Comparing the division

[oldstyle81]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

along with a hoarde of other players that saw significant starting in the cubs lineup, that shouldnt see any this coming year.

 

Replace with

 

Izturis - Career .295 OBP

Soriano - Career .325 OBP

Ward - Career .314 OBP

DeRosa - Career .331 OBP

 

League average OBP is around .330. I don't see how we got better OBP wise other then getting Lee's bat back in the lineup...

 

You dont know how they got better?

 

Before

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

287.5 average between the 4

 

After

Izturis - Career .295 OBP

Soriano - Career .325 OBP (not to mention his power)

Ward - Career .314 OBP

DeRosa - Career .331 OBP

 

316 average between these 4

[UMFan83]

It's still not anywhere close to league average. And since their starting pitching is still below league average, thats not going to cut it.

[oldstyle81]

Nope, I would have said well at least we didn't lock up 2 spots in the rotation with mediocre pitchers

 

And in the middle you would complain hendry didnt do enough and we run les waldrond out there to get hammered by the Cards

 

No I would have signed Ray Durham instead of going after a career .330 OBP guy with a career year at age 31?

 

So instead give it to a 35 year old who just got off a career year, really smart there.

 

 

You aren't adding anyone here other then Lee, which is where the other 5-6 win improvement comes from. BTW, Barretts career OBP is .328 not anywhere near last years .368. You might be guilty of being a Jim Hendry and only looking at last years numbers to assume future numbers. Yes those numbers should be weighed slightly more heavily then say like 2 years ago...but they cannot be taken as definite indications of how they will be in the future, especially when they are changing teams to different lineups

 

Im not taking last year by itself, barrett has gotten better and better in the OBP year after year, im sure you saw that when you looked up the stats, he has had a OBP of .337-.345 and .368 the past 3 years.

 

bottom line is that they won 66 games last year, had the worst OBP in the league (I believe) and had a really high starters ERA.

 

yes they were bad but the 2006 cubs did not care, The problem with the cubs in 06 was attitude. when you have players saying we would just role over and take the beating means they dont care. of course there is no way to find this out because there are no stats but im willing to bet the cubs lost 10+ games they couldve easily won if they didnt bend over and take it. You wont have Neifi Perez making 2 errors on a sac fly or bunting for 2 outs with runners on in the 9th. the cubs are better just because we dont have Mabry and perez starting everyday

[oldstyle81]

It's still not anywhere close to league average. And since their starting pitching is still below league average, thats not going to cut it.

 

because the rest of the division have great pitching staffs right?

 

Houston has Roy Oswalt and thats about it

Cards have Carpenter and Reyes and thats about it

Cincy has Harang and arroyo

Pitt only had 1 pitcher with a ERA under 4 and that was Gorzelanny and he only pitched 61 innings.

Milwaukee only had Sheets under 4.

[UMFan83]

Nope, I would have said well at least we didn't lock up 2 spots in the rotation with mediocre pitchers

 

And in the middle you would complain hendry didnt do enough and we run les waldrond out there to get hammered by the Cards

 

Crap sorry. I forgot Les Waldron was the next best option for the team and not people like Prior, Marshall, Marmol, Mateo, Guzman, Ryu, etc etc etc

 

No I would have signed Ray Durham instead of going after a career .330 OBP guy with a career year at age 31?

 

So instead give it to a 35 year old who just got off a career year, really smart there.

 

He has a career OBP of .354 and a career OPS of just below .800. His career year was a step up from an otherwise solid career. His second best year he put up .286/.364/.484. Derosa's second best year (over 100 games)? .263/.316/.383

 

 

You aren't adding anyone here other then Lee, which is where the other 5-6 win improvement comes from. BTW, Barretts career OBP is .328 not anywhere near last years .368. You might be guilty of being a Jim Hendry and only looking at last years numbers to assume future numbers. Yes those numbers should be weighed slightly more heavily then say like 2 years ago...but they cannot be taken as definite indications of how they will be in the future, especially when they are changing teams to different lineups

 

Im not taking last year by itself, barrett has gotten better and better in the OBP year after year, im sure you saw that when you looked up the stats, he has had a OBP of .337-.345 and .368 the past 3 years.

 

Won't argue that, but your original argument said something about 'adding Barretts OBP' to the team as if we didn't already have his .368 OBP when we were last in the league in OBP. So unless he hits his career high in OBP, he's going to actually be a downgrade to the teams OBP next year.

 

bottom line is that they won 66 games last year, had the worst OBP in the league (I believe) and had a really high starters ERA.

