Brandon Guyer

[Wrigley Rat]

Decent article on Brandon Guyer:

 

Guyer impressed scouts in his first year of Class A baseball in the Midwest League. He combined power (14 homers) with speed (22 stolen bases).

 

"We're trying to speed up the dial on this guy," said Cubs VP of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita. "He's a tough kid. He can run and throw. He's got a great knowledge of the strike zone. This guy isn't far from playing in the Major Leagues."

 

Fleita thinks Guyer could start the season in AA with a solid spring training. But the 6-foot-1, 210-pounder from Charlottesville, Virginia is thinking about that just yet.

 

He's taking smaller steps first.

 

"The goal for me is to have a lot of stolen bases, hit for power," confessed Guyer. " A certain number put on it? -- Not really. A lot!"

 

http://centralillinoisproud.com/content/fulltext/?cid=45072

[craig]

"He's got a great knowledge of the strike zone."

 

That's a surprising comment, for a guy who had a 63/19 K/BB ratio (in 327 AB) as a 22-year-old in low-A.

 

His BA report had a different view: ".... will need to make adjustments at the plate such as improving pitch recognition, plate discipline and ability to hit breaking balls..."

 

A possible way to reconcile: he does have relatively good knowledge of the strike zone. But he can't hit breaking balls, and is a relatively aggressive hitter. His K's are high but not real bad: 19% isn't bad. So perhaps he isn't swinging at a lot of bad balls. But he swings aggressively at a lot of strikes and at least some bad balls, thus the low walks. And perhaps he just can't hit breaking balls very well and swings through a lot of strikes, whether breaking balls or fastballs, thus K'ing pretty often even without fishing badly. So even if he knows the strike zone well, if his contact-hitting of strikes is problematic (especially moving strikes that have movement), that could be pretty problematic for being a useful big-leaguer.

 

the alternative is that the views don't reconcile. Fleita could be just talking baloney; would it be the first time that Fleita-gush lacked substance? Or it could be that BA doesn't really know him that well and their statements aren't that accurate. Fleita has much more interest in Guyer than BA has interest in some non-top-ten guy in a weak farm system. So maybe the pitch recognition-discipline-breaking balls needs work comment is sort of boilerplate, for anybody whose stats show unfavorable K/BB, and for anybody for whom perhaps that was said a couple years back in college.

 

Hopefully Guyer will be 100% healthy this year, will have a stronger arm so that he will look good as a RF or even a CF, will show continued/improved power (14 HR in 327 AB, 44 XBH in 327 AB versus only 40 singles, that's very power intriguing...), and will show the zone recognition to keep his K's within reason and hopefully to boost his walks some, perhaps we'll have a really interesting guy.

[Post Count Padder]

What does he project as?

[TruffleShuffle]

What does he project as?

 

tyler colvin lite.

[craig]

What does he project as?

 

Hard to guess, since he's had arm issues. But if his arm is recovered and is strong enough, I think he projects defensively as a good RF, possibly a very good LF, and possibly perhaps even a guy who can play some CF, although not anywhere close to top-tier level.

 

As a baserunner, he projects as a guy who runs well, although not a big-league basestealer.

 

As a personality he projects as a real hard-working player who might play with effort and intensity and might perhaps get the most out of whatever physical ability that he actually has.

 

As a hitter, if his defense is uncertain, triple that for him as a hitter. Last year he hit 14 HR in 327 AB. Guys often increase their HR output beyond their first pro season, so if you project his HR power to 550-600 big-league regular AB, it's within reach to imagine a guy who could hit 25+ HR. More than half his hits were for XB; again that suggests a guy who could have pretty good sock. Not likely that he's going to sustain all that against better pitching; but for example one comp might be Geovany Soto, without the walks, perhaps with fewer K's, and with a lot more speed. Thus far he hasn't shown many walks.

 

Those, of course, are all on the optimistic side. Most likely he projects as a guy who most likely won't hit pro pitching all that well. Who won't walk much; who isn't good enough for center and whose arm won't be enough for right; who has some power but not huge and not enough to actually put the full contact on the ball relative to big-league pitching; a guy who will K too much, walk and HR too little, and will get eaten by the kind of breaking stuff and hard moving fastballs that are much more routine in majors than in low-A. So good chance that he'll be a LF who hits .250 in the minors with 13 HR and a lousy K/BB.

[biittner77]

Craig, so from what you're saying is we should be able to get a pretty good read if he does start the year at AA? He should face a lot more and better breaking balls there. So what does he have to put up to show that Fleita is right and not just gushing?

[craig]

Craig, so from what you're saying is we should be able to get a pretty good read if he does start the year at AA? He should face a lot more and better breaking balls there. So what does he have to put up to show that Fleita is right and not just gushing?

 

Absolutely. If he starts at AA and produces, while playing RF or CF, then we'll know he's for real.

I would think that if he can OPS over .800 at AA, and if RF reports are favorable, then I think you've got a prospect.

 

If he goes to AA, hits .250 with 13 HR and 100K/20BB, while playing LF/DH, then we know he's got no future.

[Guest]

I still expect him to go to Daytona to start the season.

 

Every winter/spring, there's talk of a few somewhat surprising guys skipping a level (a lot of it seemling coming from Oneri) and very few do it.

 

So far this year, we've heard grumblings of Carpenter and Vitters skipping to Daytona and Guyer skipping to Tennessee. I think that Carpenter is the most likely and that's only to keep his arm away from Peoria in April.

[CUBZ99]

Guyer has some interesting numbers in the minor, albeit for only 1 season plus. It appears that he is not the most patient hitter, but he does have some interesting HBP numbers. So far in his 1+ seasons in the minors he has taken a BB 30 times and been HBP 20 times. That seems like a pretty high number. I don't know if this indicates that he crowds the plate or if his batting stance leads to more HBP's, but his HBP numbers seem to be pretty consistent (even throughout college). Has anyone ever studied whether these numbers are indicative of future performance?

[CubinNY]

Guyer has some interesting numbers in the minor, albeit for only 1 season plus. It appears that he is not the most patient hitter, but he does have some interesting HBP numbers. So far in his 1+ seasons in the minors he has taken a BB 30 times and been HBP 20 times. That seems like a pretty high number. I don't know if this indicates that he crowds the plate or if his batting stance leads to more HBP's, but his HBP numbers seem to be pretty consistent (even throughout college). Has anyone ever studied whether these numbers are indicative of future performance?

It could mean that he uses the HBP like some guys use a walk. Begeio and Baylor just stood there and let the ball hit them. seems like a good strategy to me.

 

I'm not confident that he'll learn patience (if can actually happen) in the Cubs system. It doesn't seem to have much value.

[craig]

Agree with Cal, Guyer will probably start at Daytona. In which case it will be harder to tell whether he's real or not. Well, if he hits .250 with 13 HR's at Daytona, it will be further proof that he's *not* serious. But if he hits .280 with 15 HR's and an .835 OPS at Daytona, that won't rule him out but it certainly won't make him a top-5 guy either.

 

On the HBP, that's a great catch, thanks. I think HBP is definitely a sustainable "skill". The volume of HBP tends to be low, so that it's inherently more variable. Having a lot seems to go with crowding the plate and kind of diving into the strike zone. If that's your style, that's your style, and it comes with more HBP.

 

It also sometimes comes with more injuries.

[CoolHandLuke]

Carlos Quentin is a great data point in favor of HBP being a sustainable skill.