock to do it again. Last year the Cubs got remarkable (lucky) production out of CF an 2nd. They'll not likely see that again this year. If Lee can't play and Hoffpauir doesn't cut it the Cubs are in trouble.

[cubbinalltheway]

of course it's possible, but i think it's silly to think that soto might regress this year. he'll likely improve, not regress.

[Tracer Bullet]

of course it's possible, but i think it's silly to think that soto might regress this year. he'll likely improve, not regress.

 

It's silly to think he might regress? So it's silly to be anything other than absolutely certain that he'll at least match his numbers from last year? Am I reading that correctly?

[UMFan83]

Not to mention the possibility that Soto regresses a bit this year.

 

Blasphemy!

 

I know...he completely misspelled "gets even more awesome" and somehow confused the words "possibility" and "certainty"

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are anything but screwed if Lee is hurt for a while or isn't above average offensively. That's the benefit of having at least 5 guys who are projected to OPS in the .850+ range. If you lose one of them or one of them disappoints, you aren't as hurt as if Pujols goes down for 2 months or something. Especially if that position is 1B and has the best replacement in terms of projected production. Now if Lee's hand falls off and Hoffpauir OPS's .700 for 2 months it obviously will hurt, but it doesn't sink the team by any stretch of the imagination. They'd still be the odds on favorite to win the central and a very strong favorite to make the playoffs.

You think you can count on Bradley to play a full season? Something he's done exactly once when he was 24. Both Soriano and Aramis have spent time on the DL in the last few seasons. The other guy you are counting on OPSing 850+ is a catcher, last year there were exactly three (in 2007 there were 2) who put up those numbers, fortunately one of them was Soto, but he's no lock to do it again. Last year the Cubs got remarkable (lucky) production out of CF an 2nd. They'll not likely see that again this year. If Lee can't play and Hoffpauir doesn't cut it the Cubs are in trouble.

 

Considering Bradley is essentially replacing Edmonds, he doesn't have to play a full season to help improve the team.

 

Lee didn't cut it last year, and the Cubs coasted. If Hoffpauir has to play 100 games and he's a 600 OPS player, that's a problem, but I don't think either situation is all that likely.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are screwed if Soto misses a good chunk of time or somehow regresses. They are screwed if Ramirez misses half the season or if Bradley can't make it through April. But they aren't screwed if Lee has to give way to Hoffpauir for a while.

[cubbinalltheway]

of course it's possible, but i think it's silly to think that soto might regress this year. he'll likely improve, not regress.

 

It's silly to think he might regress? So it's silly to be anything other than absolutely certain that he'll at least match his numbers from last year? Am I reading that correctly?

youre reading it literally. what i meant, and i guess i couldve been more clear, was that it's silly to operate on the assumption that he could be worse (not that you were). when talking about predicting the success of the 2009 cubs, i think it's pretty safe to assume that your 26 year old second year catcher is going to improve on his rookie campaign.

[jersey cubs fan]

of course it's possible, but i think it's silly to think that soto might regress this year. he'll likely improve, not regress.

 

It's silly to think he might regress? So it's silly to be anything other than absolutely certain that he'll at least match his numbers from last year? Am I reading that correctly?

youre reading it literally. what i meant, and i guess i couldve been more clear, was that it's silly to operate on the assumption that he could be worse (not that you were). when talking about predicting the success of the 2009 cubs, i think it's pretty safe to assume that your 26 year old second year catcher is going to improve on his rookie campaign.

 

I think it would be rather irresponsible to operate on the assumption that your rookie of the year couldn't take a step back in year 2.

[Tracer Bullet]

of course it's possible, but i think it's silly to think that soto might regress this year. he'll likely improve, not regress.

 

It's silly to think he might regress? So it's silly to be anything other than absolutely certain that he'll at least match his numbers from last year? Am I reading that correctly?

youre reading it literally. what i meant, and i guess i couldve been more clear, was that it's silly to operate on the assumption that he could be worse (not that you were). when talking about predicting the success of the 2009 cubs, i think it's pretty safe to assume that your 26 year old second year catcher is going to improve on his rookie campaign.

 

I think it would be rather irresponsible to operate on the assumption that your rookie of the year couldn't take a step back in year 2.

 

Exactly. Of all the people who have come up and been productive in their first year (esp to the degree that Soto was last season), I imagine many continue to improve, many stay roughly the same, and many regress (slightly or worse). I have no idea what the percentages are and frankly don't care. But it's certainly reasonable to think Soto could regress to some degree in '09.

