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Posted
this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

Collateral damage from giving away Ricky Nolasco for peanuts. Marquis most likely wouldn't be here if we still had Nolasco.

 

Nolasco as a starter 9 10 4.96 22 119.2

Marshall 6 9 5.59 24 125.2

 

Why would nolasco have prvented them from bringing in Marquis?

Nolasco would definitely have Marquis' spot in the rotation. Nolasco's ERA was somewhat skewed by a few meltdown games but the bulk of his starts were quite good. His season numbers will get a lot better if he can can cut down on those occasional disaster type games. More experience should help in that area.

 

Not to sidetrack the issue, but this is silly. Nolasco would have been another one of the arms that was trotted out to audition, but at the end he would have been just another "not as impressive as Rich Hill" No way Hendry would have walked into this year with two rookies in the rotation. He's trying to prove that he's learned his lesson.

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Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

you really think that no thought was given to locking up Z? Really? honestly?

Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

It really is. If you look at the budget crunch that looms in 2009 it's hard not to attach some major urgency to keeping Z. This is a team that has to do whatever is necessary to win now.

Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

you really think that no thought was given to locking up Z? Really? honestly?

 

I think there's an excellent chance Hendry assumed Z would take a discount like Ramirez took, not factoring in the fact that he wildly overpaid Lilly and Marquis, and Z was sure to notice this.

Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

you really think that no thought was given to locking up Z? Really? honestly?

 

Not as much as there should have been. Can anyone here justify giving 4/40 to Lilly or 3/21 to Marquis when you have a freaking future Cy Young winner on the staff entering the last year of his contract? Which was more important? Flushing money down the toilet by severely overpaying for mediocre talent or locking up one of the best pitchers in the league? Obviously, Hendry chose the former.

Posted
isnt the 2007 salary actually under budget? if thats the case, give him more $ this year and more in 2010 and after. there's some scary commitments in 2008 and 2009. and cross your fingers for a healthy Z.
Posted

Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

you really think that no thought was given to locking up Z? Really? honestly?

 

Not as much as there should have been. Can anyone here justify giving 4/40 to Lilly or 3/21 to Marquis when you have a freaking future Cy Young winner on the staff entering the last year of his contract? Which was more important? Flushing money down the toilet by severely overpaying for mediocre talent or locking up one of the best pitchers in the league? Obviously, Hendry chose the former.

 

It wasn't just Hendry. The whole market was nuts. That doesn't mean there isn't more money for Z.

Posted
FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

 

Another good comparison is the Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen trade. And Johnson was notably better then than Z is now. I think some people here are overvaluing what Z should fetch on the trade market. Like I said in that other thread, I would be ecstatic with Jared Weaver and Howie Kendrick...although that is purely speculation on his potential value.

1 yr of Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Posted
FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

 

Another good comparison is the Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen trade. And Johnson was notably better then than Z is now. I think some people here are overvaluing what Z should fetch on the trade market. Like I said in that other thread, I would be ecstatic with Jared Weaver and Howie Kendrick...although that is purely speculation on his potential value.

1 yr of Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

 

Cubs could include Jones and get quite the package from the Angels.

Posted (edited)
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

It really is. If you look at the budget crunch that looms in 2009 it's hard not to attach some major urgency to keeping Z. This is a team that has to do whatever is necessary to win now.

 

At last! A valid point. (valid, but not germane) Given the current budget 2009 could be a rough year to plug holes. With big commitments and a thin farm system assuming the budget doesn't increase significantly again, Hendry may have crippled the future. A Z extention to big bucks could be the final nail in the 2009 coffin (again assuming no SIGNIFICANT increase in budget)

 

That doesn't mean Hendry will let Z walk after this year. No way no how. He'll extend him, and we better start praying now for 2009.

Edited by Bull
Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

you really think that no thought was given to locking up Z? Really? honestly?