 

yes they were bad but the 2006 cubs did not care, The problem with the cubs in 06 was attitude. when you have players saying we would just role over and take the beating means they dont care. of course there is no way to find this out because there are no stats but im willing to bet the cubs lost 10+ games they couldve easily won if they didnt bend over and take it. You wont have Neifi Perez making 2 errors on a sac fly or bunting for 2 outs with runners on in the 9th. the cubs are better just because we dont have Mabry and perez starting everyday

 

No offense, but that argument doesn't really have any substance. You can't measure attitude, and while things may have snowballed last year, there is no way of proving that or quantifying it with some sort of number. Everyone loses dumb games from time to time. The 2006 Cubs didn't win because they had were last in the league in OBP and scored very few runs, while their starting pitching did not put up numbers anywhere near average. It is my believe that the Cubs did not address these issues enough to contend for anything other then a .500 record next season.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

But being the best team in the NL Central (which is the subject of this thread) wont amount to a hill of beans. Looking around all the teams in the NL have faults, but the Cubs at best are a .500 team as I see them. So say the Cubs win the Central with 84 (+/- 3 wins), it still isnt enough to get to the Series.

 

Players have been brought in, but other than names, none of them really address what the Cubs need. Guys who get on, and pitchers who throw groundballs. If Izturis is going to drive in runs with his glove, why are we signing flyball pitchers?

 

Like I said, Hendry is signing names, but not looking at how they make us better other than last years stats.

[oldstyle81]

No offense, but that argument doesn't really have any substance. You can't measure attitude, and while things may have snowballed last year, there is no way of proving that or quantifying it with some sort of number. Everyone loses dumb games from time to time. The 2006 Cubs didn't win because they had were last in the league in OBP and scored very few runs, while their starting pitching did not put up numbers anywhere near average. It is my believe that the Cubs did not address these issues enough to contend for anything other then a .500 record next season.

 

 

It only dosent have substance because it cant be put into numbers? There was a lot more than dumb loses, these were losses because they didnt care. you only have to be 4 year old to seet they didnt care about if they won or loss. it also didnt hurt that the idiot manager we had has no idea how to manage unless there is a roided up slugger on the team.

[UMFan83]

No offense, but that argument doesn't really have any substance. You can't measure attitude, and while things may have snowballed last year, there is no way of proving that or quantifying it with some sort of number. Everyone loses dumb games from time to time. The 2006 Cubs didn't win because they had were last in the league in OBP and scored very few runs, while their starting pitching did not put up numbers anywhere near average. It is my believe that the Cubs did not address these issues enough to contend for anything other then a .500 record next season.

 

 

It only dosent have substance because it cant be put into numbers? There was a lot more than dumb loses, these were losses because they didnt care. you only have to be 4 year old to seet they didnt care about if they won or loss. it also didnt hurt that the idiot manager we had has no idea how to manage unless there is a roided up slugger on the team.

 

Yup when teams lose they don't care, when they win they have so much heart. The problem with the Marlins when they started out 10 games under .500 was that they simply didn't care. Good thing they got that old fart Jack McKeon to ensure that the team started caring, otherwise they wouldn't have made that World Series run.

 

The 2006 Cubs didn't win because they weren't good....they couldn't get on base and gave up a lot of runs, not because they didn't care.

[A New Era]

I love it when someone says we are a .500 team at best, stating it as fact. That is all. .

[UMFan83]

I love it when someone says we are a .500 team at best, stating it as fact. That is all. .

 

You're right they could easily be a .450 team.

[XZero771679666304]

This is a piss poor division, and as it stands, the Cubs have as much, if not more talent than any other team in it. That is not an endorsement of the Cubs as favorites, or of Jim Hendry's job. That is just how it is. The Central sucks.

 

As of right now, the Cubs have as good a shot as any to win the Central Division.

 

Anyone who says the Cubs are "not even a .500 team" or "have no chance" is not being rational. Nor is anyone who would say the Cubs are run away favorites.

[UK1679666180]

 

 

as of right now, i dont see how anyone can say the Cardinals are any better than they were last year in terms of wins. Yes i know they won it all but there are 162 games to get there and i dont see them enjoying a central championship with 83 wins like last year.

 

I think they are...

 

I assume they'll get 2 starters back to go along with Reyes and Wainwright. Reyes and Wainwright (if healthy) will outperform Marquis and Mulder by a good margin.

 

Offensively, pretty similar, Kennedy isn't that much of an upgrade over Belliard and Miles, Luna, etc.

 

They'd be smart to let Duncan be the worst defensive OF'er in MLB and hide him in LF until late for his bat. I think he won't produce like he did, but will provide enough pop for the cheap to merit a platoon with him getting most of the ABs.

