Lou: Dempster to start game 1

[Bote McBoteface]

I don't really like the idea of the uh...highly inconsistent...Zambrano going in what will likely be a very important game 3. I guess every game is important, though. Hopefully he gets it together.

[DubCub]

Lou's not hinting anymore. He just named Dempster game 1 starter in his pregame interview.

Yeah here's the story on Cubs.com

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=3548029&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

[Cynosure]

Oh wow... I got criticized for saying this in the playoff rotation thread... look who was right and for the same reasons.

[Coach C]

I wonder if the slotting of 2-4 would be determined on who the Cubs will play, based on their line-ups...

[David]

Oh wow... I got criticized for saying this in the playoff rotation thread... look who was right and for the same reasons.

 

You got criticized for what?

 

I haven't seen anyone very much opposed to Dempster starting game one.

 

The home field thing isn't a great reason, and part of me thinks Lou, who says a lot of stuff, just threw that out there as a reason. It probably had a lot more to do with Z's inconsistencies lately, and I'm sure he didn't want to call out Z specifically.

[17 Seconds]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

[nilodnayr]

I'd go Dempster game 1, Harden game 2, Zambrano game 3 and Lilly game 4.

If this is the rotation, I predict that Lilly won't make an appearance in the NLDS.

 

He can start game 2 in the NLCS, then.

 

Unless we are playing the Brewers in the NLCS.

[SouthSideRyan]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

[Coach C]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

 

No, it makes sense to have Dempster as game one, as several people have pointed out that Dempster can give you 7 innings and at least 2-3 ER's, since Harden could only go for 5 or 6 innings and Zambrano, well, depending on which Zambrano shows up. But as Dempster going 7 innings, and only having to use Marmol and Wood for the 8th and 9th, and the pen will still be fresh for game 2, plus the off day as well where the pen will be back in full strength in game 4, if needed.

[nilodnayr]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

 

SNLVAR:

 

Harden: 6.7 (CHI and OAK)

Dempster: 6.5

Zambrano: 5.0

Lilly 4.5

[SouthSideRyan]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

 

SNLVAR:

 

Harden: 6.7 (CHI and OAK)

Dempster: 6.5

Zambrano: 5.0

Lilly 4.5

 

And correct me if I'm wrong, but those are cumulative stats. If you're judging who's had a better season, then yeah, maybe it's Dempster, but judging on who's the best pitcher for one game, it's Harden, and not particularly close.(I know you're supporting my argument, just kinda tilting at windmills here)

[SouthSideRyan]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

 

No, it makes sense to have Dempster as game one, as several people have pointed out that Dempster can give you 7 innings and at least 2-3 ER's, since Harden could only go for 5 or 6 innings and Zambrano, well, depending on which Zambrano shows up. But as Dempster going 7 innings, and only having to use Marmol and Wood for the 8th and 9th, and the pen will still be fresh for game 2, plus the off day as well where the pen will be back in full strength in game 4, if needed.

 

As I've pointed out, Dempster has average ~6 1/3 innings per start this season, and Harden has average ~6 innings per start.

 

I wasn't talking about Zambrano, he should be slotted 3rd.

[Coach C]

Who would have thought 6 months ago that we'd be having this conversation right now? We have Harden and Zambrano, and Dempster seems to be the unanimous choice for game 1 (and rightfully so). Just a weird ass season.

 

Dempster is not rightfully the right choice for game 1. It should be the best pitcher on the team.

 

No, it makes sense to have Dempster as game one, as several people have pointed out that Dempster can give you 7 innings and at least 2-3 ER's, since Harden could only go for 5 or 6 innings and Zambrano, well, depending on which Zambrano shows up. But as Dempster going 7 innings, and only having to use Marmol and Wood for the 8th and 9th, and the pen will still be fresh for game 2, plus the off day as well where the pen will be back in full strength in game 4, if needed.

 

As I've pointed out, Dempster has average ~6 1/3 innings per start this season, and Harden has average ~6 innings per start.

 

I wasn't talking about Zambrano, he should be slotted 3rd.

 

Even that, I still think Dempster will have a better chance of giving you 7 innings than Harden would, IMHO.

 

As for Zambrano, I agree that he should be slotted 3rd.

[erik316wttn]

I like Lou's logic. The bullpen will probably be more active in Game 2, and then with the off day for travel they should be rested for Game 3 on the road, where Z is King.

