Soriano,so far...

[seanimal]

They bid on an upgrade. It cost a lot. They don't need him to be great, they need him to perform at his career average, which he isn't doing yet.

 

Are you kidding me? This is absurd. He's right in-line with his career average. They need him to be as good as he was in his career year.

 

If his slugging being 38 points below his career average is 'in-line' than yes, you're right. If not, my statement is not quite as absurd as you wish it to be.

[jersey cubs fan]

They bid on an upgrade. It cost a lot. They don't need him to be great, they need him to perform at his career average, which he isn't doing yet.

 

Are you kidding me? This is absurd. He's right in-line with his career average. They need him to be as good as he was in his career year.

 

If his slugging being 38 points below his career average is 'in-line' than yes, you're right. If not, my statement is not quite as absurd as you wish it to be.

 

2007 - .288/.335/.471 110 OPS+

career - .280/.326/.509 115 OPS+

 

He's right in line with his career norms.

 

Pretending this is some abnormal slump is silly. This is Soriano. Pretending his salary doesn't matter is silly. Pretending 164 PA is too early to start worrying about his lack of production is silly.

 

Soriano is going to be the Cubs highest paid player, or one of the two or three highest paid players, for the foreseeable future. They need him to put up his very best numbers. He's already past his prime, so there's little hope for upside. They need him putting up those 900+ OPS, 130 OPS+ type seasons early in his contract, because there's very little chance of him doing so in the middle to end of that deal.

 

I don't get why any Cubs fan would just scoff at the concerns about his slow start. This is not ARod. This is not Beltran. This is not somebody with a great track record. He's been excellent for only brief stretches in his career, and the Cubs need him to be excellent for the next 4 years.

[Ender]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I wouldn't suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points. Edited May 22, 2007 by Ender

[CubColtPacer]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I would suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

That's my guess as well. The biggest thing for Soriano right now is that his ground ball percentage is way up and his fly ball percentage is way down. If he starts hitting his usual percentage of fly balls during the summer with the Wrigley wind, he'll hit a pretty good amount of home runs, and that will increase his OPS even if his average slips a little bit.

[Tracer Bullet]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I would suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

This is a valid point - numbers at Wrigley certainly seem to change when the weather warms up and the wind turns. But I generally agree w/ jersey/gooney. I never liked the Soriano deal, but I was hoping we'd at least get a few good/great seasons out of him before it became a nightmare. If his numbers don't bounce back significantly in the near future, this is going to be an 8-year albatross, rather than a 4-5 year one.

[Ender]

Oh I agree with that, the deal was just terrible, too long and too much money. Most of the deals made this winter were pretty bad though so maybe I just haven't adjusted to the market yet. I mean Pierre is one of the worst full time OF's in the game in my opinion and he got a huge contract too.

[rynefan]

I can't decide. Up and down. His numbers are OK, but he's just not consistent. It is nice to know that he does have loads of potential and could really put up some pretty fantastic numbers. At least he's got a possibility of greatness.

[seanimal]

They bid on an upgrade. It cost a lot. They don't need him to be great, they need him to perform at his career average, which he isn't doing yet.

 

Are you kidding me? This is absurd. He's right in-line with his career average. They need him to be as good as he was in his career year.

 

If his slugging being 38 points below his career average is 'in-line' than yes, you're right. If not, my statement is not quite as absurd as you wish it to be.

 

2007 - .288/.335/.471 110 OPS+

career - .280/.326/.509 115 OPS+

 

He's right in line with his career norms.

 

I was attempting to have a discussion concerning his OBP and SLG and the implications of his lack of the latter on his production of important numbers, but you seem more concerned with participating in an argument that doesn't exist by putting things in my mouth. Like..

 

Pretending this is some abnormal slump is silly.

 

Cool. Never said that.

 

Pretending 164 PA is too early to start worrying about his lack of production is silly.

 

or that. I am concerned. What I said was I'll make a judgment when the year is over, or close to it.

 

What is silly is judging a player based on a very limited amount of AB's coming off a career year in a low pressure situation, who has just signed a huge contract with an organization with huge expectations, who is slightly injured, and expecting him to put up career numbers. But that's just me.

 

Pretending his salary doesn't matter is silly.

 

Didn't say that exactly, but I'm not surprised you would take it there. The fact of the matter is that yes, his contract is too much money over too many years, however, for an organization that can afford to spend money at the rate that the Red Sox do, there are bigger worries. Unless something catastrophic happens, I don't foresee this contract impeding the ownership's ability to go out and get marquee free agents, considering the amount of revenue they pull in.

