Breakout players in 2008

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Corey Patterson had better minor league numbers than Felix Pie.

 

No. Not even close actually.

 

Eric Patterson has better numbers than both of them.

 

No. Corey maybe if you ignore age, but certainly not Pie(even moreso when you consider age).

[Abe Frohman]

Corey Patterson http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11036

 

His first season, age 19, A ball in the MWL.

112 games, 152/475 with 94 runs, 35 doubles, 17 3B, 20 HR, 79 RBI, .320/.354 and 33 SB.

 

Felix Pie http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11427

 

His first FULL season, age 18, A ball in the MWL.

124 games, 144/505 with 72 runs, 22 2B, 9 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, .285/.339 and 19 SB (13 CS).

 

Eric Patterson http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11039

 

His first FULL season, age 22, was split between A ball in the MWL and AA ball in the SOU.

119 games, 150/462 with 95 runs, 28 2B, 11 3B, 13 HR, 73 RBI, .325/.400 and 43 SB.

 

Now - that is a fair comparison with a big difference in ages (mainly E. Pattersons), and only thier first years. Corey Patterson didn't have the luxury of many years of seasoning in the minors like Pie and his brother Eric. That may be the main difference - but of the three I think is pretty obvious that E.P. is the better offensive player and ready for MLB. Yes he is older, but still he is young.

 

It is a debatable comparison, but not as far fetched as a couple of you are making it seem. Coupled with the fact that E.P. can play multiple positions (and discounting personal issues, like showing up on time), I think that Eric has more attractive statistics. They all have great upside, and only two have had adequate time to develope.

[Mephistopheles]

Mephs 08 Breakout Top Ten

 

 

10. Jason Hirsh, RHP - Colorado Rockies

9. Matt Garza, RHP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

8. Joey Votto, 1B - Cincinnati Reds

7. Jeremy Hermida, OF - Florida Marlins

6. Scott Olsen, LHP - Florida Marlins

5. Bobby Crosby, SS - Oakland Athletics

4. Ervin Santana, RHP - Los Angeles Angels*

3. Stephen Drew, SS - Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Chad Billingsley, RHP - Los Angeles DodgersJ

1. Rocco Baldelli, OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

 

 

*He's on these lists every season. Ditto for Crosby. And Rocco.

[SouthSideRyan]

Ok, I'm really confused why we're only including their 1st years in the minors.

[Mephistopheles]

because the rest of their minor league careers hurts his argument duh.

[seanimal]

Do you really think Rocco's going to break out?

[Abe Frohman]

because the rest of their minor league careers hurts his argument duh.

 

Not really.

[rawaction]

My breakout players (in no order):

 

Delmon Young

Ian Kinsler

Stephen Drew

Alex Gordon

Wily Mo Pena

Pat Neshek

JR Towles

Billy Butler

Ryan Garko

Howie Kendrick

 

My players who will RE-breakout after subpar seasons (in no order):

 

Dontrelle Willis

Ryan Zimmerman

Rafael Furcal

Felipe Lopez

Hank Blalock (on here for health)

Felix Hernandez

Jeremy Bonderman

Julio Lugo

Jermaine Dye

Francisco Liriano (again, injury)

[Derwood]

my breakout players:

 

Alex Rodriguez

Johan Santana

Ryan Braun

Chase Utley

Jake Peavy

Aramis Ramirez

 

Look out for these up and comers!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Corey Patterson http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11036

 

His first season, age 19, A ball in the MWL.

112 games, 152/475 with 94 runs, 35 doubles, 17 3B, 20 HR, 79 RBI, .320/.354 and 33 SB.

 

Felix Pie http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11427

 

His first FULL season, age 18, A ball in the MWL.

124 games, 144/505 with 72 runs, 22 2B, 9 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, .285/.339 and 19 SB (13 CS).

 

Eric Patterson http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11039

 

His first FULL season, age 22, was split between A ball in the MWL and AA ball in the SOU.

119 games, 150/462 with 95 runs, 28 2B, 11 3B, 13 HR, 73 RBI, .325/.400 and 43 SB.

 

Now - that is a fair comparison with a big difference in ages (mainly E. Pattersons), and only thier first years. Corey Patterson didn't have the luxury of many years of seasoning in the minors like Pie and his brother Eric. That may be the main difference - but of the three I think is pretty obvious that E.P. is the better offensive player and ready for MLB. Yes he is older, but still he is young.

 

It is a debatable comparison, but not as far fetched as a couple of you are making it seem. Coupled with the fact that E.P. can play multiple positions (and discounting personal issues, like showing up on time), I think that Eric has more attractive statistics. They all have great upside, and only two have had adequate time to develope.

 

Sorry, but Pie's minor league production blows Corey's out of the water, and everyone knows how much I hate Corey Patterson.

 

Age 19

 

Patterson: .320/.354/.592/.946 at A-

Pie: .299 .358 .442 .800 at A+

 

Patterson's best year, he's better than Pie in all aspects but patience, albeit at a lower level at the same age.

 

Age 20

 

Patterson: .261/.329/.491/.820 at AA

Pie: .304/.349/.554/.903 at AA

 

Same level, same age, and Pie is significantly better than Corey.

