Trade Zambrano? Phil Rogers Thinks...Maybe?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Link.

 

The Cubs could be as good with Zambrano as without him. It sounds crazy, but for as well as Clemens pitched a year ago, the Astros were only 10-9 in his starts. And the Philadelphia Phillies mysteriously started winning after trading their best hitter, Bobby Abreu. It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

The most likely way a Zambrano trade could work is the return on the trade itself. These types of deals generally benefit the seller, and a smart organization can use a bargaining chip like Zambrano to add strength.

 

Seattle traded a 28-year-old Mark Langston to Montreal for three pitchers: Randy Johnson, Brian Holman (on his way to becoming a quality starter before injuries ended his career) and reliever Gene Harris (briefly a closer in San Diego).

 

When the Mariners reached a contractual crossroads with Johnson, they traded him to Houston in one of the all-time best deals at the deadline, getting Freddy Garcia, shortstop Carlos Guillen and lefty John Halama.

 

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis? What if the Yankees, seeking another impact arm for October, would send you Carl Pavano plus money to pay much of the $22.95 million left on his contract and a couple of their best prospects, say, right-handers Humberto Sanchez and Tyler Clippard?

 

What could you get from the Mets? Perhaps a package built around one of their two best pitching prospects, right-handers Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and including Aaron Heilman and one of their high-profile outfielder prospects, like Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez.

[b_wiggy_66]

Link.

 

The Cubs could be as good with Zambrano as without him. It sounds crazy, but for as well as Clemens pitched a year ago, the Astros were only 10-9 in his starts. And the Philadelphia Phillies mysteriously started winning after trading their best hitter, Bobby Abreu. It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

The most likely way a Zambrano trade could work is the return on the trade itself. These types of deals generally benefit the seller, and a smart organization can use a bargaining chip like Zambrano to add strength.

 

Seattle traded a 28-year-old Mark Langston to Montreal for three pitchers: Randy Johnson, Brian Holman (on his way to becoming a quality starter before injuries ended his career) and reliever Gene Harris (briefly a closer in San Diego).

 

When the Mariners reached a contractual crossroads with Johnson, they traded him to Houston in one of the all-time best deals at the deadline, getting Freddy Garcia, shortstop Carlos Guillen and lefty John Halama.

 

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis? What if the Yankees, seeking another impact arm for October, would send you Carl Pavano plus money to pay much of the $22.95 million left on his contract and a couple of their best prospects, say, right-handers Humberto Sanchez and Tyler Clippard?

 

What could you get from the Mets? Perhaps a package built around one of their two best pitching prospects, right-handers Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and including Aaron Heilman and one of their high-profile outfielder prospects, like Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez.

 

As much as I love Zambrano I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Get a guy with potential as good as Zambrano in Santana, and get two studs in Wood or Aybar and Adenhart. Well worth giving him up and getting these guys to fill spots all over the field. I hope Jim wouldn't pass that up. I don't think the Angels would give up that much though.

[Outshined_One]

Link.

 

It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

Well, that's all the justification I need. Let's trade Zambrano!

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not for trading Z. I think we'll need him if we expect to win. But that package from the Angels looks awful tempting.

[Backtobanks]

Link.

 

The Cubs could be as good with Zambrano as without him. It sounds crazy, but for as well as Clemens pitched a year ago, the Astros were only 10-9 in his starts. And the Philadelphia Phillies mysteriously started winning after trading their best hitter, Bobby Abreu. It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

The most likely way a Zambrano trade could work is the return on the trade itself. These types of deals generally benefit the seller, and a smart organization can use a bargaining chip like Zambrano to add strength.

 

Seattle traded a 28-year-old Mark Langston to Montreal for three pitchers: Randy Johnson, Brian Holman (on his way to becoming a quality starter before injuries ended his career) and reliever Gene Harris (briefly a closer in San Diego).

