Speculation about future contracts

[javy knows my name]

Between all the speculation surrounding A-Rod's future contract and now with the Twins showing interest in shopping/not resigning Santana, there is one overwhelming question: If Zito can get 8/127, what could Santana command!?!

The answer: not all that much more. Just because Santana is light-years better than Zito does not mean that a GM is going to be forced to give him, say 9/200. When guys like Zito get that type of money, it does not necessarily help the Santanas/Zambranos/Oswalts of the world. If anything, it puts a sort of cap on future contracts, and I have to think that significantly more talent is not going to go too far over that cap. The superagents can quote those contracts all day (I see Boras mainly hammering in Soriano's contract on A-Rod's behalf), but I don't see GMs being forced to pay 10/350 or 9/200 (despite whatever Jon Heyman's dumb a$$ says).

 

Thoughts?

[inari]

My thoughts are pretty much that you're wrong. GMs can and will continue to pay outrageous contracts. Santana's camp will say "Zito got X, so I should get Y."

[javy knows my name]

Santana's camp will say "Zito got X, so I should get Y."

This was my point. They will say that, and Santana will get more, but not proportionally to Zito, i.e. what he deserves based on Zito's outrageous contract. He will get what the big boys are willing to pay and I don't think anyone can get him what he truly deserves - something like 8/160. Just like A-Rod will not get his 10/350.

 

Edit: Go Hawkeyes! I grew up in IC.

[CuseCubFan69]

My thoughts are pretty much that you're wrong. GMs can and will continue to pay outrageous contracts. Santana's camp will say "Zito got X, so I should get Y."

 

But Y can be less than X. Wouldn't it be X+?

:D

[Yanksfan1523]

Santana's agent will say because of Zito, Santana should get this. BUt it takes the GMs to agree.and most of the times they will. Someone will alwyas give out a bigger deal!! The agents aren't the Biggest problem, the GMs are a big part of the problem.

[cbbryan]

Here's the breakdown on Zito's deal:

 

 

 

Barry Zito p
7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option

signed as a free agent 12/06 (largest-ever pitcher contract at signing)
07:$10M, 08:$14.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)
option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13
if 2014 option vests, Zito may opt out & receive $3.5M buyout

full no-trade clause
award bonuses:
Cy Young award: $0.5M for winning once, $0.75M for 2nd time, $1M each for 3 or more ($0.2M for placing 2nd in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th, $50,000 for 5th)
MVP: $0.25M for winning, $0.15M for 2nd place in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th
WS MVP: $0.2M
Gold Glove, All Star selection or LCS MVP: $0.1M each

perks: suite on road trips

4 years/$9.3M (2002-05), plus $8.5M 2006 club option
$8.5M 2006 option became guaranteed 8/05 when Zito hit IP vesting mark

$0.4M signing bonus
02:$0.5M, 03:$0.9M, 04:$2.7M, 05:$4.8M, 06:$7M club option
escalators:

2004: $0.1M for 400 IP 2002-03, $0.2M for 420 IP 2002-03
2005: $0.7M for 540-630 IP 2002-04
2006: $0.2M for 570 IP 2002-05, $1.25M for Cy Young 02-05

$50,000 All Star bonus

signed extension 5/02, replacing 1 year/$0.295M deal for 2002
1 year/$0.24M (2001)
drafted 1999 (1-9), $1.59M signing bonus
agent: Scott Boras (re-hired 7/06, replacing Arn Tellum) (had fired Scott Boras late in 2001 season)
ML service: 6.072

 

Assuming Santana makes more, I would think it his contract would be somewhere around:

 

09:$18M, 10:$18M, 11:$20M, 12:$20M, 13:$22M, 14:$22M, 15:$25M, 16:$25M club option ($8M buyout)

 

Would total 8/160. I think that's probably reasonable for Santana.

[Yanksfan1523]

I can't see any team not willing to go 8/160 on Santana.

[javy knows my name]

Here's the breakdown on Zito's deal:

 

 

 

Barry Zito p
7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option

signed as a free agent 12/06 (largest-ever pitcher contract at signing)
07:$10M, 08:$14.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)
option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13
if 2014 option vests, Zito may opt out & receive $3.5M buyout

full no-trade clause
award bonuses:
Cy Young award: $0.5M for winning once, $0.75M for 2nd time, $1M each for 3 or more ($0.2M for placing 2nd in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th, $50,000 for 5th)
MVP: $0.25M for winning, $0.15M for 2nd place in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th
WS MVP: $0.2M
Gold Glove, All Star selection or LCS MVP: $0.1M each

perks: suite on road trips

4 years/$9.3M (2002-05), plus $8.5M 2006 club option
$8.5M 2006 option became guaranteed 8/05 when Zito hit IP vesting mark

$0.4M signing bonus
02:$0.5M, 03:$0.9M, 04:$2.7M, 05:$4.8M, 06:$7M club option
escalators:

2004: $0.1M for 400 IP 2002-03, $0.2M for 420 IP 2002-03
2005: $0.7M for 540-630 IP 2002-04
2006: $0.2M for 570 IP 2002-05, $1.25M for Cy Young 02-05

$50,000 All Star bonus

signed extension 5/02, replacing 1 year/$0.295M deal for 2002
1 year/$0.24M (2001)
drafted 1999 (1-9), $1.59M signing bonus
agent: Scott Boras (re-hired 7/06, replacing Arn Tellum) (had fired Scott Boras late in 2001 season)
ML service: 6.072

 

Assuming Santana makes more, I would think it his contract would be somewhere around:

 

09:$18M, 10:$18M, 11:$20M, 12:$20M, 13:$22M, 14:$22M, 15:$25M, 16:$25M club option ($8M buyout)

 

Would total 8/160. I think that's probably reasonable for Santana.

