Should Theriot go back to leading off?

[nilodnayr]

Apparently, playing the best players doesn't matter. What matters is what feels fair to the ballplayers and respecting defined roles.

 

Dusty Baker you should be managing your team right now!!! Get off the interwebs! Shame on you.

[bring stone back]

Apparently, playing the best players doesn't matter. What matters is what feels fair to the ballplayers and respecting defined roles.

 

So in your opinion, Ryan Theriot does not deserve to play then?

[nilodnayr]

Apparently, playing the best players doesn't matter. What matters is what feels fair to the ballplayers and respecting defined roles.

 

So in your opinion, Ryan Theriot does not deserve to play then?

 

Play? Yes. Consistantly play over players that are better than him? No.

[Colin Wyers]

Apparently, playing the best players doesn't matter. What matters is what feels fair to the ballplayers and respecting defined roles.

 

So in your opinion, Ryan Theriot does not deserve to play then?

 

Is this Little League? Are we trying to be fair?

 

The argument has nothing to do with what Ryan Theriot does and does not deserve. Neither of them deserve the position, and to be quite frank it's not reassuring that management went into the season with the two of them as our only realistic options at shortstop. It's about playing your best players in order to put yourself in position to win the most baseball games. Cedeno has been a better hitter, fielder and baserunner than Theriot, and if you start looking past AVG/OBP (the ONLY things that Theriot's defenders will ever bring up) to things like fielding prowess and baserunning and, oh, extra base hits, the difference becomes even more pronounced.

 

And, fine, all of it's a small sample size. But going on Theriot's performance last season it's hard to make a case for Theriot being the starting shortstop that doesn't require ignoring his on-field performance.

[bring stone back]

Apparently, playing the best players doesn't matter. What matters is what feels fair to the ballplayers and respecting defined roles.

 

So in your opinion, Ryan Theriot does not deserve to play then?

 

Is this Little League? Are we trying to be fair?

 

The argument has nothing to do with what Ryan Theriot does and does not deserve. Neither of them deserve the position, and to be quite frank it's not reassuring that management went into the season with the two of them as our only realistic options at shortstop. It's about playing your best players in order to put yourself in position to win the most baseball games. Cedeno has been a better hitter, fielder and baserunner than Theriot, and if you start looking past AVG/OBP (the ONLY things that Theriot's defenders will ever bring up) to things like fielding prowess and baserunning and, oh, extra base hits, the difference becomes even more pronounced.

 

And, fine, all of it's a small sample size. But going on Theriot's performance last season it's hard to make a case for Theriot being the starting shortstop that doesn't require ignoring his on-field performance.

 

No, this isn't little leagues and I'm not "trying to be fair" - I'm basing playing time based on production. Right now Theriot is producing and should (not deserve) but should be playing. Frankly, Cedeno should be, as well at 2B for the time being.

 

(I wish Cedeno was really good defensively as a lot of you think. He's got good range and a good arm but how soon we forget about the inconsistencies and errant throws he displayed so often in the past and did tonight).

 

Using the argument you laid out above - Reed Johnson should also be starting every day, right? This isn't the little leagues, they should play the best players who give them the best chance to win, correct?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Using the argument you laid out above - Reed Johnson should also be starting every day, right? This isn't the little leagues, they should play the best players who give them the best chance to win, correct?

 

That's a terrible interpretation of the argument laid out above.

[MPrior]

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but it needs to be said. The decision of whom to play should not depend on their stats so far. It should depend on who is expected to be better from this day forward. Citing Theriot's current OBP is just as poor an argument as citing Cedeno's current gaudy statistics. Cedeno has clearly demonstrated himself to be better than Theriot in nearly all important aspects of the game - and there are years' worth of PA's and scouting reports to support this, not just a month's worth of scattered PA's. Therefore, Cedeno is the one who should be expected to perform better. Therefore, he should play.

[Colin Wyers]

So in your opinion, Ryan Theriot does not deserve to play then?

 

Is this Little League? Are we trying to be fair?

 

The argument has nothing to do with what Ryan Theriot does and does not deserve. Neither of them deserve the position, and to be quite frank it's not reassuring that management went into the season with the two of them as our only realistic options at shortstop. It's about playing your best players in order to put yourself in position to win the most baseball games. Cedeno has been a better hitter, fielder and baserunner than Theriot, and if you start looking past AVG/OBP (the ONLY things that Theriot's defenders will ever bring up) to things like fielding prowess and baserunning and, oh, extra base hits, the difference becomes even more pronounced.

