Patience can be taught?

[CubinNY]

This is from Phil Rogers Column in the Trib

Teaching patience

 

Apparently you can teach hitters to take pitches and work the count. Grady Fuson, the guy who helped create the so-called "Moneyball" approach in Oakland, made plate discipline a priority for San Diego's minor-league teams last year.

 

He was thrilled then to see the Padres draw more walks throughout the farm system than any other organization. The number of San Diego minor-leaguers who saw at least 3.5 pitches per plate appearance increased from 54.6 percent in 2005 to 69.1 percent.

 

The percentage that saw at least 3.79 pitches per plate appearances (the big-league average) jumped from 20 to 60.

 

Those data are from last year. I will be interested to see if they can be repeated this year.

[Guancous]

That is the last information I expected Phil Rogers to report.

[CubColtPacer]

The question is-did that approach help them or hurt them? I'm all for drawing more walks, but two of the 5 Padres teams (I can't find team statistics for rookie ball at the moment) finished dead last in runs scored on the season, even if one of those teams had a significant advantage in walks to everybody else (they had 608 walks while the second best team in walks had 535, but they finished dead last in RS). Is it something where you force an extreme version of patience on minor league hitters for a couple of years, and then hope that when you loosen the reins they will be able to have a nice blend of patience and aggressiveness? I'm not sure there is enough data to show either way right now-it would be interesting if they can repeat that and to see what happens to their runs scored totals.

[CubinNY]

The question is-did that approach help them or hurt them? I'm all for drawing more walks, but two of the 5 Padres teams (I can't find team statistics for rookie ball at the moment) finished dead last in runs scored on the season, even if one of those teams had a significant advantage in walks to everybody else (they had 608 walks while the second best team in walks had 535, but they finished dead last in RS). Is it something where you force an extreme version of patience on minor league hitters for a couple of years, and then hope that when you loosen the reins they will be able to have a nice blend of patience and aggressiveness? I'm not sure there is enough data to show either way right now-it would be interesting if they can repeat that and to see what happens to their runs scored totals.

 

The records of minor league of teams don't matter.

 

90% of those guys won't make it to the big leagues.

[CubColtPacer]

The question is-did that approach help them or hurt them? I'm all for drawing more walks, but two of the 5 Padres teams (I can't find team statistics for rookie ball at the moment) finished dead last in runs scored on the season, even if one of those teams had a significant advantage in walks to everybody else (they had 608 walks while the second best team in walks had 535, but they finished dead last in RS). Is it something where you force an extreme version of patience on minor league hitters for a couple of years, and then hope that when you loosen the reins they will be able to have a nice blend of patience and aggressiveness? I'm not sure there is enough data to show either way right now-it would be interesting if they can repeat that and to see what happens to their runs scored totals.

 

The records of minor league of teams don't matter.

 

90% of those guys won't make it to the big leagues.

 

I was pointing it out to say that they are emphasizing patience so much to the detriment of these players. They might be teaching patience and players are walking more, but the overall offensive performance of their system was poor last year, and it could be partially due to their philosophy. I want my hitters to be patient at the plate, but the numbers that their system shows indicates that they are pushing that too hard, just like the Cubs system is not pushing it hard enough.

 

Edit: BTW, I never said anything about their record-just about their amount of runs scored, which would seem to be a logical thing to look at after seeing the huge increase in walks to see if that paid off in more runs scored or not.

[goonys evil twin]

I was pointing it out to say that they are emphasizing patience so much to the detriment of these players. They might be teaching patience and players are walking more, but the overall offensive performance of their system was poor last year, and it could be partially due to their philosophy. I want my hitters to be patient at the plate, but the numbers that their system shows indicates that they are pushing that too hard, just like the Cubs system is not pushing it hard enough.

 

Edit: BTW, I never said anything about their record-just about their amount of runs scored, which would seem to be a logical thing to look at after seeing the huge increase in walks to see if that paid off in more runs scored or not.

 

The fact that runs are low doesn't prove that the emphasis is to the detriment of the players. It's a detriment to the minor league teams' ability to score runs. But that's meaningless. It's only a detriment if it causes some "should be" major leaguers to completely flame out. But you'd never be able to prove that.

