Point/Counterpoint: Ron Santo and the HOF

[SouthSideRyan]

Raines and Trammell --- YES! I'm in the Hawk's corner, too.

 

Typically (not necessarily on NSBB) when I mention those guys as hall of famers, I'm blasted (especially on Dawson).

 

Dawson's pretty borderline. Tram and Raines should have/should fly in.

[OleMissCub]

Raines and Trammell --- YES! I'm in the Hawk's corner, too.

 

Typically (not necessarily on NSBB) when I mention those guys as hall of famers, I'm blasted (especially on Dawson).

 

Dawson's pretty borderline. Tram and Raines should have/should fly in.

 

Dawson played in an era of average offense and managed to put up almost 2800 hits, 438 HR, 500+ doubles, almost 1600 RBI, 300+ SB, and was a terrific defensive player winning 8 gold gloves, 4 of which came from playing center field. He also won an MVP award (although not the best that year) and a Rookie of the Year award.

 

Just step back and look at those numbers rounded off:

 

2800 hits

440 HR

500 Doubles

1600 RBI

300 Stolen Bases

8 Gold Gloves

MVP

ROY

 

How does that not SCREAM Hall of Fame? The guy was a bona fide 5 tool player for a majority of his career.

 

I realize why some might look down on his candidacy. Perhaps he didn't have a definable "peak" as many writers want. He never won a championship. His OBP isn't very good. His career might have dragged on longer than it should.

 

But c'mon, look at those stats in totality. That's a Hall of Fame resume if I've ever seen one. Dawson is the only person not in the HOF with 2700+ hits and over 400 HR...add on 300 stolen bases as well and he REALLY is in a league of his own.

 

He's 25th all time in total bases, 34th all time in RBI, 36th all time in HR, 45th all time in hits, and 45th all time in doubles.

[SouthSideRyan]

To me, Dawson's case comes down to the CF issue and if you want to give him some extra credit for years lost in CF(along with speed on the basepaths) thanks to playing on cement in Montreal. For a RF, his numbers don't do it.

[OleMissCub]

To me, Dawson's case comes down to the CF issue and if you want to give him some extra credit for years lost in CF(along with speed on the basepaths) thanks to playing on cement in Montreal. For a RF, his numbers don't do it.

 

RF? Compared to who? Babe, Aaron, Robinson....it's not fair to hold anyone to those standards.

 

OK, off the top of my head, RF's who are definitely better than Dawson: Ruth, Aaron, Robinson, Ott, Reggie, Clemente, Kaline. So that's what, seven guys who are clearly better than Dawson. Other right fielders that I know of in the Hall include Wahoo Sam Crawford, Waner, Gwynn, and Winfield.

 

I'm probably missing some glaring ones. Nevertheless, there is something like 60+ outfielders in the Hall of Fame and you are saying that someone who is in the top 50 all-time in many major offensive stats, regardless of position, shouldn't be in there? C'mon.

[OleMissCub]

I've posted this on this site before, but take a look at Bert Blyleven's stats compared to his peers that are all in the Hall of Fame:

 

 

 

Shutouts

t1) Nolan Ryan: 61

t1) Tom Seaver: 61

3) Bert Blyleven: 60

4) Don Sutton: 58

5) Steve Carlton: 55

t6) Jim Palmer: 53

t6) Gaylord Perry: 53

8) Fergie Jenkins: 49

9) Phil Niekro: 45

10) Catfish Hunter: 42

 

Complete Games

1) Gaylord Perry: 303

2) Fergie Jenkins: 267

3) Steve Carlton: 254

4) Phil Niekro: 245

5) Bert Blyleven: 242

6) Tom Seaver: 231

7) Nolan Ryan: 222

8) Jim Palmer: 211

9) Catfish Hunter: 181

10) Don Sutton: 178

 

