Nice article on Murton

[Magnetic Curses]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

These are season totals, not rightie splits......

 

04/02 - 09/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton            190   27   52    9    0    6   79   17   21   29  0.274  0.346  0.416  0.762  0.297
Floyd             244   32   69    9    0    5   93   39   24   42  0.283  0.354  0.381  0.735  0.325

 

actually, after looking, floyd has over 100 more plate appearnces against righties than does murton.

[Peoriaman]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

These are season totals, not rightie splits......

 

04/02 - 09/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton            190   27   52    9    0    6   79   17   21   29  0.274  0.346  0.416  0.762  0.297
Floyd             244   32   69    9    0    5   93   39   24   42  0.283  0.354  0.381  0.735  0.325

 

 

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Peoriaman

[Keener98]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

that's what i get for speaking without looking.

 

Floyd has 100 more ab's against righties than Murton

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Fred, do you have those splits since Murton came back up against righties?

 

These are totals since 27 July..... I don't have L/R splits; I gotta look them up , too !!

 

07/27 - 09/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton             71   11   22    2    0    5   39    9    7   11  0.310  0.372  0.549  0.921  0.309
Floyd              57    5   14    2    0    1   19    6    6   10  0.246  0.338  0.333  0.672  0.283

[UK1679666180]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

[Magnetic Curses]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

that's what i get for speaking without looking.

 

Floyd has 100 more ab's against righties than Murton

 

i know, i wish i wasn't so lazy. but i posted as much above. thanks, though.

 

one thing, not trying to be smarmy or anything, but i hate the term "AB". "PA" is much better. AB doesn't catch walks, hbp, or sacs, which can add up throughout the course of season.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Stannis

[David]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

that's what i get for speaking without looking.

 

It was actually only 118 ABs for the stats (righty splits) he cited on Murton. ESPN doesn't list PAs and I don't feel like checking another site right now, but it certainly wasn't 190.

 

Floyd has 213 ABs vs. righties.

[Keener98]

 

Fred, do you have those splits since Murton came back up against righties?

 

These are totals since 27 July..... I don't have L/R splits; I gotta look them up , too !!

 

07/27 - 09/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton             71   11   22    2    0    5   39    9    7   11  0.310  0.372  0.549  0.921  0.309
Floyd              57    5   14    2    0    1   19    6    6   10  0.246  0.338  0.333  0.672  0.283

 

Does more really need to be said on this subject?

 

Care if I sig this fred?

[Peoriaman]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

 

My agenda is to play the player who will most likely help us win. For the reasons you stated, I agree that man is Murton.

 

But some say recent trends mean nothing, but that season long or career trends mean everything. Then they change that tune when it suits their purpose and use only recent trends.

 

Me, I like going with the hot hand unless the long-term trend is overwhelming.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Peoriaman

[David]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

[Peoriaman]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

that's what i get for speaking without looking.

 

Floyd has 100 more ab's against righties than Murton

 

i know, i wish i wasn't so lazy. but i posted as much above. thanks, though.

 

one thing, not trying to be smarmy or anything, but i hate the term "AB". "PA" is much better. AB doesn't catch walks, hbp, or sacs, which can add up throughout the course of season.

 

 

PA's were essentially the same difference.

[Keener98]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

I agree with everything you said Ping. I really wouldnt care who it was putting up the numbers Murton has for the last 2 months, but whoever that person is should be starting everyday. Floyd hasnt had a 2 month stretch like this of Murtons all year. It is pretty safe to say, Floyds days as an everyday starter are over, and all the numbers prove this.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Care if I sig this fred?

 

Feel free. This one might fit better....

 

07/27 - 09/02      AB    R    H  RBI     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton             71   11   22    9  0.310  0.372  0.549  0.921  0.309
Floyd              57    5   14    6  0.246  0.338  0.333  0.672  0.283

[Keener98]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

 

My agenda is to play the player who will most likely help us win. For the reasons you stated, I agree that man is Floyd.

 

But some say recent trends mean nothing, but that season long or career trends mean everything. Then they change that tune when it suits their purpose and use only recent trends.

 

Me, I like going with the hot hand unless the long-term trent is overwhelming.

 

LOL

[Peoriaman]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

[Keener98]

 

Care if I sig this fred?

 

Feel free. This one might fit better....

 

07/27 - 09/02      AB    R    H  RBI     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton             71   11   22    9  0.310  0.372  0.549  0.921  0.309
Floyd              57    5   14    6  0.246  0.338  0.333  0.672  0.283

 

Thanks Fred, now lets see if Im smart enough to figure out how to do it lol

[Magnetic Curses]

floyd 354/380/282

 

murton 333/390/254

 

on-base/ slugging/ BA

 

These are the season stats against righties. Now, before you get all hot and bothered, I would vote for Murton to play in front of Floyd, but their season stats shows Floyd with a slight edge against righties. My point is Murton's season stats alone don't make him the starter.

 

As far as defense, both are below average. Murton is clearly faster.

 

what are the sample sizes here? comparing murton's handful of plate appearances to floyd's wealth of them doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture.

 

 

190 ab's for Murton and 243 for Floyd.

 

These are season totals, not rightie splits......

 

04/02 - 09/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Murton            190   27   52    9    0    6   79   17   21   29  0.274  0.346  0.416  0.762  0.297
Floyd             244   32   69    9    0    5   93   39   24   42  0.283  0.354  0.381  0.735  0.325

 

 

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

and we're saying that the small sample size disallows a judgement to be made one way or another with any degree of significance.

 

ba w/risp? unicorn stat.

[Peoriaman]

sorry, typo, I meant Murton. :)

[UK1679666180]

 

 

My agenda is to play the player who will most likely help us win. For the reasons you stated, I agree that man is Floyd.