 

I agree. My point is that that's not a whole lot better than Zito's for a MUCH better pitcher.

 

Edit: I see that above I stated he wouldn't get that. Probably too conservative on my part.

[cbbryan]

Here's the breakdown on Zito's deal:

 

 

 

Barry Zito p
7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option

signed as a free agent 12/06 (largest-ever pitcher contract at signing)
07:$10M, 08:$14.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)
option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13
if 2014 option vests, Zito may opt out & receive $3.5M buyout

full no-trade clause
award bonuses:
Cy Young award: $0.5M for winning once, $0.75M for 2nd time, $1M each for 3 or more ($0.2M for placing 2nd in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th, $50,000 for 5th)
MVP: $0.25M for winning, $0.15M for 2nd place in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th
WS MVP: $0.2M
Gold Glove, All Star selection or LCS MVP: $0.1M each

perks: suite on road trips

4 years/$9.3M (2002-05), plus $8.5M 2006 club option
$8.5M 2006 option became guaranteed 8/05 when Zito hit IP vesting mark

$0.4M signing bonus
02:$0.5M, 03:$0.9M, 04:$2.7M, 05:$4.8M, 06:$7M club option
escalators:

2004: $0.1M for 400 IP 2002-03, $0.2M for 420 IP 2002-03
2005: $0.7M for 540-630 IP 2002-04
2006: $0.2M for 570 IP 2002-05, $1.25M for Cy Young 02-05

$50,000 All Star bonus

signed extension 5/02, replacing 1 year/$0.295M deal for 2002
1 year/$0.24M (2001)
drafted 1999 (1-9), $1.59M signing bonus
agent: Scott Boras (re-hired 7/06, replacing Arn Tellum) (had fired Scott Boras late in 2001 season)
ML service: 6.072

 

Assuming Santana makes more, I would think it his contract would be somewhere around:

 

09:$18M, 10:$18M, 11:$20M, 12:$20M, 13:$22M, 14:$22M, 15:$25M, 16:$25M club option ($8M buyout)

 

Would total 8/160. I think that's probably reasonable for Santana.

 

I agree. My point is that that's not a whole lot better than Zito's for a MUCH better pitcher.

 

Edit: I see that above I stated he wouldn't get that. Probably too conservative on my part.

 

I could see the length of the deal going all the way up to 10 years as well. My first thought is who would be how many teams are going to go after him? I can see LAD, LAA, NYM, and NYY for sure. Maybe the BoSox depending on what happens with Lester/Buchholtz. The Cubs may be involved IF new ownership is in place.

 

Even if you get 2 of those teams bidding back and forth. He could top 200 million total on a deal, IMHO.

[Yanksfan1523]

Who is Santana's agent? That will play into it.

[Electron Blue]

IMHO, if I were a GM, I would not pay any pitcher much more than $20M/per... he would have to be head and shoulders above every other pitcher in the game.

[Yanksfan1523]

IMHO, if I were a GM, I would not pay any pitcher much more than $20M/per... he would have to be head and shoulders above every other pitcher in the game.

 

Doesn't Santana qualify?

[Have a seat, Neifi]

I wouldn't have any problem paying Santana $20 million a year. It's the length of the contract that would worry me. 4 or 5 years? Sure, why not. But no way in heck would I ever give a starting pitcher a 6-8 year deal. Way too much stress is put on their livelihood (their right or left arms) way too often to rely on them producing for that far into the future.

 

But yea, the dollars per year wouldn't bother me. You wouldn't pay $20 million a year to have 200 guaranteed innings of sub-3.00 ERA and 1.10-WHIP pitching? I definitely would...just not for 8 years.

[Yanksfan1523]

I wouldn't have any problem paying Santana $20 million a year. It's the length of the contract that would worry me. 4 or 5 years? Sure, why not. But no way in heck would I ever give a starting pitcher a 6-8 year deal. Way too much stress is put on their livelihood (their right or left arms) way too often to rely on them producing for that far into the future.

 

But yea, the dollars per year wouldn't bother me. You wouldn't pay $20 million a year to have 200 guaranteed innings of sub-3.00 ERA and 1.10-WHIP pitching? I definitely would...just not for 8 years.

 

I agree, Shorter contracts arer better. I would prefer 5-6 years myself. But Will he go 6 when Zito got 7?

[cbbryan]

Who is Santana's agent? That will play into it.

 

Peter Greenberg