 

When the Mariners reached a contractual crossroads with Johnson, they traded him to Houston in one of the all-time best deals at the deadline, getting Freddy Garcia, shortstop Carlos Guillen and lefty John Halama.

 

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis? What if the Yankees, seeking another impact arm for October, would send you Carl Pavano plus money to pay much of the $22.95 million left on his contract and a couple of their best prospects, say, right-handers Humberto Sanchez and Tyler Clippard?

 

What could you get from the Mets? Perhaps a package built around one of their two best pitching prospects, right-handers Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber, and including Aaron Heilman and one of their high-profile outfielder prospects, like Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez.

 

As much as I love Zambrano I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Get a guy with potential as good as Zambrano in Santana, and get two studs in Wood or Aybar and Adenhart. Well worth giving him up and getting these guys to fill spots all over the field. I hope Jim wouldn't pass that up. I don't think the Angels would give up that much though.

 

I agree on the Angels deal, but I would say no to the other deals mentioned. I also agree that the Angels wouldn't offer that much for Zambrano.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Mets deal looks interesting. I'd want them to include Milledge though.

[RichHillIsABeast]

It'd be pretty tricky to deal Z right now. If the trades fell through or the rumors reached the public or Z, we'd probably lose him to FA next season. He's pretty emotional and prideful.

 

I was all for trading Z when it was rumored he wanted Zito money and years, but if he only wants near Zito money for 5 years, I think we just have to take the injury risk b/c we can't wait for the prospects to develop in present circumstances.

 

I do think Z would bring a nice haul in prospects though.

[JC]

Any article with Carlos Zambrano and Carl Pavano's names in it deserves immediate dismissal.

[USSoccer]

This was discussed ad nauseum in the other Z thread, but Mark Prior being healthy would be one of the key preconditions to trading Z, and I'm not entirely opposed to it, depending on the deal. Z would bring in quite the haul, and if you get a top P and SS prospect, I'd think very long and hard about it. $15-20m for more than 4 yrs to a P with the mileage that Z has is pretty risky.

 

And the only way I'm taking Carl Pavano from the NYY's is if ARod is coming along.

[Mephistopheles]

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis?

 

Yeah the Angels are going to trade two of their best prospects and a good young pitcher for one year of Big Z. That's a terrible article.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

For every trade he mentions that benefits the seller, there are probably 20 that completely blow up in their face. No thank you on trading Zambrano. Why trade a guarantee for a couple of maybes?

[mg420]

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis?

 

Yeah the Angels are going to trade two of their best prospects and a good young pitcher for one year of Big Z. That's a terrible article.

 

if any trade like that were to be made, it would have to include a long term deal for z with the angels. i believe a simliar circumstance was discussed when the cubs were reportedly considering trading aram before the deadine last year (also to the angels if i'm not mistaken). that said, if the angels would give santana, wood & adenhart or mathis for z i would hope the cubs would consider doing so (especially if prior is healthy).

[Guest]

This was discussed ad nauseum in the other Z thread, but Mark Prior being healthy would be one of the key preconditions to trading Z, and I'm not entirely opposed to it, depending on the deal. Z would bring in quite the haul, and if you get a top P and SS prospect, I'd think very long and hard about it. $15-20m for more than 4 yrs to a P with the mileage that Z has is pretty risky.

 

And the only way I'm taking Carl Pavano from the NYY's is if ARod is coming along.

 

Ding, ding, ding. The Cubs can't afford to talk Z trade, until if and when Prior is healthy and pitching like a #1. I would more hesitant to start the season with a rotation of Santana/Lilly/Hill/Marquis/whoever wins the ST battle. Atleast, Z givces the Cubs a chance to have a solid rotation, just like Chris Carpenter does in St. Lou. So, if the Cubs DO decide to trade Z, it will be closer to the deadline, AND Prior being healthy.

[Guest]

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis?

 

Yeah the Angels are going to trade two of their best prospects and a good young pitcher for one year of Big Z. That's a terrible article.

