Run differential !!!

[mordecaibrown]

The Cubs are at least 20+ runs up on every team in baseball.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[JGalt73]

Here are BP's Adjusted Equivalent run differentials. These may add a bit more objectivity for how runs are scored and against (and by) whom.

 

Equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed (equivalent runs, generated from the opponent's batting line) adjusted for strength of schedule.

 

The Cubs are tops in the NL, well ahead in the division, and 3rd in baseball (behind Boston and Tampa Bay).

 

NL East

Braves 32

Phillies 31

Mets 12

Marlins -12

Nationals -107

 

NL Central

Cubs 61

Cardinals 3

Brewers 3

Reds -28

Astros -39

Pirates -39

 

NL West

Diamondbacks 14

Dodgers -4

Rockies -16

Giants -29

Padres -46

 

AL East

Red_Sox 107

Rays 84

Yankees 37

Blue_Jays 30

Orioles -1

 

AL Central

White_Sox 54

Tigers 9

Indians -22

Royals -31

Twins -48

 

AL West

Athletics 50

Angels 6

Rangers -10

Mariners -64

[mcgoobs]

Here are BP's Adjusted Equivalent run differentials. These may add a bit more objectivity for how runs are scored and against (and by) whom.

 

Equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed (equivalent runs, generated from the opponent's batting line) adjusted for strength of schedule.

 

The Cubs are tops in the NL, well ahead in the division, and 3rd in baseball (behind Boston and Tampa Bay).

 

...

 

NL Central

Cubs 61

Cardinals 3

Brewers 3

Reds -28

Astros -39

Pirates -39

 

...

 

When the simple run differential of a team suggests a W-L that is below where the team's record is, usually that team is expected to regress over the coming months. Does the same hold true for BP's Adjusted Equivalent Runs? If so it would say that the Cardinals are not as good as the 12 games over .500 that their current record indicates.

[Brett]

Wow! Look at the rest of the NL Central. That's unbelievable.

[JGalt73]

When the simple run differential of a team suggests a W-L that is below where the team's record is, usually that team is expected to regress over the coming months. Does the same hold true for BP's Adjusted Equivalent Runs? If so it would say that the Cardinals are not as good as the 12 games over .500 that their current record indicates.

 

Yep. The Cardinals are outperforming their predicted adjusted record by 5.7 wins and 'should be' a .500 team. Though, the Cubs are also a bit 'lucky' and should be 3.3 games worse than they currently are. The whole NL Central is outplaying its numbers.

 

NL Central Current Predicted Standings w/ (AE)RS/(AE)RA (above/below actual record difference)

Cubs 46-29 (+3.3)

Cardinals 38-38 (+5.7)

Brewers 37-37 (+2.7)

Reds 35-41 (0.0)

Astros 34-41 (+0.5)

Pirates 30-45 (+5.8)

[CubbieBum]

When the simple run differential of a team suggests a W-L that is below where the team's record is, usually that team is expected to regress over the coming months. Does the same hold true for BP's Adjusted Equivalent Runs? If so it would say that the Cardinals are not as good as the 12 games over .500 that their current record indicates.

 

Yep. The Cardinals are outperforming their predicted adjusted record by 5.7 wins and 'should be' a .500 team. Though, the Cubs are also a bit 'lucky' and should be 3.3 games worse than they currently are. The whole NL Central is outplaying its numbers.

 

NL Central Current Predicted Standings w/ (AE)RS/(AE)RA (above/below actual record difference)

Cubs 46-29 (+3.3)

Cardinals 38-38 (+5.7)

Brewers 37-37 (+2.7)

Reds 35-41 (0.0)

Astros 34-41 (+0.5)

Pirates 30-45 (+5.8)

 

Every year teams outplay there numbers that's why I don't care about stats like this. Arizona won what 30 games by one run last year I bet they played well over their numbers.

[chuckywang]

Anybody else find it annoying that the Rangers have scored more runs than the Cubs?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Anybody else find it annoying that the Rangers have scored more runs than the Cubs?

 

Their ballpark is quite conducive to scoring runs.

[Jehrico]

Anybody else find it annoying that the Rangers have scored more runs than the Cubs?

 

Their ballpark is quite conducive to scoring runs.

That's true, and funny when you look at Soriano. That had alot to do with why I was always so low on Soriano before we got him, he wasn't that great in their stadium when he was there. As a result, I always took his season with the Nats as an aberration. For some reason, he just never could get into a good groove in Texas, and he's been much better since leaving there.

[CubinNY]

When the simple run differential of a team suggests a W-L that is below where the team's record is, usually that team is expected to regress over the coming months. Does the same hold true for BP's Adjusted Equivalent Runs? If so it would say that the Cardinals are not as good as the 12 games over .500 that their current record indicates.

 

Yep. The Cardinals are outperforming their predicted adjusted record by 5.7 wins and 'should be' a .500 team. Though, the Cubs are also a bit 'lucky' and should be 3.3 games worse than they currently are. The whole NL Central is outplaying its numbers.

 

NL Central Current Predicted Standings w/ (AE)RS/(AE)RA (above/below actual record difference)

Cubs 46-29 (+3.3)

Cardinals 38-38 (+5.7)

Brewers 37-37 (+2.7)

Reds 35-41 (0.0)

Astros 34-41 (+0.5)

Pirates 30-45 (+5.8)

I've written it before but it bears repeating. The correlations you are reporting have extremely low predictive value with such small sample sizes. What the Cubs or any other team "should" do is what they have done to this point. Pyth. record as statistic has @.03 correlation to actual wins until around 120 games.

 

Edit: That's not to say that having a + sized run differential isn't a good thing, because it is. The bigger the better.

[Fro]

Anybody else find it annoying that the Rangers have scored more runs than the Cubs?

 

Give us a DH and we'd be ahead of them.

[NCCubFan]

Anybody else find it annoying that the Rangers have scored more runs than the Cubs?

No. As long as the Cubs have the best record in baseball I could care less that an AL team that we don't play this year has scored more.