Where will guys start next season at? (Full Season Rosters)

[Brian]

ok I missed that he even had TJS... or I just forgot.

[craig]

Toonster on BCB mentioned he read an interview in which McDaniel said he expected to be a starter.

 

Thanks cal. I'd really been hoping for that. I'd assumed he be at Peoria in relief. But before the roster news this week I'd hoped they'd start him at Peoria. That he's both skipping and starting, that's pretty interesting.

 

That would leave one spot left, and I'll guess Albuquerque with Dolis in relief. Perhaps if Cashner returns sometime that might come at expense of AAl.

 

So it's looking like we'll have 7 pitchers drafted last June in full-season starting rotations, and if/when Cashner gets back it will be 8: Coleman/Jackson AA, McDaniel/Leverton/(Cashner) A+, and Shafer/Carpenter/Belliveau A-. Not sure I can ever remember a deal like that.

 

Hopefully that reflects a historically good draft. Probably it reflects the huge vacuum that we had in terms of rotation prospects. Certainly it reflects some shift back to a traditional philosophy of putting pitchers into rotation even if you expect them to end up as relievers.

 

I think it also reflects how one good draft/signings can really transform a system. If a bunch of those 8 guys impress, the system could easily shoot up from 27th within a single year.

[Wrigley Rat]

So it's looking like we'll have 7 pitchers drafted last June in full-season starting rotations, and if/when Cashner gets back it will be 8: Coleman/Jackson AA, McDaniel/Leverton/(Cashner) A+, and Shafer/Carpenter/Belliveau A-. Not sure I can ever remember a deal like that.

 

Hopefully that reflects a historically good draft. Probably it reflects the huge vacuum that we had in terms of rotation prospects. Certainly it reflects some shift back to a traditional philosophy of putting pitchers into rotation even if you expect them to end up as relievers.

 

I think it also reflects how one good draft/signings can really transform a system. If a bunch of those 8 guys impress, the system could easily shoot up from 27th within a single year.

Or it could backfire if they all do poorly. I think the odds are against most of them excelling since they've been rushed. I think a few of them should have started at a lower level and moved up after they showed success.

 

I'm still waiting to see which free agents the Cubs sign to minor league contracts. I know they need a RH 3B at Iowa, so that should come soon. Matulia should be deactivated, either Taguchi or Dubois will likely be released, and a pitcher like Reinhard or Estrada will likely either be released or sent to Tennessee.

[craig]

...Hopefully that reflects a historically good draft. Probably it reflects the huge vacuum that we had in terms of rotation prospects. ... If a bunch of those 8 guys impress, the system could easily shoot up from 27th within a single year.

 

Or it could backfire if they all do poorly. I think the odds are against most of them excelling since they've been rushed. I think a few of them should have started at a lower level and moved up after they showed success.

 

Obviously any of the surprise guys could do poorly. If they all do poorly, obviously the system rank won't elevate.

 

Most of the surprise assignments were pitchers. The only surprising player assignments was Castro, and to a much lesser degree Guyer. (Guyer is 23, and played in a high-level college conference where a lot of pitchers throw breaking balls. So while I didn't expect it, I don't see his as a reprehensibly rash promotion.)

 

So the real volume of surprises were the pitchers: Searle, McDaniel, Coleman, Jackson, and to a lesser degree Leverton (level) and Lambert (rotation not relief). I'm less concerned about those assignments than you are, for logic I've probably belabored before. IMO either a pitcher has the potential to end up with the arm and the stuff and the control to make it or not; and either he improves towards his potential or he doesn't. To a large degree I think progress towards his ceiling is largely independent of level.

