PECOTAs are out

[Geech]

Some notables:

 

Alfonso Soriano

.287/.349/.569

 

Derrek Lee

.288/.369/.527

 

Aramis Ramirez

.299/.362/.564

 

Matt Murton

.304/.365/.476

 

Michael Barrett

.295/.357/.482

[RationalSoxFan]

Ah, my eyes are too tired to navigate the spreadsheets. I'll just wait a day or two for the cards.

[Mephistopheles]

They are down on all pitching. Geez.

 

ERA's

3.79 Carlos Zambrano

4.29 Ted Lilly

4.24 Rich Hill

4.57 Mark Prior

4.62 Sean Gallagher

4.88 Sean Marshall

5.01 Wade Miller

5.00 Jason Marquis (roughly, i did a quick adjustment he was still listed under the Cardinals)

5.21 Donald Veal

 

45% breakout rate for Guzman, the highest among pitchers who are not in like A.

 

They like Pie: .288/.342/.480 and Patterson: .287/.351/.465.

[rocket]

what about jacque jones, cesar izturis, and mark derosa?

[RationalSoxFan]

They are down on all pitching. Geez.

 

ERA's

3.79 Carlos Zambrano

4.29 Ted Lilly

4.24 Rich Hill

4.57 Mark Prior

4.62 Sean Gallagher

4.88 Sean Marshall

5.01 Wade Miller

5.00 Jason Marquis (roughly, i did a quick adjustment he was still listed under the Cardinals)

5.21 Donald Veal

 

45% breakout rate for Guzman, the highest among pitchers who are not in like A.

 

They like Pie: .288/.342/.480 and Patterson: .287/.351/.465.

Think that's bad? Check the White Sox pitchers. Oy...

[UMFan83]

Geez, what an offense we would have if those numbers come true!

[Mephistopheles]

DeRosa

.267 EqA, though he's listed under Rangers: His equivalent triple: .269/.335/.421.

 

Izturis

.234 EqA, .277/.329/.357

 

Jones

.270 EqA, .284/.343/.473

 

Cedeno

.237 EqA, .270/.307/.400

[nilodnayr]

Some notables:

 

Alfonso Soriano

.287/.349/.569

 

Wow, ZiPS is about 100 points less optimistic on Sori than PECOTA

[oldstyle81]

unless Zambrano really sucks it up, i dont see him having a 3.70 ERA this year.

 

hell his highest was 3.66 in 2002

 

i also think Hill and lilly will be in the 3's and if Hill can pitch like he did at the end of last year, high 2's is possible

[CP_414]

Some notables:

 

Alfonso Soriano

.287/.349/.569

 

Derrek Lee

.288/.369/.527

 

Aramis Ramirez

.299/.362/.564

 

Matt Murton

.304/.365/.476

 

Michael Barrett

.295/.357/.482

 

I'll be glad to take every one of those lines from those 5 guys.

[wolf stansson]

Is it me or is Pecota more negative than usual this year?

 

Also, why are their predictions for Derrek Lee so low as far as pa's and ab's?

Is he not going to be fully healthy or something?

 

Also amusing:

Corey Patterson - .259 eqa, .258/.303/.411

Eric Patterson - .280 eqa, .293/.358/.479

[Guest]

Is it me or is Pecota more negative than usual this year?

 

Also, why are their predictions for Derrek Lee so low as far as pa's and ab's?

Is he not going to be fully healthy or something?

 

Also amusing:

Corey Patterson - .259 eqa, .258/.303/.411

Eric Patterson - .280 eqa, .293/.358/.479

 

Lee missed most of last year - I believe pecota is based on three year averages. Zambrano's high ERA is likely attributable to his declining K rate. I don't see EP slugging near .500 in the majors.

[Geech]

Is it me or is Pecota more negative than usual this year?

 

Looking at the numbers for Cobs hitters it seems fairly reasonable. If anything, it's perhaps a bit optimistic.

 

Also, why are their predictions for Derrek Lee so low as far as pa's and ab's?

Is he not going to be fully healthy or something?

 

I think that's because of his injury. There's not really any good reason to expect him to miss a lot of time this year, but the simulation doesn't know that.

