2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

[Derwood]

Want to let everyone know that the tiebreaker question is WHEN will be Lou's first ejection, not HOW MANY ejections he'll have. Please go back and edit your entry before the deadline.

[TruffleShuffle]

1. Number of Cubs wins, 2009

88

 

3. Number of runs scored, 2009

875

 

4. Number of runs allowed, 2009

650

 

16.4 wins below their pyth... yikes

[TruffleShuffle]

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

[Southpaw191679666239]

As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.

[NCCubFan]

As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.

Me too. I care about them winning 11 games after Oct. 4.

[Andy]

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.

[TruffleShuffle]

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.

 

by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

[Guest]

As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.

Me too. I care about them winning 11 games after Oct. 4.

 

Assuming there are no makeup games or one game playoffs, of course.

[Mike Aller]

My predictions lie pretty heavily one Bradley or Harden not getting injured (for any great length). It's ballsy.

[CubbieBum]

My predictions lie pretty heavily one Bradley or Harden not getting injured (for any great length). It's ballsy.

 

Well I finished fourth last year so I will keep with my strategy which is to pick on a whim for everything.

 

 

This is off the topic but the guy in Aller's sig in the first row all the way to the left has to be the shortest guy to ever attend a NBA game.

[Derwood]

oh crap, i didn't even figure out my pythag. I ought to look into that...

 

EDIT: I was only 3 games under, which is within a reasonable margin

[Andy]

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.

 

by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

I have us at +153 in runs and +16 in wins. Am I missing something?

[TruffleShuffle]

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.

 

by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

I have us at +153 in runs and +16 in wins. Am I missing something?

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/4/3/c/43c198866d56f1677288399f3908934e.png

 

plug in the numbers, multiply by 162 and see how many wins you've got.

[TruffleShuffle]

now that the deadline has passed, here are the predictions of RS/RA and the pythagorean # of wins, versus the # of wins that each user predicted:

 

 

Rocket - 88 wins, pyth 92.8 wins, -4.8 vs expected

Bob Sanders - 93 wins, pyth 93.5 wins, -0.5 vs expected

Big Shooter - 93 wins, pyth 95.5 wins, -2.5 vs expected

CubbieBum - 93 wins, pyth 101.6 wins, -8.6 vs expected

eb14play2 - 93 wins, pyth 98.5, -5.5 vs expected

sweetpeteman - 92 wins, pyth 97.2, -5.2 vs expected

cubbinalltheway - 94 wins, pyth 98.2, -4.2 vs expected

The Logan - 95 wins, pyth 96.0, -1.0 vs expected

Aramis Fan - 93 wins, pyth 103.3, -10.3 vs expected

Mike Aller - 91 wins, pyth 96.8, -5.8 vs expected

Enn Tea - 93 wins, pyth 96.4, -3.4 vs expected

Butters - 90 wins, pyth 89.4, +0.6 vs expected

NC Cub Fan - 95 wins, pyth 91.3, +3.7 vs expected

Andy - 89 wins, pyth 97.6, -8.6 vs expected

Mark Prior's Calves - 90 wins, pyth 95.5, -5.5 vs expected

mhuber - 92 wins, pyth 94.4, -2.4 vs expected

Shilzzz - 92 wins, pyth 94.9, -2.9 vs expected

moochpuppy - 88 wins, pyth 83.7, +4.3 vs expected

SouthSideRyan - 94 wins, pyth 94.0, same as expected

soccer10k - 92 wins, pyth 93.7, -1.7 vs expected

Vanilla Ice - 91 wins, pyth 94.5, -3.5 vs expected

manbearcub - 90 wins, pyth 89.4, +0.6 vs expected

CliftonHanger - 93 wins, pyth 108.0, -15.0 vs expected

JimSorgi - 89 wins, pyth 93.8, -4.8 vs expected

Roast - 94 wins, pyth 99.7, -5.7 vs expected

karenmac - 93 wins, pyth 94.6, -1.6 vs expected

rawaction - 92 wins, pyth 97.2, -5.2 vs expected

PingHitter - 89 wins, pyth 94.7, -5.7 vs expected

Derwood - 91 wins, pyth 96.0, -5.0 vs expected

Laurens - 90 wins, pyth 102.2, -12.2 vs expected

TruffleShuffle - 93 wins, pyth 93.8, -0.8 vs expected

Southpaw - 88 wins, pyth 104.4, -16.4 vs expected

vance - 95 wins, pyth 94.7, +0.3 vs expected

tinkertini - 90 wins, pyth 104.4, -14.4 vs expected

Mark_R - 91 wins, pyth 89.0, +2.0 vs expected

 

 

overall, the average nsbb pick has the cubs underperforming their pythagorean wins by 4.33. oops.

[Derwood]

I calculated mine at -3, not -5.

[NCCubFan]

I'm one of the optimists. I have them overperforming by 3.7 wins.

[NCCubFan]

I went ahead and locked the entries thread since the deadline has passed.

[Derwood]

I went ahead and locked the entries thread since the deadline has passed.

 

thanks

[TruffleShuffle]

the average NSBB picks:

wins: 91.7

wins over the cards: 9.7

runs scored: 835

runs allowed 680.7

aramis ramirez HR: 29.9

alfonso soriano SB: 20.2

ryan theriot batting average: .2935

milton bradley RBI: 87.3

ryan dempster wins: 14.9

sean marshall ERA: 4.11

carlos zambrano K: 162.1

rich harden IP: 152

[Butterscup1679666578]

wow my pythag is pretty much right on

 

i mean...i calculated that ahead of time.

[UK1679666180]

The bullpen will create the positive pythag. record.

[NCCubFan]

Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.

[Derwood]

Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.

 

doesn't look like many of us are going to be close on anything.

[karenmac]

Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.

 

Woot! That and not totally stinking in the HR Derby almost make up for the crappy seasons my fantasy teams are having :)

[Derwood]

I'll try to get to tallying up people's scores tomorrow (tuesday)