Comparing the division

[VanceJergins]

I didnt see another thread designated for comparing the Cubs with their division rivals, so I thought I'd start one. The Cubs probably arent a 100 win team, but I think they're easily the best team in the division as of now. Here are the probable starting lineups and rotations for the Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Brewers, as of now.

 

Cubs:

 

Soriano-RF

Murton-LF

Lee-1B

Ramirez-3B

Jones-CF

Barrett-C

DeRosa-2B

Izturis-SS

 

Zambrano

Hill

Lilly

Marquis

Prior/Miller/Marshall

 

Cardinals:

 

Eckstein-SS

Kennedy-2B

Pujols-1B

Rolen-3B

Edmonds-CF

Duncan-LF

Encarnacion-RF

Molina-C

 

Carpenter

Wells

Reyes

Wainwright?

Suppan/Weaver??

 

Astros:

 

Taveras-CF

Biggio-2B

Berkman-RF

Lee-LF

Ensberg-3B

Scott-RF

Everett-SS

Ausmus-C

 

Oswalt

Williams

Hirsh

Rodriguez

Albers

Brewers:

 

Weeks-2B

Hardy-SS

Fielder-1B

Hall-LF

Jenkins-RF

Koskie-3B

Clark-CF

Estrada-C

 

Capuano

Bush

Sheets

Vargas

???

 

If anyone wants to do some stat breakdowns, that would be great. But as it stands, it looks like the Cardinals are the only team that could really compete. We still have our question marks, but our rivals clearly have more. Of course the offseason is far from over, but we still have a lot of trading chips and money left. Right now i would rank it:

 

Cubs

Cardinals

Brewers

Astros

 

And maybe we can keep this undated when any of these teams make deals, or if the Reds do anything.

[wolf stansson]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

[Brian]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

 

 

shhhh, let us enjoy it while it lasts

[E.J.]

It's a given that Jocketty will do something that will help to improve the Cards. I'm less worried about the Astros. I think they have a lot of holes to fill and not a ton out there to fill it with. Brewers are going to be better this year if they can keep their guys healthy. All in all, it's a long way until spring training and a lot can change.

[cubs121]

It's a given that Jocketty will do something that will help to improve the Cards. I'm less worried about the Astros. I think they have a lot of holes to fill and not a ton out there to fill it with. Brewers are going to be better this year if they can keep their guys healthy. All in all, it's a long way until spring training and a lot can change.

im not sure what Jocketty will do.... but i think this is a pretty weak division if it stands like this.

[VanceJergins]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

 

Did you read like the 5 times I said "as of now"? I figured a plain reading of the text would show plainly that I know the off season is far from over. But there's not a whole lot left to put them over the edge. So I would just keep the lineups updated as the off season goes along, but thats just me.

Edited December 9, 2006 by VanceJergins

[wolf stansson]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

 

Did you read like the 5 times I said "as of now"? I figured a plain reading of the text would show plainly that I know the off season is far from over. But there's not a whole lot left to put them over the edge. So I would just keep the lineups updated as that off season goes along, but thats just me.

Easy there. I was just pointing out the fact that discussing this now isn't very constructive.

[VanceJergins]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

 

Did you read like the 5 times I said "as of now"? I figured a plain reading of the text would show plainly that I know the off season is far from over. But there's not a whole lot left to put them over the edge. So I would just keep the lineups updated as that off season goes along, but thats just me.

Easy there. I was just pointing out the fact that discussing this now isn't very constructive.

 

I think that came off more harshly than I meant it. BUUUT....more than anything it shows that the Cardinals and Astros more holes to fill will less to fill them with. I think its constructive to see where everyone stands now, and who has to add what.

[wolf stansson]

I'd wait until the Astros and Cardinals complete their 25 man before I started this thread, but that's just me.

 

Did you read like the 5 times I said "as of now"? I figured a plain reading of the text would show plainly that I know the off season is far from over. But there's not a whole lot left to put them over the edge. So I would just keep the lineups updated as that off season goes along, but thats just me.

Easy there. I was just pointing out the fact that discussing this now isn't very constructive.

 

I think that came off more harshly than I meant it. BUUUT....more than anything it shows that the Cardinals and Astros more holes to fill will less to fill them with. I think its constructive to see where everyone stands now, and who has to add what.

 

I never thought the Cards had a legitimate shot to get Schmidt, but when they finally officially lost out, I got a whole lot more pessimistic about our offseason.

 

Jocketty is going to have to pull off a serious coup or two before the off season is over.

 

This off season reminds me a lot of the pre '04 off season. Hopefully with similar results. It is disheartening to realize that in the '04 off season, Walt had an incredibly talented, power-hitting outfielder to deal that fixed a lot of our holes. We don't have that this year. If he wants to repeat, he'll have to deal some chips that we probably don't want to see dealt (Hawksworth, Garcia, Rasmus, etc).

