Can Theriot actually be adequate?

[UK1679666180]

Completely forget all the talk about Cedeno's ceiling/floor vs. Theriot's ceiling/floor. Right now, at this very moment, Cedeno is a better bet to produce this year than Theriot is.

 

Why would you ignore it?

 

Cedeno has a lower floor than Theriot and combine that with bad defense and I'll take the safer bet. Sure he has more pop in the bat, but neither one are likely to hit for a high avg. and Theriot has a better approach.

 

If Cedeno was better with the glove, I'd go with him.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

but neither one are likely to hit for a high avg..

.

This is meaningless.

[UK1679666180]

The ability to hit for avg. has value, the ability to assume that I am overstating its value should not be applied here.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Cedeno could've proven by now that defensively he was less prone to mistakes on routine plays, I would be willing to accept the higher risk/reward offense he could provide.

 

Combine the possibility that he might be worse offensively than Theriot in the short-term and more likely to struggle defensively, I would prob. go with Theriot.

 

agreed. cedeno makes too many fielding and baserunning mistakes, and in 2006 he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. the two guys have roughly the same amount of PAs in the majors; Theriot's big league EqA is .260 while Cedeno's is .214. that's right, .214. with theriot you know what you're going to get, and it's mediocrity, but it's not a complete black hole. cedeno could be a better player, but we've got more than a year of major league sample size to look at, and he's been far worse in that time. for a team that is in contention right now, i don't know if you have another year to see if he will sink or swim.

 

He was 23!!!

 

yes, he was. the guy who was the best player in the national league last year was 24. i understand that most guys don't hit their peak until their late 20s; however, the chances of a guy becoming successful in the major leagues after being one of the worst players in baseball for a full season are very slim.

 

Most organizations don't misjudge a player's value so severely that they bring him up that much before he is ready. Or on the flip side most organizations are dumb enough to write off a player after one awful season in the majors.

[Illini Iceman]

but neither one are likely to hit for a high avg..

.

This is meaningless.

Well, duh. Based on your theory Ping only likes Theriot better because he is the white guy.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

The only reason Theriot hits for a higher average is that he compacts his swing to put more contact on the ball...his OBP is purely average driven. Yes, this can be said for Cedeno as well, but he can at least bring some slugging value to the plate.

[TruffleShuffle]

The only reason Theriot hits for a higher average is that he compacts his swing to put more contact on the ball...his OBP is purely average driven. Yes, this can be said for Cedeno as well, but he can at least bring some slugging value to the plate.

 

not a great argument for your side, considering that theriot has always walked at a higher rate than cedeno.

[UK1679666180]

The only reason Theriot hits for a higher average is that he compacts his swing to put more contact on the ball...his OBP is purely average driven. Yes, this can be said for Cedeno as well, but he can at least bring some slugging value to the plate.

 

Theriot draws BBs at a higher rate as well.

 

In 2323 PAs in the minors Theriot drew 260 BBs

 

In 2205 PAs in the minors Cedeno drew 141 BBs.

[Tyrant]

but neither one are likely to hit for a high avg..

.

This is meaningless.

 

Not entirely, no. All OBPs are driven by batting average, to some extent. Generally (and I know there are some exceptions) most guys who have very low batting averages and high OBPs have prodigious power.

 

Since Cedeno and Theriot are both low-slugging players, they need a decent average to sustain their OBP. So, PingHitter is right -- Theriot's ability to hit for a higher average is useful here.

[TruffleShuffle]

If Cedeno could've proven by now that defensively he was less prone to mistakes on routine plays, I would be willing to accept the higher risk/reward offense he could provide.

 

Combine the possibility that he might be worse offensively than Theriot in the short-term and more likely to struggle defensively, I would prob. go with Theriot.

 

agreed. cedeno makes too many fielding and baserunning mistakes, and in 2006 he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. the two guys have roughly the same amount of PAs in the majors; Theriot's big league EqA is .260 while Cedeno's is .214. that's right, .214. with theriot you know what you're going to get, and it's mediocrity, but it's not a complete black hole. cedeno could be a better player, but we've got more than a year of major league sample size to look at, and he's been far worse in that time. for a team that is in contention right now, i don't know if you have another year to see if he will sink or swim.

 

He was 23!!!

 

yes, he was. the guy who was the best player in the national league last year was 24. i understand that most guys don't hit their peak until their late 20s; however, the chances of a guy becoming successful in the major leagues after being one of the worst players in baseball for a full season are very slim.

 

Most organizations don't misjudge a player's value so severely that they bring him up that much before he is ready. Or on the flip side most organizations are dumb enough to write off a player after one awful season in the majors.

