Last 38 games

[moorecg]

Looking at the projected rotation the rest of the way. Here are some things I noticed.

 

- Zambrano misses the potentially big 4 game series vs. the Cards.

-Lilly starts the makeup game vs. the Cards, then his next outing is the 2nd game of the 4 game series vs. the same Cardinals.

-Lilly is in line to start a potential Game 163

-Zambrano in line to start game 161, if playoffs clinched, I'd imagine he'd be held off til Game 1 of the NLDS. If needed, in 161, Z probably can't go til at least game 2 of the NLDS, depending on schedule.

 

If they're still as close as they are now doesn't Z just have to pitch in that series?

 

I'd be all for giving Gallagher a spot start against Pittsburgh the weekend before, which would put Marshall against the Cards on the make up day (they have trouble with lefties) and then would also allow Z to pitch in that 4 game series.

[jersey cubs fan]

Looking at the projected rotation the rest of the way. Here are some things I noticed.

 

- Zambrano misses the potentially big 4 game series vs. the Cards.

-Lilly starts the makeup game vs. the Cards, then his next outing is the 2nd game of the 4 game series vs. the same Cardinals.

-Lilly is in line to start a potential Game 163

-Zambrano in line to start game 161, if playoffs clinched, I'd imagine he'd be held off til Game 1 of the NLDS. If needed, in 161, Z probably can't go til at least game 2 of the NLDS, depending on schedule.

 

FYI, playoff schedule

 

NLDS A Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

ALDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS A Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

NLDS B Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

 

Game 161 is Sep. 29, leaving 3 off days before either NLDS game 1, which presumably leaves Z for game 2 in your scenario.

 

However, have the Cubs gone 6 weeks using the same rotation ever over this season? I know they've had mostly the same 5 guys, but it seems to me that things have changed around at least once a month. One thing to keep in mind is the likelihood of a Marshall and/or Lilly missed start, given each of their histories with high innings pitched. If you go through the games and keep Z on 4 days rest, I have him starting game 159 @ Florida, leaving him with plenty (or more than enough) rest to start game 1.

[SouthSideRyan]

Looking at the projected rotation the rest of the way. Here are some things I noticed.

 

- Zambrano misses the potentially big 4 game series vs. the Cards.

-Lilly starts the makeup game vs. the Cards, then his next outing is the 2nd game of the 4 game series vs. the same Cardinals.

-Lilly is in line to start a potential Game 163

-Zambrano in line to start game 161, if playoffs clinched, I'd imagine he'd be held off til Game 1 of the NLDS. If needed, in 161, Z probably can't go til at least game 2 of the NLDS, depending on schedule.

 

FYI, playoff schedule

 

NLDS A Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

ALDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS A Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

NLDS B Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

 

Game 161 is Sep. 29, leaving 3 off days before either NLDS game 1, which presumably leaves Z for game 2 in your scenario.

 

However, have the Cubs gone 6 weeks using the same rotation ever over this season? I know they've had mostly the same 5 guys, but it seems to me that things have changed around at least once a month. One thing to keep in mind is the likelihood of a Marshall and/or Lilly missed start, given each of their histories with high innings pitched. If you go through the games and keep Z on 4 days rest, I have him starting game 159 @ Florida, leaving him with plenty (or more than enough) rest to start game 1.

 

Also available for 2 or 3 innings of relief in 163.

[Soul]

I think either MIL or STL will be hot down the stretch, and we will need to play well above .500 to win this thing.

[rawaction]

Looking at the projected rotation the rest of the way. Here are some things I noticed.

 

- Zambrano misses the potentially big 4 game series vs. the Cards.

-Lilly starts the makeup game vs. the Cards, then his next outing is the 2nd game of the 4 game series vs. the same Cardinals.

-Lilly is in line to start a potential Game 163

-Zambrano in line to start game 161, if playoffs clinched, I'd imagine he'd be held off til Game 1 of the NLDS. If needed, in 161, Z probably can't go til at least game 2 of the NLDS, depending on schedule.

