What will it take to get Soriano out of the leadoff spot?

[Sammy Sofa]

See, I'd bat Soriano between Lee and Ramirez. How many people would risk walking him with ARAM on deck? He would see a ton of fastballs with men on base.

 

That's really the only suggestion that makes much sense if we're talking moving him out of leadoff.

[Abe Frohman]

If you look at the numbers (last time I checked) Soriano had stolen only one base since coming back from the leg injury. He had been running gingerly for the first few weeks - so why bat him leadoff?

 

He doesn't get on base enough, and he isn't really a threat to run. He has one swing and doesn't adjust it with the count. He hit for great power the last month, and seems like he would have been a lot more effective lower in the order.

 

When he's healthy and a stolen base threat - bat him leadoff, but only if we get a legit 3-4-5 power group (sign a big bat).

 

LF - Soriano

2B - Theriot/DeRosa

SS - Rodriguez

1B - Lee

3B - Ramirez

CA - Soto

RF - Jones/Murton

CF - Pie

 

or...

 

LF - Soriano

SS - Theriot

RF - Abreu

1B - Lee

3B - Ramirez

CA - Soto

2B - DeRosa

CF - Pie

 

Either way, we don't have enough Left-Handed bats in the lineup.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, his OBP isn't the greatest, but are we really talking about speed and stealing bases as if they're required for someone to be a leadoff hitter? That's pure Dustyball.

[Roast]

What will it take to get Soriano out of the leadoff spot

 

Rickey Henderson to return, and play for the cubs.

[Abe Frohman]

OK, his OBP isn't the greatest, but are we really talking about speed and stealing bases as if they're required for someone to be a leadoff hitter? That's pure Dustyball.

 

I like a higher OB% in the leadoff spot, and realize that the big contribution Soriano makes at the top of the order is the very occasional solo home run, and disruption of the pitcher via the threat to steal.

 

As mentioned above, Soriano stole one base since returning from the DL - and he didn't seem to be running enough to even steal his way into scoring position. With his low OB%, his shut-down running game, and his uneffected power - why didn't he hit lower in the order when he returned to the lineup? Theriot was doing a good job leading off.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, his OBP isn't the greatest, but are we really talking about speed and stealing bases as if they're required for someone to be a leadoff hitter? That's pure Dustyball.

 

I like a higher OB% in the leadoff spot, and realize that the big contribution Soriano makes at the top of the order is the very occasional solo home run, and disruption of the pitcher via the threat to steal.

 

As mentioned above, Soriano stole one base since returning from the DL - and he didn't seem to be running enough to even steal his way into scoring position. With his low OB%, his shut-down running game, and his uneffected power - why didn't he hit lower in the order when he returned to the lineup? Theriot was doing a good job leading off.

 

Stick with the OBP argument then. It's far more valuable than steals. I'd happily take a leadoff hitter who always had around a .400 OBP or better and never stole a base. Trying to hinge an argument for a leadoff hitter around stolen bases is ultimately antiquated and completely ignoring the most valuable role of a leadoff hitter.

 

And Theriot, I believe, didn't do much better, if at all, in terms of OBP. It was basically having Soriano with zero power and the ability to steal a few bases here or there...something Soriano will likely be able to do again next year once his leg has fully healed. Theriot should be nowhere near the first 2 spots of the order when he plays.

 

The main argument against batting Soriano elsewhere in the lineup is how awful he is with people on base and how over his career he has, for whatever reason, thrived as a leadoff hitter. The only suggestion elsewhere I've seen so far that makes sense is putting him between two other power hitters at the #4 spot. Batting him 5th is a terrible idea.

[Abe Frohman]

Stick with the OBP argument then. It's far more valuable than steals.

 

Totally agree. Though a "Rickey" type leadoff man who gets on base, then gets himself in scoring position is undeniably the ultimate leadoff man.

 

And Theriot, I believe, didn't do much better, if at all, in terms of OBP. It was basically having Soriano with zero power and the ability to steal a few bases here or there... Theriot should be nowhere near the first 2 spots of the order when he plays.

 

Totally disagree.

 

In 161 plate appearances batting leadoff (in 2007) , Theriot hit .300 with a .342 OB % - and scored 30 runs after reaching base 42 times. All of which really isn't bad considering this was his first full year.

