2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Prior4CyYoung]

Remaining Bubble teams

Ohio State

Penn State

Dayton

Arizona

Creighton

Minnesota

Virgina Tech

St. Mary's

San Diego State

Utah State

Maryland

Florida

Auburn

New Mexico

USC

South Carolina

Temple

[bukie]

Ohio State 61 Wisconsin 57

LSU 67 Kentucky 58

Mississippi State 82 South Carolina 68

[Exile on Waveland]

Ohio State 61 Wisconsin 57

LSU 67 Kentucky 58

Mississippi State 82 South Carolina 68

 

Still in, done, done.

[CubbieBum]

We obviously can't but with all the upsets this year we should redo the bracket. Wake looking like they will lose, UCONN, Clemson, Pitt, Oklahoma, Kansas, Xavier ...

[SouthSideRyan]

We obviously can't but with all the upsets this year we should redo the bracket. Wake looking like they will lose, UCONN, Clemson, Pitt, Oklahoma, Kansas, Xavier ...

 

Over the next couple days, I believe we're open to tweaking things, sliding teams up and down. State your case(s).

[ISUCubsFan]

Working on my bubble list, but it kinda hard when half of the list is playing right now. Very intersting day today.

[SouthSideRyan]

New Mexico St. is up 1 on Utah St. with 30 seconds left.

 

Duquesne is up 10 on Dayton with about 2 minutes left.

 

This is bad.

[SouthSideRyan]

Seriously though, USU sucks.

[bukie]

Really, there aren't any more upsets this year than there are in typical years. Overemphasizing conference tournament results is what the actual committee probably does the poorest.

[bukie]

In the game nobody's watching, Auburn defeated Florida 61-58.

[SouthSideRyan]

Florida loses to Auburn, for me that locks the SEC into 2 at larges(1 with a TN/LSU tourney win)

[bukie]

Still an hour to get me your ranked bubble teams. Tomorrow we'll put it all together.

 

As for me...

 

Ohio State

San Diego State

Dayton

Minnesota

Creighton

Utah State

Penn State

St. Mary's

Maryland

Temple

Auburn

Arizona

Virgina Tech

Florida

New Mexico

USC

South Carolina

[ISUCubsFan]

Ohio State

Minnesota

Arizona

Penn State

San Diego State

Maryland

Dayton

St. Mary's

Creighton

South Carolina

Utah State

USC

Virginia Tech

Auburn

Temple

Florida

New Mexico

 

I don't know if I like this list, definitely the hardest one I've done so far. Arizona probably shouldn't be that high, but I can't get past the number of good wins they have. Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington are all huge, and most of the teams behind them have nowhere near that.

 

Other Stuff:

 

I'd put American between Portland State and Cornell on the auto bid list.

Xavier should probably drop a little after today.

I can probably think of a few more tweaks I'd like to make, but those will be clearer tomorrow night.

I don't know if Bukie or someone else posted it earlier, but here's the NCAA seeding guidelines.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ohio St.

SDSU

Maryland

Arizona

Minnesota

PSU

Dayton

Utah St.

St. Mary's

USC

Creighton

Temple

Auburn

VA Tech

Florida

South Carolina

New Mexico

[Coach C]

Oh, and FWIW, I had a feeling the way Baylor was playing yesterday, that they could potentionally upset KU.

 

If Baylor plays like that (which they should had been capable of) they could have easily contend for a NCAA Tourny Dance. If they win out, then they're are in.

 

*cough*

[Coach C]

Here are my thoughts on the current S-Curve:

- I think there was enough gap between UConn and Pitt and Louisville and Memphis that UConn and Pitt should stay as #1 seeds. UNC moves to #1 overall with a win today.

- I have Michigan State as the 4th #1 seed right now already. If they win today, I think that should be cemented. If not, Duke is the next candidate for me.

- None of the 3 seeds are good enough to bump up to a 2 seed except possibly Wake Forest, but they only do that if Memphis doesn't win the C-USA.

- Kansas is still a 3 seed unless two of Florida State, UCLA or Illinois win their conference tournaments.

- Missouri will probably win the Big 12 tournament, but I think their ceiling at this point is just below Kansas, considering they won't have to beat a really good team to win the thing.

- I personally thought Syracuse was overseeded as a 5, so the win last night merely justified putting them there in my opinion.

- West Virginia's position is already influenced by their win yesterday, and a win tonight for them really shouldn't affect their seed.

- If Tennessee or LSU wins the SEC tournament, they probably should get bumped up a bit.

 

Thoughts on the bubble:

- I don't think there's another at-large worthy team in the SEC. South Carolina has a bad, bad resume. Worse than Creighton. Worse than Utah State. Worse than Siena. Heck, worse than New Mexico, who lost last night.