 

FYI, playoff schedule

 

NLDS A Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

ALDS B Game 1 Wed., Oct. 3 TBS

NLDS A Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

NLDS B Game 2 Thurs., Oct. 4 TBS

 

Game 161 is Sep. 29, leaving 3 off days before either NLDS game 1, which presumably leaves Z for game 2 in your scenario.

 

However, have the Cubs gone 6 weeks using the same rotation ever over this season? I know they've had mostly the same 5 guys, but it seems to me that things have changed around at least once a month. One thing to keep in mind is the likelihood of a Marshall and/or Lilly missed start, given each of their histories with high innings pitched. If you go through the games and keep Z on 4 days rest, I have him starting game 159 @ Florida, leaving him with plenty (or more than enough) rest to start game 1.

 

Thanks. I was hoping they didn't play Tues and Wednesday, that would have put Z back to game 3.

[Fred Hornkohl]

The question arose about the lineup being intact for how long..... the answer is from the end of the all star break (Fri 13 July) through last Saturday (18 Aug), the CUBS' rotation was Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Marshall without exception. (Game 88 through game 122, 35 consecutive games)

 

Prior to that..... the CUBS used the rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Marshall, Marquis, & Lilly from Sun 20 May (Game 42) through the all star break, Sun 08 July (Game 87) without exception. That's 46 consecutive games.

 

Not a whole lot of manipulation of the rotation going on.

 

The rest of the way looks like this. Of course, rainouts and September callups will totally rearrange these matchups, but here's what I have at the moment.....

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
127  Fri 08/24  @ Arizona       N    -    Marshall        Owings        
128  Sat 08/25  @ Arizona            -    Lilly           Petit         
129  Sun 08/26  @ Arizona            -    Marquis         Davis         
130  Tue 08/28    Milwaukee     N    -    Hill            Suppan        
131  Wed 08/29    Milwaukee     N    -    Zambrano        Vargas        
132  Thu 08/30    Milwaukee     N    -    Marshall        Gallardo      
133  Fri 08/31    Houston            -    Lilly           Jennings      
134  Sat 09/01    Houston            -    Marquis         Rodriguez     
135  Sun 09/02    Houston            -    Hill            Williams      
136  Mon 09/03    Los Angeles        -    Zambrano        Billingsley   
137  Tue 09/04    Los Angeles   N    -    Marshall        Penny         
138  Wed 09/05    Los Angeles   N    -    Lilly           Stults        
139  Thu 09/06    Los Angeles        -    Marquis         Lowe          
140  Fri 09/07  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Hill            Maholm        
141  Sat 09/08  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Zambrano        Snell         
142  Sun 09/09  @ Pittsburgh         -    Marshall        Morris        
143  Mon 09/10    St. Louis          -    Lilly           Pineiro       
144  Tue 09/11  @ Houston       N    -    Marquis         Albers        
145  Wed 09/12  @ Houston       N    -    Hill            Jennings      
146  Thu 09/13  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano        Rodriguez     
147  Fri 09/14  @ St. Louis     N    -    Marshall        Wells         
148  Sat 09/15  @ St. Louis          -    Lilly           Pineiro       
149  Sat 09/15  @ St. Louis     N    -    Marquis         Wainright     
150  Sun 09/16  @ St. Louis          -    Hill            Looper        
151  Mon 09/17    Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Livingston    
152  Tue 09/18    Cincinnati    N    -    Marshall        Arroyo        
153  Wed 09/19    Cincinnati    N    -    Lilly           Ramirez       
154  Fri 09/21    Pittsburgh         -    Marquis         Armas         
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
157  Tue 09/25  @ Florida       N    -    Marshall        Olsen         
158  Wed 09/26  @ Florida       N    -    Lilly           VandenHurk    
159  Thu 09/27  @ Florida            -    Marquis         Willis        
160  Fri 09/28  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Hill            Livingston    
161  Sat 09/29  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Arroyo        
162  Sun 09/30  @ Cincinnati         -    Marshall        Ramirez       

 

 

eta: That's 11 lefties we're facing in 36 games !!!