[Sammy Sofa]

And Theriot, I believe, didn't do much better, if at all, in terms of OBP. It was basically having Soriano with zero power and the ability to steal a few bases here or there... Theriot should be nowhere near the first 2 spots of the order when he plays.

 

Totally disagree.

 

In 161 plate appearances batting leadoff (in 2007) , Theriot hit .300 with a .342 OB % - and scored 30 runs after reaching base 42 times. All of which really isn't bad considering this was his first full year.

 

But isn't that just comparable with Soriano at best? The only real reason Soriano is in leadoff is because that's where he for whatever reason realizes he has power. Theriot has none of that power. Those numbers you posted are pretty much what I expected Theriot had done and are exactly why I don't wnat him hitting in the top 2 spots. In my pipe dream of getting ARod, the ideal situation is putting Lee at #2, which gives you the desired OBP and gets Soriano either on base more or seeing more pitches he can pound out. I think you'd get a somewhat downgraded version of that situation by putting Murton or (even lesser) DeRosa there as opposed to guys like Theriot.

[Abe Frohman]

Ryan Theriot is the ideal #2 hitter in my book. He has clearly proven that he will sacrifice himself to get the runners over for the big bats by bunting, hitting to the right side, whatever.

 

He is one of the better #2 hitters the Cubs have had, just was a little too streaky. Even when he was cold, he executed what the Cubs needed. Jay Bell was the best #2 hitter I can remember as far as executing and doing a situational job. He was a .265 lifetime hitter. Theriot is sort of a less power/more speed version of Jay Bell if I had to classify him.

[Guest]

Ryan Theriot is the ideal #2 hitter in my book. He has clearly proven that he will sacrifice himself to get the runners over for the big bats by bunting, hitting to the right side, whatever.

 

He is one of the better #2 hitters the Cubs have had, just was a little too streaky. Even when he was cold, he executed what the Cubs needed. Jay Bell was the best #2 hitter I can remember as far as executing and doing a situational job. He was a .265 lifetime hitter. Theriot is sort of a less power/more speed version of Jay Bell if I had to classify him.

 

Unfortunately those selfless things don't nearly as much to score runs and win games as getting on base in front of your power guys do.

[Sammy Sofa]

The main job of the #2 hitter is to get on base in front of the big bats right behind him, anything else is cake. Theriot simply has not shown he can sustain an ideal OBP to really be effective in that slot over the entire season. Speed is almost entirely moot. Sure, he can sacrifice when needed, but shouldn't the preferred option be that he ideally get on base without giving up an out? You're basically arguing that you want him to show up and be an automatic out. "Moving the baserunner up" really isn't that necessary, in theory, with the big bats coming up unless the baserunner is one of the slowest around.

 

I know the point of this thread is that some people don't want Soriano batting leadoff, but it seems very unlikely that's going to happen anytime soon. The ideal situation to maximize him then is to put a hitter around him that the pitchers at least view as somewhat of a threat, either because they're going to get on base or because they have some power. Murton has shown he can do both. Even DeRosa can do both better than Theriot. Soriano is either going to be walked at least a few more times or see some more hittable pitches if you stack the batters coming up after him. Theriot, like it or not, is not really anywhere near being that kind of threat. He's not going to enhance Soriano's AB's, he's not going to get on base consistently at or over a .350 OBP...what good is he in that role besides being able to sacrifice himself?

[Guest]

The main job of the #2 hitter is to get on base in front of the big bats right behind him, anything else is cake. Theriot simply has not shown he can sustain an ideal OBP to really be effective in that slot over the entire season. Speed is almost entirely moot. Sure, he can sacrifice when needed, but shouldn't the preferred option be that he ideally get on base without giving up an out? You're basically arguing that you want him to show up and be an automatic out. "Moving the baserunner up" really isn't that necessary, in theory, with the big bats coming up unless the baserunner is one of the slowest around.

