Here's the 2 deals Hendry needs to make

[CUBZ99]

If Figgins had the career numbers that would indicate he could consistently come close to what he did last year, I think there would be a valid case.

 

He's more likely to fall back to his previous years than what he did last year.

 

Given what it might take to get Figgins or sign Lofton, I'd rather see Kenny and would love to see how him Lou get along.

 

I just checked Figgins career OPS and was shocked to see that it was very similar to Roberts. .754 .760 Given the near identical production, I would think the Cubs would have been better off filling the CF hole with a .760ish OPS, and sticking with DeRosa.

 

Beside the ARAM for Figgins garbage, has there been any whispers about what the Angels are realistically asking for Figgins?

[fromthestretch]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

[nilodnayr]

Alright this is getting no where. My opinion is very very different than a lot of yours and I think its crazy what some of you are saying, but we're just gonna continue to argue and argue. I'm done, so you guys can just talk to eachother and jerk off over khalil greene's amazing .291 OBP. So lets just end this discussion.

 

Oh man, you're leaving? We didn't even get to use VORP and EqA yet

 

I used VORP in this thread (not pertaining to Greene/Theriot though).

[DenverCubs]

Alright this is getting no where. My opinion is very very different than a lot of yours and I think its crazy what some of you are saying, but we're just gonna continue to argue and argue. I'm done, so you guys can just talk to eachother and jerk off over khalil greene's amazing .291 OBP. So lets just end this discussion.

 

Oh man, you're leaving? We didn't even get to use VORP and EqA yet

 

I used VORP in this thread (not pertaining to Greene/Theriot though).

Does VORP take park factors into account?

[anabiono]

i want to learn about all these wacky stats you guys are throwing out constantly...

 

i am your novice...educate me...you know you want to because there is nothing else to do while we are waiting for our enormous GM to pull the strings!

[DeuceBaseman]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

[CubinNY]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

Either you are not reading or are intentionally obtuse. The post to which you are referring is talking about the differences in SLG.

 

Theriot>/ = Greene OBP

Green>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Theriot SLG

 

Advantage Greene

[DeuceBaseman]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

Either you are not reading or are intentionally obtuse. The post to which you are referring is talking about the differences in SLG.

 

Theriot>/ = Greene OBP

Green>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Theriot SLG

 

Advantage Greene

 

I read it very well thank you. I bolded the portions for you if you want to go back and read it. He says Greene's OBP would be between .320-.340 if he wasnt in Petco, why would it go up so much not being in Petco? And then he says it again with reference to the park and OBP. So I was reading it.

[fromthestretch]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

 

Petco Park has suppressed offense significantly since the first pitch was thrown there. It is to pitching what Coors Field is to hitting.

 

Figgins year was potentially a fluke since he put up a .391 BABIP. During his 2004-2005 seasons, his BABIP was below .350 (which it still a rather high mark itself).

 

Greene's 27 homers could be a fluke, but considering that he's slugged over .500 on the road three of the last four years, I think it's safe to say he could hit for pretty good power if he didn't have to play half his games in San Diego.

 

As for walks and OBP, you are correct that an increase in his OBP away from Petco would largely be due to an increase in batting average. However, his career .303 BABIP on the road is actually reasonable. He could sustain that. His BABIP at home is a paltry .263, so getting him out of that ballpark should have a rather significant impact on his stats.

[nilodnayr]

1.8*OBP+ SLG is the multiplier that I've most commonly seen.

So it's kind of assuming that 20% of the times you reach base are anything more than a single or walk?

 

No, all it is is a weight to say that OBP is actually more important than SLG to a player's value. 1.8 times.

 

So player A who puts up a 345/440 (OPS/SLG) is actually the equivalent of a player that puts up a 300/520. So while OPS would say the 2nd guy is better (785/820 OPS), they are actually equal if you weight OBP by 1.8. (ie .345*1.8+.440=.300*1.8+.520)

[WilcoFan]

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly?

 

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP.

 

 

So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27.

 

Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years.

[nilodnayr]

Alright this is getting no where. My opinion is very very different than a lot of yours and I think its crazy what some of you are saying, but we're just gonna continue to argue and argue. I'm done, so you guys can just talk to eachother and jerk off over khalil greene's amazing .291 OBP. So lets just end this discussion.

