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The "Is Felix Ready?" Thread

CubsWin

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CubsWin Myrtle Beach Pelicans

CubsWin

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At some point this season, the Cubs will likely call up Felix Pie. He is off to a very fast start this season with a hit in every game he has played. Through 5 games he is batting .474/.524/.684. He's only had 19 ABs, plus, Felix is known to be a fast starter, so clearly he will cool off. But how much?

 

He started strong last season going .301/.368/.494 in April. But then he stopped seeing fastballs when teams figured out that he couldn't hit the breaking ball. He struggled mightly in May and June batting .227 with an OBP under .300 and a SLG under .400. Some worried that the Cubs prized prospect would top out at AAA, but he rebounded with a very strong 2nd half after apparently making the necessary adjustments to hitting the breaking ball.

 

He had a good spring and made Piniella at least think about keeping him. Is he ready now? Is the only thing keeping him in AAA the current depth in the Cubs outfield? Or does he legitimately still have things to work on? If so, what do you think they are?

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Soriano12 ACL Cubs

Soriano12

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http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/1034/pi2qr4.gif > Floyd

 

You realize it's not pronounced that way, right?

 

Is Floyd pronounced with a "short" O ?

TruffleShuffle Cooperstown

TruffleShuffle

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At some point this season, the Cubs will likely call up Felix Pie. He is off to a very fast start this season with a hit in every game he has played. Through 5 games he is batting .474/.524/.684. He's only had 19 ABs, plus, Felix is known to be a fast starter, so clearly he will cool off. But how much?

 

He started strong last season going .301/.368/.494 in April. But then he stopped seeing fastballs when teams figured out that he couldn't hit the breaking ball. He struggled mightly in May and June batting .227 with an OBP under .300 and a SLG under .400. Some worried that the Cubs prized prospect would top out at AAA, but he rebounded with a very strong 2nd half after apparently making the necessary adjustments to hitting the breaking ball.

 

He had a good spring and made Piniella at least think about keeping him. Is he ready now? Is the only thing keeping him in AAA the current depth in the Cubs outfield? Or does he legitimately still have things to work on? If so, what do you think they are?

 

yes, plate discipline

CubsWin Myrtle Beach Pelicans

CubsWin

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At some point this season, the Cubs will likely call up Felix Pie. He is off to a very fast start this season with a hit in every game he has played. Through 5 games he is batting .474/.524/.684. He's only had 19 ABs, plus, Felix is known to be a fast starter, so clearly he will cool off. But how much?

 

He started strong last season going .301/.368/.494 in April. But then he stopped seeing fastballs when teams figured out that he couldn't hit the breaking ball. He struggled mightly in May and June batting .227 with an OBP under .300 and a SLG under .400. Some worried that the Cubs prized prospect would top out at AAA, but he rebounded with a very strong 2nd half after apparently making the necessary adjustments to hitting the breaking ball.

 

He had a good spring and made Piniella at least think about keeping him. Is he ready now? Is the only thing keeping him in AAA the current depth in the Cubs outfield? Or does he legitimately still have things to work on? If so, what do you think they are?

 

yes, plate discipline

I agree. That is the most glaring weakness to his game. He needs to get a lot better than the 3-to-1 K/BB ratio he put up last season if he is going to fulfill his hype.

 

In 83 ABs last April at the same level, he struckout 15 times or once every 5 1/2 ABs while walking 8 times or about once every 10 ABs. In his 261 2nd half ABs last season, after he figured things out, he struckout 49 times (still about once every 5 1/2 ABs) and walked 19 times (about once every 13 1/2 ABs). We'll have to wait and see, but through 25 ABs in the first 7 games this season, he has struckout twice (once every 12 ABs) and walked three times (once every 8). Fairly meaningless numbers due to the sample size, but all we have to go on at this point.

 

I don't think he can be called "ready" just yet. I need to see more consistent plate discipline over a larger sample. K/BB ratio isn't the only or best metric for tracking a player's batting eye. If some of the more saber-minded fans on this site can provide better metrics, we can get a more accurate picture of Pie's plate discipline and track his performance better. If he is able to get his K/BB ratio down to a true 2-to-1, it would be the first time in his career.

Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

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I need to see more consistent plate discipline over a larger sample. K/BB ratio isn't the only or best metric for tracking a player's batting eye. If some of the more saber-minded fans on this site can provide better metrics, we can get a more accurate picture of Pie's plate discipline and track his performance better.

 

Subtract AVG from OBP and you'll get IsoD. It'll give you a much better picture of a guy's ability to draw a walk while phasing out strikeouts. Basically, the number of times a guy strikes out is not indicative of future success or failure. You'll find plenty of awesome players who strike out a ton (Ryan Howard) and who do not strike out much (Albert Pujols). You'll also find terrible hitters who K a ton and who rarely K.

 

Using IsoD for Pie, you'll get the following numbers...

 

2003 (Low A): .061

2004 (High A): .063

2005 (AA, shortened season): .045

2006 (AAA): .058

 

In the majors, an IsoD of .06 is nothing special, but also isn't too bad. Pie can definitely stand to improve on those numbers...but the problem with these kinds of numbers is that it's difficult for players to radically improve on those numbers over the course of their careers. We'll see about Pie in that regard, but at some point, he has to face major league pitching if he is to continue to improve here.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

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We'll see about Pie in that regard, but at some point, he has to face major league pitching if he is to continue to improve here.

 

I think that's the most important point.

 

"Ready" is a subjective term, and can mean completely different things to different people. Is he ready to come up to the majors and star? Probably not. But he's probably ready to come up to the majors and not have his career destroyed. He could come up and put up acceptable 1st year numbers. Some people, like Dusty, think a prospect has to be 100% major league caliber good to earn the right to play in the majors. I disagree. I think you have to be willing and able to continue the coaching process of young players at the major league level. The major drawback to bringing a guy up too early is if he ends up being yo-yoed back and forth to the minors, and sits the bench a lot. At some point you have to give a guy a prolonged shot, and be willing to live through any struggles. Because just about anybody but Pujols and Cabrera are going to struggle, and they need exposure to major league pitching in order to learn to hit major league pitching.

Jazz ACL Cubs

Jazz

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Lets give him the rest of April before we say he is ready.

I am itching to see him at Wrigley but we still need to be patient with him.

 

the thing I'm worried about is he will come up and ride the bench, like murton is doing. With jones and floyd both hitting well, it could be a while for a spot to open up. I think a jones trade could remedy that, especially for a offensive SS at the break.

TruffleShuffle Cooperstown

TruffleShuffle

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We'll see about Pie in that regard, but at some point, he has to face major league pitching if he is to continue to improve here.

 

I think that's the most important point.

 

"Ready" is a subjective term, and can mean completely different things to different people. Is he ready to come up to the majors and star? Probably not. But he's probably ready to come up to the majors and not have his career destroyed. He could come up and put up acceptable 1st year numbers. Some people, like Dusty, think a prospect has to be 100% major league caliber good to earn the right to play in the majors. I disagree. I think you have to be willing and able to continue the coaching process of young players at the major league level. The major drawback to bringing a guy up too early is if he ends up being yo-yoed back and forth to the minors, and sits the bench a lot. At some point you have to give a guy a prolonged shot, and be willing to live through any struggles. Because just about anybody but Pujols and Cabrera are going to struggle, and they need exposure to major league pitching in order to learn to hit major league pitching.

 

Right, but it's not like he tore up the PCL last season. His numbers were pretty average, which suggests that he still has some things that he can work on at the AAA level. Yeah, if he keeps hitting like crazy the next two months, maybe we can say he doesn't have anything left to gain there, but we're hardly at that point.

Moonlight Graham College Ball

Moonlight Graham

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Lets give him the rest of April before we say he is ready.

I am itching to see him at Wrigley but we still need to be patient with him.

 

the thing I'm worried about is he will come up and ride the bench, like murton is doing. With jones and floyd both hitting well, it could be a while for a spot to open up. I think a jones trade could remedy that, especially for a offensive SS at the break.

 

I agree, sitting on the pine would not do him any good.

Right now we need to figure out how to wins some games. Here is to Hill shutting down the Reds today!

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