Nick Swisher?

[TruffleShuffle]

What's wrong with a Dye-Konerko-Thome middle of the order?

Nothing if you like a station to station offense.

 

i like station to station offenses that put up great numbers and win world series, like the red sox or the phillies.

[17 Seconds]

Didn't you just poke fun of Ibanez's SLG "for a corner OF" in another thread? Now a guy who sluggs .450 is an option? Who cares if he's cheap and young, he also needs to be good. Swisher is not. He's this off-seasons flavor of Brad Wilkerson circa 2004. Then 2005 came and, poof, all the wanna-be-sabermatricians dream of a "young and cheap" bat was exposed as nothing special.

 

I know, I know, I'm about to get some BABIP based explanation about how the poor guy hit ropes at people all of last year. And I'm sure there will be another attempt to bring in how truly wonderful Greene will be in Cardinal red because he was another guy who was just unlucky. But little guys who hit alot of balls in the air will always be unlucky.

 

He's not the LH bat I want in RF. And I don't believe for a second that anyone really does despite their arguments.

 

Forget Bradley, this isn't fantasy, you don't pay someone big money to play 90 games. Forget Dunn, the Cubs don't need to follow the Dye, Konerko, and Thome middle of the order no matter how good those three can be when they're hitting HR's. Forget giving Abreau a deal that will suck in a year and a half. Forget projects like Swisher. Since Lou opened up his big trap about how they really needed a LH bat, it seems like that's all that's been focused on. They are intent on signing someone just for the sakes of signing someone. Be patient Jim, your offense is among the best in baseball as it stands. Before you know it there will be other "younger and cheaper" options available.

 

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: at this entire post

[17 Seconds]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

[TruffleShuffle]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

 

fangraphs had him valued at about $28M of production in '06-'07. he sucked in '08 but still earned his salary.

[Post Count Padder]

I wouldn't mind him, but it seems a bit weird for the Yanks to turn and trade him after jsut getting him. They've been trying to unload Melky.

[The Other 15]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

[The Other 15]

I know, I know, I'm about to get some BABIP based explanation about how the poor guy hit ropes at people all of last year.

 

i'll let someone else do it for me:

 

Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 was very low: .251, to be exact. In the previous three seasons, Swisher’s BABIP had been .308, .287 and .266, respectively. However, Swisher actually hit the most line drives of his career in 2008, hitting liners 20.9% of the time. While he did strike out a lot, his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate, as was his walk rate. Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck.

 

i guess you can mock the BABIP argument if you want, but when a guy is hitting line drives 20.9% of the time and his BABIP is .251, that's bad luck. he's a good bet to post a line like .240/.360/.440, and could certainly be better than that. he's not great, but he's way better than the options the cubs have on the current roster.

I only mock people that use one convenient number to back up their argument. Of course BABIP as it's place and it's limitations as well. When someone writes something like, " Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck." that gets filed under the limitations side of the argument.

[DiamondMind]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

 

I'm just curious, but can you list a few things you value higher than OPS+?

[The Other 15]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

 

I'm just curious, but can you list a few things you value higher than OPS+?

Tell me, just off the top of my head, is someone like Furcal a bad hitter just because his OPS+ has been under 100 historically? Please understand that I'm not just here to rile up people, I have somewhat an understanding of numbers as well as anyone else who can open a link. The difference is that I'm not smug enough to believe I know everything because of it. It's often very convenient to find a single stat and use it as an argument on this site. If you think that's acceptable (with any single stat) then we'll just disagree.

[17 Seconds]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

 

You're trying to make too much out of what I posted. Nowhere did I say he's as good as Ramirez and I definitely didn't say he's as consistent Ramirez. My point was that you basically said the guy was garbage, yet for 2 out of the last 3 seasons, he was almost as good as Ramirez offensively.

 

All OPS+ is is OPS adjusted for park, so it's not like this is some obscure stat I'm picking out that makes him look better than he is. It's pretty telling.

 

And the only reason I'm "watering it down" (which makes you sound pretty dumb by the way) is because judging by your posts it sounds like you have no idea how to crrectly look at stats to determine how good a player might be. Otherwise you wouldn't completely writing off Swisher just because he doesn't hit for average and played ina pitcher's park before being traded tothe White Sox.

 

Did he suck last year? Yes, but a ton of that has already been proven to be luck (despite you putting your fingers in your ears and pretending not to hear it).

 

So yeah, I'm not saying he's as good as Ramirez. I just don't see why you're writing him off when he's cheap, under control, just entering his prime, and was really good in 2 straight years before last season. It's like you see his low batting average and you just can't get past it. It's like that Seinfeld episode where Jerry has to end relationships because he finds some very minor flaw that he can't get past.

