Hypothetical Scenario

[Mephistopheles]

And there's a pretty good chance it happens.

 

 

What happens if Angel Guzman pitches in Spring Training like he did in 2003? Displaying the plus pitches and results. (16.0 IP 2 ER). In that case there's an argument for him being the third best starter in the organization.

[Guest]

And there's a pretty good chance it happens.

 

 

What happens if Angel Guzman pitches in Spring Training like he did in 2003? Displaying the plus pitches and results. (16.0 IP 2 ER). In that case there's an argument for him being the third best starter in the organization.

I think Guzman is headed to Iowa no matter what he does if everyone else is healthy. That may not be fair, but I think that's the way it is.

[Jon]

Iowa is the best case scenario. Rotting away in long relief is probably the worst.

[NCCubFan]

Guzman's probably the odd man out because he still has options. And I agree it would be better for him to start at Iowa than sit in the Cubs' bullpen.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And there's a pretty good chance it happens.

 

 

What happens if Angel Guzman pitches in Spring Training like he did in 2003? Displaying the plus pitches and results. (16.0 IP 2 ER). In that case there's an argument for him being the third best starter in the organization.

I think Guzman is headed to Iowa no matter what he does if everyone else is healthy. That may not be fair, but I think that's the way it is.

 

It's sad but true.

[Guest]

I don't necessarily think the bullpen is a bad option for bringing someone along to the majors. It was Weaver's favorite method, as an example. Santana didn't seem hurt by it at all. Oswalt pitched in the pen when he first arrived (though for a very short time). While Liriano got hurt anyway, his performance certainly wasn't impacted by pitching from the pen for a while.

 

The trouble is that everyone looks healthy right now. Who knows if that will be the case come April, but right now you've got:

 

Wood

Dempster

Eyre

Howry

Wuertz

Ohman

Cotts

 

+

 

Miller / Marquis / Hill (loser of the rotation battle - it ain't gonna be Prior if he's healthy)

 

Hendry could certainly trade some of that depth at the end of the spring to make room for Angel. There are always, always teams looking for bullpen help. I just don't think they'll look at it as a priority to make a spot for him, no matter how well he pitches.

[Jon]

It would be one thing if they were going to carry 11 pitchers, but he'd be the long man in a 7-man bullpen. And Hendry doesn't exactly act quickly when a young pitcher doesn't see the mound for a week at a time.

[Mephistopheles]

I know he won't break camp as a starter but continuing our world of loving Angel, what if it's May 1st and he's sitting 5-0 with a 2.something or lower ERA in Iowa with impressive command, K's, and stuff and Jason Marquis is sitting at 1-3 with a 5 plus ERA.

 

I guess my scenario is at what point does Angel Guzman get a chance if {Prior, Hill, Marquis, Lilly, Zambrano} are healthy and Marquis is not performing? At some point JH is going to have to give Angel a chance provided he's healthy and performing, of course.

 

 

What if it's Prior at 1-3 with a 5+ ERA? Or Lilly?

 

If Prior's at 1-3 with a 5+ ERA there's a pretty good chance he's not healthy and will be on the DL within a week or so OR he had two bad starts and two excellent starts and it's just a quick anamoly. if it's lilly then the cubs are out of the division and Z is on his way out...

[CuseCubFan69]

Marquis might be an interesting challenge for Lou and if he does struggle I'm hoping Lou does the right thing and not who's getting paid what thing.

 

IMO the Cubs are going to wait and see if Guzman can stay healthy until whatever time they think will be the right time and then make a decision if Guzman is pitching the way we all think he can.....and if Marquis is pitching the way we think he can.

[craig]

I know he won't break camp as a starter but continuing our world of loving Angel, what if it's May 1st and he's sitting 5-0 with a 2.something or lower ERA in Iowa with impressive command, K's, and stuff and Jason Marquis is sitting at 1-3 with a 5 plus ERA.

..

 

Obviously this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But, my guess is that they would wait, that five starts and 27 innings of 2.0-ERA pitching by Guzman would not be enough to necessitate that he be brought into the rotation. My guess is that if the big-league team is still swimming along reasonably, that they would not make a switch that quickly. (If Marquis was 6.5, maybe, but not at 5.10).

 

In my view a key date is June 15 (IIRC), the date I believe when Marquis can first be traded. I think that even if they do realize that Guzman is safer and superior as well as much cheaper, I'd think they may wish to stay the course until Marquis becomes movable. If you pull him on May 1 and torpedo any chance of being able to trade him, that might be a problem. But if he can get through June 10 with a .500-ish record and an ERA in the 4.3-5.3 range, perhaps you can unload all of his contract, and perhaps even get some value in return, who knows.