[WrigleyField 22]

2007

1 .349 .569

2 .335 .421

3 .369 .527

4 .362 .564

5 .365 .476

6 .357 .482

7 .343 .473

8 .329 .357

 

 

I'd take that, although I'd still prefer to replace Izturis regardless of that semi decent OBP.

 

It'd be interesting to see an average of all the different projections and see what kind of lineup we might see.

[Geech]

2007

1 .349 .569

2 .335 .421

3 .369 .527

4 .362 .564

5 .365 .476

6 .357 .482

7 .343 .473

8 .329 .357

 

 

I'd take that, although I'd still prefer to replace Izturis regardless of that semi decent OBP.

 

It'd be interesting to see an average of all the different projections and see what kind of lineup we might see.

 

Well, first of all, you might want to remove Jones and add Erstad (.241/.295/.321, but he's a gamer), depending on how much weight you give the recent rumors.

 

The other thing is that PECOTA is pretty much state of the art when it comes to projection systems, so averaging them out wouldn't really give you better results. See this post for details.

[nilodnayr]

2007

1 .349 .569

2 .335 .421

3 .369 .527

4 .362 .564

5 .365 .476

6 .357 .482

7 .343 .473

8 .329 .357

 

 

I'd take that, although I'd still prefer to replace Izturis regardless of that semi decent OBP.

 

It'd be interesting to see an average of all the different projections and see what kind of lineup we might see.

 

Youre going to have to switch 5 and 7...it'll be nice for that OBP to go to waste hitting infront of Izturis and the pitcher. 343 OBP for Jones, wow.

 

What is Church's projection?

 

ZiPS has him 50 points ahead of Jacque.

[Geech]

What is Church's projection?

 

ZiPS has him 50 points ahead of Jacque.

 

Church is projected at an underwhelming .265/.347/.465.

[nilodnayr]

What is Church's projection?

 

ZiPS has him 50 points ahead of Jacque.

 

Church is projected at an underwhelming .265/.347/.465.

 

812 OPS aint too shabby for a pre arbi CF.

[A New Era]

Well our offense looks great (and I've always thought we'd be pretty good after the offseaons moves)

 

And assuming just for a moement that those pitching #'s are spot on. According to Hardball times, We've gotta go with these pitchers. .

 

#1 3.51: 3.79 Carlos Zambrano

#2 4.04: 4.29 Ted Lilly

#3 4.57: 4.24 Rich Hill

#4 5.11: 4.62 Sean Gallagher

#5 6.26: 4.57 Mark Prior

 

Hey! We've got a #1 and alot of really good #3's!! :wink: Though I don't project Mark Prior to be healthy all year, and I project a little better for Hill, Zambrano, and Miller.

Edited January 16, 2007 by A New Era

[Mephistopheles]

So Pie's 822 OPS should do then?

[A New Era]

So Pie's 822 OPS should do then?

 

With Churches .812 as backup! Does anyone trust Pecota's offensive #'s? Do they have a good history with either O or pitching? Or both? . . .

[Geech]

With Churches .812 as backup! Does anyone trust Pecota's offensive #'s? Do they have a good history with either O or pitching? Or both? . . .

 

Did you see my post above? PECOTA is pretty much the best around when it comes to hitting, and very solid when it comes to pitching. That being said, there's still a lot of room for variance, especially when it comes to pitching. I would think of these offensive numbers as good ballpark figures.

[Mephistopheles]

Pitching is just unreliable at best.

[A New Era]

With Churches .812 as backup! Does anyone trust Pecota's offensive #'s? Do they have a good history with either O or pitching? Or both? . . .

 

Did you see my post above? PECOTA is pretty much the best around when it comes to hitting, and very solid when it comes to pitching. That being said, there's still a lot of room for variance, especially when it comes to pitching. I would think of these offensive numbers as good ballpark figures.

 

Yes I did, on my 2nd pass of the thread. Thank you. I hope the O portion comes true. I have faith in Pie, but I find it hard to beleive he'll beable to put up that OBP when he is highly regarded as impatient and a strike-out machine, by many here.

[imb]

Zambrano's high ERA is likely attributable to his declining K rate. I don't see EP slugging near .500 in the majors.

 

 

i dont know what this means, his k rate has gone up every year since 2003.