[17 Seconds]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

 

I'm just curious, but can you list a few things you value higher than OPS+?

Tell me, just off the top of my head, is someone like Furcal a bad hitter just because his OPS+ has been under 100 historically? Please understand that I'm not just here to rile up people, I have somewhat an understanding of numbers as well as anyone else who can open a link. The difference is that I'm not smug enough to believe I know everything because of it. It's often very convenient to find a single stat and use it as an argument on this site. If you think that's acceptable (with any single stat) then we'll just disagree.

 

Furcal's main draws are his defense and speed. He's not a bad hitter but he's nothing special.

 

And again, you obviously don't know how to look at any kinds of stats or else you'd see that OPS+ doesn't even have to be used to find out Swisher was a really productive hitter in 2006 and 2007. OPS+ is just the one that is easiest to look at and easy fopr you to understand (or we thought so, anyways). Stop acting like OPS+ is the only thing we have on Swisher.

[The Other 15]

aramis' OPS+ in the past 3 seasons- 126, 129, 128

swisher's OPS+ in 06 and 07- 125, 127

 

yeah this guys sucks

You seriously trying to tie Swish down with Aram somehow?

 

Convenient to forget that Aramis has had a 5 year run of producing 125+ OPS+? WHere hav you seen Aramis drop to the levels that Swisher did last year?

 

Yeah, more or less, he does suck when you have to use OPS+ of 92 and 101 to figure out what he'll likely produce.

 

That's just if you want to water everything down to just OPS+ (which is absurd).

 

I'm just curious, but can you list a few things you value higher than OPS+?

Tell me, just off the top of my head, is someone like Furcal a bad hitter just because his OPS+ has been under 100 historically? Please understand that I'm not just here to rile up people, I have somewhat an understanding of numbers as well as anyone else who can open a link. The difference is that I'm not smug enough to believe I know everything because of it. It's often very convenient to find a single stat and use it as an argument on this site. If you think that's acceptable (with any single stat) then we'll just disagree.

 

Furcal's main draws are his defense and speed. He's not a bad hitter but he's nothing special.

 

And again, you obviously don't know how to look at any kinds of stats or else you'd see that OPS+ doesn't even have to be used to find out Swisher was a really productive hitter in 2006 and 2007. OPS+ is just the one that is easiest to look at and easy fopr you to understand (or we thought so, anyways). Stop acting like OPS+ is the only thing we have on Swisher.

Since you know so much more than I about understanding how to read stats, how do you explain Swishers two bad seasons? Oh, that's right, just bad luck. BABIB says so, right?

 

Furcal's main draws are his defense and speed. He's not a bad hitter but he's nothing special.

Ohhh, interesting, there are other things to consider about a players value than just OPS+? How novel!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Furcal conveniently combines excellent skills at the most important defensive position with better-than-average hitting relative to the other players at that position.

 

Cherrypicking one of the few cases where it isn't true doesn't change that hitting is by far the most important part of a position player's value.

[Derwood]

Actually, OPS+ is a stat that takes a player's OPS, normalizes it for stadiums, and then compares it against every other player's normalized OPS for that season. An OPS+ of 100 means that player is exactly league average for a given year.

[TruffleShuffle]

I know, I know, I'm about to get some BABIP based explanation about how the poor guy hit ropes at people all of last year.

 

i'll let someone else do it for me:

 

Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 was very low: .251, to be exact. In the previous three seasons, Swisher’s BABIP had been .308, .287 and .266, respectively. However, Swisher actually hit the most line drives of his career in 2008, hitting liners 20.9% of the time. While he did strike out a lot, his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate, as was his walk rate. Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck.

 

i guess you can mock the BABIP argument if you want, but when a guy is hitting line drives 20.9% of the time and his BABIP is .251, that's bad luck. he's a good bet to post a line like .240/.360/.440, and could certainly be better than that. he's not great, but he's way better than the options the cubs have on the current roster.

I only mock people that use one convenient number to back up their argument. Of course BABIP as it's place and it's limitations as well. When someone writes something like, " Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck." that gets filed under the limitations side of the argument.

 

there are plenty of numbers supporting that swisher is a good baseball player. i'm also not sure what you mean by "convenient" - are you suggesting that people cite swisher's low babip to explain away his poor production last year? when you take into account his line drive percentage and his other peripherals (fly balls, ground balls, home run rate, walk/strikeout rate), it's clear that his production last year should have been better if not for an unusual amount of balls in play being caught.