Koji Uehara fails to qualify for free agency. Fukudome does.

[Mephistopheles]

I've been running around on Japanese sites trying to figure out how short he was (he is supposed to be an FA this year) but apparently he was like a week or two short of qualifying at the most. Pitchers in Japan are often deactivated for reasons such as "lack of pitching opportunities" and other bologna reasons. It is quite likely that this caused him not to be an FA. Sucks for him. He got jerked around this year too. He actually closed this year (which is dumb considering he's been the second best japanese starter this millennium and the second most consistent as well). He did manage to have a 66:4 K:BB. Oh well, his team doesn't recognize the posting system either. Stupid NPB rules.

 

Fukudome will be here this year, officially. He was actually 29 days short of qualifying but NPB just made a rule for time spent on the DL counting towards service time like it does here. Fukudome missed about half the season with an elbow injury. I'm not sure if that rule was retroactive to time spent on the DL before this season, if not that could be the main reason Uehara isn't.

[Rob]

Shame Uehara isn't eligible. He actually stood a chance to be a bargain.

 

At any rate, I guess now is as good a time as any to state my official support for Fukudome. In my little world, I'd be fine with watching Pie cover CF and Murton cover RF for a few years. (Well, I'd rather move Sori to right and put Murton back in left, but whatever) But since I don't forsee the both of them actually getting jobs on this club, Fukudome could work out real well for us. I keep hearing he profiles more as a RF, but that he could play a slightly sub-par CF. Seeing as how Pie is almost certainly getting sent to AAA to start the next season, I'd love for Fukudome to have CF until Pie is deemed ready, and then just move Fukudome over to right.

[Outshined_One]

I'd love to have Fukudome, but I worry about how much money the Cubs have to spend this offseason.

 

If they can pick him up, I'm curious as to the kind of trade value they'd find for Jock, Pie, and Murton on the market. I don't expect all of them to be traded, mind you, but Fukudome gives this team flexibility in the OF.

[anabiono]

all i know is that if pie is packaged...god forbid...it better be for someone very choice...and someone coming from the AL...

 

if pie is traded within the division i will eat rocks

[jyoung55]

Shame Uehara isn't eligible. He actually stood a chance to be a bargain.

 

At any rate, I guess now is as good a time as any to state my official support for Fukudome. In my little world, I'd be fine with watching Pie cover CF and Murton cover RF for a few years. (Well, I'd rather move Sori to right and put Murton back in left, but whatever) But since I don't forsee the both of them actually getting jobs on this club, Fukudome could work out real well for us. I keep hearing he profiles more as a RF, but that he could play a slightly sub-par CF. Seeing as how Pie is almost certainly getting sent to AAA to start the next season, I'd love for Fukudome to have CF until Pie is deemed ready, and then just move Fukudome over to right.

 

Rationale for this speculation?

 

And what do people think Fukudome's numbers will translate to over here?

[Mephistopheles]

trading pie would be the best thing the organization could do. hes not very good. hes not what we need.

[Derwood]

that's some mighty fine grammar in that thread title

[javy knows my name]

that's some mighty fine grammar in that thread title

 

Haha yeah, but I knew what he meant right away, which is more than I can say for this:

 

Where else does a business with half the budget dictate protocol for the “super powers” except in the business of baseball?

 

or this

 

In the case of the Oakland A’s and GM Billy Beane, quite a phenomenon exists throughout a majority of the monopoly consisting of major league baseball teams.

[Bruno7481]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

[CuseCubFan69]

I just don't want to work the game threads when Fukudome is playing. The temptation would be too great for the angry and upset.

[NCCubFan]

I just don't want to work the game threads when Fukudome is playing. The temptation would be too great for the angry and upset.

The word sensors might need to be modified. :D

[NCCubFan]

I've been running around on Japanese sites trying to figure out how short he was (he is supposed to be an FA this year) but apparently he was like a week or two short of qualifying at the most. Pitchers in Japan are often deactivated for reasons such as "lack of pitching opportunities" and other bologna reasons. It is quite likely that this caused him not to be an FA.

