Patience can be taught?

[CubinNY]

There are hitters who are patient but with no power and low batting average (Bellhorne, Hattiberg, C. Guillen)

 

I don't understand this grouping. Is that Carlos Guillen? He's hit .300 plus for three straight years. And while he's no threat to the HR record, I wouldn't say he's got no power. Similarly, Bellhorn wasn't devoid of power either. Juan Pierre has no power. Neifi Perez has very little power. But Bellhorn certainly has (had?) some.

 

I admittedly didn't dig too deep when siting examples, I guess very little power? Bellhorn has 69 HRS in 2,400 PAs (27 of those came in one year with the Cubs).

[Abe Frohman]

I divided the following player's career BB totals by their career AB totals and then listed their OPS (OB% + SLG%) so we can sort of see the relationship between the BB/AB% and the OPS%.

 

 

There are hitters who are patient but with no power and low batting average (Bellhorne, Hattiberg, C. Guillen)

Bellhorn - .154 (322/2093) - .738 (Bellhorn has actually shown good power when playing in full seasons)

Hatteberg - .127 (458/3813) - .767

Guillen - .108 (330/3064) - .798

 

There are hitters who are patient with lots of power and low batting average (Dunn, Burrell, Youklis)

Dunn - .203 (574/2832) - .893

Burrell - .161 (569/3527) - .841

Youklis - .161 (138/856) - .802

 

There are hitters who are patient with lots of power and high batting averges. (Pujols, Bonds, Howard)

Pujols - .141 (493/3489) - 1.048

Bonds - .253 (2426/9507) - 1.051

Howard - .153 (143/932) - 1.023

 

There are hitters with little patience, no power and low batting average (Neifi, Izturis) (but not many)

Perez - .045 (227/5063) - .674

Izturis - .050 (121/2437) - .631

 

There are hitters with little patience lots of power and low batting average (Kingman, Soriano, Monroe, Francouer)

Kingman - .092 (608/6607) - .780

Soriano - .057 (224/3902) - .835

Monroe - .068 (139/2057) - .771

Francoeur - .037 (34/908) - .782

 

There are hitters with little patience lots of power and high batting averag (Vlad, Aramis, LaRoche)

Guerrero - .099 (544/5502) - .973 (actually, Vlade has a .390 career OB%)

Ramirez - .072 (279/3897) - .825

LaRoche - .096 (121/1267) - .841

 

What I am saying is that SLG and AVE are independent of patience.

 

The best players combine all three and that's why we call them the best.

 

Having patience at the plate does not automatically make a player a better hitter.

 

There are all kinds of hitters, and some are good by some standards while others are good by different standards. Overall, I think that you can see that the hitters with higher percentage of BB per AB's tend to be your better overall hitters if you use the OPS to judge a guy.

 

Of course, a higher OB% is going to contribute to a higher OPS, but you can clearly see that the big hitters NOT drawing walks make more outs, while the guys who draw more walks tend to have fewer ABs. Your best hitters are the ones who produce runs - scoring them and driving them in. High walk totals only increase run proficiency.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think just going up and taking pitches puts you in a hole. I think pitch recognition is the key and knowing the pitches you can drive make you a better and more productive hitter. Look at Murton. He knows his zone pretty well for a young guy. He's a guy that looks at a lot of pitches but, he saw his pitch which happened to be the first pitch and sent it into the bleachers in a exhibition game. You can not just go up to the plate and say "hey, I'm going to take some pitches"....you'll get killed by the pitchers.

[CubinNY]

I think just going up and taking pitches puts you in a hole. I think pitch recognition is the key and knowing the pitches you can drive make you a better and more productive hitter. Look at Murton. He knows his zone pretty well for a young guy. He's a guy that looks at a lot of pitches but, he saw his pitch which happened to be the first pitch and sent it into the bleachers in a exhibition game. You can not just go up to the plate and say "hey, I'm going to take some pitches"....you'll get killed by the pitchers.

 

I most adamantly. I would imagine Fuson does too. That's the entire point of being more patient.

[CubsWin]

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught...

 

Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

[David]

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught...

 

Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

 

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06

[CubsWin]

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught...

 

Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

 

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06

Thanks, davhern.

 

So keeping in mind that this isn't anything concrete and only just our first bit of available statistical information on the subject...

 

Last spring the Cubs struckout 166 times and walked 87 through 31 games, about a 2:1 ratio. Through 10 games this spring, they have struckout 50 times and walked 38.

 

So the early indications are good. Meaningless, but good.

[David]

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught...

 

Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

 

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06

Thanks, davhern.