 

This particular stretch could kill us !! (5 lefties in 6 games)

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
157  Tue 09/25  @ Florida       N    -    Marshall        Olsen         
158  Wed 09/26  @ Florida       N    -    Lilly           VandenHurk    
159  Thu 09/27  @ Florida            -    Marquis         Willis        
160  Fri 09/28  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Hill            Livingston    

[UMFan83]

 

This particular stretch could kill us !! (5 lefties in 6 games)

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
157  Tue 09/25  @ Florida       N    -    Marshall        Olsen         
158  Wed 09/26  @ Florida       N    -    Lilly           VandenHurk    
159  Thu 09/27  @ Florida            -    Marquis         Willis        
160  Fri 09/28  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Hill            Livingston    

 

Not with Craig Monroe in Cubbie Blue!

[moorecg]

The question arose about the lineup being intact for how long..... the answer is from the end of the all star break (Fri 13 July) through last Saturday (18 Aug), the CUBS' rotation was Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Marshall without exception. (Game 88 through game 122, 35 consecutive games)

 

Prior to that..... the CUBS used the rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Marshall, Marquis, & Lilly from Sun 20 May (Game 42) through the all star break, Sun 08 July (Game 87) without exception. That's 46 consecutive games.

 

Not a whole lot of manipulation of the rotation going on.

 

The rest of the way looks like this. Of course, rainouts and September callups will totally rearrange these matchups, but here's what I have at the moment.....

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
127  Fri 08/24  @ Arizona       N    -    Marshall        Owings        
128  Sat 08/25  @ Arizona            -    Lilly           Petit         
129  Sun 08/26  @ Arizona            -    Marquis         Davis         
130  Tue 08/28    Milwaukee     N    -    Hill            Suppan        
131  Wed 08/29    Milwaukee     N    -    Zambrano        Vargas        
132  Thu 08/30    Milwaukee     N    -    Marshall        Gallardo      
133  Fri 08/31    Houston            -    Lilly           Jennings      
134  Sat 09/01    Houston            -    Marquis         Rodriguez     
135  Sun 09/02    Houston            -    Hill            Williams      
136  Mon 09/03    Los Angeles        -    Zambrano        Billingsley   
137  Tue 09/04    Los Angeles   N    -    Marshall        Penny         
138  Wed 09/05    Los Angeles   N    -    Lilly           Stults        
139  Thu 09/06    Los Angeles        -    Marquis         Lowe          
140  Fri 09/07  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Hill            Maholm        
141  Sat 09/08  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Zambrano        Snell         
142  Sun 09/09  @ Pittsburgh         -    Marshall        Morris        
143  Mon 09/10    St. Louis          -    Lilly           Pineiro       
144  Tue 09/11  @ Houston       N    -    Marquis         Albers        
145  Wed 09/12  @ Houston       N    -    Hill            Jennings      
146  Thu 09/13  @ Houston       N    -    Zambrano        Rodriguez     
147  Fri 09/14  @ St. Louis     N    -    Marshall        Wells         
148  Sat 09/15  @ St. Louis          -    Lilly           Pineiro       
149  Sat 09/15  @ St. Louis     N    -    Marquis         Wainright     
150  Sun 09/16  @ St. Louis          -    Hill            Looper        
151  Mon 09/17    Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Livingston    
152  Tue 09/18    Cincinnati    N    -    Marshall        Arroyo        
153  Wed 09/19    Cincinnati    N    -    Lilly           Ramirez       
154  Fri 09/21    Pittsburgh         -    Marquis         Armas         
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
157  Tue 09/25  @ Florida       N    -    Marshall        Olsen         
158  Wed 09/26  @ Florida       N    -    Lilly           VandenHurk    
159  Thu 09/27  @ Florida            -    Marquis         Willis        
160  Fri 09/28  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Hill            Livingston    
161  Sat 09/29  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Zambrano        Arroyo        
162  Sun 09/30  @ Cincinnati         -    Marshall        Ramirez       

 

 

eta: That's 11 lefties we're facing in 36 games !!!