 

If they improve the club with similar pieces that are currently missing I'd put them slightly ahead of the Cubs.

 

But like most years, it'll be decided by injuries, who replaces the injured player, and unusual progression or regression over expected numbers rather than current talent difference.

[Soul]

The division looks shaky, but then again so does the entire NL.

 

I'd still say advantage Cards. And Houston's been down at this point in the offseason before, only to complete a few deals that puts them right back in it.

 

I still have a hard time believing the Cubs will go to the playoffs this year. But I wouldn't have believed the Cards would even make the playoffs on 83 wins, either.

 

So I guess right now there just isn't enough info.

[XZero771679666304]

The division looks shaky, but then again so does the entire NL.

 

I'd still say advantage Cards. And Houston's been down at this point in the offseason before, only to complete a few deals that puts them right back in it.

 

I still have a hard time believing the Cubs will go to the playoffs this year. But I wouldn't have believed the Cards would even make the playoffs on 83 wins, either.

 

So I guess right now there just isn't enough info.

 

Houston is in a bad way right now. Pettitte is gone, and I doubt Clemens will be back. Their offense is worse than either the Cubs or Cards, and their pen is regressing. Not only that, but either Jennings or Garland would cost them all their big trade chips (Hirsh and Bucholz), so they could only replace one of the starters that helped them to a .500 record last year, and neither of those replacements would be as good as the original.

 

I can agree with the Cards being good (decent) again, though.

 

But you're right, there isn't enough info yet. None of these teams are done yet, including the Cubs.

[UMFan83]

This is a piss poor division, and as it stands, the Cubs have as much, if not more talent than any other team in it. That is not an endorsement of the Cubs as favorites, or of Jim Hendry's job. That is just how it is. The Central sucks.

 

As of right now, the Cubs have as good a shot as any to win the Central Division.

 

Anyone who says the Cubs are "not even a .500 team" or "have no chance" is not being rational. Nor is anyone who would say the Cubs are run away favorites.

 

Why are they at least a .500 team. So far no one has been able to really prove that the Cubs have improved their 2 biggest problems last year much at all.

[Brian]

But being the best team in the NL Central (which is the subject of this thread) wont amount to a hill of beans. Looking around all the teams in the NL have faults, but the Cubs at best are a .500 team as I see them. So say the Cubs win the Central with 84 (+/- 3 wins), it still isnt enough to get to the Series.

 

Umm, Did you happen to catch the end of last season?

 

Not saying we are an 84 win team or that we would be able to get to the series. But the exact scenario you said that can't get to the Series just happened a month and a half ago and they won.

[jjgman21]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

along with a hoarde of other players that saw significant starting in the cubs lineup, that shouldnt see any this coming year.

 

Replace with

 

Izturis - Career .295 OBP

Soriano - Career .325 OBP

Ward - Career .314 OBP

DeRosa - Career .331 OBP

 

League average OBP is around .330. I don't see how we got better OBP wise other then getting Lee's bat back in the lineup...

 

do you really think career OBP is the best way to evaluate? shouldn't you use something a little more indicative of what the future holds? three year splits, last year, Zips? now I don't see the Cubs to be league leading in OBP, but I think they will improve over last year. I mean consider:

 

C - .341

1B - .337

2B - .326

SS - .275

3B - .340

LF - .346

CF - .333

RF - .337

 

I think a fair assessment is that the Cubs will remain the same or drop off a little at C (don't forget that Barrett missed a third of last year due to injury and suspension, but I do see some regression by him); get a boost dramatically at first, improve slightly at second, improve fairly dramatically at short (not that it will be acceptable); improve slightly at third (Aram may miss some time, but his replacement won't drag the numbers down as significantly as Moore and Neifi did for him last year); LF significant improvement whether Murton is full time or platooned; CF/RF assuming Jacque/Soriano a scratch, possibly improved with an acquisition. they should also get a boost in the ninehole with the addition of Marquis and a better bench.

 

however, the Cubs should also be vastly improved in another area that was not up to par last year and that is power. they were 9th in the league in HR and 10th in Slg. the Cubs hit 166 HRs last year. it is not unlikely that three players alone will hit 115. the Cubs were last in the league in doubles last year. I guaranty they will be near the top this year.

 

now the offense if far from ideal, but it is vastly improved over last year right now, without getting into what will happen between now and April and now and October.

[oldstyle81]

I love it when someone says we are a .500 team at best, stating it as fact. That is all. .

 

especially seeing no one wouldve picked the angels in 02, Marlins in 03, the White Sox in 05 and the Cards on 06

[XZero771679666304]

This is a piss poor division, and as it stands, the Cubs have as much, if not more talent than any other team in it. That is not an endorsement of the Cubs as favorites, or of Jim Hendry's job. That is just how it is. The Central sucks.

