Fukudome's 2003-2007 seasons translated to MLB equivalents

[1908]

This is courtesy of Jim Albright at BaseballGuru.com.

 

YEAR     G    AB     H   2B   3B   HR   BB    AVG    OBP   SLG
2003   162   611   178   34   20   24   73   .291   .367  .529
2004   108   411   106   22   13   16   45   .258   .332  .494
2005   158   571   175   42   10   19   83   .306   .394  .515
2006   144   550   180   51    9   21   68   .327   .401  .565
2007    91   303    83   24    0    9   62   .274   .398  .441

Averages are .295/.379/.518 over the five years and .308/.398/.520 over the past three.

 

The methods he uses to arrive at these numbers are here.

 

Not Gospel, but interesting.

[Ryno12]

If Fukudome puts up anywhere near a 900 OPS this year, I will be estatic.

[UMFan83]

I'm trying to figure out a good MLB comparison to those numbers. Bobby Abreu is the one that comes to my mind.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm trying to figure out a good MLB comparison to those numbers. Bobby Abreu is the one that comes to my mind.

 

abreu walks a lot more than fukudome, though.

 

i think ray lankford and luis gonzalez in his 30-37 years (minus the one huge year) are good parallels. he'll probably put up billy williams-type numbers, which won't be as impressive as when billy did that, because this is a more offensive era.

[UMFan83]

I'm trying to figure out a good MLB comparison to those numbers. Bobby Abreu is the one that comes to my mind.

 

abreu walks a lot more than fukudome, though.

 

i think ray lankford and luis gonzalez in his 30-37 years (minus the one huge year) are good parallels. he'll probably put up billy williams-type numbers, which won't be as impressive as when billy did that, because this is a more offensive era.

 

LuGonz is a pretty good comparison. I think Ray Lankford's OBP is too low but he does seem to have similar BB totals.

[shnsajax]

If Fukudome puts up anywhere near a 900 OPS this year, I will be estatic.

 

And out of the #2 spot as well would be huge. I would still like to see Derosa leadoff with Soriano 5th and Soto 6th.

[apete6]

If he repeats his 2006 and no one significant gets hurt, there is about a 0% chance we don't make the playoffs.

 

.966 OPS :shock: . I'll take it.

[Soul]

If he puts up those averages, Wrigley is going to take the song "I'm turning Japanese" to a whole new level.

[Ender]

Those MLE's are more optimistic than BaseballHQ/Ron Shandlers.

 

He has OPS of .772, .719, .772, .834, .839 over the past 5 seasons. I don't know what the differences in the two versions are but he does mention that the league itself is pretty comperable to AAA but with smaller parks and smaller balls.

[1908]

[baseballHQ/Ron Shandlers] does mention that the league itself is pretty comperable to AAA but with smaller parks and smaller balls.

That's selling the level of play across the Pacific short.

 

In Baseball Prospectus 2001, I wrote that the difficulty level of Japan was "about even with the Triple-A leagues." Looking at it more comprehensively--I was basing my assessment on a scattering of players, rather than off a full list of Japanese player data--that was a silly thing to say, as the Japanese leagues have clearly and consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues. Every case from the 1990s shows that players do worse as a CPA-weighted-average group in Japan than they do in Triple-A, and by a considerable margin. The Triple-A/majors multiplier is .860; if the transitive property holds, then Japanese EqA is worth about .948 of a major-league EqA, which conveniently enough is almost identical to what we got from major leaguers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330

 

Clay also addresses the size of Japanese ballparks in that article.

[frostwyrm]

This is courtesy of Jim Albright at BaseballGuru.com.

 

YEAR     G    AB     H   2B   3B   HR   BB    AVG    OBP   SLG
2003   162   611   178   34   20   24   73   .291   .367  .529
2004   108   411   106   22   13   16   45   .258   .332  .494
2005   158   571   175   42   10   19   83   .306   .394  .515
2006   144   550   180   51    9   21   68   .327   .401  .565
2007    91   303    83   24    0    9   62   .274   .398  .441

Averages are .295/.379/.518 over the five years and .308/.398/.520 over the past three.

 

The methods he uses to arrive at these numbers are here.

 

Not Gospel, but interesting.

 

Obviously American GMs aren't using Albright's methods, otherwise there's no way Fuku could've been had for anything like 4/48. Prolly would've been 6/80, maybe more.

[CuseCubFan69]

If he puts up those averages, Wrigley is going to take the song "I'm turning Japanese" to a whole new level.

 

So you would look at the inside as well?

 

Was he playing injured in 2007 or did the injury put him out right away?

[UMFan83]

[baseballHQ/Ron Shandlers] does mention that the league itself is pretty comperable to AAA but with smaller parks and smaller balls.

That's selling the level of play across the Pacific short.