 

I know the point of this thread is that some people don't want Soriano batting leadoff, but it seems very unlikely that's going to happen anytime soon. The ideal situation to maximize him then is to put a hitter around him that the pitchers at least view as somewhat of a threat, either because they're going to get on base or because they have some power. Murton has shown he can do both. Even DeRosa can do both better than Theriot. Soriano is either going to be walked at least a few more times or see some more hittable pitches if you stack the batters coming up after him. Theriot, like it or not, is not really anywhere near being that kind of threat. He's not going to enhance Soriano's AB's, he's not going to get on base consistently at or over a .350 OBP...what good is he in that role besides being able to sacrifice himself?

 

 

didn't soriano draw a whole lot more walks when he didn't have any protection in Washington? There really are very few situations where moving a runner up with an out is useful.

[Sammy Sofa]

The main job of the #2 hitter is to get on base in front of the big bats right behind him, anything else is cake. Theriot simply has not shown he can sustain an ideal OBP to really be effective in that slot over the entire season. Speed is almost entirely moot. Sure, he can sacrifice when needed, but shouldn't the preferred option be that he ideally get on base without giving up an out? You're basically arguing that you want him to show up and be an automatic out. "Moving the baserunner up" really isn't that necessary, in theory, with the big bats coming up unless the baserunner is one of the slowest around.

 

I know the point of this thread is that some people don't want Soriano batting leadoff, but it seems very unlikely that's going to happen anytime soon. The ideal situation to maximize him then is to put a hitter around him that the pitchers at least view as somewhat of a threat, either because they're going to get on base or because they have some power. Murton has shown he can do both. Even DeRosa can do both better than Theriot. Soriano is either going to be walked at least a few more times or see some more hittable pitches if you stack the batters coming up after him. Theriot, like it or not, is not really anywhere near being that kind of threat. He's not going to enhance Soriano's AB's, he's not going to get on base consistently at or over a .350 OBP...what good is he in that role besides being able to sacrifice himself?

 

 

didn't soriano draw a whole lot more walks when he didn't have any protection in Washington? There really are very few situations where moving a runner up with an out is useful.

 

He did, because he was the only real power threat in the lineup, so he had a lot more intentional walks than ever before. I was thinking he might draw a few more walks with pitchers trying to nibble around him, but then I remembered how often he strikes out on pitches like that, so that part of it was definitely a mistake on my part. I do still think he'd get more hits with a better hitter behind him in the #2 spot.

 

And I couldn't agree more with the second part. Abe seems like a nice guy, but he really buys into some of the main aspects of Dustyball when it comes to speed and sac bunting and such.

[Abe Frohman]

Abe seems like a nice guy, but he really buys into some of the main aspects of Dustyball when it comes to speed and sac bunting and such.

 

Thanks, but I don't like the methods Dusty used. I love statistics and playing the odds (to a degree) - but I don't agree with the popular "it doesn't matter where you bat in the order" and such.

 

I love the game, and I am down with small ball, especially when a team has to manufacture a run. It is beautiful to me when a team works together to manufacture a run. Sometimes, it takes sacrifice. I am a big fan of Ryan Theriot for a few reasons, mainly because he plays the game the right way. His slumps were unbearable, but even then he executed in tight situations and wasn't ever really an easy out.

 

Derrek Lee and Soriano were the only Cubs to score more runs than Theriot. To score 80 runs in your first Big League season isn't bad. His OB was down from what I think he will average over his career should he remain a starter - but his numbers were respectable for his first full year in the MLs.

 

This Cub team was not a power threat, which probably is why they were so inconsistant this season. It seemed like at times they were playing for the 3-run homer, if you know what I mean. That didn't happen too much until the latter months of the season. When you can execute station-to-station baseball - conditions don't become such a factor, and run production increases.

[Sammy Sofa]

Abe seems like a nice guy, but he really buys into some of the main aspects of Dustyball when it comes to speed and sac bunting and such.

 

Thanks, but I don't like the methods Dusty used. I love statistics and playing the odds (to a degree) - but I don't agree with the popular "it doesn't matter where you bat in the order" and such.

 

I'm not that extreme, but I think it's far less defined thatn a lot of people think....like thinking the scrappy fast guy HAS to be in one of the top two slots despite having glaring holes when it comes to the production actually needed from those spots. That's not to say Soriano is perfect up top...he obviously isn't. But he has the x-factor of his tremendous power AND being fast (when healthy, which he almost always is except for part of this past season) that ultimately makes it workable. No, it's not necessarily ideal, but it's clearly what the Cubs have, so they need to then look at maximizing the production of the #2 spot. Playing "smallball" with Soriano is ultimately pointless since he's fast enough to score on the majority of hits from first that would also score him from 2nd. If the Cubs put the right batter at #2, they wouldn't worry about having to suffer a "noble sacrifice" so damn often. Putting someone there who hits at a good clip and has a decent +.350 OBP is still going to accomplish the moving over you want, but often without having to give up an out!

