Cubs' ZIPS projections out

[wade]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

I didn't see this posted, sorry if I missed it.

[Mephistopheles]

I'll take the over on the optimistic home run output from Derrek Lee.

[Mephistopheles]

and rich harden's projection....wow. that k/9 works out to 12.88, which would be the third highest in history. so much for regression to the mean.

[wade]

I'll take the over on the optimistic home run output from Derrek Lee.

 

I hope so. I really thought he was on his way to 25-30 this year. I read an article about broken wrists and how power is slow to come back and I figured that was what was wrong with 2007- but now I'm afraid he won't get back to pre-'05 levels even.

[wade]

By the way, Meph- what do you think of ZIPS compared to Pecota, for instance?

[Post Count Padder]

Less than impressed with some of those, but it doesn't hurt to be realistic.

[Wilson A2000]

Samardzija 5.48 ERA. No way.

 

They don't think much of Dempster either (11-9 4.08 ERA).

[MPrior]

Samardzija 5.48 ERA. No way.

 

They don't think much of Dempster either (11-9 4.08 ERA).

 

I think that might even be a little optimistic on Dempster. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his ERA wind up a good bit higher than that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Samardzija 5.48 ERA. No way.

 

They don't think much of Dempster either (11-9 4.08 ERA).

 

I think that might even be a little optimistic on Dempster. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his ERA wind up a good bit higher than that.

 

I would. It's not like it was a fluky year where Dempster outperformed his peripherals by a huge margin. It was a fluky year in the sense that he's never pitched that well before. I expect regression for sure, but I'd expect him to be somewhere in the 3s.

[wade]

Samardzija 5.48 ERA. No way.

 

They don't think much of Dempster either (11-9 4.08 ERA).

 

I think that might even be a little optimistic on Dempster. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his ERA wind up a good bit higher than that.

 

I would. It's not like it was a fluky year where Dempster outperformed his peripherals by a huge margin. It was a fluky year in the sense that he's never pitched that well before. I expect regression for sure, but I'd expect him to be somewhere in the 3s.

 

Am I wrong, or was the biggest difference in Dempster the BB/9? (I may look into this to better participate in Dempster threads- I'm also worried that he'll fall way off, but maybe I shouldn't be)