 

The Angels have a boatload of young prospects, not to mention a deep pocketed owner in Moreno. If there is one team that can afford to trade a couple of their best prospects, and still afford to sign Z long-term, it's the Angels. Besides, the Angels would request the 72 hour window for negotiations. The only downside, Stonewall has developed a reputation for not wanting to part with any of the Angels best prospects. So you have to hope that Moreno tells Stoneman to make the trade.

[cheapseats]

For every trade he mentions that benefits the seller, there are probably 20 that completely blow up in their face. No thank you on trading Zambrano. Why trade a guarantee for a couple of maybes?

 

What guarantee?

 

Some projections have Z declining this year and drastically declining of the next five years.

 

We may choose to disregard those projections, but we can't just look at Z's numbers last year and assume he'll produce them again this year.

 

I would trade Zambrano for Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood.

[abuck1220]

 

The Cubs could be as good with Zambrano as without him. It sounds crazy, but for as well as Clemens pitched a year ago, the Astros were only 10-9 in his starts. And the Philadelphia Phillies mysteriously started winning after trading their best hitter, Bobby Abreu. It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

 

so the key to winning games is to not have good players...i'm on board!

 

i mean, if the phillies got better after dumping abreu, imagine how good they'd have been if they dumped howard! or howard and utley!

[A New Era]

 

The Cubs could be as good with Zambrano as without him. It sounds crazy, but for as well as Clemens pitched a year ago, the Astros were only 10-9 in his starts. And the Philadelphia Phillies mysteriously started winning after trading their best hitter, Bobby Abreu. It's baseball, and silly stuff happens.

 

 

so the key to winning games is to not have good players...i'm on board!

 

i mean, if the phillies got better after dumping abreu, imagine how good they'd have been if they dumped howard! or howard and utley!

 

I think he's trying to say, sometimes dumping ONE player not hurt so much. And in case the talent we get is so high, it might be a good move. But overall that was a stupid thing to say. .

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

For every trade he mentions that benefits the seller, there are probably 20 that completely blow up in their face. No thank you on trading Zambrano. Why trade a guarantee for a couple of maybes?

 

What guarantee?

 

Some projections have Z declining this year and drastically declining of the next five years.

 

We may choose to disregard those projections, but we can't just look at Z's numbers last year and assume he'll produce them again this year.

 

I would trade Zambrano for Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood.

Didn't those same projections once have Mark Prior steadily improving?

 

A declining Zambrano is still better than most pitchers. I'd take that over a couple of question marks that probably won't equal his success.

 

That's just me though. I never understood the whole trade your star player to make the team better philosophy. Yeah, he may have peaked last year, but just because he's not having as good of a year as last year doesn't mean he's still not an awesome player.

 

Would the Chargers consider trading LaDainian Tomlinson because he probably won't equal his production from this year?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

A Phil Rogers article I actually like for once. Of course, it doesn't mean the Cubs are thinking this way...

 

But a smart team should consider all its options, in the right deal, a trade of Z should be considered, absolutely. There's no such thing as an untouchable player, relative to the return it might bring.

 

Besides, I'm one of those that believes a pitcher's value to a team is fundamentally overrated in the first place. Even the best pitcher can only help you win 1/5th of your games. Look at Steve Carlton and the 72 Phillies as one example.

 

I love Z like everyone else, but he is not off-limits.

[SAMMYWHO]

For every trade he mentions that benefits the seller, there are probably 20 that completely blow up in their face. No thank you on trading Zambrano. Why trade a guarantee for a couple of maybes?

 

What guarantee?

 

Some projections have Z declining this year and drastically declining of the next five years.

 

We may choose to disregard those projections, but we can't just look at Z's numbers last year and assume he'll produce them again this year.

 

I would trade Zambrano for Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood.

Didn't those same projections once have Mark Prior steadily improving?

 

A declining Zambrano is still better than most pitchers. I'd take that over a couple of question marks that probably won't equal his success.