 

So keeping in mind that this isn't anything concrete and only just our first bit of available statistical information on the subject...

 

Last spring the Cubs struckout 166 times and walked 87 through 31 games, about a 2:1 ratio. Through 10 games this spring, they have struckout 50 times and walked 38.

 

So the early indications are good. Meaningless, but good.

 

Although the samples are meaningless, I wouldn't approach the analysis that way. I wouldn't include strikeouts at all.

 

87 walks in 31 games = 2.81 BB/G

38 walks in 10 games = 3.80 BB/G

 

A somewhat significant improvement, if not a significant sample size.

 

Just for kicks, in 2006 over the regular season, the Cubs had 395 BB in 162 games, which comes out to 2.43 BB/G..

 

If the Cubs actually were to sustain their spring training walk rate (which I wouldn't count on, at all), they'd walk about 616 times over 162 games, which would've been good for 2nd in the NL last year, just behind Philly's 626 and just ahead of Cincy's 614. Again, though, take ST numbers with less than a grain of salt. I just figured it out for fun.

[CubsWin]

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught...

 

Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

 

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06

Thanks, davhern.

 

So keeping in mind that this isn't anything concrete and only just our first bit of available statistical information on the subject...

 

Last spring the Cubs struckout 166 times and walked 87 through 31 games, about a 2:1 ratio. Through 10 games this spring, they have struckout 50 times and walked 38.

 

So the early indications are good. Meaningless, but good.

 

Although the samples are meaningless, I wouldn't approach the analysis that way. I wouldn't include strikeouts at all.

 

87 walks in 31 games = 2.81 BB/G

38 walks in 10 games = 3.80 BB/G

 

A somewhat significant improvement, if not a significant sample size.

 

Just for kicks, in 2006 over the regular season, the Cubs had 395 BB in 162 games, which comes out to 2.43 BB/G..

 

If the Cubs actually were to sustain their spring training walk rate (which I wouldn't count on, at all), they'd walk about 616 times over 162 games, which would've been good for 2nd in the NL last year, just behind Philly's 626 and just ahead of Cincy's 614. Again, though, take ST numbers with less than a grain of salt. I just figured it out for fun.

I agree, the strikeouts aren't all that important. I only included them for the sake of the ratio between Ks and BBs. I'm hungry, as I'm sure a lot of us are, for any sort of evidence to tell us what the Cubs will be like under Lou and Gerald this year. I don't think numbers from the first 10 games of spring training qualify as evidence, but its all we've got at this point. Unfortunately, all there is to do is wait.

[CubsWin]

Patience update...

 

The Cubs on Sunday once again had a 1:1 K/BB ratio with 5 Ks and 5 BBs bringing their spring totals to 63 Ks against 46 BBs through 12 games.

[UK1679666180]

Patience can't be taught, it can only be improved upon through time. Also, how pitchers pitch to you will determine whether or not you see more pitches taken.

[Soul]

Maybe on some teams (ehem, Dusty) you never really know how patient a hitter could have been because of the hitting philosophy. So then a guy gets a bad rap for being impatient, but really he's just doing what the coaches told him to do -- swing early & often.

[UK1679666180]

Dusty had patient teams in SF even excluding Bonds from that equation.

 

You're not going to have a dramatic improvement from someone unless something unusual happens where pitchers are afraid to get ahead in the count early by throwing strikes and nibble each pitch instead.

 

Players will improve over time, but if you're an avg. hitter who is aggressive early on and you stay an avg. hitter throughout your career, you'll almost never take great strides in patience even with coaches preaching patience at every opportunity.

[Backtobanks]

I did get a kick out of Dan Plesac during Saturday's game emphasizing the Cubs and their new patient approach at the plate and then applauding the agressiveness of these young hitters coming to the plate swinging.

[Soul]

I did get a kick out of Dan Plesac during Saturday's game emphasizing the Cubs and their new patient approach at the plate and then applauding the agressiveness of these young hitters coming to the plate swinging.

 

Everything's wonderful in March :wink:

[Guest]

Players will improve over time, but if you're an avg. hitter who is aggressive early on and you stay an avg. hitter throughout your career, you'll almost never take great strides in patience even with coaches preaching patience at every opportunity.

There are some players who have had their walk rate spike later in their careers after being free swingers when they arrive on the scene, Sosa being the example we are all most familiar with. It is usually tough to separate their approach from how pitchers approach them, however. The players that dramatically improve their walk rate are usually also the guys who dramatically improve their power as they mature. Are the players becoming more selective and having their power spike because they are picking better pitches to hit or are pitchers becoming more careful with them because the hitters now are more dangerous?

