40 Games to Play

[Fred Hornkohl]

A prediction, based on linear extrapolation...........

 

Dangerous my friend, dangerous.

 

No, predicting is not at all dangerous. Now, betting your hard earned greenback dollars based on those predictions..... well, THAT'S dangerous !!! :wink:

[TheDude]

In doing a little research for my last post I noticed that the Cubs have a run differential of +160. The Next closest is Boston with 128. That is just sick. The Nats have a -150.

 

That shows just how good this team has been up to this point.

 

Out of curiosity, does that mean the Cubs have actually played under their pythag record for the year?

[David]

In doing a little research for my last post I noticed that the Cubs have a run differential of +160. The Next closest is Boston with 128. That is just sick. The Nats have a -150.

 

That shows just how good this team has been up to this point.

 

Out of curiosity, does that mean the Cubs have actually played under their pythag record for the year?

 

Yup...the Cubs are presently 2 games below their pythag.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

In doing a little research for my last post I noticed that the Cubs have a run differential of +160. The Next closest is Boston with 128. That is just sick. The Nats have a -150.

 

That shows just how good this team has been up to this point.

 

Out of curiosity, does that mean the Cubs have actually played under their pythag record for the year?

 

Yup...the Cubs are presently 2 games below their pythag.

are they still the only team in the division playing below? I'm far too lazy to check, and I know you have nothing better to do

[David]

nah... i do have stuff that i should be doing... i'm just choosing not to do it.

 

 

don't feel like looking at the standings again, though.

[David]

...says the guy who has 7k more posts than me in almost 2 fewer years...

 

then again, my post count really has picked up the pace since i got out of school and started working...

[Ding Dong Johnson]

...says the guy who has 7k more posts than me in almost 2 fewer years...

 

then again, my post count really has picked up the pace since i got out of school and started working...

I make more posts because I'm too lazy to go to other sites and look up numbers

 

so I looked it up, and they are still the only team in the division under

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Bruce guesses the Cubs will win 98.

 

Link.

[Brian]

Bruce guesses the Cubs will win 98.

 

Link.

 

Thanks Bruce, just phoned that into Vegas.

[CubsBears29]

Ok, down to 37 left [19 A/18 H] and sitting at 77-48.

 

IF the Cubs play to their current winning pct.s in both areas [.500 A/.730 H] the rest of the way, they'll finish either 99-63 or 100-62. Even if you scale it back a couple games (1 or 2 more losses at home and 2 or 3 more on the road), they'll still finish with at least 94/95.

 

To finish at 98-64, the Cubs have to finish the season going 22-15. Seeing as how they have 5 more games at home vs the Reds & Nationals this week and a 3-game set in Pittsburgh to start next week, an 8-0/7-1/6-2 start on that isn't that far out of the question. In fact, (including the just started set vs the Reds) 5 of our next 6 series are all very winnable, and the 4-gamer vs Philly is in Wrigley; [3 (now 2) vs Reds, 3 vs Nats, 3 @ Pitt, 4 vs Phils, 3 vs HOU, 3 @ Reds]. Even if we just win the series (split vs Philly), that'll put us at 12-7 over that stretch and 89-55. A .500 finish to the rest of the schedule [9-9] would get us to 98 wins.

 

At 98-64, Milwaukee would have to go 27-8 and StL would have to go 29-5 to keep us out of the playoffs.

 

 

Still doing my best to not look ahead and start counting chickens, but man oh man is getting harder and harder to keep from thinking we're at least assured a clinch of the wild card spot.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Short of a monumental collapse the likes of which even the Cubs have never managed, we're in. It's that simple. If the '69 Cubs had the Wild Card to fall back on, they would have made it too.

 

Unfortunately, the fortunes and legacy of the greatest Cubs team of most of our lifetimes will now be resting in a short-series coinflip :(

 

I think we can say with confidence the Cubs are the best team in the National League. The Brewers have a thin case, but it gets blown away by the sweep and the 120-run-differential difference.

 

What has being the clear best team in the NL gotten teams lately?