[biittner77]

The fact is that it's probably more likely that Soto gets worse than gets better if those are the only choices.

[Guest]

With the way this team is configured, if Lee can't produce at slightly above average the Cubs are in trouble. The only caveat to this is if Huffpauir fills in and does well, it won't matter much.

 

Lee was below average for a 1Bman last year. He was ninth in OPS out of 11 qualified in the NL and 15th out of 23 in the ML. They got below average production for the position last year and were fine.

[Guest]

Care to explain the reasons behind your stance?

 

do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt?

 

We weren't talking about Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano or anyone on the pitching staff like Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano or any other player/position on the roster. We were specifically talking about first base, Derrek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir.

 

Obviously other guys could and probably will get hurt, but you specifically singled out 1B/Lee/Hoffpauir and said if Hoffpauir is our starting 1B man (i.e. Lee is hurt) we're screwed.

 

If you wanted to bring other players into the mix, you should have added that. Not to mention that even if Lee gets hurt, it's not a lock that he's hurt at the same time as anyone else on the team.

 

The health of Derrek Lee isn't going to make our break our season.

 

Actually, you said we'd be fine without Lee, if ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. There's a good chance that each of those players will miss a significant chunk of the season, so it's fair to not accept your premise.

 

I'm pretty sure the Cubs could survive for a while with Lee out if Ramirez, Soriano, Bradley and Soto are all healthy.

 

I meant that if they're healthy at the same time that Lee is hurt, i.e. not having two bats injured at the same time. If Lee gets hurt and misses April and May but those other guys are all healthy in April and May, the Cubs will be fine.

 

And the general point still stands - Lee's health will not be the determining factor in how the season goes.

[Guest]

Care to explain the reasons behind your stance?

 

do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt?

 

We weren't talking about Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano or anyone on the pitching staff like Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano or any other player/position on the roster. We were specifically talking about first base, Derrek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir.

 

Obviously other guys could and probably will get hurt, but you specifically singled out 1B/Lee/Hoffpauir and said if Hoffpauir is our starting 1B man (i.e. Lee is hurt) we're screwed.

 

If you wanted to bring other players into the mix, you should have added that. Not to mention that even if Lee gets hurt, it's not a lock that he's hurt at the same time as anyone else on the team.

 

The health of Derrek Lee isn't going to make our break our season.

 

Actually, you said we'd be fine without Lee, if ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. There's a good chance that each of those players will miss a significant chunk of the season, so it's fair to not accept your premise.

 

I'm pretty sure the Cubs could survive for a while with Lee out if Ramirez, Soriano, Bradley and Soto are all healthy.

 

I meant that if they're healthy at the same time that Lee is hurt, i.e. not having two bats injured at the same time. If Lee gets hurt and misses April and May but those other guys are all healthy in April and May, the Cubs will be fine.

 

And the general point still stands - Lee's health will not be the determining factor in how the season goes.

No it doesn't stand. Last year is last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

Care to explain the reasons behind your stance?

 

do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt?

 

We weren't talking about Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano or anyone on the pitching staff like Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano or any other player/position on the roster. We were specifically talking about first base, Derrek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir.

 

Obviously other guys could and probably will get hurt, but you specifically singled out 1B/Lee/Hoffpauir and said if Hoffpauir is our starting 1B man (i.e. Lee is hurt) we're screwed.

 

If you wanted to bring other players into the mix, you should have added that. Not to mention that even if Lee gets hurt, it's not a lock that he's hurt at the same time as anyone else on the team.

 

The health of Derrek Lee isn't going to make our break our season.

 

Actually, you said we'd be fine without Lee, if ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. There's a good chance that each of those players will miss a significant chunk of the season, so it's fair to not accept your premise.

 

I'm pretty sure the Cubs could survive for a while with Lee out if Ramirez, Soriano, Bradley and Soto are all healthy.

 

I meant that if they're healthy at the same time that Lee is hurt, i.e. not having two bats injured at the same time. If Lee gets hurt and misses April and May but those other guys are all healthy in April and May, the Cubs will be fine.

 

And the general point still stands - Lee's health will not be the determining factor in how the season goes.

No it doesn't stand. Last year is last year.

 

True, if the health problem he has is some sort of infectious disease that manages to take out the actual good players on the team, it could be a problem.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs are anything but screwed if Lee is hurt for a while or isn't above average offensively. That's the benefit of having at least 5 guys who are projected to OPS in the .850+ range. If you lose one of them or one of them disappoints, you aren't as hurt as if Pujols goes down for 2 months or something. Especially if that position is 1B and has the best replacement in terms of projected production. Now if Lee's hand falls off and Hoffpauir OPS's .700 for 2 months it obviously will hurt, but it doesn't sink the team by any stretch of the imagination. They'd still be the odds on favorite to win the central and a very strong favorite to make the playoffs.