 

Age 21

 

Patterson: .253/.308/.387/.695 at AAA

Pie: .283/.341/.451/.792 at AAA

 

Again, same level, same age, and Pie's got an OPS around 100 points more than Patterson. And then he follows it up with a .362/.410/.563/.973 line in AAA at age 22.

 

Pie's minor league numbers run circles around Corey's, there's no way around it.

[Abe Frohman]

Total numbers? Or just BA, OB, OPS? You are discounting a lot.

 

Corey had 200 more AB's at the age of 20 than Pie. Pie's numbers are based on 59 games. The reason I used their first full seasons is there was a level of comparison on games played and PA.

 

Anyway, my point is that Corey had pretty impressive minor league numbers - and didn't really pan out as the star everyone hoped/thought he would become. He didn't necessarily have the plate discipline that usually indicates a hitter who can have a good level of success in MLB. Pie, has pretty similar characteristics (low walks, high strikeouts) to Corey. Unlike Corey, Pie wasn't rushed, so who knows what might happen.

 

Eric Patterson has a respectable BB/K ratio, indicating a level of plate discipline. If you ask me who PROJECTS as a better big league hitter of the three - I'd say Eric Patterson.

 

All three are great prospects. Unfortunately, there comes a time when the "prospect" tag wears off - and the type of hitter he is will be evident.

Edited January 17, 2008 by Abe Frohman

[nilodnayr]

Total numbers? Or just BA, OB, OPS? You are discounting a lot.

 

 

Yeah dude, got to take a look at their RBI numbers.

[nilodnayr]

My breakout players (in no order):

 

Delmon Young

Ian Kinsler

Stephen Drew

Alex Gordon

Wily Mo Pena

Pat Neshek

JR Towles

Billy Butler

Ryan Garko

Howie Kendrick

 

My players who will RE-breakout after subpar seasons (in no order):

 

Dontrelle Willis

Ryan Zimmerman

Rafael Furcal

Felipe Lopez

Hank Blalock (on here for health)

Felix Hernandez

Jeremy Bonderman

Julio Lugo

Jermaine Dye

Francisco Liriano (again, injury)

 

Everyone keeps on talking about Zimmerman and the new park and so on, but shouldn't we be concerned about the wrist injury zapping some power?

[cbbryan]

Do you really think Rocco's going to break out?

 

More like, He's going to break something.................... like a foot or some limb of his body.

[TruffleShuffle]

bobby crosby???

[sneakypower]

Lastings Milledge

Carlos Quentin

Ubaldo Jimenez

Zack Greinke

Erick Aybar

Edwar Ramirez

Travis Buck

Paul Maholm

Kevin Kouzmanoff

Adam Wainwright

Edwin Jackson

[Vanilla Ice]

NEFTI PEREZ

 

Jeez guys, how did 6 people quote Nefti's name? That's not even funny.

[Post Count Padder]

I really think 2008 is the season that Jamie Moyer breaks out.

[Abe Frohman]

I really think 2008 is the season that Jamie Moyer breaks out.

 

Lord knows he's due.

[NCCubFan]

Sorry, but Pie's minor league production blows Corey's out of the water, and everyone knows how much I hate Corey Patterson.

Sunnydoo, is that you? :lol:

[Butterscup1679666578]

Sammy Sosa.

[twothousandfive]

I think it is a stretch to call Rich Hill's 2007 season a "break-out" year.

 

11-8 ERA of 3.92 just doesn't qualify. A WHIP of 1.2, after 2006s 1.25 is nice, as is the 8.45 Ks/9. And a lot of that is from the first 22 innings of the year, when he let up only 1 run. From there, he had one or two very good starts each month, mixed in with 2-3 poor ones in those same months. His ERA was 3.96 or higher every month after April. He looked good and continued to improve, but it was hardly a breakout. Especially since he was 27.

 

Now, compare his second full season at age 27 to Erik Bedard's second real season, at age 26. Bedard in 2005 was 6-8 with an ERA of 4.00. WHIP of 1.4, K/9 of 7.94, but in only 141 innings. Bedard then improved in 2006, going 15-11, 3.76 in 196 innings. The he took the big leap last year, mostly due to 11 ks/p, up from 8 ks/9 in his three previous seasons.

 

Hill dominated lefties, got his Ks/9 to 8.45 and limited his walks. Bedard is a great comparison for many reasons, but I think mostly because of age. If he wants to make the same leap as Bedard, he's going to have to win easily in most games where he dominates. 7 ks in 4.2 innings, but 4 earned runs against Cincy on Sep 17 (just after shutting down Houston)? That can't happen. And just before Houston, Pittsburgh knocked him around. If that silliness stops, he can be a breakout pitcher, like Bedard. If not, the Cubs will wish they'd moved him FOR Bedard.

[Schwarber Fan]

NEFTI PEREZ

 

Jeez guys, how did 6 people quote Nefti's name? That's not even funny.

 

LOL, it originally said Geovany Soto, we all quoted it, and then someone edited it to say "Nefti"

[Guest]

I'm still trying to figure out how either of the Patterson's have better minor league numbers than Felix Pie does.