 

Not as much as there should have been. Can anyone here justify giving 4/40 to Lilly or 3/21 to Marquis when you have a freaking future Cy Young winner on the staff entering the last year of his contract? Which was more important? Flushing money down the toilet by severely overpaying for mediocre talent or locking up one of the best pitchers in the league? Obviously, Hendry chose the former.

 

It wasn't just Hendry. The whole market was nuts. That doesn't mean there isn't more money for Z.

 

I agree. Hendry's M.O. has always been free agents, then contract extensions. He's come through multiple times before on extensions, so I don't know why the free agent spending suddenly means he wasn't thinking about re-signing Z or that he is out of money. It simply means that Hendry feels that he has till spring training to work with Z, while he doesn't with the free agents, so signing the free agents has to come first. That may not be how everyone would do it, but it is how Hendry has done t, and he always has saved the money for the extension and successfully completed it.

Posted
I guess when I said there was some overvaluing going on, I was referring to Tim's statement in the other thread that the negotiations wouldn't start for him until Weaver, Kendrick, and Adenhart were on the table. I think that would be viewed as an unreasonable request by the Angels.

I made that statement because I have confidence in Wilken. I think that 1 year of Z with this team + (another chance to sign Z or getting two high draft picks with Wilken doing the selection) is better than trading Z for two of the Angels prospects alone.

Posted
wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.

 

It really is. If you look at the budget crunch that looms in 2009 it's hard not to attach some major urgency to keeping Z. This is a team that has to do whatever is necessary to win now.

 

At last! A valid point. (valid, but not germane) Given the current budget 2009 could be a rough year to plug holes. With big commitments and a thin farm system assuming the budget doesn't increase significantly again, Hendry may have crippled the future. A Z extention to big bucks could be the final nail in the 2009 coffin (again assuming no SIGNIFICANT increase in budget)

 

That doesn't mean Hendry will let Z walk after this year. No way no how. He'll extend him, and we better start praying now for 2009.

 

but in 2009 we'll be nursing a hangover from back-to-back WS championships! we wont even care!

 

/chugs kool-aid

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

It's on Hendry to create a market. If you can get either package, I'd pull the trigger today.

 

Even considering how good Z is the team could still contend this year if they landed one of those two packages.

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Let me be more precise...

 

I'd be working two separate paths at the current time.

 

1a) I would be working aggressively to get him signed to a hometown discount contract in the range of 5 years, $80M

 

1b) I would be working the phones with the teams that had a set of three premier prospects to get a trade that I was convinced improved the overall talent level of the organization

 

If neither of those paths bore fruit, I would complete the season with Z on the staff. If, in the unlikely event that the Cubs are completely out of it in July, I'd look to trade Z. I don't think that's going to happen, though. So next October I would:

 

2) work aggressively to get Z signed to a hometown discount deal

 

3) If that didn't work, I would offer him arbitration and take the draft picks when he signs elsewhere

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Let me be more precise...

 

I'd be working two separate paths at the current time.

 

1a) I would be working aggressively to get him signed to a hometown discount contract in the range of 5 years, $80M

 

1b) I would be working the phones with the teams that had a set of three premier prospects to get a trade that I was convinced improved the overall talent level of the organization

 

If neither of those paths bore fruit, I would complete the season with Z on the staff. If, in the unlikely event that the Cubs are completely out of it in July, I'd look to trade Z. I don't think that's going to happen, though. So next October I would:

 

2) work aggressively to get Z signed to a hometown discount deal

 

3) If that didn't work, I would offer him arbitration and take the draft picks when he signs elsewhere

 

That just about sums it up in a nutshell.

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Let me be more precise...

 

I'd be working two separate paths at the current time.

 

1a) I would be working aggressively to get him signed to a hometown discount contract in the range of 5 years, $80M

 

1b) I would be working the phones with the teams that had a set of three premier prospects to get a trade that I was convinced improved the overall talent level of the organization

 

If neither of those paths bore fruit, I would complete the season with Z on the staff. If, in the unlikely event that the Cubs are completely out of it in July, I'd look to trade Z. I don't think that's going to happen, though. So next October I would:

 

2) work aggressively to get Z signed to a hometown discount deal

 

3) If that didn't work, I would offer him arbitration and take the draft picks when he signs elsewhere

 

I don't even think the Cubs would have to offer Z arby because he'd be signed pretty quickly.

