Carlos "The Ace" Zambrano

[hitamprun]

His trends for the last 1.5 to 2 years is a little disturbing. His overall effectiveness has decreased steadily over that time, and his penchant to not deliver in April and May (when the team is still in the race) is very bothersome.

 

IMO, the league has figured out that you need to be patient with him, and make him throw strikes. Z has got to lead the world in starting out guys with 2-0 and 3-1 counts, and no matter how good your stuff is, you can't be effective at this level doing that. He is walking more guys because teams are being more patient, and giving up more homers because guys are sitting on his fastball on 2-0 and 3-1 counts.

 

Look at his stats after 1/4 of the season, compared to the top 50 starters:

 

47th in ERA

Given up the most homers of all 50

Given up the third most walks

Ranked 48th in WHIP

 

Very ugly folks.

[Jon]

1) Can we drop the whole "headcase" thing already? Why would it all of a sudden be what's causing his ineffectiveness when he's undoubtedly more calm on the mound now than ever before in his career?

 

2) Why does it matter if he's the "ace?" If the "ace" label was arbitrarily given to someone else, would it make any difference?

 

3) He's getting hurt because of a decrease in strikeouts, a big jump in BAA, and a HUGE increase in SLG% against (or as Fox, who is brand new to the stat, calls it, "SLUG"). It's not really the walks that are the difference, surprisingly. His GB% isn't too bad and his LD% is pretty low.

 

4) I'd like to hear Rothschild back-track on his previous statements about Zambrano's arm slot. But regardless, it's going to take a while to see what's going on. Even as the article suggested, there isn't a huge amount of evidence in the change in his previously inconsistent mechanics to signal shoulder soreness.

[Chocolate Milk]

I'm trying to think of another person who had been great, then had a inexplicable bad year. I thought of Peavy. Did Peavy have any injury problems last year? Was he just unlucky? I'm not really sure what happened with him last year, does anyone know?

 

Just wanted to throw it out there.

[hitamprun]

3) He's getting hurt because of a decrease in strikeouts, a big jump in BAA, and a HUGE increase in SLG% against (or as Fox, who is brand new to the stat, calls it, "SLUG"). It's not really the walks that are the difference, surprisingly. His GB% isn't too bad and his LD% is pretty low.

 

 

 

He is getting hurt because teams are making him throw strikes, it's that simple. I don't care who you are, if you are starting the majority of hitters 1-0, 2-0 and 3-1, you are going to get lit up.

 

At this stage of his career, you would hope his command would be getting better, but it appears to have gone backwards since the end of 05. I don't know what the problem is, but I would think long and hard before commiting 5 years and 15+ mil per year to a guy trending downhill for over a year.

[imb]

I'm trying to think of another person who had been great, then had a inexplicable bad year. I thought of Peavy. Did Peavy have any injury problems last year? Was he just unlucky? I'm not really sure what happened with him last year, does anyone know?

 

Just wanted to throw it out there.

 

If I remember right, Peavy was just really, really unlucky.

 

I think he gave up a few more home runs than usual, and some of them probably came with men on base, because his peripherals were still really good.

[Soriano12]

I'm hoping Z rebounds because he is key for us trading for Phil Hughes.

[imb]

I'm hoping Z rebounds because he is key for us trading for Phil Hughes.

 

Is there another Phil Hughes that I'm not aware of? Because the Yankees wouldn't trade theirs for 10 Carlos Zambranos.

[Soriano12]

I'm hoping Z rebounds because he is key for us trading for Phil Hughes.

 

Is there another Phil Hughes that I'm not aware of? Because the Yankees wouldn't trade theirs for 10 Carlos Zambranos.

 

There is a Phillip Hughes, and a Phil Hughes. Same pitcher, or two different ones...you decide.

[Chocolate Milk]

I'm trying to think of another person who had been great, then had a inexplicable bad year. I thought of Peavy. Did Peavy have any injury problems last year? Was he just unlucky? I'm not really sure what happened with him last year, does anyone know?

 

Just wanted to throw it out there.

 

If I remember right, Peavy was just really, really unlucky.

 

I think he gave up a few more home runs than usual, and some of them probably came with men on base, because his peripherals were still really good.

 

If that's the case, then it probably isn't a really useful comparison.

[HoopsCubs]

Phil Rogers has written an article about Zambrano in today's Chicago Tribune. I think registration is required, but see link below. The article is called "Big Z's exit not a bad strategy..."

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070520rogers,1,2268710.column?coll=cs-columnists

 

Some of Phil's observations:

 

"... it might turn out to be a good thing that they didn't finish that 5-year contract..."

 

"... because Zambrano hasn't come up big in these situations, there isn't the parallel to the Greg Maddux situation in 1992 that some suggest."

 

"Zambrano would bring a huge return if the Cubs made him available at the July 31 deadline."

 

 

It's beginning to feel to me that Z is playing his last year in Cubbie blue, and that $12.5M will be used for somebody else.

 

Hoops

[Soul]

Phil Rogers has written an article about Zambrano in today's Chicago Tribune. I think registration is required, but see link below. The article is called "Big Z's exit not a bad strategy..."

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070520rogers,1,2268710.column?coll=cs-columnists

 

Some of Phil's observations:

 

"... it might turn out to be a good thing that they didn't finish that 5-year contract..."

