McCarthy to Texas for Danks and Masset

[UK1679666180]

I like this trade for the Sox, while I wouldn't put Haeger ahead of McCarthy on any depth chart, I think Haeger could become a good btm of the rotation starter.

 

Haeger is the best knuckleballer since Wakefield.

 

Danks has a higher ceiling than McCarthy and getting a solid relief prospect in return adds to the value of this trade.

 

They could potentially have a nice young stable of arms with Broadway, Danks, Floyd, Gonzalez, etc.

 

I agree that they could potentially have a nice young stable of arms just like the Cubs had with Wood, Prior, and Zambrano and we saw what happened to that. This might be a great pitching staff in 2-3 years, but Dye and Crede will be gone, Thome will retire, Konerko and A.J. might regress and then what.

 

Also like The A's of the late 90s and the Braves of the late 80s.

 

They haven't given up much in the short-term for the long-term. They only thing I would disappointed in would be is an inability to upgrade at LF and SS.

Edited December 24, 2006 by UK

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The trade is such a push for me - if it was only McCarthy and Danks.

 

I really like Danks. A lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a curveball that BA has called a hammer since the day he was drafted.

 

He struggles early at new levels, but always ends up looking good in the end.

 

I like McCarthy alot also. In the minors he was DOMINANT, and he has the stuff, command, control, and size to do it.

 

The Sox also get Nick Masset, who has a good fastball and dominant slider. Not a fan of his control, and such though. Still, his potential actually forces me to favor the Sox on this deal.

[UK1679666180]

I also don't think the Sox are done, this looks like a nice deal to set-up another one.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

[Outshined_One]

I also don't think the Sox are done, this looks like a nice deal to set-up another one.

 

I would normally think that...but this deal bothers me in that respect. McCarthy is the kind of pitcher a lot of teams would really want. He has ML experience and success, plus he projects nicely. Maybe he won't become an ace, but he could become a very good middle of the rotation guy at the rate things are going. Plus, he's managed to stay relatively healthy. What makes him more valuable than Danks, Masset, and Rasner?

 

Danks bothers me. He has ace upside, but ever since his promotion from High A, his production has been suspect. His GO/FO was skewed more towards flyballs this year than in previous years. He also gave up more HRs (22). Now, his Ks have improved and his BBs remained constant this season, to his advantage. I just worry about a guy who begins giving up noticeably more flyballs and HRs as he advances through the minors. He'll be going to one of the most HR-friendly ballparks in baseball, to boot. He'll need another half season in AAA to get fully adjusted, imo. I think he'll turn out okay, but I have doubts about him becoming an ace under these circumstances.

 

Masset has good potential and should contribute right away. No problems there.

 

Rasner doesn't appear to be anything special. Not enough Ks, too many BBs, and a mediocre GO/FO rate.

 

I can't find much about Paisano. He's a 19 year old 6'1 165 lb OF out of Venezuela with decent patience and some pop in the Venezuelan Summer League. It's tough to project those guys, so he could make the White Sox regret trading him or he might turn out to be nothing. Who knows?

[UK1679666180]

Depends on what another teams values, maybe the arbitration clock has something to do with it. At this stage, Danks has probably has more value over McCarthy especially to a cost-effective team.

[TB_11]

I also don't think the Sox are done, this looks like a nice deal to set-up another one.

 

With the price of pitching so high right now, having two quality prospects will put Williams in a nice position for any big move he aims to make now or during the season.

[TB_11]

This move was driven by the contracts that starting pitchers have received this offseason. Williams knows that McCarthy is one productive season away from receiving a Ted Lilly or Gil Meche-type contract. Either he gets that season, and then loses McCarthy for nothing, or he loses McCarthy now, gets back two solid prospects, and hopes the pitching market comes down in later years.

Except that McCarthy has about 4 (5?) seasons left where his salary can be controlled either by the team or by arbitration. So unless Williams is planning for the 2011 payroll, I don't think that's why he did it.