 

I don't get why any Cubs fan would just scoff at the concerns about his slow start.

 

Obviously.

 

This is not ARod.

 

NO!

 

This is not Beltran.

 

WAY!

 

This is not somebody with a great track record. He's been excellent for only brief stretches in his career, and the Cubs need him to be excellent for the next 4 years.

 

"Peanut butter sandwiches don't taste that great. Sometimes they taste great. I need this peanut butter sandwich to blow my mind."

[jersey cubs fan]

You nonsensical ramblings aren't helpful.

[seanimal]

Shucks

[frostwyrm]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I wouldn't suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

Wind schmind. What was his excuse in 2004 and 2005? OPS barely over .800 for 2 years in one of the best hitters' parks, and he was on the young side of 30 then too.

[jersey cubs fan]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I wouldn't suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

Wind schmind. What was his excuse in 2004 and 2005? OPS barely over .800 for 2 years in one of the best hitters' parks, and he was on the young side of 30 then too.

 

Speaking of turning things around, while his May looks good, he's got a 462 OPS in the past week. He hasn't done much since the day before Mother's Day.

[frostwyrm]

They need him putting up those 900+ OPS, 130 OPS+ type seasons early in his contract, because there's very little chance of him doing so in the middle to end of that deal.

 

That's how I see it too. His contract is a colossal blunder if we don't get superstar production NOW, particularly if he's going to stay at LF for the whole duration.

[frostwyrm]

Soriano, like many of the best hitters, is a streak hitter. When he gets hot, watch out. When he's cold, you wait for the next hot streak. There are very few top hitters that aren't streaky.

 

There are very few "top hitters" as unproductive as Soriano. Most top hitters maintain solid numbers and get their great numbers out of streaks. The problem with Soriano is he's not a top hitter. He needs his hot streaks just to keep his numbers out of the trash bin.

 

It all depends on what you call a "top" hitter. You get past Bonds, Pujols, Cabrera, and a few others and the most of therest of them are really streaky. We are in an era of guys who hit 40 HRs and strike out 180 times and are considered "top" hitters.

 

 

 

and soriano's probably not going to hit 40 homers.

 

Yeah, I think not hitting a single homer in April pretty much tanked any chance at 40 homers.

 

He's also sitting at 9 walks, so his chance at equaling last year's 67 walks is gone too.

 

Soriano must have read my post. He walked 3 times last night, so now at 12 on the season. Still don't think he'll get back to 67.

[USSoccer]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I wouldn't suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

Wind schmind. What was his excuse in 2004 and 2005? OPS barely over .800 for 2 years in one of the best hitters' parks, and he was on the young side of 30 then too.

 

Aramis hasn't had any issues with the wind so far.

[cubweiser03]

The fact he turned it around in May suggests that the cold April with the wind blowing in at Wrigley probably had a lot to do with his slump. Throw in the injury and I would suggest that he's reverting back to career averages. Last year was probably his career year so not suggesting he'll repeat it but when that wind starts to blow out at Wrigley I'm guessing his OPS jumps at least .50 points.

 

That's my guess as well. The biggest thing for Soriano right now is that his ground ball percentage is way up and his fly ball percentage is way down. If he starts hitting his usual percentage of fly balls during the summer with the Wrigley wind, he'll hit a pretty good amount of home runs, and that will increase his OPS even if his average slips a little bit.

 

His GB/FB ratio this year so far is very abnormal for him. You have to go back to 2001 to see a compairable ratio. That year he hit 18 HR's. If he had the same GB/FB ratio as the last 5 years id be much more worried. Gotta start to hit more FB's, thats for sure.

 

Since May 10 he has done a much better job at being more selective and has drawn more walks. His OBP isnt as dependant on his averag as it was then. Trend or Streak????

 

Soriano is a lot like the pre-patient Sammy. He gets himself out by swinging at 2 strikes pitches out of the zone. IF he can lay off these 'bad' pitches better (he appears to be doing a little better) his OBP will rise quite a bit. Ive been very impressed by his ability to foul off pitches and stay alive in the count so I can see him raising his ISOD 30 points just by not swinging at the curves/sliders out of the zone late in the count. Whether he gets better at pitch recognition obviously remains to be seen.