[CubColtPacer]

I was pointing it out to say that they are emphasizing patience so much to the detriment of these players. They might be teaching patience and players are walking more, but the overall offensive performance of their system was poor last year, and it could be partially due to their philosophy. I want my hitters to be patient at the plate, but the numbers that their system shows indicates that they are pushing that too hard, just like the Cubs system is not pushing it hard enough.

 

Edit: BTW, I never said anything about their record-just about their amount of runs scored, which would seem to be a logical thing to look at after seeing the huge increase in walks to see if that paid off in more runs scored or not.

 

The fact that runs are low doesn't prove that the emphasis is to the detriment of the players. It's a detriment to the minor league teams' ability to score runs. But that's meaningless. It's only a detriment if it causes some "should be" major leaguers to completely flame out. But you'd never be able to prove that.

 

That's why I want more data-I can definitely say that this cannot be proven as a positive thing either though with the available data. Right now it is completely up in the air if this very patient approach will have a positive effect or negative effect.

[BigbadB]

I was pointing it out to say that they are emphasizing patience so much to the detriment of these players. They might be teaching patience and players are walking more, but the overall offensive performance of their system was poor last year, and it could be partially due to their philosophy. I want my hitters to be patient at the plate, but the numbers that their system shows indicates that they are pushing that too hard, just like the Cubs system is not pushing it hard enough.

 

Edit: BTW, I never said anything about their record-just about their amount of runs scored, which would seem to be a logical thing to look at after seeing the huge increase in walks to see if that paid off in more runs scored or not.

 

I think it's worth mentioning that the Padres farm system is one of the worst in baseball. The lack of good to decent position playing prospects might have a much bigger impact on the lack of run scoring, as well as won/loss records of their minor league teams.

[CubColtPacer]

I was pointing it out to say that they are emphasizing patience so much to the detriment of these players. They might be teaching patience and players are walking more, but the overall offensive performance of their system was poor last year, and it could be partially due to their philosophy. I want my hitters to be patient at the plate, but the numbers that their system shows indicates that they are pushing that too hard, just like the Cubs system is not pushing it hard enough.

 

Edit: BTW, I never said anything about their record-just about their amount of runs scored, which would seem to be a logical thing to look at after seeing the huge increase in walks to see if that paid off in more runs scored or not.

 

I think it's worth mentioning that the Padres farm system is one of the worst in baseball. The lack of good to decent position playing prospects might have a much bigger impact on the lack of run scoring, as well as won/loss records of their minor league teams.

 

That's a very valid point. There's too many variables right now that could skew the results like that, and unfortunately due to promotions there is no way to isolate a teams result from year to year either.

[Balsa]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

Look at it this way.

 

If I get one guy on base an inning I have a chance to score nine runs that game. If I have a nine pitch inning in the first I only have a chance to score in eight of those innings now. So on and so forth.

 

Now once the base runner is on if he comes around to score or not is another conversation. Having the runner on creates the opportunity.

 

Now I believe in the work of James, but I also believe that you have to apply it to real world people. Those broad stats now become situational. Say I have a line up that has outs in the 7-8-9 holes. Yes getting one of those guys on by a walk not only extends the inning, but opens the pandoras box of matchups, game score, and inning. The variables that you talk about now come into play. In the end however by getting one of the outs on by walk at least I have created the opportunity to have a positive inning.

[CubinNY]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

Obviously I think plate discipline can be learend, however the data are far from conclusive.

 

Because the Pads minor leagures were very bad the previous year any improvement last year could be attributed to regression toward the mean. The important thing is sustainability. If these guys can sustain the righer rates then we have more data. Yet the rates sitll aren't that much above average. I'd like to see some real sustained improvement above the mean before I'd draw any conclusions.

[CubColtPacer]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

[CubinNY]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

[CubColtPacer]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

 

I'm not saying that plate discipline and those things are inextricably linked-they certainly aren't (one can have great AVG and great SLG and still have great plate discipline).

I'm saying that the fact that those numbers are the way there are might suggest that the Padres hitters took more pitches simply to take more pitches, and found themselves down down in the count a great deal. There might have been such an emphasis on taking pitches that hitters were scared to go after the first few pitches, which led to either walks or being down 0-2 or 1-2-counts that are linked to high K rates and low AVG and SLG. It could come from the players in the Padres system as well, but that could be an explanation for those rates.

 

Now-even if they are doing that, it may be a good long-term strategy. Teach the plate discipline and force people to watch plenty of pitches, and then slowly let them start attacking pitches that they now know are good pitches.