 

A lot of heavy rumors from reliable sources that the Cards have a good chance to land Carl Pavano. That wouldn't be terrible, but we already have question marks in Wells, Reyes and Wainright. Don't really need to depend on another. Hendry might be handing out seemingly bad deals, but at least he is doing something to improve his team.

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

[VanceJergins]

 

I never thought the Cards had a legitimate shot to get Schmidt, but when they finally officially lost out, I got a whole lot more pessimistic about our offseason.

 

Jocketty is going to have to pull off a serious coup or two before the off season is over.

 

This off season reminds me a lot of the pre '04 off season. Hopefully with similar results. It is disheartening to realize that in the '04 off season, Walt had an incredibly talented, power-hitting outfielder to deal that fixed a lot of our holes. We don't have that this year. If he wants to repeat, he'll have to deal some chips that we probably don't want to see dealt (Hawksworth, Garcia, Rasmus, etc).

 

A lot of heavy rumors from reliable sources that the Cards have a good chance to land Carl Pavano. That wouldn't be terrible, but we already have question marks in Wells, Reyes and Wainright. Don't really need to depend on another. Hendry might be handing out seemingly bad deals, but at least he is doing something to improve his team.

 

Do you know if Walt is actively trying to upgrade any position players, or are they just focusing on pitching now?

[VanceJergins]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

[oldstyle81]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better. The biggest reason they failed in 2006 was losing lee and not having a manager who kept running perez out there

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running out the Minor League pitcher of the week. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases.

Edited December 9, 2006 by oldstyle81

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

[cubweiser03]

Nobody's rotation in this division is all that impressive. In fact no one in the whole NL has all that impressive one either. The Cubs have a VERY solid bullpen. Thats an advantage over the teams in the division and NL. Im optimisitic about the bats.

[VanceJergins]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs havent made some bad decisions, but I just dont see how you can say they're worse off than the Brewers and Cardinals right now.

 

Zambrano

Hill

Lilly

Marquis

Prior/Miller/Marshall

 

is better off and less of a question mark than

 

Carpenter

Wells

Reyes

Wainwright

???

 

As far as offense goes, the Cubs have Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano that are complemented by an improving Murton, and a solid Barrett. The Cardinals have Pujols, a huge injury risk in Rolen, and a rapidly declining Edmonds that are complemented by a decent Encarnacion, and a question mark in Duncan.

 

In my opinion, the Cubs are clearly the better team.

[oldstyle81]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

 

Then if we signed Zito who would get rocked at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out or Schmidt whos arm might fall off ,you would go and complain saying Hendry shouldve known better instead of throwing 20 million at the.

 

The cubs have added Derosa, last year at least he had a OBP of .357 i will gladly take that over Neifi Perez and his .266. Cubs have improved there. Would you rather have put Cedeno out there with his .271 OBP? Would you not have complained if Hendry didnt do something about the middle infield?

 

The Cubs added Soriano which has a .351 OBP and scored more runs than anyone on the cubs last year. He also had a .560 Slg which is 1 percentage point below Aramis Ramirez. Id gladly take this over scrappy who kept hitting the ball to 2nd base.

 

Now add barrett who had a OBP around 370, Lee who will have a OBP up there, Murton around 360 give or take ect. I dont see how anyone can say the cubs havent improved a lot.

 

 

of course their will be injuries but who knows who will get injured and when.

[VanceJergins]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

 

Also, I dont think Zito is $6-7 million better than Lilly, and I think we would have had to pay Schmidt a lot to play here instead of on the west coast.

[oldstyle81]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs havent made some bad decisions, but I just dont see how you can say they're worse off than the Brewers and Cardinals right now.

 

Zambrano

Hill

Lilly

Marquis

Prior/Miller/Marshall

 

is better off and less of a question mark than

 

Carpenter

Wells

Reyes

Wainwright

???

 

As far as offense goes, the Cubs have Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano that are complemented by an improving Murton, and a solid Barrett. The Cardinals have Pujols, a huge injury risk in Rolen, and a rapidly declining Edmonds that are complemented by a decent Encarnacion, and a question mark in Duncan.

 

In my opinion, the Cubs are clearly the better team.

 

 

as of right now, i dont see how anyone can say the Cardinals are any better than they were last year in terms of wins. Yes i know they won it all but there are 162 games to get there and i dont see them enjoying a central championship with 83 wins like last year.

[Jazz]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

along with a hoarde of other players that saw significant starting in the cubs lineup, that shouldnt see any this coming year.

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

 

if i read this i would think that the cubs havent signed anyone good, thankfully i know better

 

Lilly and Marquis may not be Zambrano and Prior at their bests but they are better than running around the Minor League pitcher of the week out there. If the starting lineup stays healthy they will score a lot and get on base a lot especially when you dont have a [expletive] in the manager position saying walks only clog the bases

 

How are they going to get on base a lot more? I don't see it

 

Lilly and Marquis are not great pitchers. Lilly is ok, but a number 3-4 starter at best. We would have been better off signing Zito or Schmidt for $15-20 million and then using Marmol/marshall/guzman/prior out there for the last spot.