 

And, fine, all of it's a small sample size. But going on Theriot's performance last season it's hard to make a case for Theriot being the starting shortstop that doesn't require ignoring his on-field performance.

 

No, this isn't little leagues and I'm not "trying to be fair" - I'm basing playing time based on production. Right now Theriot is producing and should (not deserve) but should be playing. Frankly, Cedeno should be, as well at 2B for the time being.

 

(I wish Cedeno was really good defensively as a lot of you think. He's got good range and a good arm but how soon we forget about the inconsistencies and errant throws he displayed so often in the past and did tonight).

 

Using the argument you laid out above - Reed Johnson should also be starting every day, right? This isn't the little leagues, they should play the best players who give them the best chance to win, correct?

 

Sigh.

 

Season to date (prior to tonight's game) against RHP:

 

Reed Johnson - .274/.319/.323, .641 OPS

Felix Pie - .250/.333/.341, .674 OPS

 

Pie has been more productive than Johnson vs. right-handed pitching. (Pie is also better defensively and running the bases.) The most viable arrangement is to use them in a straight platoon. So that's a straw man arguement.

 

As far as your implication that we should essentially bench DeRosa in favor of Theriot, well, season to date:

 

Theriot: .322/.397/.421, .818 OPS

DeRosa: .259/.381/.398, .779 OPS

 

So let me get this straight. You're arguing that we should bench someone who DIDN'T suck last season in preference of someone who DID, for under .040 points of OPS. Nevermind that Theriot's production requires that he sustain a batting average over .300 to keep his numbers better than DeRosa's.

[TruffleShuffle]

i would just like to inject that while everyone assumes that theriot's 2007 performance is the "norm" for him, his expected BABIP - i won't bother getting into the formulas, since nobody really agrees on the best one - was anywhere from 30 to 40 points higher than his actual BABIP last year. so theriot really "should" have had another 15 to 20 hits last year (I'll assume 16 - all singles.) so with neutral luck, his line would've been:

 

.296/.353/.374 last year, which is a lot better than the actual line of .266/.326/.346.

[sneakypower]

i would just like to inject that while everyone assumes that theriot's 2007 performance is the "norm" for him, his expected BABIP - i won't bother getting into the formulas, since nobody really agrees on the best one - was anywhere from 30 to 40 points higher than his actual BABIP last year. so theriot really "should" have had another 15 to 20 hits last year (I'll assume 16 - all singles.) so with neutral luck, his line would've been:

 

.296/.353/.374 last year, which is a lot better than the actual line of .266/.326/.346.

was it Sickels who last spring said he could very well see Theriot putting up a .280/.350/.400 line?

[TruffleShuffle]

i would just like to inject that while everyone assumes that theriot's 2007 performance is the "norm" for him, his expected BABIP - i won't bother getting into the formulas, since nobody really agrees on the best one - was anywhere from 30 to 40 points higher than his actual BABIP last year. so theriot really "should" have had another 15 to 20 hits last year (I'll assume 16 - all singles.) so with neutral luck, his line would've been:

 

.296/.353/.374 last year, which is a lot better than the actual line of .266/.326/.346.

was it Sickels who last spring said he could very well see Theriot putting up a .280/.350/.400 line?

 

yeah but sickels is probably just racist (like you and i) and loves the gritty white guy over the more talented minority.

[Abe Frohman]

I predicted Theriot would hit .280-.290 with a .350 OB%. I also never thought I would see the day that Cedeno would have to approach at the plate that he has demonstrated so far this season. His hit yesterday to drive in two was a thing of beauty.

[VanceJergins]

Categories used to pick the starter:

 

Hitting better this year: Cedeno

Defense: Cedeno

Baserunning: Cedeno

Past Performance: Neither

Potential/Age: Cedeno

 

Am I forgetting anything?

[Amazing_Grace]

Every time he's been moved to leadoff he starts hitting poorly. Leave him where he is and move Kosuke to leadoff.

[Colin Wyers]

i would just like to inject that while everyone assumes that theriot's 2007 performance is the "norm" for him, his expected BABIP - i won't bother getting into the formulas, since nobody really agrees on the best one - was anywhere from 30 to 40 points higher than his actual BABIP last year. so theriot really "should" have had another 15 to 20 hits last year (I'll assume 16 - all singles.) so with neutral luck, his line would've been:

 

.296/.353/.374 last year, which is a lot better than the actual line of .266/.326/.346.

