Re: Dunn wants to be a Cub?

[CP_414]

Alright - so the most efficient defense in baseball last year was TB, converting 71% of all balls in play into outs (as an aside - Hendry is right that defense played a part in last year's success, as the Cubs were second best in baseball). Texas was the worst in the game at a 67% conversion rate. The difference on the number of hits on balls in play comes out to nearly two extra hits per game (just over 300 total).

 

Now I just have to figure out how to convert that into runs...

 

Good stuff Tim. So the difference between the best and worst was about 2 hits per game (which sounds very significant). If the Cubs were 2nd best and Dunn replacing Reed/Edmonds is the only significant change in the lineup, I wouldn't expect them to drop below middle of the pack. I am curious to see how many runs that would convert to, but I wouldn't expect it to significantly minimize the offensive upgrade Dunn provides.

 

I guess the other factor here is luck. Was it a fluke last year that the Cubs were 2nd best in baseball at converting balls in play into outs or is that ther actual skill level?

[Post Count Padder]

Oh great, more room for arguments over Dunn.

 

BTW, I don't feel like reading through 4 pages. Anyone want to give me a Cliff Notes version?

[BCVM22]

BTW, I don't feel like reading through 4 pages. Anyone want to give me a Cliff Notes version?

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

 

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

That's most of it, really. The rest is the usual.

Edited December 20, 2008 by BCVM22

[Old Style]

If he wants to play here so bad, tell him to sign a 2 year deal for $5 million.

[nilodnayr]

There seems to be much more concern about defense on this board this offseason than I can ever remember.

 

yeah for some reason defense is suddenly the new hotness on here

 

It happened about 2 seconds after fangraphs got UZR...thats the reason. Its like when you give a kid a new toy, thats all they want to play with for the next few weeks.

[nilodnayr]

Alright - so the most efficient defense in baseball last year was TB, converting 71% of all balls in play into outs (as an aside - Hendry is right that defense played a part in last year's success, as the Cubs were second best in baseball). Texas was the worst in the game at a 67% conversion rate. The difference on the number of hits on balls in play comes out to nearly two extra hits per game (just over 300 total).

 

Now I just have to figure out how to convert that into runs...

 

 

Well a single is worth about .48 runs, double .77 and triple 1.07 (no need to count the value of a HR in a conversion rate discussion). I can't find my copy of The Book, so someone correct me if I'm wrong here.

 

Based on distribution of hits in the NL last year (not sure if we should be using that to weight or not), the weighted average would be about .4866 runs per hit, so about 146 runs saved or so., aka about 15 wins difference between the best and worst defenses.

 

Now what was that about defense not really mattering? :D

[Mephistopheles]

It's 300 hits, but dynamically it's much more. You're also missing 300 outs. So that's another 100 hits or so. And some walks and some home runs. More innings pitched by middle relievers. More pitches thrown by starting pitchers, per out.

 

It's really much more than Ryan Dilon said. Though, by his numbers it's about 11 wins or so. He uses runs per hit. None of these balls will be home runs - unless he adjusted for that without stating. He also over converts runs to wins.

[B]

 

It's really much more than Ryan Dilon said.

I think it's Dolin.

[Guancous]

Is the 300 extra hits for the entire team or just for right field?

[Guest]

It's 300 hits, but dynamically it's much more. You're also missing 300 outs. So that's another 100 hits or so. And some walks and some home runs. More innings pitched by middle relievers. More pitches thrown by starting pitchers, per out.

 

It's really much more than Ryan Dilon said. Though, by his numbers it's about 11 wins or so. He uses runs per hit. None of these balls will be home runs - unless he adjusted for that without stating. He also over converts runs to wins.

Actually, that 300 hits is the actual difference between the teams.

[CP_414]

So if the best defense is worth 11 wins over the worst defense, how many wins is the #1 offense worth over the worst offense? How about the best pitching vs the worst?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Someone better than me can try to separate pitching and defense, but in the NL the best offense and the worst has been separated by about 200 runs, maybe a little more, on average the last few years.

[TheDude]

I'm sure this will get a few of you excited. Of course, doesn't mean anything if Hendry isn't interested in bringing Dunn to the Cubs.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

If I had Dunn's career numbers at Wrigley, I'd want to be a Cub also.

 

217 ABs: .286/ .419/ .664/ 1.083.

[erik316wttn]

I'm sure this will get a few of you excited. Of course, doesn't mean anything if Hendry isn't interested in bringing Dunn to the Cubs.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

If I had Dunn's career numbers at Wrigley, I'd want to be a Cub also.

 

217 ABs: .286/ .419/ .664/ 1.083.

 

That's also all against Cubs pitching. I don't put too much stock into a guys career numbers at a road ballpark.

[rocket]

I'm sure this will get a few of you excited. Of course, doesn't mean anything if Hendry isn't interested in bringing Dunn to the Cubs.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

If I had Dunn's career numbers at Wrigley, I'd want to be a Cub also.

