A thought on the playoff rotation

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Blah blah blah getting ahead of yourself jinx curse blah. Get that out of the way, then consider this.

 

The Cubs will be playing in the 2008 NLDS, they will probably have time to set their rotation and they will probably have home-field.

 

Presuming we have time to set our rotation, the games would be on these dates:

 

Oct. 1 or 2 at Wrigley

Oct. 3 at Wrigley

Oct. 5 on the road

Oct. 6 on the road

Oct. 8 at Wrigley

 

Choosing the first would easily allow us to go with three starter (which I'd assume we would want to do, though maybe if it was Arizona we wouldn't want to give them the option, but I'll ignore that for now).

 

I'm going to make a case that the Cubs should do something they probably won't do: Bump Zambrano to Game 3 and live with just one start from him.

 

First, Rich Harden is the best pitcher, so you need to give yourself the best chance possible to give him two starts. That means he has to get the ball Game 1 and Game 4.

 

Then I argue that you have to start Dempster at Wrigley and not on the road. ERA doesn't seem too much different this season home/road for him, but RA tells a different story. Wrigley RA: 2.86, Road RA: 3.96. This might be a statistical fluke, but there's no way to know for sure. Zambrano has no real split over his career, a much larger sample.

 

Declaring Wrigley Dempster to be a separate pitcher from Road Dempster, we trot out the following RAs by game:

 

2.19

2.86

3.55

2.19

2.86

 

Compared with what we get if we do the more expected Zambrano/Harden/Dempster:

 

3.55

2.19

3.96

3.55

2.19

 

Or even worse, Zambrano/Harden/Dempster/Lilly:

 

3.55

2.19

3.96

4.50

3.55

 

Plus, with Zambrano only throwing one game, there's less pressure to save his arm.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think it's too small a sample to consider Dempster as 2 different pitchers. I'm fine with Harden going game 1, but I think you have to go Z in game 2.

 

If I can get back to your Arizona point, unless they fight down to the finish and wouldn't be able to bring back Haren or Webb for Oct. 1st, I'd go ahead and play on 10/2 to force them to use their 4th starter vs. Lilly. I'll take Lilly vs. Davis/Webb on 3 days/Haren on 3 days over Z vs. a fully rested Haren/Webb for the 5th game.

[Skyballer]

can we go with a 3 man for the NLDS? If so I like the Harden/Demp/Z though flipping Z and Demp doesn't bother me either.

[bukie]

can we go with a 3 man for the NLDS? If so I like the Harden/Demp/Z though flipping Z and Demp doesn't bother me either.

 

Using Harden on short rest is never, ever a good idea. Let alone anyone else.

[Skyballer]

can we go with a 3 man for the NLDS? If so I like the Harden/Demp/Z though flipping Z and Demp doesn't bother me either.

 

Using Harden on short rest is never, ever a good idea. Let alone anyone else.

So if we have Lilly, then Harden would have 4 days rest right?

[bukie]

can we go with a 3 man for the NLDS? If so I like the Harden/Demp/Z though flipping Z and Demp doesn't bother me either.

 

Using Harden on short rest is never, ever a good idea. Let alone anyone else.

So if we have Lilly, then Harden would have 4 days rest right?

Yes, a 4-man rotation in the playoffs is what almost all teams do, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2001 or something.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Assuming the dates I had were right, we could do a 3-man rotation without starting anyone on short rest.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

can we go with a 3 man for the NLDS? If so I like the Harden/Demp/Z though flipping Z and Demp doesn't bother me either.

 

Using Harden on short rest is never, ever a good idea. Let alone anyone else.

So if we have Lilly, then Harden would have 4 days rest right?

Yes, a 4-man rotation in the playoffs is what almost all teams do, except for the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2001 or something.

 

It depends on whether it's a five- or seven-game series.

 

By a quick eyeball, I counted six teams going to a three-man in 9 LDS that have gone at least four games in the last four seasons.

 

Given that most teams don't have the option of doing it on normal rest, that's quite a bit.

[Schwarber Fan]

I think we should wait and see how the rest of the season plays out for Z.

[jersey cubs fan]

Assuming the dates I had were right, we could do a 3-man rotation without starting anyone on short rest.

 

That's only if they get the Wed/Fri series though, right? Is that rotated between the league's and determined by the #1 seed?

 

I don't know if I want to try and throw Harden twice in the division series. First of all, that likely means going with the bullpen early. Secondly, it also likely means extending him in back to back games, which I'm not excited about. I'd much rather use him as a potential game 1 starter in the NLCS, in which case I'd start with Dempster, Harden, Zambrano and give Lilly a start as well. Dempster could come back in a potentail game 5 matchup, and you can start Harden on a little extra rest in game 1 of the NLCS, and then thrown him in game 5 or 6 as well.

 

The guy most likely to throw 8-9 great innings is Dempster. He is the guy you try and give extra starts to. He's also the one guy you don't owe millions to next year, so it's a little easier to risk his arm for the short-term benefit.

[Clem Fandango]

I think if Z pitches Game 1 and pitches like Cy Young again, Lou should pull him after 4 innings this year instead

[Section538]

 

 

 

Choosing the first would easily allow us to go with three starter

 

Does the team with Home Field Advantage actually get to choose their dates? I figured they were pre-set and picked by the league (TV).

[jersey cubs fan]

 

 

 

Choosing the first would easily allow us to go with three starter

 

Does the team with Home Field Advantage actually get to choose their dates? I figured they were pre-set and picked by the league (TV).

 

I vaguely remember something about the #1 seed getting to choose which series they wanted to play. I'm not sure if that's accurate or if it's still the case, but I believe last year Boston or Cleveland got the choice of playing the series that started on Wednesday or Thursday. Maybe this year it's the NL.

[jersey cubs fan]

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/sports/14234451/detail.html

 

The Red Sox also received the choice of opening the ALDS at home on either Wednesday or Thursday. Boston tonight notified Major League Baseball of its decision to play Game 1 on Wednesday at Fenway Park.

 

I guess this is what I remembered.