 

yes but cedeno had a solid year for WT at age 21, and an excellent 2/3 of a year for Iowa at age 22, followed by a good cup of coffee with the cubs at the end of that year. i'll put it this way, there wasn't a better alternative in the system (unless the cubs had signed furcal, which a lot of people didn't want because we had cedeno) and he'd shown the ability to hit at the level just below the big leagues. going back to the david wright example, he ended 2003 in high-A ball and ended 2004 with the big club, having taken about 400 PAs at AA and AAA combined. i'm aware that every situation is different, but cedeno was 23 years old and had shown success at both AAA and in his abbreviated stint with Chicago. it can easily be argued that patterson was rushed; i really don't think that argument holds true for cedeno.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

[Tyrant]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

 

And he has a floor that Theriot doesn't, which is just as important.

[TruffleShuffle]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

 

And he has a floor that Theriot doesn't, which is just as important.

 

plus we cannot talk about cedeno's "upside" without understanding the likelihood that he gets there. it's not like cedeno is jose reyes, 20 years old and coming into the big leagues for the first time. he's had as many ABs as theriot has had in the majors, and for the most part has been a complete failure. the chances of him reaching his upside are, at this point, pretty small.

[UK1679666180]

Until Cedeno improves defensively, he won't be a starting SS.

 

Sure, he more offensive upside than Theriot b/c he can hit 10 HRs and 30 DBs but he still has to prove that and more importantly for me, he has to show the ability to field the position which is something he hasn't done yet either.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Regardless if we have Cedeno's floor or Theriots ceiling (production wise), the position is going to suck and it must be upgraded. The only chance for this to improve internally is if Cedeno can hit near his #'s @ Iowa, not likely, but still a chance.

[TruffleShuffle]

Regardless if we have Cedeno's floor or Theriots ceiling (production wise), the position is going to suck and it must be upgraded. The only chance for this to improve internally is if Cedeno can hit near his #'s @ Iowa, not likely, but still a chance.

 

right but if you're going to take "suck" then you want the options that "sucks" less. over the course of a season, the difference between 2006 cedeno and 2007 theriot will be about 1.5 or 2 wins. as last year demonstrated, that can be a pretty big deal.

[Rob]

i'm fairly certain that cedeno's projected EqA in 2006 was not .208.

 

PECOTA isn't a crystal ball. It functions more as an indicator of the actual talent level of the players involved. And in this case, the lessons its giving us are fairly important. Not only was Cedeno's 2006 a fluke year (in the bad way). But Theriot's 2007 performance was a fluke (in the good way).

 

In essence, what PECOTA is telling us is that we haven't seen the real Ronny Cedeno... and that Theriot, horrible though he is, is actually playing over his head. Cedeno is the better player right now.

[Rob]

Completely forget all the talk about Cedeno's ceiling/floor vs. Theriot's ceiling/floor. Right now, at this very moment, Cedeno is a better bet to produce this year than Theriot is.

 

Why would you ignore it?

 

Oh, I was saying to ignore it because the ceiling/floor argument actually helps Cedeno's case.

 

If Ronny is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's a well above average SS.

 

If Theriot is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's just bad.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm fairly certain that cedeno's projected EqA in 2006 was not .208.

 

PECOTA isn't a crystal ball. It functions more as an indicator of the actual talent level of the players involved. And in this case, the lessons its giving us are fairly important. Not only was Cedeno's 2006 a fluke year (in the bad way). But Theriot's 2007 performance was a fluke (in the good way).

 

In essence, what PECOTA is telling us is that we haven't seen the real Ronny Cedeno... and that Theriot, horrible though he is, is actually playing over his head. Cedeno is the better player right now.

 

you are assuming that PECOTA is right. PECOTA was wrong on Ronny Cedeno in 2006 and i think it would be wrong on Ronny Cedeno in 2008. also, it is silly to say that Theriot's 2007 was a "fluke" when his BABIP was below the league average. his projected EqA is just a few points lower in 2008 than it was in 2007; it doesn't say anything about his 2007 except that you can expect to see that sort of season again.

[TruffleShuffle]

Completely forget all the talk about Cedeno's ceiling/floor vs. Theriot's ceiling/floor. Right now, at this very moment, Cedeno is a better bet to produce this year than Theriot is.

 

Why would you ignore it?

 

Oh, I was saying to ignore it because the ceiling/floor argument actually helps Cedeno's case.

 

If Ronny is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's a well above average SS.

 

If Theriot is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's just bad.

 

ugh. for the last time, there are different levels of horrible. cedeno's 2006 was 1.5 or 2 wins less horrible than theriot's 2007. theriot doesn't have much of a "floor" or a "ceiling," he is what he is.

[CubColtPacer]

Isn't the drop in EqA for Theriot entirely because of PECOTA projecting his stolen bases will drop? I think they have his OBP and SLG numbers almost exactly the same as last year.

 

I found his OBP and SLG:

 

Theriot had a .266/.326/.346 line last year.

PECOTA is projecting .270/.330/.347 this year.