 

This particular stretch could kill us !! (5 lefties in 6 games)

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
157  Tue 09/25  @ Florida       N    -    Marshall        Olsen         
158  Wed 09/26  @ Florida       N    -    Lilly           VandenHurk    
159  Thu 09/27  @ Florida            -    Marquis         Willis        
160  Fri 09/28  @ Cincinnati    N    -    Hill            Livingston    

 

You've got gennings in there twice for Houston...he's having season ending surgery

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

You've got gennings in there twice for Houston...he's having season ending surgery

 

I just took what ESPN showed and extrapolated it out to the end of the season. They still seem to think that Jennings is going to pitch tomorrow against the Pirates, so I went with it.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Fred Hornkohl

[wekse]

i gotta believe that z will be moved around to get at least one more crack at the cards this year.

[moorecg]

 

You've got gennings in there twice for Houston...he's having season ending surgery

 

I just took what ESPN showed and extrapolated it out to the end of the season. They still seem to think that Jennings is going to pitch tomorrow against the Pirates, so I went with it.

 

Yeah, not criticizing...just pointing it out....I heard on XM and I think its even on the ESPN page that he's having season ending surgery soon....still...two Jason Jennings starts probably doesn't have too much effect on the season...

 

 

Also, as to the post above...I'd guess Z has to start against STL too if that series matters as much as we think it will....I'd guess maybe Gallagher would get a spot start to bump the rotation so leads off that series.

[Ender]

I think the Cubs will win something like 17-21 of the games, expecting much more is being overly optimistic. They are a .500ish team which had a lot of bad luck early in the year and even more good luck late in the year.

 

I know its an 'easy schedule', but its been an easy schedule all year.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's another way to look at the remaining 36 games.........

 

Opponent     record     Pct   remain   E(wins)
Arizona         1-2   0.333        3        1
Milwaukee       7-5   0.583        3        2
Houston         4-5   0.444        6        3
Los Angeles     1-2   0.333        4        1
Pittsburgh      4-5   0.444        6        3
St. Louis       7-4   0.636        5        3
Cincinnati      5-7   0.417        6        3
Florida         0-3   0.000        3        0

                    totals       36       16

 

Kind of depressing, no?

[moorecg]

Here's another way to look at the remaining 36 games.........

 

Opponent     record     Pct   remain   E(wins)
Arizona         1-2   0.333        3        1
Milwaukee       7-5   0.583        3        2
Houston         4-5   0.444        6        3
Los Angeles     1-2   0.333        4        1
Pittsburgh      4-5   0.444        6        3
St. Louis       7-4   0.636        5        3
Cincinnati      5-7   0.417        6        3
Florida         0-3   0.000        3        0

                    totals       36       16

 

Kind of depressing, no?

 

If the only series we win in the next month and a half are against STL and MIL we're screwed....

 

I think you're a little pesimistic on the ARZ series...maybe a little on the Houston Series...quite a bit on pittsburgh and maybe a little on Cincy and quite a bit on FLA

 

Add just one more win to each of those series and we win 20 games out of the next 36...that puts us at 85 wins...right at where the mark probably needs to be.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the Cubs will win something like 17-21 of the games, expecting much more is being overly optimistic. They are a .500ish team which had a lot of bad luck early in the year and even more good luck late in the year.

 

I know its an 'easy schedule', but its been an easy schedule all year.

 

Not being accusatory, just genuinely interested in your opinion what do you guess for Milwaukee and St. Louis?

[Ender]

Talent wise the Brewers are also a .500ish team, Cardinals are a sub .500 team talent wise but with the most experience. Brewers are the youngest of the bunch so will probably have the most pressure related struggles. I think the division really comes down to which team gets hot but my predicition is Cubs take it by a game or two unless the Brewers win that series in Chicago. I think all the teams are close enough overall that pretty much anyone could win it.

 

I don't think any of the teams will win much more than 21-23 game of the last 38 though and my honest prediction for each of them would be 21 or lower and one will beat the spread.