 

2007- no clear best

2006- Mets got clipped in 7 in the NLCS by the sham champion Cardinals

2005- A legit great Cardinals team went down in six in the NLCS to a team they finished 11 games ahead of in the regular season

2004- 105 wins, something even this years' Cubs probably can't manage, and did win the pennant

2003- Braves and Giants win 101 and 100, get punked by two teams that couldn't even win 90, only to have the NLCS mysteriously cancelled halfway through.

[chuckywang]

You know something, I hope the Mets build up another good lead in the NL East and then get swept in 4 by the Cubs to epically collapse again. Wouldn't that make for an amazing story?

[David]

You know something, I hope the Mets build up another good lead in the NL East and then get swept in 4 by the Cubs to epically collapse again. Wouldn't that make for an amazing story?

 

 

It'll take a lot of luck to sweep the Mets with all our starters resting up for the NLDS.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Now we have 33 games. If the Cubs simply go 17-16 over this final stretch, we'll have a 96-66 record. To catch us, the Brewers would have to go 21-11.

 

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

[BCVM22]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

[Guest]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

 

If some crash does come, you'd feel just as bad if you were pessimistic or realistic.

[chuckywang]

Now we have 33 games. If the Cubs simply go 17-16 over this final stretch, we'll have a 96-66 record. To catch us, the Brewers would have to go 21-11.

 

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Well, if you want to know, bigger baseball collapses have occurred. One just last season.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Bruce says 98, eh?

 

                                 remaining     expected      projected
Opponent          record     pct     games       (W/L)          totals

Cincinnati          7- 5   0.583         3     1.7- 1.3       8.7- 6.3
Houston             6- 6   0.500         6     3.0- 3.0       9.0- 9.0
Milwaukee           6- 4   0.600         6     3.6- 2.4       9.6- 6.4
Pittsburgh         11- 4   0.733         3     2.2- 0.8      13.2- 4.8
St. Louis           5- 4   0.556         6     3.3- 2.7       8.3- 6.7
Atlanta             6- 0   1.000                              6.0- 0.0
Florida             4- 3   0.571                              4.0- 3.0
Washington          2- 3   0.400         1     0.4- 0.6       2.4- 3.6
NY Mets             2- 0   1.000         4     4.0- 0.0       6.0- 0.0
Philadelphia        1- 2   0.333         4     1.3- 2.7       2.3- 4.7
Arizona             4- 2   0.667                              4.0- 2.0
Colorado            5- 1   0.833                              5.0- 1.0
Los Angeles         5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Diego           5- 2   0.714                              5.0- 2.0
San Francisco       4- 3   0.571                              4.0- 3.0
white sox           3- 3   0.500                              3.0- 3.0
Baltimore           1- 2   0.333                              1.0- 2.0
Tampa Bay           0- 3   0.000                              0.0- 3.0
Toronto             2- 1   0.667                              2.0- 1.0


totals             79-50   0.612        33    19.5-13.5      98.5-63.5

[CubmanPi]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

 

If some crash does come, you'd feel just as bad if you were pessimistic or realistic.

 

I realized this a little earlier in the year, and since then, I've really had no idea how to approach this season. The expectation to win is so foreign.

[shnsajax]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

 

I'm just ignoring everything. I know about but I am pretending I don't.

[Jehrico]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

Exactly. Stay in your comfort zone.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm starting to feel very confident and I don't know how to handle it.

 

Just do what I do and stay pessimistic. It's more familiar, and not only will you not be surprised if the collapse comes, but you'll be pleasantly surprised if the crash never happens. Win/win.

Exactly. Stay in your comfort zone.

 

To a CUBS fan..... there is no such thing as a comfort zone !! :wink:

[badger1679666666]

When is the last time the cubs were 30 games over .500?

[erik316wttn]

When is the last time the cubs were 30 games over .500?

 

84?

[FergieJ31]

When is the last time the cubs were 30 games over .500?

 

2nd to last game in 84 put them 30 over:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN198409290.shtml

 

The last game put them 31 over.