 

Having two quality prospects, instead of one, will be very valuable to Williams when he plans out his next big signing/trade.

[cheapseats]

Cheapseats, what did you think of the trade?

 

My unauthoritative view is that the Sox got the better end of this trade. We'll see in the near future.

[NorthsideAvenger]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

 

No, and that's why I don't think the Cards would part with that much for a free agent at the end of next season (one who, as RationalSoxFan pointed out, is likely headed to St Louis as a free agent).

[TXCubsFan]

Given

 

1. the hype about McCarthy

2. that Danks is a Texas boy, whom the Rangers would be likely to keep if at all possible

 

Does this trade seem to anyone else on this board as a "change of scenery" trade for both prospects?

[Elrhino]

Given

 

1. the hype about McCarthy

2. that Danks is a Texas boy, whom the Rangers would be likely to keep if at all possible

 

Does this trade seem to anyone else on this board as a "change of scenery" trade for both prospects?

 

I think its more a case of timing. The Sox don't have anywhere to put McCarthy at the moment, but could need someone in the next year or two. The Rangers need someone who can contribute now.

[NorthsideAvenger]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

 

No, and that's why I don't think the Cards would part with that much for a free agent at the end of next season (one who, as RationalSoxFan pointed out, is likely headed to St Louis as a free agent).

 

Well maybe, the Cards won't add Rasmus, BUT I doubt it will take only Reyes. I do think Buehlre will be dealt, the question is...would a team like NY be willing to give up Heilman and Milledge for Buehlre (seeing as that was the going package for a similar pitcher in Zito) that also includes a deal similar to what Zito gets?

 

What I am saying is...I don't see Buehrle going to St. Louis JUST YET. I think the Mets will swooped in and offer said package of Heilman/Milledge for Buehrle and then extend him at a deal OF SAY 5 YRS AT OVER $11 MILL per. So, again, while Buehrle "heart" maybe in St. Lou, but I think his agent/MLBPA would pushed him into taking a "higher deal" then what the Cards will offer.

[nilodnayr]

Last year his BABIP was 40 points lower than expected, explaining the good WHIP. With a guy like that who puts the ball in play, you have to get lucky to do well.

 

Expected BABIP for knuckleballers is very different than expected BABIP for other pitchers.

What should it be then?

 

Here is what Wake has done:

 

Actual vs Expected (LD%+.120)

 

2002: 245 vs 300; 55 better

2003: 297 vs 327; 30 better

2004: 288 vs 256; 32 worse

2005: 265 vs 291; 26 better

2006: 276 vs 284; 8 better

 

He's done better than expected overall, but 04 was worse and 06 was pretty much right on. Should a knuckler's expected BABIP be LD%+.100, or is using LD% not even a valid way of estimating?

 

For comparison, here are 2006 stats for two other knucklers in the minors, both of whom are very close to the LD%+.120 estimation.

 

Jered Fernandez's actual BABIP last year was 308 vs an expected of 292. Charlie Zink's actual BABIP last year was 272 vs an expected of 265.

[nilodnayr]

Given

 

1. the hype about McCarthy

2. that Danks is a Texas boy, whom the Rangers would be likely to keep if at all possible

 

Does this trade seem to anyone else on this board as a "change of scenery" trade for both prospects?

 

I think its more a case of timing. The Sox don't have anywhere to put McCarthy at the moment, but could need someone in the next year or two. The Rangers need someone who can contribute now.

 

Don't have anywhere to put him? Like I said, this trade would have made all the sense in the world last offseason (when they didn't have anywhere to put him and the Rangers started off the season with major question marks in their rotation), however they just traded Freddy and have a spot in the rotation for him now.

[nilodnayr]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

 

No, and that's why I don't think the Cards would part with that much for a free agent at the end of next season (one who, as RationalSoxFan pointed out, is likely headed to St Louis as a free agent).

