Dodgers playoff rotation set

[splintersag]

Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and TBA (possibly Lowe on short rest or Maddux).

 

Joe Torre's announcement hardly came as a surprise: right-hander Derek Lowe will start Game 1 of the NL division series for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Lowe will be followed by righty and 16-game winner Chad Billingsley in Game 2 and then right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 9-10 record. Torre, speaking before the NL West champions' game Saturday night at San Francisco, said he hadn't decided whether Lowe would come back on short rest for a potential fourth game. He will determine that based on how the series is going, though Greg Maddux could wind up a candidate.

 

"A lot of those decisions are made as the series goes on," said Torre, who plans to carry 11 pitchers. "It also depends who we use."

Source

 

So:

 

Lowe vs Dempster

Bill vs Zambrano

Kuroda vs Harden

TBA vs Lilly

 

Sounds good to me. If we're going to lose one of those games, Game 2 would be most likely, but I think the Cubs can sweep.

[Fro]

The big key is going to be getting 3 runs in game 1 off Lowe/Dodger's pen, and getting good Z in game 2.

 

I like our chances a lot in games 3/4.

[hankp101]

Just got my tickets for Harden-Kuroda. Could have got much better tickets for Game 4, but i didn't want to risk the game not happening. I haven't been able to make it to a Cubs playoff game since '89. Let's go Cubs!

[inari]

Game one scares me a lot. Derek Lowe has had a lot of success against us. In fact, all of the games scare me. The Dodgers pitching is very good. I think we'll win, but I would have much rather played the Mets.

[hankp101]

Agreed. I thought Mets were a much better matchup for the Cubs, but I'll take the silver lining of being able to go to a game.

[XZero771679666304]

Agreed. I thought Mets were a much better matchup for the Cubs, but I'll take the silver lining of being able to go to a game.

 

The way they were playing, the Mets would have been a good match up for the Bad News Bears (pre-Whurlitzer, even).

[hardcorecubfan]

Game one scares me a lot. Derek Lowe has had a lot of success against us. In fact, all of the games scare me. The Dodgers pitching is very good. I think we'll win, but I would have much rather played the Mets.

 

He seems to have our number, saying that if we do score with our top of the line-up, against Lowe, scores early it will be a big confidence booster and it may then go three games

[Mephistopheles]

Ranking of the Ten Starters for the Cubs and Dodgers, by VORP/GSish. I always love this way of grading production for starters. I've adjusted it for SoS and location of game. Something BP doesn't do to my liking. So its from the raw data, although I use their run factor:

 

 

1. 2.34 Rich Harden

2. 1.77 Ryan Dempster

3. 1.74 Carlos Zambrano

4. 1.39 Chad Billingsley

5. 1.38 Derek Lowe

6. 1.08 Ted Lilly

7. 0.92 Hiroki Kuroda

8. 0.87 Jason Marquis

9. 0.58 Clayton Kershaw

10. 0.37 Greg Maddux

 

Note: Maddux and Harden's stats include time with San Diego and Oakland, respectively.

[series65cubsfan]

Great stuff Meph, good to see you around.

[David]

I missed Meph.

[badger1679666666]

Is our rotation set? I haven't seen it anywhere...

[David]

Is our rotation set? I haven't seen it anywhere...

 

Dempster

Zambrano

Harden

Lilly

[Banedon]

Ranking of the Ten Starters for the Cubs and Dodgers, by VORP/GSish. I always love this way of grading production for starters. I've adjusted it for SoS and location of game. Something BP doesn't do to my liking. So its from the raw data, although I use their run factor:

 

 

1. 2.34 Rich Harden

2. 1.77 Ryan Dempster

3. 1.74 Carlos Zambrano

4. 1.39 Chad Billingsley

5. 1.38 Derek Lowe

6. 1.08 Ted Lilly

7. 0.92 Hiroki Kuroda

8. 0.87 Jason Marquis

9. 0.58 Clayton Kershaw

10. 0.37 Greg Maddux

 

Note: Maddux and Harden's stats include time with San Diego and Oakland, respectively.