 

I love the game, and I am down with small ball, especially when a team has to manufacture a run. It is beautiful to me when a team works together to manufacture a run. Sometimes, it takes sacrifice.

 

Yes, but a team shouldn't always HAVE to manufacture a run like you're talking about. Having to resort to that kind of smallball should be the exception when needed, not the rule, on the MLB level.

 

I am a big fan of Ryan Theriot for a few reasons, mainly because he plays the game the right way. His slumps were unbearable, but even then he executed in tight situations and wasn't ever really an easy out.

 

Butwhat does the "right way" mean? He underperforms in almost all major offensive categories if he's supposed to be an everyday player. And what do you mean about him not being an easy out? In the last month of the season, someone posted stats in one of the game threads that Theriot for the year was averaging less pitchers per AB than the team average.

 

Derrek Lee and Soriano were the only Cubs to score more runs than Theriot. To score 80 runs in your first Big League season isn't bad. His OB was down from what I think he will average over his career should he remain a starter - but his numbers were respectable for his first full year in the MLs.

 

I have to disagree on this, especially the last sentence. And 80 runs is OK...a better hitter is going to score a LOT more? Why settle for around 80?

 

This Cub team was not a power threat, which probably is why they were so inconsistant this season. It seemed like at times they were playing for the 3-run homer, if you know what I mean. That didn't happen too much until the latter months of the season. When you can execute station-to-station baseball - conditions don't become such a factor, and run production increases.

 

But it's a huge leap to expect that steep a dropoff in power to continue, especially since the end of the season showed that it's very likely that it won't. Besides, to play "smallball," you need guys getting on base at a better clip than Theriot. If you want him bunting and slapping and all that stuff, it needs to be further down in the order where there's less power, not up top where we need guys on base and people who can actually drive runners in.

[jersey cubs fan]

If Theriot were any good, I'd think his style of play would look great in the 2 hole. Unfortunately, his style doesn't translate to actual production, and the Cubs need productive hitters.

 

 

My big fear about finding a way to get Soriano out of leadoff is Hendry going on another "stereotypical" leadoff hitter search and coming back with another clunker like Pierre, or Theriot. If they come up with a guy who gets on base a lot and is actually, you know, good, then I'm all for the move. But if keeping Soriano leading off means Jim might focus on a good middle of the order hitter instead of another bad leadoff hitter, that's much better.

[CubColtPacer]

 

I love the game, and I am down with small ball, especially when a team has to manufacture a run. It is beautiful to me when a team works together to manufacture a run. Sometimes, it takes sacrifice. I am a big fan of Ryan Theriot for a few reasons, mainly because he plays the game the right way. His slumps were unbearable, but even then he executed in tight situations and wasn't ever really an easy out.

 

He wasn't ever an easy out? The only position players who averaged less pitches per plate appearance than Theriot were either demoted or traded (Izturis, Moore, Fox). Everybody else saw more pitches than Theriot.

 

Theriot made an out 67 times on the first pitch. 67 times! The only other Cub above 50 is Aramis Ramirez with 57 times.

 

On the second pitch, Theriot made an out 69 times. That's good for 2nd on the team behind Soriano (77 times).

 

On the third pitch, Theriot made an out 90 times. That's good for 2nd on the team again behind Soriano (94 times)

 

Theriot has made the most outs on the first 3 pitches on the team (19 more outs overall than 2nd place Soriano). Soriano also had 42 more overall at-bats then Theriot, so Theriot had a much higher out percentage on the first 3 pitches.

 

The leader in making outs early in the count should never be a non-power hitter, and Theriot is way in front in that category. A non-power hitter should also never see the least number of pitches on the team. He certainly isn't what you described when you said that he was never an easy out.

Edited October 12, 2007 by CubColtPacer

[Sammy Sofa]

Dude, fix the quote function on your post. It looks like you quoted me trying to sell Theriot.

