According to Bruce: Piniella Won't Skip 5th Starter

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Link.

 

Opening Day can’t be too far away when a manager begins to set his pitching rotation.

 

Lou Piniella did that Monday as he filled in a couple of key blanks. After Carlos Zambrano pitches the April 2 opener against the Reds in Cincinnati, lefty Ted Lilly will go in the second game of the season, two days later.

 

Jason Marquis will pitch the series finale in Cincinnati, and lefty Rich Hill will open the Milwaukee series on Friday, April 6.

 

 

“I guess we could if we really wanted to, but look, you work the guy who earns that spot and get him nice and ready and sharp to pitch, and all of a sudden you let him sit for two weeks,” Piniella said. “That’s not really fair. So I think we’re just going to pitch in rotation unless we get some bad weather.”

 

 

This is good to hear. I never liked skipping a starter. Maybe this will save some wear and tear on Zambrano in the early months.

[cheapseats]

Link.

 

Opening Day can’t be too far away when a manager begins to set his pitching rotation.

 

Lou Piniella did that Monday as he filled in a couple of key blanks. After Carlos Zambrano pitches the April 2 opener against the Reds in Cincinnati, lefty Ted Lilly will go in the second game of the season, two days later.

 

Jason Marquis will pitch the series finale in Cincinnati, and lefty Rich Hill will open the Milwaukee series on Friday, April 6.

 

 

“I guess we could if we really wanted to, but look, you work the guy who earns that spot and get him nice and ready and sharp to pitch, and all of a sudden you let him sit for two weeks,” Piniella said. “That’s not really fair. So I think we’re just going to pitch in rotation unless we get some bad weather.”

 

 

This is good to hear. I never liked skipping a starter. Maybe this will save some wear and tear on Zambrano in the early months.

 

I disagree with you on that one, Vance.

 

The research on the subject shows that an extra day off does little or nothing for the starting pitcher health-wise, but the day off does tend to have a negative effect on the pitcher's control.

[cubfan87]

Wasn't there some discussion last year (I don't remember if it was on this board, WGN, or in the newspapers) that Zambrano is a much better pitcher on normal rest? I thought I remembered hearing that he is actually not as sharp when he has the extra day.

[mul21]

In the short term there may be negative consequences, but what about at the end of the year when that #1 guy has 34, 35 starts and he's going against a guy who has only gone 31, 32 starts because everybody went in their assigned spot? I like the staying with the rotation for the benefits you may see at the end of the year and in the playoffs if you get there.

[Garwilly]

Wasn't there some discussion last year (I don't remember if it was on this board, WGN, or in the newspapers) that Zambrano is a much better pitcher on normal rest? I thought I remembered hearing that he is actually not as sharp when he has the extra day.

 

Extra day, more rest, more power, less sink.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Remember skinny Zambrano on normal rest last April? Not so hot.

[WearingTrousers]

Extra day, more rest, more power, less sink.

 

I think this is right on. That said, is it worth giving up some sinking movement in a few starts in order to have a rested and healthy arm come the end of the year? I'm with Piniella here, give our horse rest so he can be at his peak at the end of the season.

[AlwaysaCub]

I think that not ever skipping your 5th starter is a bad idea. If you skipped the 5th starter every time you could, your 5th starter might give up 8 starts. This on balance is a good thing, because your 5th starter tends to suck, which is why he's the 5th starter. Would you really rather have someone like Sean Marshall starting over Z and Rich Hill?

[cubfan87]

I would really love to see Zambrano get the extra rest. It's going to be nice to have a manager who wants a pitcher's arm to stay attached to his body. I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't crazy for thinking I had heard in the past that Zambrano actually pitches better on normal rest. The whole idea of less sinking action makes sense.

[cheapseats]

I think that not ever skipping your 5th starter is a bad idea. If you skipped the 5th starter every time you could, your 5th starter might give up 8 starts. This on balance is a good thing, because your 5th starter tends to suck, which is why he's the 5th starter. Would you really rather have someone like Sean Marshall starting over Z and Rich Hill?

 

Agreed. 5th starters are 5th starters because they're not as good as the other starters.

 

Earl Weaver famously said that's a lot easier to find four good pitchers than it is to find five.

 

As for saving Z's arm for the end of the season, the research shows that the best way to do that is have him throw fewer pitches per start rather than give him fewer starts.

 

There's absolutely no evidence that an extra day of rest has any long-term health benefit whatsoever.

 

For those with BP subscriptions:

 

Over the years, the concept of spreading starts out to as many pitchers as possible has been taken more and more literally. Once upon a time, the term "five-man rotation" meant that your best starters would throw every fifth day, and starters in the back of the rotation would be bumped when necessary to keep better pitchers on rotation.

 

I'm not trying to argue that working on three days' rest is more healthy than working on four days' rest, only that it isn't less healthy. Given the obvious tactical benefits that come from taking innings away from the worst pitchers on your staff and giving them to your best, shouldn't that be enough?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1596

 

A gathering body of orthopedic evidence suggests that pitchers lose their mechanics as they become fatigued, and it is those imperfect mechanics that put undue strain on the arm, ultimately leading to injury. This is why a single 150-pitch outing can be more dangerous than a dozen 100-pitch outings...But this also explains why working on three days' rest may not be any more dangerous than working on four days' rest, because there is no evidence - absolutely none - that a pitcher needs a fourth day off to reach a maximum state of rest.