 

As of right now, the Cubs have as good a shot as any to win the Central Division.

 

Anyone who says the Cubs are "not even a .500 team" or "have no chance" is not being rational. Nor is anyone who would say the Cubs are run away favorites.

 

Why are they at least a .500 team. So far no one has been able to really prove that the Cubs have improved their 2 biggest problems last year much at all.

 

No Dusty.

 

Most of their OBP villains are gone. Sure Izzy is here, but he has far less company than before.

 

A full year of Lee.

 

Soriano may not repeat his .351 OBP, but he will probably be above his career average. Even if he isn't, he will still be Pierre +.300 OPS. Another huge bat in the lineup.

 

DeRosa >> Perez

 

Izturis (as sad as this is) >> Cedeno

 

Better bench (Ward and probably Floyd)

 

SP who will at least be able to eat innings, taking the load off the pen (which was enormous). You don't like Lilly and Marquis? Look at the combined numbers of Marshall and Co. last season. UGLY. Any kids brought up will be under less pressure.

 

A better pen.

 

No Dusty, plus a hitting coach that actually preaches patience. A good coaching staff.

 

More Barrett, less Blanco (unless Michael takes it in the sack again).

 

No Perez, Bynum, Mabry.

 

Murton has seasoning last year, probably not likely to repeat his huge slump (partially due to Dusty's tampering).

 

Ramirez not likely to repeat his slump.

 

Miller will be recovered, Prior might be.

 

 

Is this a recipe for a sure fire winner? No. Is it enough to contend in the worst division in the game, where the competition (save maybe the Cards) has gotten even weaker? In all likelihood.

 

And if people are going to dismiss last year's stats for guys like Soriano and Ward, they need to do it for guys like Marquis.

 

EDIT: Did I mention no Dusty?

[Soul]

This is a piss poor division, and as it stands, the Cubs have as much, if not more talent than any other team in it. That is not an endorsement of the Cubs as favorites, or of Jim Hendry's job. That is just how it is. The Central sucks.

 

As of right now, the Cubs have as good a shot as any to win the Central Division.

 

Anyone who says the Cubs are "not even a .500 team" or "have no chance" is not being rational. Nor is anyone who would say the Cubs are run away favorites.

 

Why are they at least a .500 team. So far no one has been able to really prove that the Cubs have improved their 2 biggest problems last year much at all.

 

Nobody can prove it, but I know for me I'm hoping Lee plays the whole year and that helps OBP a little bit.

 

I'm also hoping Piniella doesn't have violent aversion to the concept of walks, as Dusty did. I'm of the opinion that we would have been better in the OBP department with just a little better hitting concept, even with the same players.

[oldstyle81]

This is a piss poor division, and as it stands, the Cubs have as much, if not more talent than any other team in it. That is not an endorsement of the Cubs as favorites, or of Jim Hendry's job. That is just how it is. The Central sucks.

 

As of right now, the Cubs have as good a shot as any to win the Central Division.

 

Anyone who says the Cubs are "not even a .500 team" or "have no chance" is not being rational. Nor is anyone who would say the Cubs are run away favorites.

 

Why are they at least a .500 team. So far no one has been able to really prove that the Cubs have improved their 2 biggest problems last year much at all.

 

Nobody can prove it, but I know for me I'm hoping Lee plays the whole year and that helps OBP a little bit.

 

I'm also hoping Piniella doesn't have violent aversion to the concept of walks, as Dusty did. I'm of the opinion that we would have been better in the OBP department with just a little better hitting concept, even with the same players.

 

 

 

I think walks are over-rated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time they’re clogging up the bases for somebody who can run

 

Speed never slumps

 

"Everybody can't hit with two strikes, everybody can't walk," Baker said. "You're taking away some of the aggressiveness of a kid if you're telling him to go up there and try to work for a walk

 

Then people wonder why OBP was so terrible when the head of the team was saying stuff like this.

[A New Era]

I can prove why we are over a .500 team.

 

Derrek Lee all year

Soriano

Hill

stability in the rotation

Piniella

Gerald Perry

 

'nuff said.