 

Feel free to call me out in the season if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it and I am not going to get burned thinking the Cubs are better then they really are when the numbers don't say it.

 

Then if we signed Zito who would get rocked at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out or Schmidt whos arm might fall off ,you would go and complain saying Hendry shouldve known better instead of throwing 20 million at the.

 

Nope, I would have said well at least we didn't lock up 2 spots in the rotation with mediocre pitchers

 

The cubs have added Derosa, last year at least he had a OBP of .357 i will gladly take that over Neifi Perez and his .266. Cubs have improved there. Would you rather have put Cedeno out there with his .271 OBP? Would you not have complained if Hendry didnt do something about the middle infield?

No I would have signed Ray Durham instead of going after a career .330 OBP guy with a career year at age 31?

 

The Cubs added Soriano which has a .351 OBP and scored more runs than anyone on the cubs last year. He also had a .560 Slg which is 1 percentage point below Aramis Ramirez. Id gladly take this over scrappy who kept hitting the ball to 2nd base.

 

I would take him too but there were better options for the Cubs out there. His career OPS is .835. You are paying $17 million a year for a guy with a .835 career OPS. Think about that. Again, good OBP last year in a career (and contract year) when he was the only viable power threat on the team (meaning he was pitched around and INT walked). Now that he insists on hitting leadoff, he will likely get pitched too directly as they would rather him swing away and K rather then put him on for Lee and Ramirez. But yes, there was an improvement here. I'd say this will give them 3-4 more wins next year

 

Now add barrett who had a OBP around 370, Lee who will have a OBP up there, Murton around 360 give or take ect.

 

You aren't adding anyone here other then Lee, which is where the other 5-6 win improvement comes from. BTW, Barretts career OBP is .328 not anywhere near last years .368. You might be guilty of being a Jim Hendry and only looking at last years numbers to assume future numbers. Yes those numbers should be weighed slightly more heavily then say like 2 years ago...but they cannot be taken as definite indications of how they will be in the future, especially when they are changing teams to different lineups.

 

I dont see how anyone can say the cubs havent improved a lot.

 

bottom line is that they won 66 games last year, had the worst OBP in the league (I believe) and had a really high starters ERA. So we pick up a couple of players that are known for having average or below average OBPs over their career, and then pick up some starters who have ERA+ below 100 and we are supposed to win 24 more games (I don't care that St. Louis won it with 83 wins, 90 should be our magic number)? I am not buying it.

 

And this is without considering the Cubs will probably have a major downgrade subbing Jones for Lofton....but I can't comment on that because I don't know what major league players if any we get back.

 

 

of course their will be injuries but who knows who will get injured and when.

 

My comments are in bold

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

along with a hoarde of other players that saw significant starting in the cubs lineup, that shouldnt see any this coming year.

 

Replace with

 

Izturis - Career .295 OBP

Soriano - Career .325 OBP

Ward - Career .314 OBP

DeRosa - Career .331 OBP

 

League average OBP is around .330. I don't see how we got better OBP wise other then getting Lee's bat back in the lineup...

[wolf stansson]

Do you know if Walt is actively trying to upgrade any position players, or are they just focusing on pitching now?

I think they are set on Duncan being the full-time left fielder due to the lack of other options. Ideally I'm sure they would like to get rid of Encarnacion and turn Duncan into a trade for a starting pitcher, but I don't think they will find a suitable deal. The only position we needed to find a body for this offseason was second base and with Kennedy they've handled that so until they get one or two more starters, I doubt they worry about any position players.

[VanceJergins]

Just my opinion

 

1. Cardinals

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

4. Astros

 

You honestly think, as it stands now (thats for wolf :wink: ) the Cubs are a 3rd place team?

 

Yup, if that. The Cubs have done very little to address the glaring weaknesses that made them fail in 2006 (and 2005) including OBP and starting pitching in general.

 

Neifi Perez - .266 OBP, 236 AB's with the Cubs

Juan Pierre - .330 OBP, 699 AB's with the Cubs

John Mabry - .283 OBP, 210 AB's with the Cubs

Ronny Cedeno - .271 OBP, 534 AB's with the Cubs

 

along with a hoarde of other players that saw significant starting in the cubs lineup, that shouldnt see any this coming year.

 

Replace with

 

Izturis - Career .295 OBP

Soriano - Career .325 OBP

Ward - Career .314 OBP

DeRosa - Career .331 OBP

 

League average OBP is around .330. I don't see how we got better OBP wise other then getting Lee's bat back in the lineup...

 

Aside from Murton being very likely to improve his already good numbers, Soriano, Ward, and DeRosa all did significantly better last year, and its reasonable to assume at least of couple of them will be a little above career average...and even if not, thats still a decent improvement (+.03 for Izturis, -.005 for Soriano, +.03 for Ward, +.06 for DeRosa; extra .115 total) - especially considering the increased power.