Japanese Free Agents

[Geech]

Why do you say that?

[Geech]

He's a perfect fit for the Cubs.

L/R?

 

He bats lefty.

[Mephistopheles]

Why do you say that?

 

Because our centerfielders have combined for a .246 EqA. Fukudome's EqA translates in the .290-.310 range and he has elite defense to compliment it. In other words, if you don't have a top five or so CFer in the game, Fukudome's a good fit. I'm not so sure he doesn't belong in the top five either.

[Geech]

Yeah, but BP sees Pie approaching EQAs in the mid-upper .280s in the next couple of years, and he can't be much worse defensively if at all. Is that an unrealistic assesment of Pie? If not, is Fukudome really an intelligent use of resources with Pie being essentially ready to for a ML shot?

[Mephistopheles]

Fukudome's skill set has more saber upside and he's not near the risk pie is. its not as if we cant trade pie for full value. we can probably sell him for $1.50 on the dollar, but Jim's too stupid to do it.

 

What is it that Pie can do that Fukudome can't?

 

Steal bases. (though Fukudome can just doesn't)

 

What is it that Fukudome can do that Pie can't?

 

Control the strike zone.

 

Which is more important?

[Geech]

I guess I don't find that a very persuasive argument. Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have someone who controls the strike zone than someone who steals bases. That doesn't really answer the question, though.

 

What is Pie likely to do in the next six years and for what price compared to Fukudome?

 

Pie has a combination of power and speed that bode well for his career, even in spite of his poor strike zone. And he has a history of producing fairly well in the minors, too. In Pie, we have someone who's likely to be a good player at a below market rate. In Fukudome we have someone who might be a very good player, I don't quite share the optimism over his transition, for a free agent price. And he's on the wrong side of thirty.

 

Again, it's just not clear to me that this is the best use of resources.

[Mephistopheles]

Thats the wrong question. The question shouldnt be what Fukudome and Pie would do compared to each other. You have to decide what youre going to do with the resource not used in each.

 

For instance, if you grab Fukudome you can likely trade Pie and get a good player for 2-3 years who is under-priced (arby possibly etc) and fill another hole as well as CF. If you stick Pie in CF, the price saved thire and the money not grabbing Fukudome would go to shore up another position.

 

The question then comes down to whats the difference between Pie and Fukudome in runs per season. Then, whats the difference in value between the price of Fukudome spent on the open market this fall and then the trade value of Pie.

 

The question is NEVER just one player or another like this. Of course Fukudomes the better player. Theres no question there, but which is a better deal for the team? It depends on the market price for Pies services. Im not a Pie fan, so obviously i dont think hes worth much and the trade market for him appears to be pretty good, so Id deal him if I could get Fukudome.

[snoodmonger]

Why not keep Pie and Fukudome? Pie in RF, Fukudome in CF, Fonzie in LF. Edited August 26, 2007 by snoodmonger

[Mephistopheles]

Pie could still be above average in RF, but he's not even close to the value he would have been in center. In other words, we'd be better of dealing him to a team with a surplus of corner outfielders than keeping him in right.

[Geech]

Why not keep Pie and Fukudome? Pie in RF, Fukudome in CF, Fonzie in RF.

 

Pie and Fukudome are both most valuable as CFs. Unless we don't get good trade offers for Pie, I don't think it makes sense to stick him at a corner just to keep him.

[Geech]

*snip*

 

So, what's a realistic trade involving Pie?

 

It seems like the FA market is fairly thin outside of A-Rod, so this may actually provide more value to the team, but that's almost certainly going to require getting a very good player in return for Pie.