[EastonBlues22]

I'm using average OPS+ and ERA+ splits over the last three healthy years...counting only years with 20+ starts and >100 games played. If none of those apply, I assume exactly league average (100 for hitter, 95 for a SP):

 

Cubs:

C: Michael Barrett 113 OPS+

1B: Derrek Lee 142 OPS+

2B: Mark DeRosa 83 OPS+

SS: Cesar Izturis 72 OPS+

3B: Aramis Ramirez 133 OPS+

RF: Alphonso Soriano 113 OPS+

CF: Jaque Jones 99 OPS+

LF: Matt Murton 103 OPS+

 

SP: Carlos Zambrano 144 ERA+

SP: Ted Lilly 103 ERA+

SP: Rich Hill 95 ERA+

SP: Jason Marquis 96 ERA+

SP: Mark Prior 135 ERA+

 

2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 4.04/6th

 

Average Team OPS+: 107

Average Team ERA+: 115

 

Cardinals:

C: Yadier Molina 62 OPS+

1B: Albert Pujols 174 OPS+

2B: Adam Kennedy 95 OPS+

SS: David Eckstein 85 OPS+

3B: Scott Rolen 142 OPS+

RF: Juan Encarnacion 97 OPS+

CF: Jim Edmonds 140 OPS+

LF: Chris Duncan 100 OPS+

 

SP: Chris Carpenter 138 ERA+

SP: ? [Miguel Batista 112 ERA+] ?

SP: Anthony Reyes 95 ERA+

SP: Adam Wainwright 95 ERA+

SP: Kip Wells 101 ERA+

 

2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 4.06/7th

 

Average Team OPS+: 112

Average Team ERA+: 108

 

Astros:

C: Brad Ausmus 67 OPS+

1B: Lance Berkman 156 OPS+

2B: Craig Biggio 99 OPS+

SS: Adam Everett 72 OPS+

3B: Morgan Ensberg 119 OPS+

RF: Luke Scott 100 OPS+

CF: Willy Taveras 75 OPS+

LF: Carlos Lee 119 OPS+

 

SP: Roy Oswalt 139 ERA+

SP: ? [Roger Clemens 159 ERA+] ?

SP: Woody Williams 98 ERA+

SP: Wandy Rodriquez 78 ERA+

SP: ? [Jason Hirsh 95 ERA+] ?

 

2006 Bullpen ERA/NL Rank: 3.94/5th

 

Average Team OPS+: 101

Average Team ERA+: 114

 

----------------------------------

Generally, there isn't a whole lot of seperation between the teams. The Astros have the biggest questions surrounding them because they need Clemens to resign in order to even have a shot. Their offense is the weakest of the three, with sinkholes in four regular lineup slots [CF, 2B, SS, C] and no prospects for upgrading any of them. Even if Clemens resigns, their rotation has the most questions....and that's saying something in this division.

 

The Cubs and the Cards appear to be fairly close at this point. Both teams still have some serious questions of their own to be answered in their rotation (with the Cards having more...their rotation isn't even complete yet). The Cards, in my opinion, have the stronger defense. Both bullpens seem about equal. It's close enough that it's probably going to come down to which team can keep its key members healthier... Given the injury histories of some of the star players involved, it could very easily go either way.

 

The Brewers are still statistically below the Astros...unless Clemens abandons ship.

 

EDIT: I bolded those that I feel are most likely to differ significantly from their stated three year numbers. Straight bold = increase, italicized bold = decrease.

[Balsa]

I'm not sure you could say the Cards bullpen is as good as the Cubs. They're not sure if Izzy can be back, and they've lost some good arms since '04-'05.

[EastonBlues22]

I'm not sure you could say the Cards bullpen is as good as the Cubs. They're not sure if Izzy can be back, and they've lost some good arms since '04-'05.

Last year due to his hip Izzy had by far the worst year he's had with the Cardinals. He's currently on pace to be ready for the beginning of the season after a successful surgery...I don't really think it's fair to consider him a potential non-factor. His return should improve the bullpen numbers. Wtih the return of Rincon, the available bullpen arms are:

 

Izzy: .207 BAA, .630 OPS against, 2.85 ERA, 1.20 WHIP 3-year splits

Looper: .239/.279/.305 vs righties 3-year split

Springer: .218/.286/.359 vs righties 3-year split

Rincon: .219/.277/.342 vs lefties 3-year split

Flores: .222/.297/.341 vs lefties 3-year split

Johnson: held lefties to .232 avg career so far

Kinney: career 1.00 WHIP, 1.89 BAA, very good MiLB #s

Thompson: career 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA, 2.34 GB:FB long relief

Hancock: career 1.30 WHIP, .252 BAA, 4.25 ERA long relief

Others like Falkenborg will also be in the mix.

 

IF Izzy is healthy, this bullpen will be just fine. One above average closer, two ROOGYs, three LOOGYs, a budding setup man who faces LHB and RHB both equally well, and two very capable long relievers to choose from. It stacks up favorably with most bullpens out there.