Career Ks

1) Nolan Ryan: 5714

2) Steve Carlton: 4136

3) Bert Blyleven: 3701

4) Tom Seaver: 3640

5) Don Sutton: 3574

6) Gaylord Perry: 3534

7) Phil Niekro: 3342

8) Fergie Jenkins: 3192

9) Jim Palmer: 2212

10) Catfish Hunter: 2012

 

No. of Top 5 WHIP Finishes

1) Don Sutton: 10

2) Tom Seaver: 9

3) Bert Blyleven: 7

t4) Jim Palmer: 6

t4) Gaylord Perry: 6

t4) Nolan Ryan: 6

7) Steve Carlton: 5

t8) Catfish Hunter: 4

t8) Fergie Jenkins: 4

t8) Phil Niekro: 4

 

No. of 130 and Higher ERA+ Seasons

1) Tom Seaver: 9

2) Jim Palmer: 8

3) Bert Blyleven: 7

4) Steve Cartlon: 5

t5) Phil Niekro: 4

t5) Gaylord Perry: 4

t5) Nolan Ryan: 4

t8) Catfish Hunter: 3

t8) Don Sutton: 3

10) Fergie Jenkins: 2

 

No. of Top 5 ERA+ Seasons

1) Tom Seaver: 9

2) Jim Palmer: 8

3) Bert Blyleven: 7

4) Steve Carlton: 5

5) Nolan Ryan: 4

t6) Catfish Hunter: 3

t6) Phil Niekro: 3

t6) Don Sutton: 3

t9) Fergie Jenkins: 2

t9) Gaylord Perry: 2

 

5 Year Peak ERA+ Average

1) Tom Seaver: 165.6

2) Steve Carlton: 162.2

3) Jim Palmer: 154.4

4) Phil Niekro: 149.4

5)Bert Blyleven: 149

6) Nolan Ryan: 148.8

7) Don Sutton: 143.6

8) Gaylord Perry: 142.8

9) Fergie Jenkins: 130.4

10) Catfish Hunter: 129.2

 

No. of Top 5 Raw ERA Finishes

1) Jim Palmer: 10

t2) Bert Blyleven: 7

t2) Tom Seaver: 7

t4) Steve Carlton: 5

t4) Nolan Ryan: 5

6) Don Sutton: 4

t7) Catfish Hunter: 3

t7) Phil Niekro: 3

t7) Gaylord Perry: 3

10) Fergie Jenkins: 0

 

Career WARP3

Bert Blyleven: 147.7

Tom Seaver: 146.6

Steve Carlton: 138.7

Nolan Ryan: 135.5

Phil Niekro: 132.9

Gaylord Perry: 130.9

Ferguson Jenkins: 128.5

Don Sutton: 106.9

Jim Palmer: 99.6

Catfish Hunter: 67.8

 

[SouthSideRyan]

For RFs in the hall, BR has Clemente, Aaron, Kaline, Robinson, Williams, Jackson, Winfield and Gwynn.(Their only sorted as a specific OF position if they have the data on games played per position)

 

Top of my head, I don't think Dawson has much of a case over any of these guys.

 

 

If the case for Dawson is that he's a more deserving corner OF than Lou Brock and Lloyd Waner then I have to say no.

 

It's times like this I really wish I had BR P-I, but top of my head Dawson as a corner OF is pretty similar to Dwight Evans and Jim Rice's careers.

 

Longevity certainly has its value, but Dawson has the same OPS+ as Cliff Floyd. Is a healthy career Cliff Floyd a hall of famer? Is Moises Alou + 3 seasons a hall of famer?(10 points better) How bout Bobby Bonilla?(3 seasons less, but half his career at 3B to go with his 5 point advantage) Rusty Staub?

 

There's a bunch of similar corner OFs who aren't sniffing the HOF. His case depends on his CF play.

[OleMissCub]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

[bhogg]

See what I mean?

[OleMissCub]

See what I mean?

 

What you talkin bout Willis?

[SouthSideRyan]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

 

Bonds, Henderson, Mays, A-Rod, Morgan, Griffey, Beltran.