 

But some say recent trends mean nothing, but that season long or career trends mean everything. Then they change that tune when it suits their purpose and use only recent trends.

 

Me, I like going with the hot hand unless the long-term trent is overwhelming.

 

Did I say the bolded part?

 

Recent trends mean more for the short-term ala 30 days than they do for next year.

 

If you're talking about over the course of an entire season say '08, I would put more validity into what they've over their career factoring age, health, salary etc. into the equation as to which one would provide more production.

[David]

That is correct.

 

Listen, fellas, you can't have it both ways. You can't use stats to support your arguments, then shy away from them when they don't support your arguments. I said I think Murton should be playing in front of Floyd, but the stats against righties don't necessarily support that. Neither does BA with RISP.

 

Why are you citing what is essentially a meaningless stat? It has no predictive value and only tells you how lucky the hitter has been in the past.

 

 

Meaningless to you, not to me. I like guys who hit well with men on base. Murton's BA with RISP has been much worse than his BA for his entire MLB career.

 

That siad, I support Matt to play in front of Floyd. I like his hot bat now.

 

It's meaningless because all it tells you is that that player has happened to have runners on base when he's gotten his hits. On top of that, rarely do you ever have enough of a sample size with RISP stats to conclude anything meaningful.

[Peoriaman]

 

 

My agenda is to play the player who will most likely help us win. For the reasons you stated, I agree that man is Floyd.

 

But some say recent trends mean nothing, but that season long or career trends mean everything. Then they change that tune when it suits their purpose and use only recent trends.

 

Me, I like going with the hot hand unless the long-term trent is overwhelming.

 

Did I say the bolded part?

 

No. you didn't Ping. I agree with you.

 

That "bolded part" was aimed at those who twist stats for their own argument. As I said, I'd go with Matt now. I don't particularly like Floyd or his game.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Peoriaman

[CubColtPacer]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

Agreed. Murton should be getting the PT because he is doing well, just like Floyd got the PT deservedly when he was doing better than Murton in the first half of the season.

 

Murton's nobody on and runners on situation just keeps getting stranger and stranger.

 

Here are his career numbers:

Nobody on (464 AB's): .330/.385/.526

Runners on (321 AB's): .246/.335/.346

 

Now, it's still only 785 at-bats, and it still has plenty of time to turn around. 230 points is still an absolutely massive difference for that number of at-bats. Maybe he is too patient with runners on? (his walk rate and strikeout rate on his career are both up with runners on, while his BA and power are way down. That suggests too much patience in those situations).

 

Like I've said before, that still doesn't mean that you don't start Murton. Even if you believe these numbers won't turn around, that just means you have to put him in a spot in the batting order that will come up the most times without runners on.

[Peoriaman]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

Agreed. Murton should be getting the PT because he is doing well, just like Floyd got the PT deservedly when he was doing better than Murton in the first half of the season.

 

Murton's nobody on and runners on situation just keeps getting stranger and stranger.

 

Here are his career numbers:

Nobody on (464 AB's): .330/.385/.526

Runners on (321 AB's): .246/.335/.346

 

Now, it's still only 785 at-bats, and it still has plenty of time to turn around. 230 points is still an absolutely massive difference for that number of at-bats. Maybe he is too patient with runners on? (his walk rate and strikeout rate on his career are both up with runners on, while his BA and power are way down. That suggests too much patience in those situations).

 

Like I've said before, that still doesn't mean that you don't start Murton. Even if you believe these numbers won't turn around, that just means you have to put him in a spot in the batting order that will come up the most times without runners on.

 

 

 

well said Colt.

[Peoriaman]

I am all for patience, but many times the best pitch you get is the first one--the get me over fastball. Matt seems to tatoo this ball, but struggle when he goes deep in the count.y

[Keener98]

Based on RH splits, sure Murton would nec. be guaranteed a starting spot over Floyd, despite 11 points of OPS is a minimal amount.

 

Of course, for a stretch run, I'd feel more confident with the hot hand for that final run. To be honest, Floyd hasn't been as productive since the loss of his father and Murton has had a very good past two months.

 

For me...

 

A hitter with a clip of .310/.372/.563 just under the last two months will likely outproduce a hitter with .266/.348/.354 over that same time frame for the next 30 days. Especially when the previous split was .734 vs. .723.

 

Given how well Murton has done over the past two months, I'd start him till he cooled off. I'd say the same thing if it was Monroe or Floyd if they were hitting that well.

 

But some have agendas here and let bias towards players get in the way.

 

Agreed. Murton should be getting the PT because he is doing well, just like Floyd got the PT deservedly when he was doing better than Murton in the first half of the season.

 

Murton's nobody on and runners on situation just keeps getting stranger and stranger.

 

Here are his career numbers:

Nobody on (464 AB's): .330/.385/.526

Runners on (321 AB's): .246/.335/.346

 

Now, it's still only 785 at-bats, and it still has plenty of time to turn around. 230 points is still an absolutely massive difference for that number of at-bats. Maybe he is too patient with runners on? (his walk rate and strikeout rate on his career are both up with runners on, while his BA and power are way down. That suggests too much patience in those situations).

 

Like I've said before, that still doesn't mean that you don't start Murton. Even if you believe these numbers won't turn around, that just means you have to put him in a spot in the batting order that will come up the most times without runners on.

 

Good post CCP. For all the talk of all the Murton love supposedly here, I remember alot of people who agreed with sending him down to get right. And its quite obvious that he has gotten back to being 06 Matt Murton, and not the guy we seen at the beginning of the year. There really is no justification on not playing Murton right now. Floyd hasnt had a 2 month long stretch showing what Murton has shown, the entire season. For the final 30 days of the season, I think its obvious Murton gives us the best chance at winning, which is what everybody here wants.