 

217 ABs: .286/ .419/ .664/ 1.083.

 

That's also all against Cubs pitching. I don't put too much stock into a guys career numbers at a road ballpark.

 

the cubs pitching has been good for about 5 straight seasons though, minus 2006

[big_shooter17]

In this argument, I think that it is best to look at overall home/away stats. Then look at what the impact is of the games played in parks such as Petco. He hits home runs at the majority of parks within a reasonable range of what he does at GABP. Wrigley, Miller, both Busch's and Minute Maid are all within a reasonable range and those are parks with among his largest sample sizes. What is interesting is that in supposed pitcher friendly parks, Dunn appears to have a better BA. There isn't enough there to fully believe that there is anything to that more than luck, though.

[dbeider]

I'm sure this will get a few of you excited. Of course, doesn't mean anything if Hendry isn't interested in bringing Dunn to the Cubs.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

If I had Dunn's career numbers at Wrigley, I'd want to be a Cub also.

 

217 ABs: .286/ .419/ .664/ 1.083.

 

That's also all against Cubs pitching. I don't put too much stock into a guys career numbers at a road ballpark.

 

Jeff Blauser

[21stCenturyChamp]

If you've put up those numbers against Cubs pitchers the past five years, you're doing something. This isn't exactly the Jeff Blauser era of Cubs pitching.

[MSG T]

I'm sure this will get a few of you excited. Of course, doesn't mean anything if Hendry isn't interested in bringing Dunn to the Cubs.

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1219.php

Dave Kaplan reported on Thursday night that Adam Dunn is telling people if the Cubs will have him, that's where he wants to play. Kaplan reminded his listeners about how awful the Cubs defense would be in the outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left and Dunn in right. Kaplan finished his brief, yet revealing, discussion about Dunn with the following: "He wants to play here in the worst way."

 

If I had Dunn's career numbers at Wrigley, I'd want to be a Cub also.

 

217 ABs: .286/ .419/ .664/ 1.083.

 

That's also all against Cubs pitching. I don't put too much stock into a guys career numbers at a road ballpark.

 

 

While I tend to agree, on the last page I posted his overall numbers against the Cubs and his numbers at Wrigley, obviously also against the Cubs. His numbers are markedly better at Wrigley. It is, however only 267 PA's in Wrigley.

 

I have always wondered about the sanity of someone that wants a player, from another team, because that guy hits well in your ballpark. That being said, if a guy hits your pitching way better in your park than he does in his, the park may have some effect. But I doubt it means too much in the grand scheme of things.

[Vanilla Ice]

sample size sample size sample size

[17 Seconds]

Yeah, def sample size. There are bound to be certain parks that guys hit better in. That doesn't mean that trend is going to continue

[erik316wttn]

If you've put up those numbers against Cubs pitchers the past five years, you're doing something. This isn't exactly the Jeff Blauser era of Cubs pitching.

 

First, welcome to the board.

 

Second, yes, the Cubs have had pretty good pitching the last few years. However, your statement makes the assumption that because he hits the Cubs well, he's a good hitter. While I'm indifferent to Dunn, the fact that because a hitter kills our good pitching staff doesn't always make him a good hitter. Is Chris Young good because he murders us?

 

If Dunn can put up those numbers in Wrigley against our pitching staff, why can't he put up the same lines in other road ballparks against worse pitching staffs? I'd like to see some of those numbers.

 

Again, not saying that Dunn is good or bad. Just debunking this whole "He hits well here, let's sign him" argument.

[big_shooter17]

I looked at Dunn's numbers against the Cubs when they had more LHP on the staff, 2006 is the year that stands out to me in this regard. In this season, Dunn had a poor year at Wrigley in relation to others. What is interesting, though, is that Dunn did substantially better against LHP than RHP in this season. The same is true in 2003 when the Cubs had a couple of good LHP that Dunn would have faced. This season is far too small of a sample to use. Really, all of these samples that we are looking at are probably too small, but when look for reasons that Dunn has had success at Wrigley, these are factors that must be observed. In some of these years, though, the Cubs have had pitchers like Will Ohman as their LH relief specialist, who was not as good as some of the other loogies that Dunn may have faced. What would be more useful may also be to look at Dunn vs. RHP, for example. Not sure if this makes it any clearer for myself or if anyone thinks that these factors may play a role in Dunn's success or not.

[davearm2]

Anyone else find it curious that one year after ripping the awful condition of the OF at Wrigley, calling it full of craters and dangerous and so on, Dunn's begging to be a Cub.

 

I guess he must be a huge fan of the Sodfather.

[rocket]

Anyone else find it curious that one year after ripping the awful condition of the OF at Wrigley, calling it full of craters and dangerous and so on, Dunn's begging to be a Cub.

 

I guess he must be a huge fan of the Sodfather.

 

or jesus is answering my prayers