- New Mexico just blew the MWC's last chance at 4 bids last night. I think the other 3 are in at this point no matter the remainder of the outcomes.

- Dayton is likely in at this point, unless they go and lose by 20 to Duquesne.

- I really don't like Maryland's resume (2 good wins all year, 4-8 R/N record, 2 bad losses), but if they make it to the ACC finals by beating Wake and Duke, they're probably in at this rate.

- All the other Big Ten bubble teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota) are likely in even with losses today, barring disastrous outcomes or huge blowouts in their games.

- I personally don't think USC or Temple has enough to get an at-large bid even with a trip to the conference finals, but I added them to the bubble list because they had the most legitimate cases.

- Given all the weak resumes at the bottom of the bubble, I'd be much more apt to reward teams like Utah State, Creighton and Saint Mary's, who did very well in decent conference (with an injury caveat for St. Mary's) than a 7-9/8-10 team from any major conference.

- Arizona I don't like because the common theme of all their good wins was this: home games. They did nothing on the road. They beat Gonzaga in Phoenix. Their only other wins away from home were at the Oregon schools, and neutral wins against Santa Clara and Mississippi Valley State.

 

I would have to respectfully disagree on the KU being a #3 team. They're probably at best, a 4th or 5th seeded team. The loss to Baylor pretty much ruined their chances of securing a 2nd to 3rd seed.

[bukie]

I'll leave the bubble discussion open until tomorrow at noon. Then I'll post a semblance of what the 65 team field looks like at this time.

[SouthSideRyan]

Remaining bubble teams are still to be tabulated, so let's talk the current S-Curve. It's a bit late to make a bunch of tweaks, and by not doing this we probably guard against overweighing the conference tourneys. Anybody have major objections to any of these current placements? I've listed all games that they've played since their placement in these spots on the S curve.

 

1. Pittsburgh (L vs WV 74-60)

2. North Carolina (W vs VT 79-76, vs FSU tomorrow)

3. Connecticut (L vs SYR 127-117 6 OTs)

4. Oklahoma (L vs OSU 71-70)

5. Michigan State (W vs MN 64-56, vs tOSU tomorrow)

6. Louisville (W vs PROV 73-55, W vs NOVA 69-55 vs SYR tomorrow)

7. Duke (W vs BC 66-65, vs MD tomorrow)

8. Memphis (W vs TULANE 51-41, W vs HOU 74-49 vs TULSA tomorrow)

9. Wake Forest (L vs MD 75-64)

10. Kansas (L 71-64 vs Baylor)

11. Washington (W vs STAN 85-73, L vs ASU 75-65)

12. Villanova (W vs MARQ 76-75, L vs LOU 69-55)

13. Missouri (W vs TXTECH 81-60, W vs OSU 67-59, vs BAY tomorrow)

14. Clemson (L vs GA Tech 86-81)

15. UCLA (W 64-53 vs WSU, L vs USC 65-55)

16. Florida State (W vs GT 64-62, vs UNC tomorrow)

17. Xavier (W vs STL 66-47, L vs TEM 55-53)

18. Gonzaga (WCC) (Done)

19. Illinois (W vs MICH 60-50, vs PUR tomorrow)

20. Syracuse (W vs SETON 89-74, W vs CONN 127-117 6 OTs, W vs WV 74-69 OT, vs LOU tomorrow)

21. West Virginia(L vs SYR 74-69)

22. Purdue(W vs PSU 79-65, vs IL tomorrow)

23. Arizona State(W vs WASH 75-65, vs UCLA/USC tomorrow)

24. Marquette(Done)

25. BYU(L vs SDSU 64-62)

26. Texas(L vs BAY 76-70)

27. California(Done)

28. Oklahoma State(L vs MIZZ 67-59)

29. Butler(Done)

30. Utah(W vs WYO 68-55, vs SDSU tomorrow)

31. Tennessee(W vs ALA 86-62, vs AUB tomorrow)

32. Wisconsin(L vs tOSU 61-57)

33. Michigan(L vs IL 60-50)

34. LSU(W vs UK 67-58, vs MISS ST tomorrow)

35. Boston College(L vs DUKE 66-65)

36. Texas A&M (Done)

Edited March 14, 2009 by SouthSideRyan

[CubbieBum]