[OleMissCub]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

 

Bonds, Henderson, Mays, A-Rod, Morgan, Griffey, Beltran.

 

Yep. Those are too. All of whom are in the Hall of Fame or will/should be. Yes, even Beltran. I think he's on a HOF projection.

[treebird]

.323 obp is an awfully big hole to dig yourself out of. i don't think dawson does it.

 

i'll add that i'm not really willing to give him any extra credit for losing his legs due to olympic stadium. it sucks that it happened, but it did.

[SouthSideRyan]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

 

Bonds, Henderson, Mays, A-Rod, Morgan, Griffey, Beltran.

 

Yep. Those are too. All of whom are in the Hall of Fame or will/should be. Yes, even Beltran. I think he's on a HOF projection.

[SouthSideRyan]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

 

Bonds, Henderson, Mays, A-Rod, Morgan, Griffey, Beltran.

 

Yep. Those are too. All of whom are in the Hall of Fame or will/should be. Yes, even Beltran. I think he's on a HOF projection.

 

Is Soriano on a HOF projection? He's pretty similar to Dawson(Soriano gets 2B credit, Dawson gets CF credit)

[OleMissCub]

You make valid points as well, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. He's one of the top 5 tool players of all time in my opinion, as his stats clearly show.

 

Bonds, Henderson, Mays, A-Rod, Morgan, Griffey, Beltran.

 

Yep. Those are too. All of whom are in the Hall of Fame or will/should be. Yes, even Beltran. I think he's on a HOF projection.

 

Is Soriano on a HOF projection? He's pretty similar to Dawson(Soriano gets 2B credit, Dawson gets CF credit)

 

I don't know. If he gets close to 3000 hits and 500 HR, I'd certainly think so. He's definitely not close to the fielder that Dawson was though. Dawson was actually damn good at CF, Soriano at 2B...not so much. However, personally I don't think Soriano will put up the career numbers that Dawson did though.

[imb]

dawson is not a hall of famer, are you people crazy

 

354th in career ops+ from a position you should be getting more than that at

 

oh damn, we gotta put paul oneill and his 120 ops+ in now

[sneakypower]

with the godawful hitters behind Dawson in the lineup for most of his career, you can't really blame him for never walking

[mcgoobs]

The only convincing argument that has been presented is that Santo benefitted from a Wrigley that was favorable to hitters during his time. If this was true, and if it wasn't so much Santo having a hitting style tailored to Wrigley or the effects of him having to deal with diabetes, we should see the same effect for other Cubs players who played at the same time.

 

Here are the career home/road splits of players who spent the vast majority of their time playing for the Cubs at the same time as Santo. I'm too lazy to isolate the seasons they played for other teams.

 

Santo: 1960-73 with CHC, 74 with CHW

Home: .296/.383/.522/.905, tOPS+ of 118

Road: .257/.342/.406/.747, tOPS+ of 82

 

Glenn Beckett: 1965-73 with CHC, 74-75 with SDP

Home: .292/.328/.361/.689, tOPS+ of 108

Road: .274/.307/.329/.636, tOPS+ of 92

 

Don Kessinger: 1964-75 with CHC, 76-79 with STL and CHW

Home: .264/.328/.326/.654, tOPS+ of 109

Road: .240/.300/.297/.597, tOPS+ of 91

 

Billy Williams: 1959-74 with CHC, 75-76 with OAK

Home: .302/.374/.525/.899, tOPS+ of 110

Road: .278/.349/.459/.808, tOPS+ of 90

 

Ernie Banks: 1953-71 with CHC

Home: .287/.345/.532/.877, tOPS+ of 112

Road: .258/.312/.463/.775, tOPS+ of 88

 

Randy Hundley: 1964-65 with SFG, 66-73 with CHC, 74-75 with MIN and SDP, 76-77 with CHC

Home: .245/.300/.378/.678, tOPS+ of 111

Road: .228/.285/.322/.607, tOPS+ of 90

 

It looks as if there generally was a benefit to playing in Wrigley, although Santo's home-road splits would suggest that there was something unique that made him especially favorable to hitting at home.