[Mephistopheles]

Dunn or Griffey. Who knows maybe we can try and pry away Miguel Cabrera....though we'll need a lot more than Pie. Manny's name is always out there. JD Drew could be, if you're interested. It doesn't really have to be a RFer. We do have Murton, Jones and perhaps Floyd next season. If we can find Pie for a reliable elite lefty out of the pen or package say Pie and Marshall for a starter, it could achieve the same effect. Honestly, I'd be content with Murton/Jones in right if I can't get an elite RFer like Dunn and trade Pie for a real catcher, a real SS, or a real SP (screw you Marquis)

[seanimal]

I'm not sure that I understand how trading Pie for Dunn or Griffey (that sounds pretty odd coming from you Meph, as Griff is pretty freaking old and doesn't project well beyond say, tomorrow) or an "elite lefty out of the pen" makes any sense whatsoever. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, I don't know, but I think Pie at league minimum trumps Fukudome plus whatever we're trading Pie for, especially if it's Dunn, in terms of dollar efficiency.

 

Let's imagine we trade Pie for Dunn. We only get his services for one year, then we have to pay to keep him. But because we traded Pie, we go out and get Fukudome, which costs whatever. So we can spend 35 large a year to have Dunn and Fukudome, sans Pie, or we can keep Pie and just get Dunn at the deadline and dump at the end of the season or compete within the market and sign Dunn next offseason anyway. I dunno. It seems foolish to go out and spend lavishly when many of the team's problems appear to be easy and cheap fixes.

 

That being said, a Soriano/Fukudome/Dunn outfield would be... incredible. For like two years. Then, you know, all sorts of bad.

[wvcbxl]

He's a perfect fit for the Cubs.

L/R?

 

He bats lefty.

 

I think he was asking for pitcher splits.

[Guest]

He's a perfect fit for the Cubs.

L/R?

 

He bats lefty.

 

I think he was asking for pitcher splits.

No, I just couldn't remember if he hit righty or lefty.

[WrigleyField 22]

The fact that Fukudome can play CF makes him even more appealing to me (I thought he was only a corner OF). Your Of could be Soriano, Pie, Fukudome. If Pie struggles, Murton is the 4OF and can step in quite effectively.

[Keener98]

The fact that Fukudome can play CF makes him even more appealing to me (I thought he was only a corner OF). Your Of could be Soriano, Pie, Fukudome. If Pie struggles, Murton is the 4OF and can step in quite effectively.

 

Ill be surprised if Murton is on this team come next year, especially if Hendry is still here.

[Radar3454]

fwiw - rotoworld has us signing

 

Tomohiro Nioka (Japan) - Nioka, who is wrapping up his ninth year with the Yomiuri Giants, could be the best shortstop available as a free agent this winter. The 31-year-old hit .289/.329/.472 with 25 homers last year and is batting .294/.340/.456 with 17 homers in 412 at-bats this season. Nioka's power probably wouldn't translate very well over to the majors and he's not a basestealer, but he would offer very good defense. The Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays all figure to take a look at him. Prediction: Cubs - two years, $10 million

 

and the giants signing

 

 

Kosuke Fukudome (Japan) - With Jermaine Dye off the market, Fukudome could be viewed as the top corner outfielder available this winter. The left-handed hitter has had three 1000 OPS seasons in Japan, the last coming when he hit .351/.438/.653 in 2006. He was at .294/.443/.520 with 13 homers in 269 at-bats this year before requiring surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow. He should be fully recovered within a couple of months, and it's doubtful that the injury will scare any teams off. Fukudome has plenty of experience in center, but he is likely to play right field in the majors. With his 20-25 homer power and on-base ability, he projects as an above average regular. The Red Sox are believed to like him, but they have no place to put him unless they move Manny Ramirez. The Giants could do a lot worse than signing him as their Barry Bonds replacement, and the Mariners should give serious thought to signing him and trading Richie Sexson. Prediction: Giants - three years, $36 million

 

 

here is the link for their FA predictions

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=28803

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why didn't Fukudome play in 2005?

 

?

 

He did and hit .328/.430/.590

 

Thanks. For some reason thebaseballcube doesn't have anything on him in 2005.