 

Oh man, you're leaving? We didn't even get to use VORP and EqA yet

 

I used VORP in this thread (not pertaining to Greene/Theriot though).

Does VORP take park factors into account?

 

Yup.

[haltz]

He says Greene's OBP would be between .320-.340 if he wasnt in Petco, why would it go up so much not being in Petco?

Because a major part of OBP is batting average. Khalil hits .230 at home and .280 on the road for park effect reasons. It's spacious, he's a fly ball hitter, etc. The OBP will fluctuate accordingly. He'll make less outs outside of Petco.

[CubinNY]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

Either you are not reading or are intentionally obtuse. The post to which you are referring is talking about the differences in SLG.

 

Theriot>/ = Greene OBP

Green>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Theriot SLG

 

Advantage Greene

 

I read it very well thank you. I bolded the portions for you if you want to go back and read it. He says Greene's OBP would be between .320-.340 if he wasnt in Petco, why would it go up so much not being in Petco? And then he says it again with reference to the park and OBP. So I was reading it.

B/c HRs count in OBP. Greene's BABIP might suffer some (which I kind of doubt) but HRs aren't balls in play.

[David]

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

 

 

Petco is like Coors Field for pitchers. It's the most extreme pitchers park in baseball.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor - Take a look at the bottom of that list...

 

Also..

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/attend.shtml - Below 100 = Good for pitchers...

 

Anyway, that stuff aside, take a look at Greene's splits.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5797

 

2007

 

Home - .216/.258/.412 (AVG/OBP/SLG)

 

Away - .288/.322/.519

 

Pretty substantial, right? Let's see if it was just a fluke in 2007 or if it has held true before...

 

 

Three-Year Splits (2005-2007)

 

Home - .227/.273/.389

 

Away - .273/.328/.500

 

Again, pretty substantial.

 

As for how the big pitcher's park hurts his OBP, it's pretty simple. He's an extreme fly ball hitter. He gets more hits and home runs on the road and therefore has a higher batting average on the road. You'll notice his isolated discipline (OBP-AVG) is pretty constant from home to road. He's drawing walks at more or less the same rate, he's just hitting better. Thus, the higher batting average on the road inevitably leads to a higher OBP.

 

Hope that helps. I don't know as much as a lot of others on here, but I tried...

[nilodnayr]

i want to learn about all these wacky stats you guys are throwing out constantly...

 

i am your novice...educate me...you know you want to because there is nothing else to do while we are waiting for our enormous GM to pull the strings!

 

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend.

 

If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com

[haltz]

i want to learn about all these wacky stats you guys are throwing out constantly...

 

i am your novice...educate me...you know you want to because there is nothing else to do while we are waiting for our enormous GM to pull the strings!

 

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend.

 

If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com

Also check out the reference page at SOSH.

http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Statistical_Reference_Page

 

Read other team's blogs also. USS Mariner, Viva El Birdos etc. Find the blogs of the guys that write for THT and BP. There's also Baseball Think Factory, but outside of the HOM and Transaction Oracle, it's largely steroid garbage and political discussions.

 

And just ask when you have a question about something. Here or at any of those sites. Willful ignorance and axe-grinding turns off stats types, but open-mindedness and honest questions are almost always welcome anywhere.

[nilodnayr]

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly?

 

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP.

 

 

So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27.

 

Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years.

 

Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless).

[17 Seconds]

I'm trying to figure out how anyone can read this board and think that no one values OBP here. I think there's a disconnect, so Deuce, if you're still around...

 

OBP is a great stat. Batting average, not so much. Players with an OBP that is largely dependent on their batting average have a tougher time sustaining a decent OBP since batting average can fluctuate quite a bit. However, players who walk a lot can still maintain a respectable OBP during years where their batting average suffers.