 

Well maybe, the Cards won't add Rasmus, BUT I doubt it will take only Reyes. I do think Buehlre will be dealt, the question is...would a team like NY be willing to give up Heilman and Milledge for Buehlre (seeing as that was the going package for a similar pitcher in Zito) that also includes a deal similar to what Zito gets?

 

What I am saying is...I don't see Buehrle going to St. Louis JUST YET. I think the Mets will swooped in and offer said package of Heilman/Milledge for Buehrle and then extend him at a deal OF SAY 5 YRS AT OVER $11 MILL per. So, again, while Buehrle "heart" maybe in St. Lou, but I think his agent/MLBPA would pushed him into taking a "higher deal" then what the Cards will offer.

 

Huh? Beuhrle is a FA after next year, if the cards offered Reyes for Beuhrle straight up that would be an amazing deal for the sox. One that is much much better than the deal this thread is based upon.

[nilodnayr]

This move was driven by the contracts that starting pitchers have received this offseason. Williams knows that McCarthy is one productive season away from receiving a Ted Lilly or Gil Meche-type contract. Either he gets that season, and then loses McCarthy for nothing, or he loses McCarthy now, gets back two solid prospects, and hopes the pitching market comes down in later years.

Except that McCarthy has about 4 (5?) seasons left where his salary can be controlled either by the team or by arbitration. So unless Williams is planning for the 2011 payroll, I don't think that's why he did it.

 

I believe he has 5 more seasons until he hits the market. For comparison's sake Bonderman just agreed to an extention that pays him Lilly/Meche $ in his last year of arbi (and his first FA eligible year). So if by one productive season you mean 4, then you are absolutely right.

[nilodnayr]

I like this trade for the Sox, while I wouldn't put Haeger ahead of McCarthy on any depth chart, I think Haeger could become a good btm of the rotation starter.

 

Haeger is the best knuckleballer since Wakefield.

 

 

Just barely edging out Jared Fernandez?

 

I love the knuckleball but it's gimmicky, and I wouldn't put a lot of faith in a guy's minor league #s using it. I understand the concept of translating minor league stats, but knuckleballers have proven to be the exception for DIPs, and I think this is another thing where you can't just look at his MLEs and get a good estimate of what he'll become.

 

No, it's better than Fernandez it has better movement and he can control it better. Unlike most knuckleballers he has some velocity on his FB and his curve is avg.

 

I think the Jared Fernandez mention was a joke. As in proof that knucklers don't make it in the majors. If Haeger has good control, then why does he walk a guy every other inning? Also, if he has a useable FB and curve, then why has he never posted over 7 K/9 in a season? I've never seen him pitch so I'm asking since it doesn't show at all in his #s.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

 

No, and that's why I don't think the Cards would part with that much for a free agent at the end of next season (one who, as RationalSoxFan pointed out, is likely headed to St Louis as a free agent).

 

Well maybe, the Cards won't add Rasmus, BUT I doubt it will take only Reyes. I do think Buehlre will be dealt, the question is...would a team like NY be willing to give up Heilman and Milledge for Buehlre (seeing as that was the going package for a similar pitcher in Zito) that also includes a deal similar to what Zito gets?

 

What I am saying is...I don't see Buehrle going to St. Louis JUST YET. I think the Mets will swooped in and offer said package of Heilman/Milledge for Buehrle and then extend him at a deal OF SAY 5 YRS AT OVER $11 MILL per. So, again, while Buehrle "heart" maybe in St. Lou, but I think his agent/MLBPA would pushed him into taking a "higher deal" then what the Cards will offer.

 

Huh? Beuhrle is a FA after next year, if the cards offered Reyes for Beuhrle straight up that would be an amazing deal for the sox. One that is much much better than the deal this thread is based upon.

 

Exactly. I don't see the Mets offering Heilman/Milledge even if their opinion of Milledge is lowered for a pitcher they will then have to extend.