[David]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

 

I can't agree with the bolded statement. While I in no way believe that lower AVG and SLG numbers are the result of their more patient approach at the plate (it probably has a lot to do with a lack of talent, by and large), they are definitely not independent of one another.

 

They're all linked pretty closely as the result of a general approach at the plate.

[CubinNY]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

 

I can't agree with the bolded statement. While I in no way believe that lower AVG and SLG numbers are the result of their more patient approach at the plate (it probably has a lot to do with a lack of talent, by and large), they are definitely not independent of one another.

 

They're all linked pretty closely as the result of a general approach at the plate.

 

My only reply is that you can teach Ronny Cedeno to be more patient at the plate, yet he will never be able to slug like A-Rod.

 

How do you account for the Adam Dunns and Mark Bellhorns of MLB?

[wolf stansson]

I'd like to see some real sustained improvement above the mean before I'd draw any conclusions.

[David]

I can't agree with the bolded statement. While I in no way believe that lower AVG and SLG numbers are the result of their more patient approach at the plate (it probably has a lot to do with a lack of talent, by and large), they are definitely not independent of one another.

 

They're all linked pretty closely as the result of a general approach at the plate.

 

My only reply is that you can teach Ronny Cedeno to be more patient at the plate, yet he will never be able to slug like A-Rod.

 

How do you account for the Adam Dunns and Mark Bellhorns of MLB?

 

I'm not sure what you're asking. Adam Dunn's and Bellhorn's (or any ballplayer's) abilities are all the result of their approaches at the plate and their world class baseball talent.

 

Obviously, Ronny's slugging (or his patience or his overall hitting ability) will never be at ARod's level. That doesn't make SLG independent from OBP or from batting average or even strikeouts, and certainly not from the hitter's actual approach to batting.

 

They're all intertwined (to varying degrees) and are all the result of what the hitter is doing up there at the plate.

 

Dunn's numbers are a result of an incredibly powerful swing, a very patient approach at the plate (both of which could lead to strikeouts), and an assload of hitting talent.

[AlwaysaCub]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

 

I can't agree with the bolded statement. While I in no way believe that lower AVG and SLG numbers are the result of their more patient approach at the plate (it probably has a lot to do with a lack of talent, by and large), they are definitely not independent of one another.

 

They're all linked pretty closely as the result of a general approach at the plate.

 

My only reply is that you can teach Ronny Cedeno to be more patient at the plate, yet he will never be able to slug like A-Rod.

 

How do you account for the Adam Dunns and Mark Bellhorns of MLB?

 

Slugging, plate discipline, and hitting for average are correlated, but not 1 to 1 I would say. Seeing more pitches per plate appearance would make it more likely that a player slug less and hit for higher average, but this is just a general trend. There are always outliers. So I agree that they are not independent, but that doesn't mean that knowing a players plate discipline and batting average will allow you to determine what he will slug.

[Abe Frohman]

There is absolutely NOTHING negative that can come out of taking a walk. The worst thing is that you "clog" up the bases and create "force-outs."

 

The benefits of being a patient hitter are limitless.

 

* You see more pitches.

* The pitcher has more chances of throwing down the gut.

* The pitcher throws more pitches, inducing fatigue.

* You greatly increase the chance to score a run.

* You give your teammates a look at what pitches the pitcher is throwing.

 

The idea of being a patient hitter is not to draw a walk, it is to get a pitch to hit. Ted Williams is arguably the greatest hitter to play the game, and he wrote books about hitting (most notably, "The Science of Hitting"). Williams lived and died by working the count in order to allow the pitcher to make a mistake and give him a pitch to drive.

 

When a player walks 100 times a year, that is 100 additional chances he has created for himself to score a run. Teams that don't get on base don't score runs (2006 Cubs). Teams that get on base score more runs - it's all relative. Patient hitters are better hitters. Period.

[CubColtPacer]

There is absolutely NOTHING negative that can come out of taking a walk. The worst thing is that you "clog" up the bases and create "force-outs."

 

The benefits of being a patient hitter are limitless.

 

* You see more pitches.

* The pitcher has more chances of throwing down the gut.

* The pitcher throws more pitches, inducing fatigue.

* You greatly increase the chance to score a run.