[CubColtPacer]

Dude, fix the quote function on your post. It looks like you quoted me trying to sell Theriot.

 

Sorry, that's what happens when you try to snip quotes quickly :D. It's fixed now.

[Sammy Sofa]

Dude, fix the quote function on your post. It looks like you quoted me trying to sell Theriot.

 

Sorry, that's what happens when you try to snip quotes quickly :D. It's fixed now.

 

Heh, thanks. I was being nitpicky, I know.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I love the game, and I am down with small ball, especially when a team has to manufacture a run. It is beautiful to me when a team works together to manufacture a run. Sometimes, it takes sacrifice. I am a big fan of Ryan Theriot for a few reasons, mainly because he plays the game the right way. His slumps were unbearable, but even then he executed in tight situations and wasn't ever really an easy out.

 

He wasn't ever an easy out? The only position players who averaged less pitches per plate appearance than Theriot were either demoted or traded (Izturis, Moore, Fox). Everybody else saw more pitches than Theriot.

 

Theriot made an out 67 times on the first pitch. 67 times! The only other Cub above 50 is Aramis Ramirez with 57 times.

 

On the second pitch, Theriot made an out 69 times. That's good for 2nd on the team behind Soriano (77 times).

 

On the third pitch, Theriot made an out 90 times. That's good for 2nd on the team again behind Soriano (94 times)

 

Theriot has made the most outs on the first 3 pitches on the team (19 more outs overall than 2nd place Soriano). Soriano also had 42 more overall at-bats then Theriot, so Theriot had a much higher out percentage on the first 3 pitches.

 

The leader in making outs early in the count should never be a non-power hitter, and Theriot is way in front in that category. A non-power hitter should also never see the least number of pitches on the team. He certainly isn't what you described when you said that he was never an easy out.

 

Yes, but since he ran out those ground balls and pop outs, it wasn't easy. They actually had to make the play.

[NewUserName]

 

I love the game, and I am down with small ball, especially when a team has to manufacture a run. It is beautiful to me when a team works together to manufacture a run. Sometimes, it takes sacrifice. I am a big fan of Ryan Theriot for a few reasons, mainly because he plays the game the right way. His slumps were unbearable, but even then he executed in tight situations and wasn't ever really an easy out.

 

He wasn't ever an easy out? The only position players who averaged less pitches per plate appearance than Theriot were either demoted or traded (Izturis, Moore, Fox). Everybody else saw more pitches than Theriot.

 

Theriot made an out 67 times on the first pitch. 67 times! The only other Cub above 50 is Aramis Ramirez with 57 times.

 

On the second pitch, Theriot made an out 69 times. That's good for 2nd on the team behind Soriano (77 times).

 

On the third pitch, Theriot made an out 90 times. That's good for 2nd on the team again behind Soriano (94 times)

 

Theriot has made the most outs on the first 3 pitches on the team (19 more outs overall than 2nd place Soriano). Soriano also had 42 more overall at-bats then Theriot, so Theriot had a much higher out percentage on the first 3 pitches.

 

The leader in making outs early in the count should never be a non-power hitter, and Theriot is way in front in that category. A non-power hitter should also never see the least number of pitches on the team. He certainly isn't what you described when you said that he was never an easy out.

 

 

Good job with the work on this CCP. I have a question that maybe you could answer. Did this get worse as the season progressed? It seemed early in the year he was doing a good job of working counts. Was I just thinking this compared to Cedeno and Izturius or was it true. After his little hot spell in Aug he really looked like a first pitch hacker the rest of the year.

[KenCub]

I heard Lou on the radio this morning and he said he's happy with Soriano in the leadoff spot and he has no plans to move him down.

He said the challenge the Cubs face in the offseason is to get faster and more versatile in other spots in the order.

[VVMattVV]

He said the challenge the Cubs face in the offseason is to get faster and more versatile in other spots in the order.

 

Lou is wrong.

[E.J.]

I heard Lou on the radio this morning and he said he's happy with Soriano in the leadoff spot and he has no plans to move him down.

He said the challenge the Cubs face in the offseason is to get faster and more versatile in other spots in the order.

 

I hope the Yankees come calling. Lou's an idiot.