BP on Marmol

[TruffleShuffle]

The Cubs have gone 10-8 in one-run games, a far cry from Atlanta's horrific 3-17 mark, and perhaps the chief reason for that success has been Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol. In last week's Baseball Prospectus chat with WGN broadcaster Len Kasper, a reader dubbed Marmol "The Wolf," after the Pulp Fiction character, due to Marmol's ability to clean up messes. That nickname is apt, for Marmol has allowed just two of 16 inherited runners to score this season, or 4.2 fewer than average, the highest positive differential in the NL. Marmol has tossed 40 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, second only to Franquelis Osoria's 44 1/3 in the NL, and has allowed just 32 walks + hits and 10 runs. He ranks second in the majors in WXRL to Brad Lidge, and is well out in front with 16.9 ARP. That puts Marmol on pace to prevent 42.1 more runs than the average reliever this season, which would be the ninth best season in the BP database (since 1959). All eight pitchers ahead of him threw at least 123 2/3 innings, while Marmol is on track for 100. The 25-year-old Dominican right-hander has also struck out 60 so far, which projected over a full season would lead to 150 strikeouts, a plateau that just five relievers in history have reached.

 

that is good pitching.

[CubbieBum]

 

that is good pitching.

 

that is Marmol

[Clem Fandango]

 

that is good pitching.

 

that is Marmol

 

That is The Wolf.

 

I kinda like that nickname, solely for the source reference. It makes good sense

[imb]

that's all you had to say

[Clem Fandango]

that's all you had to say

 

Please. Pretty please. With a cherry on top. Don't give up any effin runs.

[Moises a loo]

Well, let's not start printing WS tix quite yet.

[Tracer Bullet]

Well, let's not start printing WS tix quite yet.

 

This particular quote loses a little in the translation

[Mizzou]

The Wolf, that's pretty awesome.

 

And we're only 10-8 in one run games? Seems like our record should be much better than that.

[shnsajax]

The Wolf, that's pretty awesome.

 

And we're only 10-8 in one run games? Seems like our record should be much better than that.

 

That was my thought too

[Transmogrified Tiger]

By my selective memory, we've had a fair number of one run games where we've added one or two in the last couple innings. I imagine our record in games where it was 1 run in the 7th has quite a few more wins.

[TheDude]

By my selective memory, we've had a fair number of one run games where we've added one or two in the last couple innings. I imagine our record in games where it was 1 run in the 7th has quite a few more wins.

 

I'm curious how many of those one run game losses are due to shoddy defense (which isn't always noted with box score errors). It seems at least 3 from off-the-top memory.

 

It's really a moot point, as every team has losses from defensive woes. Just seems like the Cubs have a knack for 8th and 9th inning defensive mistakes in close games this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By my selective memory, we've had a fair number of one run games where we've added one or two in the last couple innings. I imagine our record in games where it was 1 run in the 7th has quite a few more wins.

 

And that's exactly why there's no real correlation to winning one-run games and being good at baseball. If your middle relief sucks, they can turn a 5-2 lead into a 5-4 win just as easily as they can turn a 3-2 lead into a 4-3 loss.

 

10-8 is pretty much right where you'd expect a team of our caliber to be.

[rawaction]

Relax. Chill them ****** out! I'm sending the Wolf to help you out.

 

You sendin' the Wolf? **** Negro! That's all you had to say!

[twothousandfive]

And that's exactly why there's no real correlation to winning one-run games and being good at baseball.

 

I suspect, though, there is a correlation between inherited runners stranded and close wins -- however that can be defined. If you buy the argument that Kerry Wood's wildness requires room for error (such as entering with the bases empty) while Marmol can excel without that room for error, then they are in the correct roles. I'm not sure that even expanding the stats to include HBP really support that, though. Wood's K/BB ration is better. Marmol's K/9 is notably better. Which sort of ends up in the best spot, anyway.

 

With runners, the best outs are strikeouts, since the ability to advance on a K is very limited.