Extending Zambrano

[Ivy Walls]

Insurance only covers the first three years, right? How would that affect an extension? I'm comfortable with 4 years, $50 million for Zambrano with some club options. I would also backload the contract and hope for inflation.

 

 

Zambrano is a $20M pitcher and will be asking for 5 years at 29 when he is again free he will see more, Zambrano is in an extraordinary position, I think it goes $20M-$22M-$23-$25M-$25M or $110M and that is before spring training.

[Andy]

15 years, $2 billion.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I've made my thoughts on Z well known.

 

Before this offseason, most of his value to the Cubs could have been in a trade to the Dodgers or Angels (for example) for young arms/bats.

 

I still think the same thing, because he is heading in the opposite direction of everything I want him to be except for K'ing guys. The walks are getting bad.

 

Z was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Unforunately, a guy walking almost 5 guys per 9 isn't going to be an ace for a very long time.

[cbbryan]

I think a 10yr. 252.5 Million will get it done! :roll:

[TruffleShuffle]

I've made my thoughts on Z well known.

 

Before this offseason, most of his value to the Cubs could have been in a trade to the Dodgers or Angels (for example) for young arms/bats.

I still think the same thing, because he is heading in the opposite direction of everything I want him to be except for K'ing guys. The walks are getting bad.

 

Z was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Unforunately, a guy walking almost 5 guys per 9 isn't going to be an ace for a very long time.

 

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career.

[cbbryan]

I've made my thoughts on Z well known.

 

Before this offseason, most of his value to the Cubs could have been in a trade to the Dodgers or Angels (for example) for young arms/bats.

 

I still think the same thing, because he is heading in the opposite direction of everything I want him to be except for K'ing guys. The walks are getting bad.

 

Z was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Unforunately, a guy walking almost 5 guys per 9 isn't going to be an ace for a very long time.

 

If he walks next year..................it's the second coming of Greg Maddux. Seriously, I don't want to go throught that again!!!!!

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of garaunteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

[cbbryan]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of garaunteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

 

Career wise, Maddux will probably have the better numbers overall. What I'm saying is that Z is as important to the Cubs as Maddux was when he left.

 

Furthermore, if Z stays healthy I see no reason why he couldn't be a top 10 pitcher all-time.

[10man]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of guaranteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

I think the walk rate is a direct result of Z going for more strikeouts than being happy inducing ground balls. i.e. he's trying to throw more unhittable pitches than ones that can be put in play.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of guaranteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

I think the walk rate is a direct result of Z going for more strikeouts than being happy inducing ground balls. i.e. he's trying to throw more unhittable pitches than ones that can be put in play.

 

Thats a bad thing isn't it?

 

Getting a K isn't as important as getting an out. And the fact that it's causing his walk rates to rise past very bad levels is not good.

 

It's forcing him to throw more pitches. Which is going to lead to him getting tired. Which is going to lead to him adjusting his mechanics to try to make up for it. Which leads to potentially straining a part on his arm. Considering his already violent mechanics, back problems, and weight problems, a serious injury could be right around the corner.

 

It's all conjecture, but theres more saying its likely than there is saying its unlikely.

[Sammy Sofa]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of guaranteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

I think the walk rate is a direct result of Z going for more strikeouts than being happy inducing ground balls. i.e. he's trying to throw more unhittable pitches than ones that can be put in play.

 

Thats a bad thing isn't it?

 

Getting a K isn't as important as getting an out. And the fact that it's causing his walk rates to rise past very bad levels is not good.

 

It's forcing him to throw more pitches. Which is going to lead to him getting tired. Which is going to lead to him adjusting his mechanics to try to make up for it. Which leads to potentially straining a part on his arm. Considering his already violent mechanics, back problems, and weight problems, a serious injury could be right around the corner.

 

It's all conjecture, but theres more saying its likely than there is saying its unlikely.

 

It's potentially also something very fixable if he's going for more strikeouts.

 

How many seasons does that guy have pitch virtually injury-free before he can be declared one of the rare "horses?" I'm not saying his invulnerable, but there's just as good an argument that he won't see serious DL time outside of a freak injury anytime soon.

[LuckyPup]

I've made my thoughts on Z well known.

 

Before this offseason, most of his value to the Cubs could have been in a trade to the Dodgers or Angels (for example) for young arms/bats.

 

I still think the same thing, because he is heading in the opposite direction of everything I want him to be except for K'ing guys. The walks are getting bad.

 

Z was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Unforunately, a guy walking almost 5 guys per 9 isn't going to be an ace for a very long time.

 

If he walks next year..................it's the second coming of Greg Maddux. Seriously, I don't want to go throught that again!!!!!

I agree, but i think we could get an absolute haul for Zambrano right now- If it were known we would let Z go in a trade we could fetch some really good talent, even though he is onl a year from FA- i personally love Z but there are some deals i would really have to look at if offered- Are there any deals you guys would move Z for out there?