* You give your teammates a look at what pitches the pitcher is throwing.

 

The idea of being a patient hitter is not to draw a walk, it is to get a pitch to hit. Ted Williams is arguably the greatest hitter to play the game, and he wrote books about hitting (most notably, "The Science of Hitting"). Williams lived and died by working the count in order to allow the pitcher to make a mistake and give him a pitch to drive.

 

When a player walks 100 times a year, that is 100 additional chances he has created for himself to score a run. Teams that don't get on base don't score runs (2006 Cubs). Teams that get on base score more runs - it's all relative. Patient hitters are better hitters. Period.

 

I don't think any of that is being debated. What is questioned is if these hitters in the Padres organization were bypassing pitches they could drive in order to fulfill their mandate of being "patient" that their coaches were emphasizing, which led to more walks and more times down in the count. Patience until a pitch to drive comes along is the best strategy, but I think the evidence would at least give a possibility of indicating that this was not the strategy that some of the Padres affiliates were using-instead, from their stats, their hitters appeared to be going up to the plate looking for a walk.

[CubinNY]

Well this goes against the prevailing philosophy regarding plate discipline.

 

I'm not sure how it proves anything like that-anybody can be taught to take more walks at the expense of some of their hits. What San Diego is trying to do is instill plate discipline and make their hitters better, which I don't think this evidence has any proof for that at all.

 

Edit: I do think plate discipline to a point is learned (some of it is natural, and some of it can be improved)-but this shows me very little except that they pushed their hitters to take more pitchers, which in a couple leagues caused high walks, high SO's, and very low AVG and SLG.

 

That's not true at all. The high strike outs, low average, and slugging are independent of plate discipline. It shows how bad some of the players are in their system.

 

Adam Dunn has high strikes, low average and great slugging.

 

I can't agree with the bolded statement. While I in no way believe that lower AVG and SLG numbers are the result of their more patient approach at the plate (it probably has a lot to do with a lack of talent, by and large), they are definitely not independent of one another.

 

They're all linked pretty closely as the result of a general approach at the plate.

 

My only reply is that you can teach Ronny Cedeno to be more patient at the plate, yet he will never be able to slug like A-Rod.

 

How do you account for the Adam Dunns and Mark Bellhorns of MLB?

 

I'm not sure what you're asking. Adam Dunn's and Bellhorn's (or any ballplayer's) abilities are all the result of their approaches at the plate and their world class hand-eye coordination.

 

Obviously, Ronny's slugging (or his patience or his overall hitting ability) will never be at ARod's level. That doesn't make SLG independent from OBP or from batting average or even strikeouts, and certainly not from the hitter's actual approach to batting.

 

They're all intertwined (to varying degrees) and are all the result of what the hitter is doing up there at the plate.

 

Dunn's numbers are a result of an incredibly powerful swing, a very patient approach at the plate (both of which could lead to strikeouts), and an assload of hitting talent.

 

I'm not being clear.

 

There are hitters who are patient but with no power and low batting average (Bellhorne, Hattiberg, C. Guillen)

 

There are hitters who are patient with lots of power and low batting average (Dunn, Burrell, Youklis)

 

There are hitters who are patient with lots of pwer and high batting averges. (Pujols, Bonds, Howard)

 

There are hitters with little patience, no power and low batting average (Neifi, Izturis) (but not many)

 

There are hitters with little patience lots of power and low batting average (Kingman, Soriano, Monroe, Francouer)

 

There are hitters with little patience lots of power and high batting averag (Vlad, Aramis, LaRoche)

 

What I am saying is that SLG and AVE are independent of patience.

 

The best players combine all three and that's why we call them the best.

 

Having patience at the plate does not automatically make a player a better hitter.

[imb]

There are hitters with little patience, no power and low batting average (Neifi, Izturis) (but not many)

 

This made me laugh. There are plenty of these guys to go around. They're called "career minor leaguers).

[goonys evil twin]

There are hitters who are patient but with no power and low batting average (Bellhorne, Hattiberg, C. Guillen)

 

I don't understand this grouping. Is that Carlos Guillen? He's hit .300 plus for three straight years. And while he's no threat to the HR record, I wouldn't say he's got no power. Similarly, Bellhorn wasn't devoid of power either. Juan Pierre has no power. Neifi Perez has very little power. But Bellhorn certainly has (had?) some.