Sounds similar to teams who send rookies down at the start of a season and keep them in the minors long enough to delay free agency by a year. Like the Cubs did with Kerry Wood in 1998.

[javy knows my name]

I just don't want to work the game threads when Fukudome is playing. The temptation would be too great for the angry and upset.

 

Soap-drop-udome!! :lol:

[Butterscup1679666578]

So since my baseball knowledge is lacking in the Japanese market-area, what kind of player are we looking at with Fukudome? Power? Speed? Good arm?

[nilodnayr]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

 

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you.

 

Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

[Bruno7481]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

 

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you.

 

Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

 

Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it.

 

So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect?

[nilodnayr]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

 

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you.

 

Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

 

Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it.

 

So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect?

 

Because Japan is essentially AAAA. Some guys are AAAA players and that is where their ceiling lies. Others are able to adapt to a higher level of competition and succeed. Not every player that does well in the minors or Japan is going to do well in the majors. However, that does not mean that everyone who does well is going to fail when they take the next step.

 

What you are essentially saying is that since Jason Dubois did well in AAA but failed in the majors then we shouldn't expect Felix Pie to succeed.

 

Its a fallacy in logic.

[Bruno7481]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

 

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you.

 

Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

 

Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it.

 

So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect?

 

Because Japan is essentially AAAA. Some guys are AAAA players and that is where their ceiling lies. Others are able to adapt to a higher level of competition and succeed. Not every player that does well in the minors or Japan is going to do well in the majors. However, that does not mean that everyone who does well is going to fail when they take the next step.

 

What you are essentially saying is that since Jason Dubois did well in AAA but failed in the majors then we shouldn't expect Felix Pie to succeed.

 

Its a fallacy in logic.

 

No its not. It is a lot easier to take the risk with Pie because, relatively, he isn't making any money.

 

Can't say the same for these high profile FA from Japan.

[Mephistopheles]

its a high risk high reward move. i would suggest doing it because our cfers suck

[nilodnayr]

Someone convince me why signing him would be a smart decision. Meph posted some stats a few days ago, the year he had was comparable to the year of Tuffy Rhodes. I know he was hurt, so that might explain part of it.

 

I just get a little worried about committing huge sums of money to someone who when it comes down to it, is unproven at the Major League level.

 

He might be a hell of a player, his numbers are good. But are they good enough to remove all doubt?

 

Tuffy is one of the best power hitters over there year in year out, but I wouldn't let that deter you.

 

Although, as its been stated, pitchers usually work out better than hitters. I could be off on this, but I see him producing his first year in the majors something like what Abreu put up this year. He might gain a little power in subsequent years, but I don't think he'll be equal to Hideki Matsui.

 

Well, that was kind of my point. Rhodes got an invite to ST with the Reds a few years back and didnt make it.

 

So, if Rhodes can't cut it at the ML level (or at least not what he has done Japan) why should the Cubs consider paying a lot of money, especially in an offseason where it will most likely be scarce, for an unproven Japanese prospect?

 

Because Japan is essentially AAAA. Some guys are AAAA players and that is where their ceiling lies. Others are able to adapt to a higher level of competition and succeed. Not every player that does well in the minors or Japan is going to do well in the majors. However, that does not mean that everyone who does well is going to fail when they take the next step.

 

What you are essentially saying is that since Jason Dubois did well in AAA but failed in the majors then we shouldn't expect Felix Pie to succeed.

 

Its a fallacy in logic.

 

No its not. It is a lot easier to take the risk with Pie because, relatively, he isn't making any money.

 

Can't say the same for these high profile FA from Japan.

 

Yes it is. Its the same thing as if a team was making a deal with the cubs back when Dubois was on the team. They could have exchanged a lot of value for a Pie or a little value for a Dubois. Whether you are talking in terms of players or dollars, the fact is that Tuffy Rhodes while putting up good numbers in the same league does not project to have anywhere near the value that Fukudome does. Hence, if you wanted to sign Tuffy Rhodes, you could for a ST invite, but you'd have to give up more value for Fukudome.