 

I would love to see the list of players that GM's would offer for Z.

Posted
Another point to note in the Johnson comparison is that he had a bad first half before netting three top prospects for Seattle. Whoever traded for him knew they were potentially only gettting him for a half a season, yet still there were teams willing to give up packages of top prospects for a pitcher having a down year.

 

Also, its not like losing Johnson (then Griffey and ARod) destroyed the franchise. Yes, losing Z would hurt, but it would not be the end of the world for the Cubs. I personally hope they would hang on to him until the allstar break even if unsigned to see where the team is. I cannot see any way thet Hendry would trade him before then.

 

The trouble with waiting is that the Cubs are unlikely to be out of it come July. It will be impossible from a PR perspective to deal Z in July if you're within 4 games of 1st. You deal him now, you can weather the storm of criticism if you end up contending.

 

Call Bill Stoneman. Ask for Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart.

Call the Yankees and ask for Hughes, Sanchez + Tabata. Let them know the Angels are considering the other package.

 

I don't think either team would bite, but if I didn't get the packages I'd simply hang on to Z and take my chances.

 

Define "take my chances"

 

1. Go to arby and let him walk after 2007 or

2. Take my chances that I can get him to sign a long term near Zito deal

Let me be more precise...

 

I'd be working two separate paths at the current time.

 

1a) I would be working aggressively to get him signed to a hometown discount contract in the range of 5 years, $80M

 

1b) I would be working the phones with the teams that had a set of three premier prospects to get a trade that I was convinced improved the overall talent level of the organization

 

If neither of those paths bore fruit, I would complete the season with Z on the staff. If, in the unlikely event that the Cubs are completely out of it in July, I'd look to trade Z. I don't think that's going to happen, though. So next October I would:

 

2) work aggressively to get Z signed to a hometown discount deal

 

3) If that didn't work, I would offer him arbitration and take the draft picks when he signs elsewhere

 

That just about sums it up in a nutshell.

 

that sounds good, i just dont want to end up with option 3

Posted

I'm torn on this one. I wanted Z locked up. I think it's absolutely silly that Hendry finds himself in this position after spending 300+ million dollars this offseason and Zambrano doesn't have a contract past 2007. That's on Jim.

 

Jim is probably in a no-win situation now because of it. If Arte Moreno approached Hendry and offered up Brandon Wood and Adenhart or Weaver, I'd have a tough time not making that deal. You stick Brandon Wood at SS with the rest of this line up and you may not need a Zambrano pitching every 5th game to win more games than you lose.

 

Realistically, I don't see Hendry pulling the trigger on a deal like that. I think he's made his bed and now he has to lie in it. Zambrano will play out the season and he'll leave as a free agent. The Yankees WILL give Zambrano what he wants. They gave Mike Mussina 17-19m a year many years ago, they'll do it again for someone of Z's caliber.

 

The Cubs will not be out of contention at the trade deadline, so deadline trades for Zambrano aren't going to be an option.

 

I like Z a lot. But, given a choice at this point, I would definitely explore a trade. I don't see Hendry doing it though. His job is on the line this season. His career as a GM is on the line this season. He can't afford another losing season, especially after spending 300+ million.

Posted
There not a chance in hell Hendry trades Z for prospects. Hendry has gambled his career on winning now. Acquiring prospects is the last thing on his mind. I also fail to see why Z would give us a hometown discount. He surely knows this is the payday of his lifetime and he has stated he wants Zito's deal and has backed up his demand with a threat to leave if he doesn't sign before opening day. I don't blame Z for putting the screws to Hendry. Z is holding all the cards and he knows it.

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