 

The plate is the same distance and shape in A-, A+, and AA. Example Coleman: My friend is an old friend of a Baltimore scout who scouted Cubs camp this spring. he said that Coleman is low-mid 90's, has a good slider, a developing change, has been very impressive this spring, is athletic, has a lot of talent, as much if not more than his father (1st round pick, two-time 20-game winner, all-star). If that talent eval is accurate and if his arm holds up, then if Coleman can optimize his mechanics and location he'll become a major leaguer. I have no idea whether the stuff this scout thought he saw in camp will really hold up over the season or over multiple seasons; by May his arm may be tired and he'll be 87-91mph for all I know. And I have no idea whether his command will ever improve, whether his change will ever evolve into a useful pitch, or whether he'll ever be able to fairly consistently pitch toward the higher end of his velocity range. But my point is that I don't think his progress toward those targets will matter much whether he's in A-, A+, or AA. If he's locating 90-94 fastballs and locating good sliders, he'll succeed at any of those levels. If he's not locating 89mph fastballs, his change is a throwaway pitch, and his slider is hanging or bouncing, he'll struggle regardless.

 

I think some of the same applies to jackson and McDaniel. If Jackson's signature slider is commanded and diving down and away from RH hitters, and if he's locating a fastball that rests at 92 and touches 96 on rare occasion, he'll succeed at any of those levels. If his fastball devolves to 89 and loses it's life and location, and if he can't locate the slider, he'll be giving up HR's and runs in any of those leagues.

 

McDaniel, somewhat similar. He scouts with a fastball that touches as high as 94 but is more notable for it's diving action in on RH; he has a decent slider that breaks down and away; and lacks a change but will try to work on one. If he can sharpen the slider and it's consistency and keep the life and action on his fastball, then if he has command and consistency you've got a good reliever. If both of those things were to happen and he were to invent an effective change, you'd have a serious prospect. Will his slider get more consistent? How consistently will he be able to locate his fastball and slider? He needs to get more consistent; but will his improvement in consistency be any faster at Peoria than it will be at Daytona? It's up to him. If he gets better, he gets better; if he doesn't, he doesn't. I don't think it matter too much whether he's facing Flaherty, Lake, and Burke in A- or Smith, Castro, and Rundle in A+. It's more about him than about the guys he's facing.

 

Will all these guys continue to impress and improve? Most likely not. But I just think their progress will mostly be their progress, regardless of level. Any of these pitchers has the stuff to compete well at the level that they are assigned to. It's mostly a question of how consistently they locate their better stuff.

 

Other rambles: obviously they don't all need to succeed. But Harden is on a terminal contract, and his health issues (combined with his ineffectiveness this camp and low velocity) make me wonder whether he'll be back next year. Lilly isn't young and is nearing the end of his contract. Marshall may become a mainstay, but it remains to be confirmed whether he has the durability or the excellence to be a long-term rotation building block. So their may well be rotation opportunities arising in the relatively near future. If Coleman and/or jackson and/or McDaniel and/or Searle pass the challenge this year, that might help impact longer-term planning. Do you need to sign a Marquis next winter? Or might you have answers coming up through the system?

 

If Coleman and/or Jackson and McDaniel and/or Searle end up passing the test, that might also give you the ammo you might need in June to acquire a Peavy. At present, I'm not sure what we've got for high-leverage trade chips in pitching. Possibly Samardz is he pitches well this season, and if he doesn't maybe nobody. But if some of these new guys excel, then maybe you've got the value to acquire some Nowacrat help.

 

Last, we know that most prospects fail, sooner or later. We'll have eight 2008 draftees pitching rotation; of course most of them will probably wash out. But we don't need to have them all click. If three of them eventually work out, that could still be a fantastic and organization-improving draft.

 

I'm still waiting to see which free agents the Cubs sign to minor league contracts. I know they need a RH 3B at Iowa, so that should come soon. Matulia should be deactivated, either Taguchi or Dubois will likely be released, and a pitcher like Reinhard or Estrada will likely either be released or sent to Tennessee.

 

I really like the relievers at AA. I certainly wouldn't want to replace any of them, other than perhaps Perkins, with roster-fillers like Reinhard or Estrada. So if we get somebody for Iowa that knocks off Reinhard or Estrada, I'd hope they get released rather than dominoing down to Tenn.

 

For 3B, I've assumed that bobby Scales is the main guy. Fox 1B, Scales 3B (he's a switch, so he already would provide the RH 3B), Blanco SS, Spears 2B, Rivas/Matulia utility. Rivas and Scales are obviously career guys; I'd be more than pleased if we could pick up some other career guys who were better to replace them. I'd certainly like to see some 3B signed who might be a better option than Scales in case ARam gets injured.