 

I wouldn't say that a lot of people here value slugging over OBP, but I can see how you would infer that from the Greene vs. Theriot discussion. If you were to take Greene out of Petco Park, he'd likely post an OBP in the .320-.340 range, which is where Theriot is likely to end up. However, Theriot is never going to hit for power. I highly doubt you'll see him ever put up a SLG% over .400 in any season. Greene would be capable of over .500 away from Petco...not that he'd do that every season, but he'd probably be over .470 during his peak years. That's a substantial upgrade, especially when you consider that they would have similar OBPs. Any advantage Theriot would have in OBP in a given year (again, provided that Greene is not playing half his games in San Diego) would be minimal at best, while the advantage Greene would have in slugging would be huge.

 

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly? One can argue that it helps it, and one can argue it hurts it. Obviously his HR's will be effected. So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27. Since the park is big I think there would be more open grass for base hits to land, therefore his average should go up. And OBP wouldnt be any different than batting average in a different park because walks have nothing to do with the size of the park.

Either you are not reading or are intentionally obtuse. The post to which you are referring is talking about the differences in SLG.

 

Theriot>/ = Greene OBP

Green>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Theriot SLG

 

Advantage Greene

 

He says Greene's OBP would be between .320-.340 if he wasnt in Petco, why would it go up so much not being in Petco?

 

How is that hard for you to understand? Seriously, it's not difficult.

 

Oh by the way, in 1028 major league at-bats away from Petco, his OBP is .335.

[DenverCubs]

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly?

 

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP.

 

 

So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27.

 

Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years.

 

Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless).

I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in left-center.

Edited January 28, 2008 by DenverCubs

[Backtobanks]

Getting back to my original post, the reason I posted the Pie and Gallagher for Roberts idea was because it was some of the recent speculation about the trade with the Orioles. Hoops posted (and I agreed) quite awhile ago that Hendry has a public position on Pie (untouchable), but seems to be listening to offers in private. I have posted often that trading Pie wouldn't surprise me at all because I think Lou feels more comfortable with a veteran. I have also posted many trade proposals in which the Cubs end up with Greene. Whether we like it or not, I think Lou and Hendry feel much more comfortable with Theriot starting than Pie starting. Obviously, we would all love to pick up that one or two players to win the WS without giving up players like Gallagher, Pie, etc., but it's very unlikely. I think Hendry realizes that this could be the year that the Cubs have a real shot and it's hard not to pull the trigger on making the deal that could make the difference.

[UK1679666180]

While Greene has a larger uppercut swing than most, including Theriot, Theriot will likely never be a .300 hitter given his slow bat and desire to put the bal into play rather than drive the ball.

 

Despite the season Greene last year, the difference of his more aggressive apporach as far as swing and misses isn't as costly as the improved defense he brings compared to Theriot as well as the added pop.

[UK1679666180]

If Figgins had the career numbers that would indicate he could consistently come close to what he did last year, I think there would be a valid case.

 

He's more likely to fall back to his previous years than what he did last year.

 

Given what it might take to get Figgins or sign Lofton, I'd rather see Kenny and would love to see how him Lou get along.

 

I just checked Figgins career OPS and was shocked to see that it was very similar to Roberts. .754 .760 Given the near identical production, I would think the Cubs would have been better off filling the CF hole with a .760ish OPS, and sticking with DeRosa.

 

Beside the ARAM for Figgins garbage, has there been any whispers about what the Angels are realistically asking for Figgins?

 

I have no idea, I don't even know if he's avail.

[nilodnayr]

What's so spectacular about Petco Park exactly? I understand it is a big major league park. So how does that effect Greene's OBP exactly?

 

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP.

 

 

So he'll probably hit more somewhere else, but a lot of you guys believe Figgins had a fluke year, so why couldn't Greene have had a fluke year in HR's? He only had 15 HR's each of the 3 years before last years 27.

 

Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years.

 

Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless).

I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in right-center.

 

Left, not right. But yeah, its a lot. Roughly hes been in the top 20 players in the game in FB% the last three years.

Edited January 28, 2008 by nilodnayr

[anabiono]

i want to learn about all these wacky stats you guys are throwing out constantly...

 

i am your novice...educate me...you know you want to because there is nothing else to do while we are waiting for our enormous GM to pull the strings!

 

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend.

 

If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com

 

thanks for the links and tips guys...should i just go buy that book after class tonight?