BP weighs on 4th outfileder

[JGalt73]

Nate Silver[/url]"]A year ago, I might have blasted this transaction — but the platoon splits make clear that Johnson provides a pretty substantial upgrade over Pie against left-handed pitching:

 

Player AVG/ OBP/ SLG MLVr per 162 CF Defense

Pie .264/.314/.431 -.008 - 1.3 Good

Johnson .288/.359/.434 +.072 +11.7 Marginal

Murton .310/.380/.488 +.197 +31.9 Piss Poor

 

Against left-handed pitching, Johnson should be about .08 runs better per game than Pie at the plate, or the equivalent of 13 runs per season in the imaginary, Hank Blalock dystopian world in which every pitcher is left-handed. Does Pie make up those 13 runs on account of his defense and baserunning? It’s actually somewhat close, but probably not; Johnson is a competent center fielder, especially in a small outfield like Wrigley, and apart from that it probably can’t hurt Pie’s confidence to sit him against tough lefties, which means that he’ll see higher batting averages next to his name on the center field scoreboard. So, if these were the only two alternatives in the world, this would qualify as a very small upgrade for the Cubs.

 

However, there is another option in the form of Matt Murton, who is around .12 runs per game better than Johnson against left-handed pitching — the equivalent of about 20 runs per 162 games — and fully .20 runs better than Pie. Can Murton play center? Probably not in a way that most teams are willing to tolerate. But Murton could play right field — and Kosuke Fukudome could play center, which by most accounts he was able to handle competently in Japan. It’s hard to imagine that a Johnson/Fukudome outfield is fully 20 runs per season better with the glove than Fukudome/Murton; it’s not like Reed Johnson is Gary Maddox out thee. And here, the clubhouse externalities work in the opposite direction, because by acquiring Johnson, you’ve made clear to Murton just how unimportant a part of the club’s future he is.

 

It’s not a bad acquisition in the abstract so much as an uncreative use of resources, which has become something of a hallmark for the Cubs.

[Tracer Bullet]

"uncreative use of resources" is a terribly tame way of putting it.

[Abe Frohman]

EXCELLENT analysis by Nate.

[CubinNY]

That's a real interesting article. The question I have is does this type of analysis discount the idea that Pie will make progress if given more opportunities? I have several other questions too:

 

Is a platoon good for a young/developing player like Pie?

What are the opportunity costs for paying two players to do one job?

What does this do for Pie's trade value?

 

I guess it's good to have a guy like Johnson who can play multiple OF positions, but let's not forget he was just released by another team, a team with a semi-competent JM to boot.

 

This discussion has been going around in several other threads, it's good to have one place to discuss it

[jersey cubs fan]

Is a platoon good for a young/developing player like Pie?

What are the opportunity costs for paying two players to do one job?

What does this do for Pie's trade value?

 

It's hard to say if it's good or not, my guess is that it's neither good nor bad, as any benefits are offset by costs. I think that as long as a guy still gets ~450 PA, and isn't jerked around into a bunch of different roles, a platoon can be a fine way to introduce a young player into the majors. (I would also think that if there's much hope for a future as an all-around player, that platoon better end quickly, otherwise it will be a self-fulfillng prophecy).

 

I don't think there are any opportunity costs spending $1.2m + $350,000 to fill the CF spot, in general. The cost to the Cubs is likely Matt Murton, or whatever $1-X they are forced to take in a trade of Murton.

 

I don't think it does much, yet. If somebody really wanted him, they would have had to offer Hendry a heck of a lot. If, going forward, it looks like he can't even handle a platoon role, his value will plummet. If he does really well in the role, his value may very well increase.

[Abe Frohman]

Is a platoon good for a young/developing player like Pie?

 

Good question. Only time will tell, but I have a feeling that if Pie plays against RHP and gets in a groove, he would benefit by easing in to face LHP. No telling, but his stats indicate that he has trouble with southpaws.

 

What are the opportunity costs for paying two players to do one job?

 

League minimum plus the 1.whatever million they signed Johnson for. Like Nate Silver said, I wonder why the Cubs didn't just shift one of their two corner OFers to CF (since they both could play the position) and allow Murton to play RF or LF. I think Murton would offensively benefit the team more than Pie/Johnson, and he isn't really a butcher in LF. I hate seeing a hitter like Murton getting wasted.

 

What does this do for Pie's trade value?

 

Who wants a guy who can only hit RHP for anything other than a bench piece?

[davearm2]

I wonder if Lou will consider sitting Pie AND Fukudome against tough lefties, moving Johnson to CF, DeRosa to RF, and Cedeno to 2B.

 

We'll have to wait and see how Fukudome's splits are, but that's quite possibly a better alignment than the two Silver compared.

[CoolHandLuke]

I wonder if Lou will consider sitting Pie AND Fukudome against tough lefties, moving Johnson to CF, DeRosa to RF, and Cedeno to 2B.

 

We'll have to wait and see how Fukudome's splits are, but that's quite possibly a better alignment than the two Silver compared.

 

It better not be, or that is one hell of an expensive platoon player.

[davearm2]

I wonder if Lou will consider sitting Pie AND Fukudome against tough lefties, moving Johnson to CF, DeRosa to RF, and Cedeno to 2B.

 

We'll have to wait and see how Fukudome's splits are, but that's quite possibly a better alignment than the two Silver compared.

 

It better not be, or that is one hell of an expensive platoon player.