[NorthsideAvenger]

This move REEKS of an organization that is to penny pinch. I'm sure Williams would have prefered moving Vazquez or Contreras, but didn't get the deal he wanted, as he did with McCarthy. This move also indicates that by 2009, the White Sox will have a new and cheaper rotation. So I am going to call it, I bet Mark Buehrle gets traded to the Cards for Reyes and Rasmus within 6 months.

 

Rasmus and Reyes? No way.

 

Maybe, maybe not, but do you see Beuhrle staying with the White Sox past 2007?

 

No, and that's why I don't think the Cards would part with that much for a free agent at the end of next season (one who, as RationalSoxFan pointed out, is likely headed to St Louis as a free agent).

 

Well maybe, the Cards won't add Rasmus, BUT I doubt it will take only Reyes. I do think Buehlre will be dealt, the question is...would a team like NY be willing to give up Heilman and Milledge for Buehlre (seeing as that was the going package for a similar pitcher in Zito) that also includes a deal similar to what Zito gets?

 

What I am saying is...I don't see Buehrle going to St. Louis JUST YET. I think the Mets will swooped in and offer said package of Heilman/Milledge for Buehrle and then extend him at a deal OF SAY 5 YRS AT OVER $11 MILL per. So, again, while Buehrle "heart" maybe in St. Lou, but I think his agent/MLBPA would pushed him into taking a "higher deal" then what the Cards will offer.

 

Huh? Beuhrle is a FA after next year, if the cards offered Reyes for Beuhrle straight up that would be an amazing deal for the sox. One that is much much better than the deal this thread is based upon.

 

Exactly. I don't see the Mets offering Heilman/Milledge even if their opinion of Milledge is lowered for a pitcher they will then have to extend.

 

Considering the new rules for draft pick compensation, I can't see the White Sox holding onto Buehrle for very much longer. Now, I do believe the White Sox will get a young player of a Milledge/Reyes caliber back in the deal, the question will be if they can get a solid 2nd prospect in return. But if the Mets/Angels offer a nice package, not to mention a very "lucrative" extension, you can't tell me he would prefer pitching in St. Lou for less money, MLBPA would FROWNED on Buehrle not setting up the market for next winter. I just don't see Buehrle going to St. Louis before Age 30, and the Cards may be leery are going after another "stud" lefty from the AL, considering how poorly Mulder pitched since he arrived in the NL. I know the temptation is for the Cards to bring home Buehrle, but St. Louis isn't Chicago, or even LA financially, and they would have to cut corners (ie continue to go after the Juan Encarnacions' of the world) to continue to build around Pujols offesnively.

 

Don't plus Buehrle into the St.Lou rotation, JUST YET.

[UK1679666180]

 

I think the Jared Fernandez mention was a joke. As in proof that knucklers don't make it in the majors. If Haeger has good control, then why does he walk a guy every other inning? Also, if he has a useable FB and curve, then why has he never posted over 7 K/9 in a season? I've never seen him pitch so I'm asking since it doesn't show at all in his #s.

 

 

 

Knuckleballs have the same grading scale and flucuate as comparing a FB or breaking pitch. Wakefield and Candy immed. come to mind as far as knucklers who could start in their prime and be effective and have better knucklers than Fernandez and better secondary pitches.

 

Haeger throws his about 75% of the time, that pitch when thrown at its best is on the btm edge of the zone for a strike or just below the knees, it'll never be a good strike out or control pitch. But, the ability to throw a mid 80s FB and occasional curve makes them that much more effective.

 

The concept that a knuckleballer can't be an effective pitcher is wrong. Like Webb with the sinker, it has to be good enough to not be able to hit when you know it's coming and throw diff. pitches once in awhile to throw a hitter off (his knuckleball isn't close to Webb's sinker as far as effectiveness).

[cheapseats]

Last year his BABIP was 40 points lower than expected, explaining the good WHIP. With a guy like that who puts the ball in play, you have to get lucky to do well.

 

Expected BABIP for knuckleballers is very different than expected BABIP for other pitchers.

What should it be then?