[Yestheydo]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but does anyone happen to know what Soriano's numbers are when he's both leading off and playing left field as opposed to when he isn't? It seems to me he started hitting as soon as they put him in left, then slowed down as soon as they moved him in the lineup. Now his first game back at leadoff, he walks three times. He had a career year playing LF and leading off last year. If they just leave him where he is, I bet he'll be just fine. That seems to be what Piniella is thinking, too.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but does anyone happen to know what Soriano's numbers are when he's both leading off and playing left field as opposed to when he isn't? It seems to me he started hitting as soon as they put him in left, then slowed down as soon as they moved him in the lineup. Now his first game back at leadoff, he walks three times. He had a career year playing LF and leading off last year. If they just leave him where he is, I bet he'll be just fine. That seems to be what Piniella is thinking, too.

 

I bet it is what he is thinking-this year's sample size is small enough still to not know if this stat is an aberration or not (there are still way too many variables in play for now)-here is the stat though:

 

Soriano in LF, batting 1st-.333/.395/.564

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but does anyone happen to know what Soriano's numbers are when he's both leading off and playing left field as opposed to when he isn't? It seems to me he started hitting as soon as they put him in left, then slowed down as soon as they moved him in the lineup. Now his first game back at leadoff, he walks three times. He had a career year playing LF and leading off last year. If they just leave him where he is, I bet he'll be just fine. That seems to be what Piniella is thinking, too.

 

I bet it is what he is thinking-this year's sample size is small enough still to not know if this stat is an aberration or not (there are still way too many variables in play for now)-here is the stat though:

 

Soriano in LF, batting 1st-.333/.395/.564

 

04/23 - 05/22          AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Soriano batting 1st    77   14   26    6    0    4   44    7    7   20  0.338  0.400  0.571  0.971  0.415

 

Or, for comparison's sake, these 4 breakdowns are 1) CF & leadoff, 2) LF & leadoff, 3) LF batting 3rd, and 4) LF & leading off again.

 

Soriano            AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
04/02 - 04/16      49    6   12    6    0    0   18    1    2   11  0.245  0.288  0.367  0.656  0.316
04/23 - 05/13      75   13   26    6    0    4   44    7    4   18  0.347  0.388  0.587  0.974  0.415
05/14 - 05/20      28    5    5    1    1    0    8    3    3    6  0.179  0.258  0.286  0.544  0.227
05/22               2    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    3    2  0.000  0.600  0.000  0.600  0.000

04/02 - 05/22     155   25   44   14    1    4   72   11   12   37  0.284  0.343  0.465  0.808  0.351

[seanimal]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but does anyone happen to know what Soriano's numbers are when he's both leading off and playing left field as opposed to when he isn't? It seems to me he started hitting as soon as they put him in left, then slowed down as soon as they moved him in the lineup. Now his first game back at leadoff, he walks three times. He had a career year playing LF and leading off last year. If they just leave him where he is, I bet he'll be just fine. That seems to be what Piniella is thinking, too.

 

Every time Sori was up to bat yesterday my friend's dad and I would talk about how he swings at everything, then he walked three times. What an idiot base-clogger.

[Soul]

He might not really do anything until next year, just like DLee didn't.

[cubbieblue12]

He's not hitting for power, which has frustrated me tremendously. He's on pace for about 16 homers, thirty less than last year. He doesn't deserve $10 Mil a year, let alone $18 Mil.

[Guest]

He's not hitting for power, which has frustrated me tremendously. He's on pace for about 16 homers, thirty less than last year. He doesn't deserve $10 Mil a year, let alone $18 Mil.

 

He has hit quite a few "almosts" though. The power will come around eventually, I'm not too worried about. I'm glad he's out of the leadoff spot though, I think that will help boost his numbers and help him out with a little more protection.

[Fred Hornkohl]

He's not hitting for power, which has frustrated me tremendously. He's on pace for about 16 homers, thirty less than last year. He doesn't deserve $10 Mil a year, let alone $18 Mil.

 

He has hit quite a few "almosts" though. The power will come around eventually, I'm not too worried about. I'm glad he's out of the leadoff spot though, I think that will help boost his numbers and help him out with a little more protection.

 

Don't look now, but it appears he's back there.

[BigSlick]

He might not really do anything until next year, just like DLee didn't.

 

.278/.356/.504 is not nothing. I'd be mildly satisfied if Soriano did that.

 

edit: Looking up his stats on the year, his OBP isn't much lower, but his slugging is about 50 points less. I'd like to see him actually hit for some power.

 

I'd also love it if he'd stop swinging at balls about a yard away off the plate.

Edited May 24, 2007 by BigSlick