 

Does this mean that he deserves to remain on outside the Hall? I personally think no, but understand if someone points to his road splits as a reason why he should. To OMC's point we'll never know how much of that was due to traveling with diabetes, or if all of the Cubs favorable splits at home were due more to adapting to day games than anything about the park specifically.

[Brett]

dawson is not a hall of famer, are you people crazy

 

354th in career ops+ from a position you should be getting more than that at

 

Unfortunately, that's what seals it for me with regards to Dawson.

[hossdriver]

dawson is not a hall of famer, are you people crazy

 

354th in career ops+ from a position you should be getting more than that at

 

Unfortunately, that's what seals it for me with regards to Dawson.

 

If you're tied to 'OPS+' as your underlying stat, then yes, it will probably seal the deal... However, 300+ stolen bases, 8 GG, and 157 career OF assists have NOTHING to do with his OPS+....

 

Dawson played the first half of his career BEFORE most of those other guys you compare him to (ARod, Bonds, Griffey, etc) even broke into the majors, and also BEFORE the 'Year of the Lively Ball' in 1987 when the offensive boom began... This is coincidentally the same year that Dawson won the MVP on a last place team and won the HR crown...

 

Nobody takes note that he also finished SECOND in MVP voting twice BEFORE that. Dawson did have a defined 'peak' from 1979-1983 before injuries hampered him for 3 seasons before moving to the North Side. Too bad nobody cites stats from THAT era because, well, nobody was putting up big numbers.

 

Since Dawson played so long into the 'Offensive Era', people like to compare him to players in that era, when in fact, by the time Griffey and ARod came along, and guys were hitting 40 and 50 with regularity, Dawson was in his late 30's and hobbled with bad knees...

 

Of course Dawson and Rice are favorable in numbers, they played MORE in the same era. You cannot name too many BETTER OFers from 1976-1987 than Dawson, Rice, Raines, Murphy, etc... You would have to look at guys like Guerrero, Winfield, Parker, Henderson and the guys that Dawson played with in HIS prime...

[hossdriver]

Furthermore, the real underlying reason why guys like Dawson and Santo are out, and guys like Tony Perez and Brooks are in, is the fact that their TEAMS accomplished more in the postseason... And its a shame...

[imb]

dawson is not a hall of famer, are you people crazy

 

354th in career ops+ from a position you should be getting more than that at

 

Unfortunately, that's what seals it for me with regards to Dawson.

 

If you're tied to 'OPS+' as your underlying stat, then yes, it will probably seal the deal... However, 300+ stolen bases, 8 GG, and 157 career OF assists have NOTHING to do with his OPS+....

 

Dawson played the first half of his career BEFORE most of those other guys you compare him to (ARod, Bonds, Griffey, etc) even broke into the majors, and also BEFORE the 'Year of the Lively Ball' in 1987 when the offensive boom began... This is coincidentally the same year that Dawson won the MVP on a last place team and won the HR crown...

 

Nobody takes note that he also finished SECOND in MVP voting twice BEFORE that. Dawson did have a defined 'peak' from 1979-1983 before injuries hampered him for 3 seasons before moving to the North Side. Too bad nobody cites stats from THAT era because, well, nobody was putting up big numbers.

 

Since Dawson played so long into the 'Offensive Era', people like to compare him to players in that era, when in fact, by the time Griffey and ARod came along, and guys were hitting 40 and 50 with regularity, Dawson was in his late 30's and hobbled with bad knees...

 

Of course Dawson and Rice are favorable in numbers, they played MORE in the same era. You cannot name too many BETTER OFers from 1976-1987 than Dawson, Rice, Raines, Murphy, etc... You would have to look at guys like Guerrero, Winfield, Parker, Henderson and the guys that Dawson played with in HIS prime...

 

ops+ is just a lazy way to measure how much better he was than his era. the answer is "not much"