 

The other 3B consideration is that I like Spears as a player. But I think he needs to show he can play more than just 2B to be ready to serve a Cubs bench role. So I hope that they don't play just to win at Iowa, but play to develop Cubs. So I hope that somehow they work their infielders such that Spears plays a bunch of 3b, and perhaps even some SS, not just 2b.

[ChiefsVoice]

Bautista was released. And Carrillo is injured.

[Guest]

I don't view Coleman or Jackson as major jumps; they finished last season at Daytona. Leverton is skipping a level but he is a college draftee. Obviously a guy like Searle is making a massive jump given his 2 months of pro experience and his younger age. McDaniel is skipping a level but he's a college draftee and the bigger thing is that he's going back to the rotation.

[Guest]

Tennessee:

 

The Sevier County Mountain Press[/url]"]"(Russell and Lambert) are probably the most experienced guys, and they don't have a lot of Double-A experience," Lewallyn said. "(But) it's going to be fun. We're going to take our lumps along the way, but I think they'll figure it out as we go along."

 

The rotation for the Smokies, at least in their first series against Jacksonville, will be Russell, Hung-Wen Chen from Taiwan, Casey Coleman, Jay Jackson and Lambert, in that order.

 

"Casey Coleman has a pretty good feel for what he's doing," Lewallyn said. "He's got pretty good genetics, his dad pitched in the big leagues for a long time, Joe Coleman. And I really like what I see with Jay Jackson. And Chen looks like he knows what he's doing."

 

Pics from the Mountain Press:

 

http://www.heraldsun.com/webit/docs/MountainPress/images/14778.jpg

Ryne Sandberg

 

http://www.heraldsun.com/webit/docs/MountainPress/images/14765.jpg

Blake Lalli and Ryne Sandberg

 

Peoria:

 

Thr Bloomington Pantagraph[/url]"]“It will be nice to get down here and actually start from the beginning and hopefully stay healthy for the whole year,” Vitters said Tuesday during the team’s initial workout on its home field. “It was a little frustrating at the beginning, but it was still a good learning experience playing at Boise.”

 

...

 

“Boise got me ready for what’s going to come my way this year,” said the 6-foot-2, 220-pound third baseman. “It (the injuries) was a freak kind of thing. I didn’t want to be one of those guys who is always injured. I wanted to show them I was 100 percent and ready to go.”

 

...

 

“He is your prototypical third baseman,” Chiefs’ manager Marty Pevey said. “He hits for power, he has good range, a solid arm and great hands. He’s a young guy, but he’s an outstanding talent. He can really drive the ball.”

 

According to Vitters, the attention that goes with being a first-round pick and a highly touted prospect is “easy for me to deal with. I’ve always been under the spotlight with every travel ball team. I’m used to it. I take it pretty well.”

 

The 19-year-old Vitters wants to improve his defense this season.

 

“Right now, I’m working on my defense more than anything. I know the bat is always going to be there,” he said. “I want to show everybody I can play with the best of them. I’m working on my agility and all the fundamentals of defense.”

 

Pics from the Peoria Journal-Star:

 

http://www.pjstar.com/photos_graphics/x2138483123/Chiefs-practice1-jpg/g1a91330996322be439708a5fb85d3aebfb14a5fdab6362.jpg

Jeff Believau and Aaron Shafer

 

http://www.pjstar.com/photos_graphics/x2138483125/Chiefs-practice2-jpg/g1a9132a03ac596dea00f650984613f05c5816e64c1254d.jpg

Tuesday's work out

[Guest]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/854802.html

 

Oneri said Cerda had a tremendous spring training, hitting .450 with 11 walks and 1 strike out but didn't break with a full season team since he's still learning how to catch.

 

Dan McDaniel is confirmed in Daytona's rotation.

[craig]

Thr Bloomington Pantagraph[/url]"]

“He is your prototypical third baseman,” Chiefs’ manager Marty Pevey said. “He ... has good range, a solid arm and great hands.

 

His defense and his ability to stick at 3B have been questioned at time, and I think for a while in XST he was making more errors than he was getting hits. So "great hands" and "good range" are very nice qualities to read about, and encouraging that his defense at 3B will be just fine.