 

In Baseball Prospectus 2001, I wrote that the difficulty level of Japan was "about even with the Triple-A leagues." Looking at it more comprehensively--I was basing my assessment on a scattering of players, rather than off a full list of Japanese player data--that was a silly thing to say, as the Japanese leagues have clearly and consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues. Every case from the 1990s shows that players do worse as a CPA-weighted-average group in Japan than they do in Triple-A, and by a considerable margin. The Triple-A/majors multiplier is .860; if the transitive property holds, then Japanese EqA is worth about .948 of a major-league EqA, which conveniently enough is almost identical to what we got from major leaguers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330

 

Clay also addresses the size of Japanese ballparks in that article.

 

Also, wasn't Fukudome's home park one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the entire country?

[CuseCubFan69]

[baseballHQ/Ron Shandlers] does mention that the league itself is pretty comperable to AAA but with smaller parks and smaller balls.

That's selling the level of play across the Pacific short.

 

In Baseball Prospectus 2001, I wrote that the difficulty level of Japan was "about even with the Triple-A leagues." Looking at it more comprehensively--I was basing my assessment on a scattering of players, rather than off a full list of Japanese player data--that was a silly thing to say, as the Japanese leagues have clearly and consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues. Every case from the 1990s shows that players do worse as a CPA-weighted-average group in Japan than they do in Triple-A, and by a considerable margin. The Triple-A/majors multiplier is .860; if the transitive property holds, then Japanese EqA is worth about .948 of a major-league EqA, which conveniently enough is almost identical to what we got from major leaguers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330

 

Clay also addresses the size of Japanese ballparks in that article.

 

Also, wasn't Fukudome's home park one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the entire country?

 

That might explain all the triples.

[nilodnayr]

[baseballHQ/Ron Shandlers] does mention that the league itself is pretty comperable to AAA but with smaller parks and smaller balls.

That's selling the level of play across the Pacific short.

 

In Baseball Prospectus 2001, I wrote that the difficulty level of Japan was "about even with the Triple-A leagues." Looking at it more comprehensively--I was basing my assessment on a scattering of players, rather than off a full list of Japanese player data--that was a silly thing to say, as the Japanese leagues have clearly and consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues. Every case from the 1990s shows that players do worse as a CPA-weighted-average group in Japan than they do in Triple-A, and by a considerable margin. The Triple-A/majors multiplier is .860; if the transitive property holds, then Japanese EqA is worth about .948 of a major-league EqA, which conveniently enough is almost identical to what we got from major leaguers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330

 

Clay also addresses the size of Japanese ballparks in that article.

 

Also, wasn't Fukudome's home park one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the entire country?

 

Yes, IIRC it isn't "one of" it is "the". Pretty close to an MLB park.

[1908]

Was he playing injured in 2007 or did the injury put him out right away?

He was dealing with injuries in both 2004 (leg) and 2007 (elbow).

[CuseCubFan69]

Was he playing injured in 2007 or did the injury put him out right away?

He was dealing with injuries in both 2004 (leg) and 2007 (elbow).

 

Thanks. I hope the elbow has healed completely.

[1908]

Me too. Everything I've read suggests he'll be 100% by the time the season starts.

[1908]

He was dealing with injuries in both 2004 (leg) and 2007 (elbow).

Correction, a fractured left index finger suffered on a hit-by-pitch is what knocked him out in 2004.

[OleMissCub]

I'm trying to figure out a good MLB comparison to those numbers. Bobby Abreu is the one that comes to my mind.

 

abreu walks a lot more than fukudome, though.

 

i think ray lankford and luis gonzalez in his 30-37 years (minus the one huge year) are good parallels. he'll probably put up billy williams-type numbers, which won't be as impressive as when billy did that, because this is a more offensive era.

 

Looks alot like Hideki Matsui's last few years to me:

 

.295/.371/.485

[DivineBovine]

Interesting. Reading that article, the formula pretty much has been accurate about the careers of most major leaguers recently, Kaz Matsui being the exception. It nailed guys like Hideki, Ichiro, Shinjo and Taguchi. Hopefully, this holds true for Fukodome.

[TheDude]

Yes please.

[DivineBovine]

This is courtesy of Jim Albright at BaseballGuru.com.

 

YEAR     G    AB     H   2B   3B   HR   BB    AVG    OBP   SLG
2003   162   611   178   34   20   24   73   .291   .367  .529
2004   108   411   106   22   13   16   45   .258   .332  .494
2005   158   571   175   42   10   19   83   .306   .394  .515
2006   144   550   180   51    9   21   68   .327   .401  .565
2007    91   303    83   24    0    9   62   .274   .398  .441

Averages are .295/.379/.518 over the five years and .308/.398/.520 over the past three.

 

The methods he uses to arrive at these numbers are here.

 

Not Gospel, but interesting.

 

Obviously American GMs aren't using Albright's methods, otherwise there's no way Fuku could've been had for anything like 4/48. Prolly would've been 6/80, maybe more.

 

 

You get a discount because of the added risk you take of getting a bust.