 

One other key is the health not only of the rotation but also the bullpen. As Time alluded to, it might be that Guzman would come up first as a reliever, and get a chance to settle in and prove himself there. It might also be that if a RH reliever gets hurt (Kerry? Dempster? Howry?), that it might provide an excuse for moving Marquis there. (He's got big-league experience in relief, Guzman doesn't. We're not down on Jason, we just think he can help us more in relief than in rotation...). I'm thinking way back to when Kerry broke in. Terry Mullholland was in the rotation, and Kerry pitched well in Iowa. But it was the injury to forgettable reliever Bob Patterson that really triggered Kerry's recall, because that provided a good reason to move Mulholland from rotation to relief. I could envision that kind of thing happening with Marquis. And that sort of scenario would not necessitate that Marquis be stinking, or that you're trashing him or his trade value. If he's doing fine in relief, somebody else might view him as a guy who could help their rotation and be willing to take on his contract.

 

Hendry has claimed other teams were interested in paying him comparably to what the Cubs paid him. That may be false. And if Marquis is again as pathetic as last year and as most board-posters seem to expect this year, the interest in him come June may be way less than it was in December. But if he's pitching at a competent if unexceptional level, his market interest may be as high or higher than it was in December.

 

The key is getting him to June with reasonable trade value.

[nilodnayr]

I know he won't break camp as a starter but continuing our world of loving Angel, what if it's May 1st and he's sitting 5-0 with a 2.something or lower ERA in Iowa with impressive command, K's, and stuff and Jason Marquis is sitting at 1-3 with a 5 plus ERA.

..

 

Obviously this is an extremely unlikely scenario. But, my guess is that they would wait, that five starts and 27 innings of 2.0-ERA pitching by Guzman would not be enough to necessitate that he be brought into the rotation. My guess is that if the big-league team is still swimming along reasonably, that they would not make a switch that quickly. (If Marquis was 6.5, maybe, but not at 5.10).

 

In my view a key date is June 15 (IIRC), the date I believe when Marquis can first be traded. I think that even if they do realize that Guzman is safer and superior as well as much cheaper, I'd think they may wish to stay the course until Marquis becomes movable. If you pull him on May 1 and torpedo any chance of being able to trade him, that might be a problem. But if he can get through June 10 with a .500-ish record and an ERA in the 4.3-5.3 range, perhaps you can unload all of his contract, and perhaps even get some value in return, who knows.

 

One other key is the health not only of the rotation but also the bullpen. As Time alluded to, it might be that Guzman would come up first as a reliever, and get a chance to settle in and prove himself there. It might also be that if a RH reliever gets hurt (Kerry? Dempster? Howry?), that it might provide an excuse for moving Marquis there. (He's got big-league experience in relief, Guzman doesn't. We're not down on Jason, we just think he can help us more in relief than in rotation...). I'm thinking way back to when Kerry broke in. Terry Mullholland was in the rotation, and Kerry pitched well in Iowa. But it was the injury to forgettable reliever Bob Patterson that really triggered Kerry's recall, because that provided a good reason to move Mulholland from rotation to relief. I could envision that kind of thing happening with Marquis. And that sort of scenario would not necessitate that Marquis be stinking, or that you're trashing him or his trade value. If he's doing fine in relief, somebody else might view him as a guy who could help their rotation and be willing to take on his contract.

 

Hendry has claimed other teams were interested in paying him comparably to what the Cubs paid him. That may be false. And if Marquis is again as pathetic as last year and as most board-posters seem to expect this year, the interest in him come June may be way less than it was in December. But if he's pitching at a competent if unexceptional level, his market interest may be as high or higher than it was in December.

 

The key is getting him to June with reasonable trade value.

 

A) June 15th is the date a player signed that year can be traded WITHOUT their permission, he can be traded before then with his permission.

B)Unless Angel is pitching no nos, it will take Marquis pitchingquite poorly to knock him out of the rotation

C) If B happens, as you said who the hell is going to want to trade for a crappy pitcher whos owed 7M per for the next 3 years?

D)If Marquis is pitching average and Angel is pitching well, I think the cubs value the security of having contingency plans in case of injury moreso than the $ saved by trading Marquis.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Arizona Phil (Cub Reporter) says Gooz has been looking good:

 

Of the twelve pitchers who threw today–and I saw these same guys throw two days ago–Angel Guzman continues to impress me the most. I realize he was pitching in Venezuela as recently as about six weeks ago, but his velocity, location, pitch variety, control, and command are right there right now. If it turns out the Cubs do have an opening in their starting rotation, I believe Gooz can pitch in an MLB rotation right now. He is light-years ahead of most of the other “B” group guys (and he’s ahead of most the “A” group guys, too!).

 

:D

 

(According to AZ Phil, the other B guys are Gallagher, Rapada, Pignatiello, Howard, Anderson, Walrond, Wells, Marmol, Mateo, Webb, and Cherry.)