 

The stuff about Ceda having a great spring, that's also great to read.

 

Cal, thanks for all the info and research that you pass along. Nice to get so much stuff here without doing the work of finding it!

 

Tangent question: was it you who said that Bristow and Suarez were the last trims from Peoria rotation? If so, do you know anything more about Bristow? As a 5th rounder, if I thought he was healthy I'd be interested. Maybe he's just fine and will emerge later, although if he's been 100% for ages it's perhaps interesting that 7 other guys, 5 of them drafted later than him, are getting rotation jobs while he's going to XST. Perhaps given his arm issues last summer they were unnecessarily but appropriately careful, and even though his arm is 100% they brought him along more slowly this camp?

 

Which prompts a tangent thought. This has been a nice camp in terms of pitcher injuries. Often it's in spring when arm injuries manifest themselves, and guys I'd expected in a rotation show up with arm problems or need to be held back because of arm issues. for minors I usually assume there will be some openings as a result of arm problems. I know we've got Rhee with arm stuff, but we knew that going into camp.

 

So when we come out of camp where the only minor league prospects with unanticipated arm issues are Marco Carillo and perhaps Robert Hernandez, that's an extremely healthy camp for arms. Very good news.

[Wrigley Rat]

Craig - Everything you've said has merit. I appreciate your thoughts and insight. The only thing I hesitate to agree with is:

But I just think their progress will mostly be their progress, regardless of level.

I think their level has a strong influence on their progress. If they progress levels without skipping, you can sort of see when someone is ready for the next level, and occasionally can reverse those decisions if they become overwhelmed. By skipping levels, it has sometimes had the effect of shocking a player and causing them to doubt their abilities and sometimes make major changes to their delivery, arm slot, etc. These can have lasting effects. I am not trying to convince everyone that I am right, but I sure wish the Cubs would at least give every player a small amount of time at every level and try to make it somewhat age-appropriate. Searle in Daytona really bugs me - why do it? What is so wrong with him in Peoria? If he can't handle the cold spring, what makes the organization so sure he can handle the cold Chicago spring? Ramble, ramble, soap box...

[Ryno12]

This is from Kevin Goldstein at BP on Starlin's assignment in Daytona.

 

SS Starlin Castro, Cubs: High-A Dayton

Castro hit .311/.364/.464 in the Arizona Summer League last year, so this three-level jump to High-A is one of the bigger shocks to be found, especially considering that 2008 first-round pick Ryan Flaherty, a 22-year-old polished college shortstop out of Vanderbilt, will be manning the position at A-ball a level behind him. Castro certainly has the tools—he's a flashy defender with gap power and a bit of speed, and the Cubs must have seen something in him this spring to inspire such a confident assignment.

 

Nothing real new here, but I'm excited about this kid.

[Guest]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/859209.html

 

ITI story about Mark Riggins' thoughts on the Tennessee pitching staff.

 

Apparently Marcos Mateo was supposed to break with Tennessee but due to a shoulder injury, was forced to rehab which is why he's with Daytona. This opened up a starting spot for Casey Lambert.

 

Apparently James Russell's curveball has progressed quite a bit, which doesn't help explain his poor performance at Tennessee thus far.

 

Hung-Wen Chen is 88-92 mph on the FB with a split and slider.

[craig]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/859209.html

 

ITI story about Mark Riggins' thoughts on the Tennessee pitching staff.

 

...

Hung-Wen Chen is 88-92 mph on the FB with a split and slider.

 

My friend went to the Tenn game yesterday to check out Chen, and was less impressed. Obviously it wasn't Chen at his best (he allowed 5 runs). Here is what he wrote:

 

"craig convinced me to go check out Chen today, and he's really not anything special. His fastball was basically 84-87 most of the game, hitting 88 and 89 a couple of times. He's also got a good mid 70's curveball that got some guys fishing. His first two innings were pretty solid but he started losing the strike zone in the third inning, falling behind several hitters, and paying the price for it. The key hit in the third inning for the Jaxx was an 86 mph chest high hit me fastball that was nailed to the RF wall and doubled in two runs."