 

"... because Zambrano hasn't come up big in these situations, there isn't the parallel to the Greg Maddux situation in 1992 that some suggest."

 

"Zambrano would bring a huge return if the Cubs made him available at the July 31 deadline."

 

 

It's beginning to feel to me that Z is playing his last year in Cubbie blue, and that $12.5M will be used for somebody else.

 

Hoops

 

Yes, I think we're rapidly approaching the point of inevitability with Z leaving the Cubs. Maybe we're all wrong, I don't know.

[HoopsCubs]

Yes, I think we're rapidly approaching the point of inevitability with Z leaving the Cubs. Maybe we're all wrong, I don't know.

 

From Phil's point of view, the rumor of moving Dempster to the rotation now (assuming he shows some competency) would assure that the Cubs have 4 starters under control in 2008: Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Dempster. The 5th will be some combination of Samardzija, Marshall, Prior or Veal.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

[TruffleShuffle]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

 

I like how everyone and their mother knows what Zambrano is doing wrong (throwing more sidearm, flattening out his pitches) but it hasn't been fixed yet. I'm not sure if Rothschild knows what's wrong and Zambrano hasn't been able to correct it, or if Rothschild is just a moron.

[Guest]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

 

I like how everyone and their mother knows what Zambrano is doing wrong (throwing more sidearm, flattening out his pitches) but it hasn't been fixed yet. I'm not sure if Rothschild knows what's wrong and Zambrano hasn't been able to correct it, or if Rothschild is just a moron.

 

Based on what Carrie had said, it's the former. Rothschild has talked to Z about what he needs to correct and he works on it in the side sessions but his mechanics revert back in games.

[Brendan]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

 

it's not

[Brendan]

the goat riders (via deadspin) breakdown z's 07 performance. their verdict: he's likely injured

[TruffleShuffle]

the goat riders (via deadspin) breakdown z's 07 performance. their verdict: he's likely injured

 

I thought the vast majority of his fastballs were above 90 in that game, not around 88. And I don't think he ever threw 96 regularly, though he'd touch 96 sometimes.

[Jon]

Yeah, there's nothing really wrong with his velocity.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, there's nothing really wrong with his velocity.

 

Completely disagree. He's regularly way below his past normal velocity, and only occasionally dials it up to that level. There is definitely something wrong with it.

[Buford T Justice]

"The Ace" needs to keep his mind off his pay day and pitch like he deserves a big pay day.

[USSoccer]

Yeah, there's nothing really wrong with his velocity.

 

I think he's down 2 or 3 mph from a couple years ago. I remember him hitting 99 in the NLCS. He was always more effective working in the 94mph range, but even when he really lets one fly it's not as hard as it had been.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

 

I like how everyone and their mother knows what Zambrano is doing wrong (throwing more sidearm, flattening out his pitches) but it hasn't been fixed yet. I'm not sure if Rothschild knows what's wrong and Zambrano hasn't been able to correct it, or if Rothschild is just a moron.

 

 

I think Rothschild is getting thrown under a bus here. Z is going to do what Z wants to do and if he's hurt it makes sense he'll continue using the same arm slot no matter what his pitching coach says. Rothschild's comments probably had more to do with the fact he didn't want to add to the controversy.

[Soul]

To add a bit of fuel to the fire, Steve Phillips at ESPN (who I think talks a lot without saying much of anything, but maybe that's just me) posted this in his Insider chat today-

 

Paul (Wilmette, IL): What do you think about the Carlos Zambrano situation? He hasn't pitched like a $17 million dollar a year player and the Cubs needed the Sunday game against the Sox before they go on the road. I would rather use the money on everyday players.

 

Steve Phillips: Every championship team has an ace, and Zambrano has been an ace. He is not pitching as well this year, but I think it's mental and mechanical. We broke down his delivery on BB Tonight a few weeks back, where we showed how he's leaping toward home plate in his delivery and opening up too soon, causing him to drop his arm slot and get under his fastball and slider. Everything seems to be flattening out, and he's had difficulty commanding his pitches and putting the ball where he wants to. A lot of times, when a pitcher leaps toward home plate, it's because he is emotional, trying too hard, and jumping at the hitter. When Zambrano's contact got pulled off the table, I think it affected the emotional righthander, and he has been over-trying instead of just pitching. Someone is gonna give him a lot of money this winter, and I believe he'll return to ace form.

 

it's not

 

It's such a safe copout to just say "Z is great, he's going to be rich and continue to be great." Then if Z bombs out or needs arm surgery you can just act all shocked and say "it's such a shame, but I think he'll return to form and be great!"

 

I mean come on. The guy is struggling mightily out there. Thanks for the lack of insight, Steve, but most Cub fans are trying to debate what the reasons might be that Zambrano is not great at the moment, not kiss his butt and avoid the debate by saying he's going to be great again someday. His comments about arm angle are old, and not likely to explain everything given he's had months to fix it now with no success.

 

That's just ridiculous non-substantial time-filler. Phillips does this alot. I've noticed Kennedy does, too, for Fox.

[David]

Yeah, there's nothing really wrong with his velocity.

 

I think he's down 2 or 3 mph from a couple years ago. I remember him hitting 99 in the NLCS. He was always more effective working in the 94mph range, but even when he really lets one fly it's not as hard as it had been.

 

Was that the game where Beckett also threw one at "99" to Sammy?

 

I had my doubts about the gun in that game.