 

Sure, he's not pitching his ace first, but he's got numbers to back him up.

 

Let's hope this doesn't work out like "saving Z for game 4" did.

[cubsfan26]

Even that, I still think Dempster will have a better chance of giving you 7 innings than Harden would, IMHO.

 

 

By looking at the game logs for Harden since early July, I kinda agree with that. Harden has gone 7 innings in a game 4 times since July, and three of the games were against a bad offensive teams in the Reds, D-backs and Nationals. When he faces teams with good/decent teams, like Phillies(even though he had a great start against them in June), Mets, Angels,White Sox,Red Sox and Brewers he's been mostly a 5-6 inning pitcher.

 

 

Harden is hard to hit against anybody, but if he doesn't have his top notch stuff good teams are going to make him work hard to shut them down. Which causes him to not be in the game very long. Now there probably isn't a huge difference with Dempster, but if you had to say who do you think will go longer in a game, I think most would take Dempster. That doesn't mean Dempster should start game 1, but I don't have a big problem with it either. The only problem I have with it is the game 5 factor. In a must win game 5, I'd rather have Harden on the mound. But I guess Dempster isn't a bad option either, with the way he has pitched this year.

[mikeyt34]

I have no problem with Dempster pitching games 1 and potential 5. With the season on the line in a game 5 scenario, Dempster has shown more grit and determination than anyone on this ballclub, Lilly is a close second in the grit and determination department. No second guessing here people, you have to go with your most consistent guy... Mr. Ryan Scott Dempster.

[splintersag]

I have no problem with Dempster pitching games 1 and potential 5. With the season on the line in a game 5 scenario, Dempster has shown more grit and determination than anyone on this ballclub, Lilly is a close second in the grit and determination department. No second guessing here people, you have to go with your most consistent guy... Mr. Ryan Scott Dempster.

 

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e274/chicubforlife/Chicago%20Cubs/theriot3.jpg

 

Of course, the man/demigod can't start every position. Or can he? http://media.ign.com/boardfaces/33.gif

 

But, as I stated before, I agree with this choice and think it's a good idea. Dempster will give us the best chance to win, as he's most likely to give us a quality start (both innings and runs).

[nilodnayr]

Even that, I still think Dempster will have a better chance of giving you 7 innings than Harden would, IMHO.

 

 

By looking at the game logs for Harden since early July, I kinda agree with that. Harden has gone 7 innings in a game 4 times since July, and three of the games were against a bad offensive teams in the Reds, D-backs and Nationals. When he faces teams with good/decent teams, like Phillies(even though he had a great start against them in June), Mets, Angels,White Sox,Red Sox and Brewers he's been mostly a 5-6 inning pitcher.

 

 

Harden is hard to hit against anybody, but if he doesn't have his top notch stuff good teams are going to make him work hard to shut them down. Which causes him to not be in the game very long. Now there probably isn't a huge difference with Dempster, but if you had to say who do you think will go longer in a game, I think most would take Dempster. That doesn't mean Dempster should start game 1, but I don't have a big problem with it either. The only problem I have with it is the game 5 factor. In a must win game 5, I'd rather have Harden on the mound. But I guess Dempster isn't a bad option either, with the way he has pitched this year.

Although, it should be noted that Lou was most definitely babying Harden (and rightfully so). Of the 12 games Harden's pitched as a Cub, he hasn't gone 7 innings 8 times. Of those 8 times hes only eclipsed the 100 pitch count 1 time. If I were Lou in the playoffs I wouldn't ride Harden to a Dusty-esque limit, but I'd take the kid gloves a bit and release the reigns. Don't be so concerned that Harden hasn't gone terribly deep into games in the regular season.

 

Conversely, its interesting to note that in 2008, for pitches 91-105, Harden's OPSA is 921 due to an increase walk rate and HR rate...but we're only talking about 52 PAs so we can throw it out due to sample size.

[justlikethecubs]

Is it possible this would also have to do a bit with rest both for the starters and bullpen. If Harden were to go game 1 and 5, he'd be pitching on normal rest, which it seems like he hasn't done a lot of the last month. If Lou did extend Harden to 110 to 120 pitches, he might be concerned about his ability to come back on normal rest and pitch effectively in game 5. The bullpen would be rested but you wouldn't necessarily want to get into that in the 5th or 6th. Conversely, Dempster has been pretty consistent all year long regardless of pitch count. Anyway, just a thought.