 

Here is what Wake has done:

 

Actual vs Expected (LD%+.120)

 

2002: 245 vs 300; 55 better

2003: 297 vs 327; 30 better

2004: 288 vs 256; 32 worse

2005: 265 vs 291; 26 better

2006: 276 vs 284; 8 better

 

He's done better than expected overall, but 04 was worse and 06 was pretty much right on. Should a knuckler's expected BABIP be LD%+.100, or is using LD% not even a valid way of estimating?

 

For comparison, here are 2006 stats for two other knucklers in the minors, both of whom are very close to the LD%+.120 estimation.

 

Jered Fernandez's actual BABIP last year was 308 vs an expected of 292. Charlie Zink's actual BABIP last year was 272 vs an expected of 265.

 

Smarter people than me have done studies on knucklers and BABIP. I don't have access to the articles right now (I'm traveling), but some analysts will argue that knucklers actually have a degree of control over their BABIP that "normal" pitchers don't.

 

Also muddling matters a little is that minor league BABIP numbers are usually a little inflated due to poorer than major league defense.

 

I really haven't followed Haeger, so I don't have an opinion on him one way or the other, although I believe he should get a shot at the rotation.

 

As to why there aren't more knucklers, that's a good question. Wasn't Boston trying to develop knuckleballers in the recent past? I don't know what came of that.

[Soul]

I seem to remember a certain white flag trade which had everyone scratching their heads, but turned out alright.

 

I also remember a few moves such as the Pod move, Uribe, and Contreras, which everyone also raised an eyebrow over at the time. Yet it yielded a WS champ.

 

Williams knows exactly what he's doing.

 

Time will tell whether he knows what he's doing.

 

Agreed. They were in a position to be very good with an addition to the roster here and there. They still can be, but if they don't make the necessary moves to be competitive this year, Williams is going to look pretty bad with these moves.

 

Detroit has improved their team this offseason.

 

Proof is the WS ring. There are no lucky WS championships. You win it, you've proven yourself. Cub fans may not like that because it's the WS, but believe me if the Cubs won one and people called it luck, we'd be crying foul.

 

So let's be intellectually honest with ourselves, and admit Williams got it done, so he gets the credit.

[nilodnayr]

 

I think the Jared Fernandez mention was a joke. As in proof that knucklers don't make it in the majors. If Haeger has good control, then why does he walk a guy every other inning? Also, if he has a useable FB and curve, then why has he never posted over 7 K/9 in a season? I've never seen him pitch so I'm asking since it doesn't show at all in his #s.

 

 

 

Knuckleballs have the same grading scale and flucuate as comparing a FB or breaking pitch. Wakefield and Candy immed. come to mind as far as knucklers who could start in their prime and be effective and have better knucklers than Fernandez and better secondary pitches.

 

Haeger throws his about 75% of the time, that pitch when thrown at its best is on the btm edge of the zone for a strike or just below the knees, it'll never be a good strike out or control pitch. But, the ability to throw a mid 80s FB and occasional curve makes them that much more effective.

 

The concept that a knuckleballer can't be an effective pitcher is wrong. Like Webb with the sinker, it has to be good enough to not be able to hit when you know it's coming and throw diff. pitches once in awhile to throw a hitter off (his knuckleball isn't close to Webb's sinker as far as effectiveness).

 

Thanks for the info. To clarify, I didn't mean that knucklers can't be effective pitchers. Obviously there have been a few in baseball. But thats my point exactly. There have been so few. Fernandez and Dickey come to mind as recent failures. I think Haeger is significantly better than both, but the whole start of this was RSF's opinion that Haeger will outproduce McCarthy. Regardless of the ERA's Haeger has posted in the minors, thats an extremely risky bet. For the Sox's sake its good that Haeger has other useful pitches that he throws, it will definitely keep batters on their toes, but no matter how you slice it, his BB rate is going to lead to big problems in the majors. He hasn't been hurt by putting a ton of runners on base yet, but I can't see how that will be sustainable in the majors.