 

For an OPS+ of 85, still well below league average - "a lot better" is an exaggeration. Theriot's "neutral luck" batting line still isn't that good if you take into account park effect and extra base hits.

 

Let's take a look at this real quick:

League average, 2007: .266/.334/.423

League average w/ park effect for Wrigley: .278/.347/.444

 

So Theriot's "neutral luck" batting line would look like .283/.336/.358 in a neutral park. Any way you slice it, his power numbers are absolutely abysmal and he hasn't shown many signs of improving them.

 

And before anyone says, "Well, shortstops don't have to hit for power," let's look at the average NL shortstop from last season:

 

.279/.337/.420

 

That's still a damn sight better than our hypothetical "neutral luck" Ryan Theriot, even if we don't bother to park adjust.

Edited May 7, 2008 by Colin Wyers

[Andy]

I'm thinking Theriot should play 2B and Cedeno SS until one of them cools off, then find a spot for DeRosa.

[Colin Wyers]

I'm thinking Theriot should play 2B and Cedeno SS until one of them cools off, then find a spot for DeRosa.

 

So you think that we should bench a guy that actually didn't suck last season in favor of one who did.

 

Theriot, season to date: .325/.397/.421

DeRosa, season to date: .259/.381/.398

 

The difference between them in production isn't that vast, and one of them is doing it without hitting for an absurdly inflated average. I'd bet on DeRosa to outhit Theriot going forward. You don't want to be riding the golden carriage when it turns into a pumpkin.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm thinking Theriot should play 2B and Cedeno SS until one of them cools off, then find a spot for DeRosa.

 

The question is...what constitutes cooling off? DeRosa is a better bet than Theriot or Cedeno to be productive, so they both better be good bets to be hot in order to stay in the lineup over him.

 

For example. Cedeno is 1 for his last 9. If you started him and he went 0 for 4, making him 1 for his last 13, would that signal the end of his hot streak?

[nilodnayr]

Catcher--Soto 5 days, Blanco 1

1B--Lee 6 days

2B--DeRosa 4 days, Theriot 2

SS--Cedeno 5 days, Theriot 1

3B--ARam 5.5 days, DeRosa .5

RF--Fukudome 6 days

CF--Pie/Johnson platoon

LF--Soriano 5.5 days, DeRosa .5

[Chocolate Milk]

i would just like to inject that while everyone assumes that theriot's 2007 performance is the "norm" for him, his expected BABIP - i won't bother getting into the formulas, since nobody really agrees on the best one - was anywhere from 30 to 40 points higher than his actual BABIP last year. so theriot really "should" have had another 15 to 20 hits last year (I'll assume 16 - all singles.) so with neutral luck, his line would've been:

 

.296/.353/.374 last year, which is a lot better than the actual line of .266/.326/.346.

 

For an OPS+ of 85, still well below league average - "a lot better" is an exaggeration. Theriot's "neutral luck" batting line still isn't that good if you take into account park effect and extra base hits.

 

Let's take a look at this real quick:

League average, 2007: .266/.334/.423

League average w/ park effect for Wrigley: .278/.347/.444

 

So Theriot's "neutral luck" batting line would look like .283/.336/.358 in a neutral park. Any way you slice it, his power numbers are absolutely abysmal and he hasn't shown many signs of improving them.

 

And before anyone says, "Well, shortstops don't have to hit for power," let's look at the average NL shortstop from last season:

 

.279/.337/.420

 

That's still a damn sight better than our hypothetical "neutral luck" Ryan Theriot, even if we don't bother to park adjust.

 

Great post.

[CubsGM]

I think moving down Soriano has to happen. Im thinking something like this

 

SS-Theriot

RF-Fukudome

1B-Lee

3B-Ramirez

C-Soto

2B-DeRosa

CF-Johnson/Pie

P-Zambrano

 

Fukudome batting 2nd is also a better idea. Cedeno can replace DeRosa if he continues struggling.

 

Thoughts?

Umm...Soriano's not in your lineup.

This lineup wins then

[inari]

I think moving down Soriano has to happen. Im thinking something like this

 

SS-Theriot

RF-Fukudome

1B-Lee

3B-Ramirez

C-Soto

2B-DeRosa

CF-Johnson/Pie

P-Zambrano

 

Fukudome batting 2nd is also a better idea. Cedeno can replace DeRosa if he continues struggling.

 

Thoughts?

Umm...Soriano's not in your lineup.

This lineup wins then

 

Wait, do you not like Alfonso Soriano or something?