 

Probably some of each in those cases.

[UK1679666180]

I think pitchers pitched differently to Sosa once he took off in '98 and moreso later on around 00' and 01'.

 

He improved that off-season as far his approach, where he was laying off the slider low and away and getting into a hitters count and that's what helped him to have the great year. Then, pitchers pitched him different and his approach con't to improve in the later years.

 

But, Sosa wasn't the case of an avg. aggressive hitter remaining an avg. aggressive hitter while spiking his BBs. You look at hitters like Jones, DeRosa, Izturis, Barrett or 38% of the starting line-up, you won't see them have spikes in BBs b/c pitchers won't adjust.

 

This team will improve in BBs over last year b/c of Lee and Soriano over the platoon at 1B and Pierre last year not b/c of an improvement in approach.

 

Their ceiling with BBs will likely be 560, while up 170 over '06 that would put them middle of the pack. Their jump will be slugging.

[Guest]

Yeah, I was merely pointing to exceptions to the rule, not attempting to disprove the rule itself.

[UK1679666180]

Sosa is def. the exception. Take someone like C. Patterson, it'll take something extroad. for him to avg. 60BBs per year. That's where I think the role of a hitting coach gets unfairly criticized for a player's inability to make sign. improvements compared to where that player's approach has already been conditioned at.

 

If you want to see dramatic improvements in approach, you have rework the roster instead of hiring a new hitting coach. Of course, a change can be a positive but it can't turn an Econo Lodge into a Ritz Carlton.

[CubinNY]

Patience can't be taught, it can only be improved upon through time. Also, how pitchers pitch to you will determine whether or not you see more pitches taken.

 

If it can be improved upon over time, then how do you account for the improvement?

 

I think you are giving far, far too much power to the pitcher and not enough to the hitter. It's been the Cubs mentality for a long time. In other words, a hitter doesn't earn a walk, he takes a walk. There is no evidence of that what so ever.

 

When Sosa was great he laid off the outside, off-spped junk. Both before and after he'd swing at it. Just as some things can be learned they can be forgotten.

[Guest]

I believe UK's point was that it is unrealistic to expect a new hitting coach to cause a step change in a hitter's ability at the plate. Hitters can improve over time, but will not generally see dramatic changes all at once due to a new approach espoused by a hitting coach.

[CubinNY]

I believe UK's point was that it is unrealistic to expect a new hitting coach to cause a step change in a hitter's ability at the plate. Hitters can improve over time, but will not generally see dramatic changes all at once due to a new approach espoused by a hitting coach.

 

I don't necessarily disagree. It is an emprical question. I can't wait to see what the data look like for SD farm teams this year.

[UK1679666180]

Patience can't be taught, it can only be improved upon through time. Also, how pitchers pitch to you will determine whether or not you see more pitches taken.

 

If it can be improved upon over time, then how do you account for the improvement?

 

I think you are giving far, far too much power to the pitcher and not enough to the hitter. It's been the Cubs mentality for a long time. In other words, a hitter doesn't earn a walk, he takes a walk. There is no evidence of that what so ever.

 

When Sosa was great he laid off the outside, off-spped junk. Both before and after he'd swing at it. Just as some things can be learned they can be forgotten.

 

Improvement comes from age, experience, trying to improve an eye at the plate comes from learning what works and more importantly what doesn't work.

 

Pitchers only adjust when a hitter becomes great, obviously they initially adjust to the rookie's strengths/weaknesses at the plate, but once that's established unless something happens like it did for Sosa, it stays the same. That's not giving too much credit to the pitcher, that's the exception to the rule.

 

There are much better ways to allocate time than trying to get dramatic changes from a 25yo hitter that has been conditioned to be overly aggressive his entire career of playing ball. That can be improved, but nothing beyond standard progression that every player typically goes thru.

[CubsWin]

Patience update...

 

The Cubs on Sunday once again had a 1:1 K/BB ratio with 5 Ks and 5 BBs bringing their spring totals to 63 Ks against 46 BBs through 12 games.

Not saying it means anything, just reporting the facts, but Monday marks the 2nd consecutive day the Cubs had a 1:1 K/BB ratio with 5 each.

 

That brings their spring totals to 68 Ks and 51 BBs through 13 games. That ratio is well above league average this spring, but with such a small sample size, the fact that its spring training stats and the unlikelihood of a team's patience to change this quickly, its highly doubtful this will continue into the season.

[CubsWin]

Patience update...

 

The Cubs walked 6 times on Tuesday against 9 strikeouts. That's 57 walks in 14 games if I've remembered correctly. That's an average of 4.07 walks per game...so far.