1. Ohio State (showed they belong by beating Wisconsin)

2. Temple (almost own conference and then beat Xavier in tourny)

3. Maryland (might not be very consistent but they seem to rise in big games and that is what is needed in the tourny)

4. USC (never fully been on but have some good wins and looks like they will upset UCLA)

5. Utah State (I don't care what schedule you play you lose only four games you are worthy unlike Wayne and Garth)

6. Auburn (SEC is awful this year but are 9-1 in last 10 with wins over LSU, Tenn and Florida)

7. SD State (great record and BYU win proves they should be in)

8. Penn State (four wins against Mich St, Purdue and Illinois and an above .500 Big Ten record gets them in)

9. Dayton (great record with a win over Xavier but little else)

10. Minnesota (maybe they should have played someone in non-conference or gone above .500 in conference)

11. New Mexico (loss in tourny hurts but 12-4 conference record could still get them in)

12. South Carolina (in a down year a 10-6 SEC record isn't impressive and got blownout in conference tourny)

13. Florida (are living off of great start; haven't finished like a bubble team should)

14. Virginia Tech (bad finish leaves them out, upset over UNC probably gets them in but alas)

15. St. Mary's (couldn't beat Gonzaga in three tries and no big wins)

16. Creighton (only respectable win was against New Mexico and that was the first game of the season)

17. Arizona (can't be in when you finish 1-5 with first round conference exit)

[ISUCubsFan]

Ohio State

Minnesota

Arizona

Penn State

San Diego State

Maryland

Dayton

 

---Cut Line---

 

St. Mary's

Creighton

Southern California

South Carolina

Utah State

Virginia Tech

Auburn

Temple

Florida

New Mexico

 

Fixed for USC win (almost typed this up too soon, wtf happened there) and to add the theoretical cut line. That assumes that a team already on the S-Curve wins all the BCS+CUSA+MWC titles (36-Gonzaga-8=27, 34-27=7). A10 chaos is already accounted for.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Remaining bubble teams are still to be tabulated, so let's talk the current S-Curve. It's a bit late to make a bunch of tweaks, and by not doing this we probably guard against overweighing the conference tourneys. Anybody have major objections to any of these current placements? I've listed all games that they've played since their placement in these spots on the S curve.

 

1. Pittsburgh (L vs WV 74-60)

2. North Carolina (W vs VT 79-76, vs FSU tomorrow)

3. Connecticut (L vs SYR 127-117 6 OTs)

4. Oklahoma (L vs OSU 71-70)

5. Michigan State (W vs MN 64-56, vs tOSU tomorrow)

6. Louisville (W vs PROV 73-55, W vs NOVA 69-55 vs SYR tomorrow)

7. Duke (W vs BC 66-65, vs MD tomorrow)

8. Memphis (W vs TULANE 51-41, W vs HOU 74-49 vs TULSA tomorrow)

9. Wake Forest (L vs MD 75-64)

10. Kansas (L 71-64 vs Baylor)

11. Washington (W vs STAN 85-73, L vs ASU 75-65)

12. Villanova (W vs MARQ 76-75, L vs LOU 69-55)

13. Missouri (W vs TXTECH 81-60, W vs OSU 67-59, vs BAY tomorrow)

14. Clemson (L vs GA Tech 86-81)

15. UCLA (W 64-53 vs WSU, L vs USC 65-55)

16. Florida State (W vs GT 64-62, vs UNC tomorrow)

17. Xavier (W vs STL 66-47, L vs TEM 55-53)

18. Gonzaga (WCC) (Done)

19. Illinois (W vs MICH 60-50, vs PUR tomorrow)

20. Syracuse (W vs SETON 89-74, W vs CONN 127-117 6 OTs, W vs WV 74-69 OT, vs LOU tomorrow)

21. West Virginia(L vs SYR 74-69)

22. Purdue(W vs PSU 79-65, vs IL tomorrow)

23. Arizona State(W vs WASH 75-65, vs UCLA/USC tomorrow)

24. Marquette(Done)

25. BYU(L vs SDSU 64-62)

26. Texas(L vs BAY 76-70)

27. California(Done)

28. Oklahoma State(L vs MIZZ 67-59)

29. Butler(Done)

30. Utah(W vs WYO 68-55, vs SDSU tomorrow)

31. Tennessee(W vs ALA 86-62, vs AUB tomorrow)

32. Wisconsin(L vs tOSU 61-57)

33. Michigan(L vs IL 60-50)

34. LSU(W vs UK 67-58, vs MISS ST tomorrow)

35. Boston College(L vs DUKE 66-65)

36. Texas A&M (Done)

 

In terms of seed lines, I think OU should definitely move down, Syracuse should definitely move up, and I'd move Washington down. More chances for some teams that are still playing to move up with big wins tomorrow.

[Prior4CyYoung]

No way does Oklahoma deserve a 1 seed anymore.

[Coach C]

You know, I really can't think of any teams that really deserves the number one seed. It just seems like, it won't matter because the number one seeding team isn't as strong it used to be, I guess. :shrug:

[bukie]

10. Minnesota (maybe they should have played someone in non-conference or gone above .500 in conference)

 

They beat Louisville

[bukie]

You know, I really can't think of any teams that really deserves the number one seed. It just seems like, it won't matter because the number one seeding team isn't as strong it used to be, I guess. :shrug:

Back in the old days of...last year?