2007 Cubs Pick Discussion

[1908]

Kevin Goldstein (4:15:41 PM PST): at #97 in the third round, the Cubs took Tony Thomas, the Florida State second baseman who put up huge numbers without huge tools. He's a favorite of the stat-heavy folks, so it's a surprise to see him end up in Chicago.

[Outshined_One]

Sounds like a guy who should move quickly through the system.

 

He also sounds vaguely like Todd Walker.

[Guest]

Sounds like a guy who should move quickly through the system.

 

He also sounds vaguely like Todd Walker.

Todd Walker only dreams of being that fast. :)

[RichHillIsABeast]

Interesting trend so far:

 

three hitters selected. Vitters is rated as having the second best plate discipline in the draft amongst high school hitters. Both college hitters selected had outstanding OBP's and IsoD's.

 

could the Cubs finally be learning the value of picking people with plate discipline?

 

I find it noteworthy that Colvin wasn't heralded for his plate discipline.

 

Maybe Lou is having a rather large impact on player procurement.

[Outshined_One]

Sounds like a guy who should move quickly through the system.

 

He also sounds vaguely like Todd Walker.

Todd Walker only dreams of being that fast. :)

 

I focused on coolhandluke's report rather than Ping's. :D

[Mephistopheles]

i still would have liked the cubs to walk out with one high upside HS pitcher. theyve had a lot of good ones for slot price available.

[Guest]

i still would have liked the cubs to walk out with one high upside HS pitcher. theyve had a lot of good ones for slot price available.

BPA seems to have been more like BHA so far.

[Outshined_One]

They haven't had their typical Virginia pick yet. I figure there'll be at least one, considering it's a bit of a tradition thanks to their uber-area scout (Bill Swoope, I believe?).

[Mephistopheles]

i still would have liked the cubs to walk out with one high upside HS pitcher. theyve had a lot of good ones for slot price available.

BPA seems to have been more like BHA so far.

maybe well nab one next. there are still some there. casey crosby, cody scarpetta from illinois alone.

 

 

grimms good from Va

[Guest]

Nice hitter there in round 3. Looking at some rankings, sounds like he was a 3rd rounder. I want a high ceiling pitcher too. :(

[Guest]

Goonsey isn't bashing the picks, though. He's noticing a potential pattern in Wilkin's draft philosphy.

 

And even those who are bashing the pick have plenty cause for concern. The Cubs don't do well developing players (or, as Bruce said, development is less important than ceiling/talent), so why not take the guys with the highest ceiling possible instead of "safe" picks?

First - I wasn't singling out goony with my comment.

 

Second - if you're saying that our development org stinks, taking the high risk/reward players that need a lot of development is exactly the wrong strategy to take.

 

I know you didn't single him out specifically, but his thought in Wilken's drafts so far I thought was interesting.

 

I don't know that all high ceiling guys are high risk/reward types, but I'm not exactly an expert on baseball's draft. However, wouldn't high ceiling guys also presumably have higher floors than a "safe" pick would?

I think Samardzija is a very high ceiling guy -- but he's got to add a change and more consistency with his slider. Which means he's not tremendously likely to reach that high ceiling. But what I saw in spring training is a guy who can be a darned fine reliever in a very short timeframe.

 

I also disagree with the assessment on Colvin's ceiling. His performance so far hasn't been thrilling to anyone, but he's moving fairly fast and is holding his own -- hence Goony's take on him being a pretty "safe" pick. But I think he's still filling out his frame and has a slight chance to be a guy who blossoms into an all-star level player. He's a guy that got significantly better later on in college. He's also playing better this year than last year even though he skipped a level.

 

Vitters was rated by many as the best bat in the draft for a reason - he's got the potential be be very good at every phase of hitting. If that's not a high ceiling, I don't know what is.

 

As for your last question - Let me introduce you to Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey. Two very high ceiling hitters with abysmal floors. That Wilken has been able to identify some hitters with decent floors and still plenty of upside should be commended.

 

Beyond Colvin, Samardzija and Vitters, I have to say Andersen, Huseby and Rundle aren't guys who are likely to reach the bigs but not be special.

[Mephistopheles]

Cubs waste pick on Darwin Barney

[Mephistopheles]

I like mine better, obviously

 

Rd No Player Pos School

1 3 Jason Heyward OF Henry County HS

1S 48 Michael Burgess OF Hillsburough HS

3 97 Will Middlebrooks 3B/RHP Liberty-Elyau HS

4 127 Chris Carpenter RHP Kent State

[Guest]

The Beavers will lose two more this spring, as three-year starters Canham and Darwin Barney figure to sign. Barney hasn't quite been himself this spring, falling out of consensus top 200 consideration due to defensive lapses and a tendency to swing for the fences at the plate. He profiles as a future utility player as he lacks the power or offensive consistency to be an everyday middle infielder. His savvy has overcome his modest physical tools in the past; his best tool is his speed, as he's a 6.7-second runner.

[UK1679666180]

Barney is a scappy little player who was a steadying influence at shortstop for Oregon State in 2006 as it made its improbable run to a College World Series title. He has continued to be the glue in the middle infield this year for the Beavers, playing with energy, confidence and flair. He is a very fluid, instinctive player in the field with an uncanny ability to anticipate plays. He has first-step quickness with plenty of arm strength when he needs it. None of his other tools have game-changing ability, but all play with the exception of power. He is a marginal hitter, at best, because he doesn’t put the ball in play with consistent, hard contact, but he has a knack for hitting in the clutch. He was hitting just .293 this year as the Beavers entered regional competition, but had 45 RBIs in 55 games. His raw speed is also just average, but he uses it well as he has excellent instincts on the basepaths. If a team believes Barney can play shortstop on an everyday basis in the big leagues, he could go as high as the second or third round. But most clubs have cast him as a utility player, capable of playing second base and center field in addition to shortstop.

[Guest]

To compare him with another college shortstop, Brian Friday, Barney might have less bat, but more glove. He's very dependable at a premium position, but his bat may mean he's a defensive-minded utility player in the big leagues. He compares favorably with Blake Davis, who was a fourth-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This seems like a waste.

[Guest]

This seems like a waste.

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2007/02/14/ehqdXvEc.jpg

[Prior4CyYoung]

well Lou got a guy who " Can catch the ball "

[Mephistopheles]

we got two utility infielders, one without the potential to play short. we're an awesome organization

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's like drafting Joe Simokaitis all over again, except 6 rounds earlier.

[1908]

This seems like a waste.

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/2007/02/14/ehqdXvEc.jpg

At last, a player I can root for at this years CWS, presuming OSU knocks off Michigan in the Super 8's, of course.

[Guest]

It's like drafting Joe Simokaitis all over again, except 6 rounds earlier.

 

D. Barney sure will be easier to type in the daily minor league boxes, though.

[Rob]

we got two utility infielders, one without the potential to play short. we're an awesome organization

 

Something tells me we'll get a middle reliever with walk issues next.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Seems a little premature to typecast Thomas as a utility infielder.