I wasn't suggesting a traditional platoon.

 

What I was suggesting is that it might make the most sense for Lou to fit in Fukudome's 1 or 2 days off per month on games when there's a tough LHP going.

 

These happen to be days when we should anticipate Pie to be sitting also.

 

Thus, Silver's plan to have Fukudome in CF when Pie sits pretty much falls apart.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wonder if Lou will consider sitting Pie AND Fukudome against tough lefties, moving Johnson to CF, DeRosa to RF, and Cedeno to 2B.

 

We'll have to wait and see how Fukudome's splits are, but that's quite possibly a better alignment than the two Silver compared.

 

It better not be, or that is one hell of an expensive platoon player.

I wasn't suggesting a traditional platoon.

 

What I was suggesting is that it might make the most sense for Lou to fit in Fukudome's 1 or 2 days off per month on games when there's a tough LHP going.

 

These happen to be days when we should anticipate Pie to be sitting also.

 

Thus, Silver's plan to have Fukudome in CF when Pie sits pretty much falls apart.

 

Fukudome better not be sitting more than a handful of games this year. When he does sit, there's no reason Pie couldn't play. You can't sit him against all lefties.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons Fukudome signed with the Cubs (and the Cubs were not the highest bidder) was a promise to play RF. Under Silver's propostion Fukudome would be in CF quite a bit, so basically the Cubs should renege on their promise?

[TruffleShuffle]

If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons Fukudome signed with the Cubs (and the Cubs were not the highest bidder) was a promise to play RF. Under Silver's propostion Fukudome would be in CF quite a bit, so basically the Cubs should renege on their promise?

 

no, just stop making promises like that in the first place.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons Fukudome signed with the Cubs (and the Cubs were not the highest bidder) was a promise to play RF. Under Silver's propostion Fukudome would be in CF quite a bit, so basically the Cubs should renege on their promise?

 

no, just stop making promises like that in the first place.

 

Then you wouldn't get players to sign below market value(market value in this case a less attractive deal on the table)

[KingCubsFan]

If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons Fukudome signed with the Cubs (and the Cubs were not the highest bidder) was a promise to play RF. Under Silver's propostion Fukudome would be in CF quite a bit, so basically the Cubs should renege on their promise?

 

no, just stop making promises like that in the first place.

 

Then you wouldn't get players to sign below market value(market value in this case a less attractive deal on the table)

That's why Silver's analysis of the situation is pretty worthless

[davearm2]

I wonder if Lou will consider sitting Pie AND Fukudome against tough lefties, moving Johnson to CF, DeRosa to RF, and Cedeno to 2B.

 

We'll have to wait and see how Fukudome's splits are, but that's quite possibly a better alignment than the two Silver compared.

 

It better not be, or that is one hell of an expensive platoon player.

I wasn't suggesting a traditional platoon.

 

What I was suggesting is that it might make the most sense for Lou to fit in Fukudome's 1 or 2 days off per month on games when there's a tough LHP going.

 

These happen to be days when we should anticipate Pie to be sitting also.

 

Thus, Silver's plan to have Fukudome in CF when Pie sits pretty much falls apart.

 

Fukudome better not be sitting more than a handful of games this year. When he does sit, there's no reason Pie couldn't play. You can't sit him against all lefties.

Personally, I'd be thrilled if nobody on the Cubs started 150 games. Everybody benefits from a couple of days off a month, even beyond the travel days.

 

And Fukudome probably could use a few more than most, given the transition he's making.

 

With Johnson onboard now, I'd be fine with Pie sitting against every LHP. That amounts to what, 30 or 40 games? Fine by me. Johnson's a solid player that really excels against LHP. Keep throwing him out there, I say.

[TruffleShuffle]

If I'm not mistaken, one of the reasons Fukudome signed with the Cubs (and the Cubs were not the highest bidder) was a promise to play RF. Under Silver's propostion Fukudome would be in CF quite a bit, so basically the Cubs should renege on their promise?

 

no, just stop making promises like that in the first place.

 

Then you wouldn't get players to sign below market value(market value in this case a less attractive deal on the table)

 

yeah the cubs have really gotten a lot of bargain deals in the free agent market with their "we'll do anything you ask us to, and by the way here's a no-trade clause for your troubles" approach

[Banghart]

yeah the cubs have really gotten a lot of bargain deals in the free agent market with their "we'll do anything you ask us to, and by the way here's a no-trade clause for your troubles" approach

While I don't like all the handshake deals that the Cubs seem to make, it did help them in the case if you believe published reports at the time of the signing. The Cubs were according to those reports not the highest bidder, and that the Cubs promise to play him in RF was a big factor in signing with a non-coastal team for less money.

[Cubway]

Who the heck is Reed Johnson? Another average player who is going to keep some young player from moving up in the system.

[mcgoobs]

Who the heck is Reed Johnson? Another average player who is going to keep some young player from moving up in the system.

 

That's what Silver was talking about when he said "uncreative use of resources."

[WilcoFan]

yeah the cubs have really gotten a lot of bargain deals in the free agent market with their "we'll do anything you ask us to, and by the way here's a no-trade clause for your troubles" approach

 

Wasn't it widely reported that the White Sox actually offered more money, but wanted Fukudome to play center, and that's why he took the Cubs' offer?

[NCCubFan]

What does this do for Pie's trade value?

Completely irrelevant, since the Cubs aren't trading Pie.