[Guest]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/859209.html

 

ITI story about Mark Riggins' thoughts on the Tennessee pitching staff.

 

...

Hung-Wen Chen is 88-92 mph on the FB with a split and slider.

 

My friend went to the Tenn game yesterday to check out Chen, and was less impressed. Obviously it wasn't Chen at his best (he allowed 5 runs). Here is what he wrote:

 

"craig convinced me to go check out Chen today, and he's really not anything special. His fastball was basically 84-87 most of the game, hitting 88 and 89 a couple of times. He's also got a good mid 70's curveball that got some guys fishing. His first two innings were pretty solid but he started losing the strike zone in the third inning, falling behind several hitters, and paying the price for it. The key hit in the third inning for the Jaxx was an 86 mph chest high hit me fastball that was nailed to the RF wall and doubled in two runs."

 

Well, I liked 88-92 a whole lot more than 84-87. I remember when Chen was signed two years ago, Steve Wilson was saying he was 89-93.

 

Isn't Tennessee's gun slow? I'll cling to hope of that, because at 88-92, he's got a chance to be a reliever in the big leagues.

[Wrigley Rat]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/859209.html

 

ITI story about Mark Riggins' thoughts on the Tennessee pitching staff.

 

Apparently Marcos Mateo was supposed to break with Tennessee but due to a shoulder injury, was forced to rehab which is why he's with Daytona. This opened up a starting spot for Casey Lambert.

 

Apparently James Russell's curveball has progressed quite a bit, which doesn't help explain his poor performance at Tennessee thus far.

 

Hung-Wen Chen is 88-92 mph on the FB with a split and slider.

Glad to hear that's why Mateo started at Daytona - I have had high hopes for him for awhile. Lambert starting seems to be a bad idea, but I'm glad they gave it a try (now we know). I think he can become a nice relief pitcher, though.

 

Why isn't Russell getting any bullpen time? I don't see him making it as a starter, but I wonder if he could pitch in relief - who knows? Chen sounds like a right-handed Pignatiello.

[craig]

Well, I liked 88-92 a whole lot more than 84-87. I remember when Chen was signed two years ago, Steve Wilson was saying he was 89-93.

 

Isn't Tennessee's gun slow? I'll cling to hope of that, because at 88-92, he's got a chance to be a reliever in the big leagues.

 

My friend wrote the following: "My mph numbers came from the gun of whoever was charting pitchers that night for the Smokies, so this wasn't a case of the slow gun at Pringles."

 

He also added that Chen only managed to get it into the upper 80's a couple of times, most were mid-80's.

 

Here are most of his notes from Coleman's game yesterday. You will note the higher velocities of the relievers and the opposing pitcher, so Coleman's modest velocity is relative to AA pitchers, not a product of a slow gun. Anyway:

 

"The hitting star for the Smokies was Tony Thomas, and he really looked great tonight, going 3 for 5 with a homer and a steal. He had two solid opposite field singles on 92 mph pitches and then crushed a 91 mph fastball over the left field wall for a no doubter home run.

...

 

Casey Coleman pitched a solid game for the Smokies. His fastball was 88-91, with a pretty decent mid 70's curve that he can throw for strikes and it looked like he flashed a low 80's slider on occasion. He seems to have good rhythm on the mound and works fairly quickly. I really don't have a good feel if his fastball has any kind of good sink to it. He got three very timely double plays tonight, and I think each of those came on a different pitch. He does seem to mix his fastball and offspeed pitches pretty well. His best inning came in the 6th where he struck out the side, mostly throwing his curve.

 

Jayson Ruhlman pitched the 7th. He was also around 88-91 and mixed in a mid 70's breaking ball.

 

The big surprise for me tonight was Vince Perkins, who was throwing gas. 93-95 mph fastball and a good mid 80's slider. He gave up a couple of scratch singles to start to load the bases with no outs, and then he struck out the next two guys, one on a 93 fastball and another on an 83 slider. A liner to Barney that ended the threat was on a 95 fastball.

 

Blake Parker closed the game. His fastball was 91-93, and he threw a couple of 81-83 sliders. He struck out the first two without much of a problem and gave up a long fly to center to end the game. "