 

Almost every pitching coach--and most pitchers that have tried--will tell you that when you pitch on three days' rest, your stuff is a little sharper, and has a little more sink.

 

There is statistical evidence that backs up that point.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1605

 

Not every pitcher has the same characteristics, and there are probably some pitchers who should get more than normal rest when possible - Pedro Martinez (all 170 pounds of him) for example. But Jazayerli's work shows that for the majority of starters there is no health benefit in getting an extra day's rest and, in fact, getting the extra day negatively impacts performance.

[goonys evil twin]

I think that not ever skipping your 5th starter is a bad idea. If you skipped the 5th starter every time you could, your 5th starter might give up 8 starts. This on balance is a good thing, because your 5th starter tends to suck, which is why he's the 5th starter. Would you really rather have someone like Sean Marshall starting over Z and Rich Hill?

 

In any one game, no. But over the course of a season in which an ace could theoretically start 35-36 times if he goes every 5 days, regardless of off days, perhaps.

 

Personally I'd rather see the Cubs keep Zambrano on normal rest early, but limit his pitch count early as well. I don't want them thinking 130 pitches would be fine since he's getting a little extra rest anyway.

[cheapseats]

I think that not ever skipping your 5th starter is a bad idea. If you skipped the 5th starter every time you could, your 5th starter might give up 8 starts. This on balance is a good thing, because your 5th starter tends to suck, which is why he's the 5th starter. Would you really rather have someone like Sean Marshall starting over Z and Rich Hill?

 

In any one game, no. But over the course of a season in which an ace could theoretically start 35-36 times if he goes every 5 days, regardless of off days, perhaps.

 

Personally I'd rather see the Cubs keep Zambrano on normal rest early, but limit his pitch count early as well. I don't want them thinking 130 pitches would be fine since he's getting a little extra rest anyway.

 

Which is what happened with Pedro Martinez when he was with the Red Sox in the early part of the decade. They would give him extra rest, but then they'd have him throw 130 pitches when he did start. They really blew it.

[radarluv1]

I think that not ever skipping your 5th starter is a bad idea. If you skipped the 5th starter every time you could, your 5th starter might give up 8 starts. This on balance is a good thing, because your 5th starter tends to suck, which is why he's the 5th starter. Would you really rather have someone like Sean Marshall starting over Z and Rich Hill?

 

In any one game, no. But over the course of a season in which an ace could theoretically start 35-36 times if he goes every 5 days, regardless of off days, perhaps.

 

Personally I'd rather see the Cubs keep Zambrano on normal rest early, but limit his pitch count early as well. I don't want them thinking 130 pitches would be fine since he's getting a little extra rest anyway.

 

i believe dusty actually said that when he was in chicago, without giving an actual number, when referring to someones 120+ pitch outing.

[oldstyle81]

Good because i have great seats for the sunday game in Milwaukee, i would love to see Zambrano

[cheapseats]

Good because i have great seats for the sunday game in Milwaukee, i would love to see Zambrano

 

I'm glad something good will come out of it. :wink:

[oldstyle81]

Good because i have great seats for the sunday game in Milwaukee, i would love to see Zambrano

 

I'm glad something good will come out of it. :wink:

 

actually nevermind that

 

i did the math and found out Zambrano would pitch the next 4 games i go to.

[98navigator]

A new article on Cubs.com says Lou will rank the fifth starter candidates following Guzman's performance on Friday.

 

"He's a veteran pitcher with experience," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "He hasn't done anything here in Spring Training that you don't like. I'll let you know [who's in the lead] after Friday when I see [Angel] Guzman."

 

Miller's velocity was in the high 80s however, he hit 90mph once.

 

He was not aware of the radar gun readings, but was averaging between 87 and 89 mph, and touched 90 mph. It doesn't matter as long as he's getting guys out. Hopefully, that's enough to win the fifth spot.

 

"I was curious to see how he would respond after I brought his name up the other day," Piniella said. "I do like the kid. Anybody can get hit on any given day."

[CubColtPacer]

A new article on Cubs.com says Lou will rank the fifth starter candidates following Guzman's performance on Friday.

 

"He's a veteran pitcher with experience," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "He hasn't done anything here in Spring Training that you don't like. I'll let you know [who's in the lead] after Friday when I see [Angel] Guzman."

 

Miller's velocity was in the high 80s however, he hit 90mph once.

 

He was not aware of the radar gun readings, but was averaging between 87 and 89 mph, and touched 90 mph. It doesn't matter as long as he's getting guys out. Hopefully, that's enough to win the fifth spot.

 

"I was curious to see how he would respond after I brought his name up the other day," Piniella said. "I do like the kid. Anybody can get hit on any given day."

 

From the interpretation of that quote and from their outings, my guess is that if Guzman has a good outing on Friday, he'll be the leader-if he has an average to below average one, then Miller will be the leader right now. It is encouraging to hear Miller in the high 80's and hitting 90 rather than 82-84 like we were hearing early in camp.

[98navigator]

FYI, Cotts is out of the running for the fifth starter job.

 

Tribune

 

"I don't think we have enough time in two weeks to stretch everybody out," Piniella said. "I think what we'll do with Cotts is settle him into the bullpen."

 

I think Lou is just being diplomatic in his comments about keeping Cotts in the bullpen. It's painfully obvious that he wasn't cutting it as a starter...