 

As Meph stated, there is a risk/reward balance that you have to assume. But that is not just limited to guys coming from another hemisphere. There is a risk/reward in signing Bobby Abreu too (and anyone for that matter).

 

Risk/reward is a much different conversation though than stating, well Player A sucked in the majors and he dominated League X and Player B dominated that same league, so Player B is going to suck in the majors. Thats the fallacy.

[badnews]

I don't really agree with that assessment. If you think about, there's not a lot of reason to take anyone's word on Fukudome, all we're doing is tossing around glittering blandishments.

 

the fact is that Tuffy Rhodes while putting up good numbers in the same league does not project to have anywhere near the value that Fukudome does.

 

I'm not sure how that qualifies as a fact. I know that Iwamura and Johjima put up some good numbers in Japan, especially in the last two years before they came over, they signed for modest contracts, and are putting up OPSes in the mid .700s. What is the dollar total for Johjima and Iwamura's contracts? $16 million? What's the numbers we hear get tossed around for Fukudome? A 4 year, $52 million deal maybe? Is Fukudome going to put up numbers 3-4 times better than those guys? Doubtful.

 

I agree with Bobby Abreu 2007 type numbers, or 2007 J. D. Drew numbers. The problem is, I don't think those numbers are a good use of $12-13 million a year. It's weird, Bobby Abreu 2007 numbers are close to Jose Guillen 2007 numbers, but nobody wants to pay Jose Guillen anything.

 

Matt Murton has half a chance to put up some permutation of an .814 OPS. I don't like long committments and pricey ones to players that don't look like great.

[nilodnayr]

I don't really agree with that assessment. If you think about, there's not a lot of reason to take anyone's word on Fukudome, all we're doing is tossing around glittering blandishments.

 

the fact is that Tuffy Rhodes while putting up good numbers in the same league does not project to have anywhere near the value that Fukudome does.

 

I'm not sure how that qualifies as a fact. I know that Iwamura and Johjima put up some good numbers in Japan, especially in the last two years before they came over, they signed for modest contracts, and are putting up OPSes in the mid .700s. What is the dollar total for Johjima and Iwamura's contracts? $16 million? What's the numbers we hear get tossed around for Fukudome? A 4 year, $52 million deal maybe? Is Fukudome going to put up numbers 3-4 times better than those guys? Doubtful.

 

I agree with Bobby Abreu 2007 type numbers, or 2007 J. D. Drew numbers. The problem is, I don't think those numbers are a good use of $12-13 million a year. It's weird, Bobby Abreu 2007 numbers are close to Jose Guillen 2007 numbers, but nobody wants to pay Jose Guillen anything.

 

Matt Murton has half a chance to put up some permutation of an .814 OPS. I don't like long committments and pricey ones to players that don't look like great.

 

And compare Fukudome with Hideki Matsui. Slap hitters like Ichiro and Kaz adjust well, but non slap hitters like Hideki Matsui have a transition period. Also, other things are in play with Johjima (has to adjust to catching as well and is on the wrong side of 30) and Iwamura (was injured most of the year). Fukudome is a superior hitter to both, but probably not as good as Matsui.

 

My end conclusion is the same as yours though. I don't think the $ that would be needed would provide the marginal upgrade over Murton to justify. Fukudome could probably play center, but unless we are trading Pie, I don't know why we'd be looking for a long term replacement there.

[JeffH]

In what alternate universe has the awful Kaz Matsui "adjusted well" to major league pitching?

[nilodnayr]

In what alternate universe has the awful Kaz Matsui "adjusted well" to major league pitching?

 

Yeah, I shouldn't post early in the morning. What I was trying to say is that a slap hitter will most likely show his "true colors" in the majors in his first year as opposed to a power hitter who needs more time to adjust.

 

There really aren't enough players to have a decent sample size, but it seems intuitive. If your only goal is to make contact, its going to be easier to adjust quickly to better/different pitching than if your goal is to make contact with power.