 

Basically the same line before you factor in steals, and I think that's very hard to project.

 

Then, it comes to if you believe Cedeno's translations. I do not, but only because I believe a player like Cedeno, who has an obvious hole in his approach that throwing it to very specific spots can get him out, is one of the hardest players to translate that there is. Cedeno murders bad pitching and always has. Most AAA pitchers cannot consistently get it to a spot where Cedeno wants to swing at it but can't hit it. My fear is that many MLB pitchers can.

[Tracer Bullet]

If Cedeno could've proven by now that defensively he was less prone to mistakes on routine plays, I would be willing to accept the higher risk/reward offense he could provide.

 

Combine the possibility that he might be worse offensively than Theriot in the short-term and more likely to struggle defensively, I would prob. go with Theriot.

 

agreed. cedeno makes too many fielding and baserunning mistakes, and in 2006 he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. the two guys have roughly the same amount of PAs in the majors; Theriot's big league EqA is .260 while Cedeno's is .214. that's right, .214. with theriot you know what you're going to get, and it's mediocrity, but it's not a complete black hole. cedeno could be a better player, but we've got more than a year of major league sample size to look at, and he's been far worse in that time. for a team that is in contention right now, i don't know if you have another year to see if he will sink or swim.

 

He was 23!!!

 

yes, he was. the guy who was the best player in the national league last year was 24. i understand that most guys don't hit their peak until their late 20s; however, the chances of a guy becoming successful in the major leagues after being one of the worst players in baseball for a full season are very slim.

 

Most organizations don't misjudge a player's value so severely that they bring him up that much before he is ready. Or on the flip side most organizations are dumb enough to write off a player after one awful season in the majors.

 

yes but cedeno had a solid year for WT at age 21, and an excellent 2/3 of a year for Iowa at age 22, followed by a good cup of coffee with the cubs at the end of that year. i'll put it this way, there wasn't a better alternative in the system (unless the cubs had signed furcal, which a lot of people didn't want because we had cedeno) and he'd shown the ability to hit at the level just below the big leagues. going back to the david wright example, he ended 2003 in high-A ball and ended 2004 with the big club, having taken about 400 PAs at AA and AAA combined. i'm aware that every situation is different, but cedeno was 23 years old and had shown success at both AAA and in his abbreviated stint with Chicago. it can easily be argued that patterson was rushed; i really don't think that argument holds true for cedeno.

 

You've established that Cedeno is not as good as David Wright. Well done.

 

CPatt wasn't ready, that was pretty clear. But it's pretty easy to make the argument that Cedeno wasn't ready either. He had just 65 games at AAA in '05 - albeit with great numbers - and was only 23. I think spending all/most of '06 in AAA would have been best for his development.

 

The issue is writing him off based on his 1 year in the big leagues, when that 1 year came when he was 23, when the alternative is Ryan Theriot.

[Tracer Bullet]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

 

And he has a floor that Theriot doesn't, which is just as important.

 

No - that's complete junk. Cedeno's floor is irrelevant. If he's terrible for 2 months, you plug in Theriot. Is there some risk to starting the season with Cedeno at SS, sure. But the upside is worth it. And the risk is minimized by the fact that Theriot is sitting there waiting to start if need be.

[Wheelimus]

To me it's like we're debating which sandwich to eat, and both have onions on them. And I freaking hate onions. Hate hate hate hate.

 

I just don't really believe in either of them. I do not trust Ronny Cedeno's numbers at Iowa. Everyone knows the PCL is a hitters league. He's not going to hit .350 in the bigs as much as I'd love it.

 

Theriot couldn't even put up big numbers in the PCL so why should I expect anything from him.

 

Ideally Theriot is our backup MIF by midseason and Cedeno has been dealt for his replacement....

[Tyrant]

It really doesn't matter if Theriot can get more walks....his slugging ability is terrible and limits overall value as a player. Cedeno's lack of plate dicipline will also likely limit him as a ballplayer, but he still has an upside that Theriot doesn't.

 

And he has a floor that Theriot doesn't, which is just as important.

 

No - that's complete junk.

 

The arrogance on this board is incredible. Calling people's opinions junk, dismissing arguments with eyerolls and flip, one-sentence replies.

 

I've been around baseball my whole life. I played baseball for four years at a Pac-10 school, and now that I've graduated, I work as a scout for that same school, going around the country and watching baseball for my job. I love what I do. We use a combination of statistical analysis and personal evaluation -- and I'm learning new things every day. I'd like to think I know a bit about baseball and, hopefully, I can bring something positive to the table when I post.

 

But apparently, since I don't have 12,000 posts, it seems that my opinions are just dismissed as "junk." I can hardly get multiple-sentence replies to my posts.

 

Despite a few knowledgeable guys, posting here sometimes feels like pissing in the wind.

 

Sorry for the rant.