You think you can count on Bradley to play a full season? Something he's done exactly once when he was 24. Both Soriano and Aramis have spent time on the DL in the last few seasons. The other guy you are counting on OPSing 850+ is a catcher, last year there were exactly three (in 2007 there were 2) who put up those numbers, fortunately one of them was Soto, but he's no lock to do it again. Last year the Cubs got remarkable (lucky) production out of CF an 2nd. They'll not likely see that again this year. If Lee can't play and Hoffpauir doesn't cut it the Cubs are in trouble.

 

Okay, so if the Cubs get below expected production from over half their lineup, they're in trouble.

[Guest]

Care to explain the reasons behind your stance?

 

do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt?

 

We weren't talking about Milton Bradley or Alfonso Soriano or anyone on the pitching staff like Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano or any other player/position on the roster. We were specifically talking about first base, Derrek Lee and Micah Hoffpauir.

 

Obviously other guys could and probably will get hurt, but you specifically singled out 1B/Lee/Hoffpauir and said if Hoffpauir is our starting 1B man (i.e. Lee is hurt) we're screwed.

 

If you wanted to bring other players into the mix, you should have added that. Not to mention that even if Lee gets hurt, it's not a lock that he's hurt at the same time as anyone else on the team.

 

The health of Derrek Lee isn't going to make our break our season.

 

Actually, you said we'd be fine without Lee, if ARam, Bradley, and Soriano are all healthy. There's a good chance that each of those players will miss a significant chunk of the season, so it's fair to not accept your premise.

 

I'm pretty sure the Cubs could survive for a while with Lee out if Ramirez, Soriano, Bradley and Soto are all healthy.

 

I meant that if they're healthy at the same time that Lee is hurt, i.e. not having two bats injured at the same time. If Lee gets hurt and misses April and May but those other guys are all healthy in April and May, the Cubs will be fine.

 

And the general point still stands - Lee's health will not be the determining factor in how the season goes.

No it doesn't stand. Last year is last year.

 

True, if the health problem he has is some sort of infectious disease that manages to take out the actual good players on the team, it could be a problem.

Yes, and counting on everything to go as planned is one of the big reasons the Cubs haven't won a WS in 100 years. The Cubs are going to need Lee to produce if they plan on winning b/c Bradley, Soriano, and Soto are no locks to stay healthy and/or produce at high enough levels to do without Lee. Having Huffpauir certainly makes me feel better about the situation, though.

[Guest]

The Cubs are anything but screwed if Lee is hurt for a while or isn't above average offensively. That's the benefit of having at least 5 guys who are projected to OPS in the .850+ range. If you lose one of them or one of them disappoints, you aren't as hurt as if Pujols goes down for 2 months or something. Especially if that position is 1B and has the best replacement in terms of projected production. Now if Lee's hand falls off and Hoffpauir OPS's .700 for 2 months it obviously will hurt, but it doesn't sink the team by any stretch of the imagination. They'd still be the odds on favorite to win the central and a very strong favorite to make the playoffs.

You think you can count on Bradley to play a full season? Something he's done exactly once when he was 24. Both Soriano and Aramis have spent time on the DL in the last few seasons. The other guy you are counting on OPSing 850+ is a catcher, last year there were exactly three (in 2007 there were 2) who put up those numbers, fortunately one of them was Soto, but he's no lock to do it again. Last year the Cubs got remarkable (lucky) production out of CF an 2nd. They'll not likely see that again this year. If Lee can't play and Hoffpauir doesn't cut it the Cubs are in trouble.

 

Okay, so if the Cubs get below expected production from over half their lineup, they're in trouble.

That's not what I said at all.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, and counting on everything to go as planned is one of the big reasons the Cubs haven't won a WS in 100 years. The Cubs are going to need Lee to produce if they plan on winning b/c Bradley, Soriano, and Soto are no locks to stay healthy and/or produce at high enough levels to do without Lee. Having Huffpauir certainly makes me feel better about the situation, though.

 

They won without him producing last year. I just don't see how they need him to produce this year if they are going to win as a team. Obviously one would hope he improves a little bit from last year's production. I don't want him to miss the season. But if last year's team thrived despite Lee "not showing up" for 5 months, I think this years team could likely survive if Hoffpauir has to replace him for a month or two.