 

I'm guessing that these numbers wouldn't be the same if we just went with August and September...or even just September. The Dodgers pitching has finished a lot stronger than the Cubs, mostly because Zambrano has stunk, and Harden has pitched sparingly.

[CubinNY]

Ranking of the Ten Starters for the Cubs and Dodgers, by VORP/GSish. I always love this way of grading production for starters. I've adjusted it for SoS and location of game. Something BP doesn't do to my liking. So its from the raw data, although I use their run factor:

 

 

1. 2.34 Rich Harden

2. 1.77 Ryan Dempster

3. 1.74 Carlos Zambrano

4. 1.39 Chad Billingsley

5. 1.38 Derek Lowe

6. 1.08 Ted Lilly

7. 0.92 Hiroki Kuroda

8. 0.87 Jason Marquis

9. 0.58 Clayton Kershaw

10. 0.37 Greg Maddux

 

Note: Maddux and Harden's stats include time with San Diego and Oakland, respectively.

 

I'm guessing that these numbers wouldn't be the same if we just went with August and September...or even just September. The Dodgers pitching has finished a lot stronger than the Cubs, mostly because Zambrano has stunk, and Harden has pitched sparingly.

That's what SoS is for. The Dodgers also finished with teams that had little to no offense to speak of.

 

I'm more confident of a Cubs series victory than I have ever been. The Dodgers are not good.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ranking of the Ten Starters for the Cubs and Dodgers, by VORP/GSish. I always love this way of grading production for starters. I've adjusted it for SoS and location of game. Something BP doesn't do to my liking. So its from the raw data, although I use their run factor:

 

 

1. 2.34 Rich Harden

2. 1.77 Ryan Dempster

3. 1.74 Carlos Zambrano

4. 1.39 Chad Billingsley

5. 1.38 Derek Lowe

6. 1.08 Ted Lilly

7. 0.92 Hiroki Kuroda

8. 0.87 Jason Marquis

9. 0.58 Clayton Kershaw

10. 0.37 Greg Maddux

 

Note: Maddux and Harden's stats include time with San Diego and Oakland, respectively.

 

I'm guessing that these numbers wouldn't be the same if we just went with August and September...or even just September. The Dodgers pitching has finished a lot stronger than the Cubs, mostly because Zambrano has stunk, and Harden has pitched sparingly.

 

The Dodgers also faced horrible teams, and the Cubs faced good ones. With little to no motivation.

[Cynosure]

No Kershaw as 4th starter? Interesting... but good for us, we wouldn't be able to hit him.

[twothousandfive]

No Kershaw as 4th starter? Interesting... but good for us, we wouldn't be able to hit him.

If Kershaw ends up in middle relief -- between he and Beimel, there is a very good chance that the Dodgers will force the Cubs to use both sides of the CF platoon, giving the Saito the advantage of facing Reed Johnson in a key situation.

 

That seems to be worth considering for the Cubs roster -- Pie to play CF should that be required, and probably Ward to be the PH. It would also argue for either Fontenot (with DeRosa moving to RF) or Hoffpauir should a RH PH get the call if Fukudome is hitting against Beimel/Kershaw. But I don't think they'll have a RH PH.

[Mephistopheles]

I'm guessing that these numbers wouldn't be the same if we just went with August and September...or even just September. The Dodgers pitching has finished a lot stronger than the Cubs, mostly because Zambrano has stunk, and Harden has pitched sparingly.

 

1. 2.13 Derek Lowe

2. 1.93 Ryan Dempster

3. 1.87 Rich Harden

4. 1.84 Ted Lilly

5. 1.69 Hiroki Kuroda

6. 1.27 Chad Billingsley

7. 1.05 Jason Marquis

8. .71 Clayton Kershaw

9. .65 Greg Maddux

10. -.39 Carlos Zambrano

 

So Lowe moves up, but we still have a three headed monster of 1.8+, only Zambrano isn't one of them.