 

That's just me though. I never understood the whole trade your star player to make the team better philosophy. Yeah, he may have peaked last year, but just because he's not having as good of a year as last year doesn't mean he's still not an awesome player.

 

Would the Chargers consider trading LaDainian Tomlinson because he probably won't equal his production from this year?

 

That's not a fair assessment. LT is probably the best back since Walter Payton. Z is in a croud of pitchers his caliber and his age. The other thing that is sort of being overlooked here is he's about to become really expensive. More than Carpenter and Oswalt, cost vs production is a big part of it too.

[nilodnayr]

What if the Los Angeles Angels would deal Ervin Santana, one of their two shortstop prospects in Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, and either a young arm like Nick Adenhart or a big-league-ready catcher like Jeff Mathis?

 

Yeah the Angels are going to trade two of their best prospects and a good young pitcher for one year of Big Z. That's a terrible article.

 

The Angels have a boatload of young prospects, not to mention a deep pocketed owner in Moreno. If there is one team that can afford to trade a couple of their best prospects, and still afford to sign Z long-term, it's the Angels. Besides, the Angels would request the 72 hour window for negotiations. The only downside, Stonewall has developed a reputation for not wanting to part with any of the Angels best prospects. So you have to hope that Moreno tells Stoneman to make the trade.

 

Well, not exactly. The angels org is still very good (BP ranked them 3rd), but its fairly top heavy and has prospects that have graduated the last few years (Santana, Kendrick, Weaver, etc). The article proposes a possible trade including Adenhart and Wood, who are their only excellent prospects.

 

Plus, look at the angels rotation...a lot of other teams would be more motivated than the angels to clear out their farm system for Z coughmetscough.

[rchap24]

For every trade he mentions that benefits the seller, there are probably 20 that completely blow up in their face. No thank you on trading Zambrano. Why trade a guarantee for a couple of maybes?

 

What guarantee?

 

Some projections have Z declining this year and drastically declining of the next five years.

 

We may choose to disregard those projections, but we can't just look at Z's numbers last year and assume he'll produce them again this year.

 

I would trade Zambrano for Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood.

 

Come on now man, at least get a guy whos there best pitcher. Weaver is good don't get me wrong, but he made like 15 starts. I dont know how great he will be. I agree with the Satana, Wood, and another pitching prospect I would do that!

[Danny82]

But you know how great Santana will be?

[Cubsbaseballfan]

Ken Rosenthal suggests the Cubs sign Big Z to a 5/$80M deal.

 

...they need to sign Zambrano to his desired contract extension, and a five-year deal in the $80 million range ...

 

A five-year structure would allow for a sixth-year vesting option, leaving ample room for negotiation.

 

 

In other news, he seems to think that Steve Finley is waiting to see if an opening becomes available with the Cubs:

 

Free-agent outfielder Steve Finley is in a delicate position, trying to decide whether to wait for a potential opening with the Cubs or accept a job as a reserve with another club. The Cubs would need to trade right fielder Jacque Jones before they would consider signing Finley, and such an opportunity might not arise until the end of March. Finley, who turns 42 next month, probably would need to resume playing before then. The Marlins, despite their need for a center fielder, are not interested.

 

Rosenthal also seems to believe that the Rangers have interest in Kerry Wood. I don't like his use of "quickly" here... I don't think (at least I hope not) the Cubs are considering a trade of Kerry.

 

The Rangers, who might need another reliever if they trade right-hander Akinori Otsuka, have long coveted Cubs right-hander Kerry Wood. It's doubtful that the Cubs would trade Wood quickly, however, given the loyalty he showed by signing a one-year, $1.5 million contract when he likely could have received at least twice that on the free-agent market. Cubs G.M. Jim Hendry, likewise, remains loyal to Wood, who could emerge as a late-inning option if — ahem — he stays healthy.

[Laura]

Welcome to the forums, Cubsbaseballfan! :)