 

My guess is you would have to get proven 1 or 2 starter plus a stud prospect and position player-prefereably a SS-

 

How about these deals?

 

To Boston for Beckett+Papelbon+Pedroia?

Anaheim for Santana+Wood+Colon?

To Yankees for Arod?

Dodgers for Penny+Billingsly+Ethier?

 

any deal you guys think of that you would let Z go in?

[Mark_R]

Sub out Colon for Kendrick and that's a deal.

 

Then sign Zito :D

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

How many seasons does that guy have pitch virtually injury-free before he can be declared one of the rare "horses?" I'm not saying his invulnerable, but there's just as good an argument that he won't see serious DL time outside of a freak injury anytime soon.

 

Alot, if theres one thing you never count on a pitcher for, its injuries.

 

ESPECIALLY with someone with as many warning labels as Z.

 

And about the control being easy to fix, tell that to Victor Zambrano, and to an extent, Kerry Wood. Z goes all out on every pitch, does it with mechanics no one calls pretty, puts it on weight easily, and has back problems.

 

Again alot of guys look like horses, but there are guys who do that for a while and then break down in their early 30' (Colon).

 

Put it this way, if Z was on someone else, and was becoming a FA, would you not build your negative arguments around all those risks I just listed?

[Sammy Sofa]

How many seasons does that guy have pitch virtually injury-free before he can be declared one of the rare "horses?" I'm not saying his invulnerable, but there's just as good an argument that he won't see serious DL time outside of a freak injury anytime soon.

 

Alot, if theres one thing you never count on a pitcher for, its injuries.

 

ESPECIALLY with someone with as many warning labels as Z.

 

But there are just as many arguments for keeping him around. I agree there are some things Z does that I wish he'd change, but you can say that about pretty much any pitcher out there. Even guys with "perfect mechanics" end up with DL time. I guess I just wonder where it would stop...why bother keeping any pitcher beyond the age of, say, 28? As time goes on the chance of injury is only going to increase, so should any stellar pitcher be moved by then because of "just in case?"

 

And about the control being easy to fix, tell that to Victor Zambrano, and to an extent, Kerry Wood. Z goes all out on every pitch, does it with mechanics no one calls pretty, puts it on weight easily, and has back problems.

 

But what we're talking about in the last few posts isn't an issue of control...it's that he's trying to strike more guys out as opposed to just letting them hit it. It's not something he seems to have no control over...it seems like he wants the k uber alles and as such is giving up more walks instead of maybe trying to just put the ball in play. Now this is just a guess on my part, but that's what it seems like, and given that strikeouts have been held in such absurdly high regard by this club, it doesn't seem like too much of a stretch. I think something like that is correctable.

 

Again alot of guys look like horses, but there are guys who do that for a while and then break down in their early 30' (Colon).

 

True, but Z is only 25. Again, where is the cut off point? Why have pitchers past the age of 30? 28? 26? Where does it stop. I'm not disagreeing with the idea of Zambrano, just the idea that it's a such an urgent race against the clock. Yeah, he's had back pains...not a good sign, but pitchers get aches and pain. It's part of being a pitcher. It would be one thing if he was missing significant time for those pains or anything else, but he's not. Bottom line, pitchers with his talent and apparent stamina are a rare breed...what are the odds the Cubs trade him "smart" and get the value in return? Unless you're getting someone along the lines of Cabrera or even Pujols, it's a massive risk. You could get a ton of prospects, but how many of them are going to actually pan out? How many of them could potentially be felled by these potential injuries?

 

Put it this way, if Z was on someone else, and was becoming a FA, would you not build your negative arguments around all those risks I just listed?

 

I'd still want him. I'm sorry, it would be foolish to turn away from a pitcher like that. Yeah, it's a gamble, but any pitcher is potentially a gamble. Again, look at Mark "perfect mechanics" Prior. Sometimes you need to take those chances.

 

I'm not opposed to the idea of trading Zambrano for a big gain. Sign him to a 5 year extension and trading him when he's about 28 for a quality return is something that would be very do-able if done smart. I just don't see him breaking down by then. I could be wrong, but we've seen him stand up to the wear and tear for over 3 years now. I'm willing to take that gamble. This is a guy you can anchor your pitching staff around for years to come.

[DivineBovine]

If Matzusaka is worth 6/103, I'm scared to think what Zambrano is worth. He might ask for a $150 million deal.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If Matzusaka is worth 6/103, I'm scared to think what Zambrano is worth. He might ask for a $150 million deal.

 

Mats didn't get 51 of that.

[A New Era]

His walk rate went down for four years in a row until this past year. It's not like he's been on a steady downward slide - his peripherals in 2005 were the best of his career

 

True, which makes the walk rate going up even more worrisome

 

A sign of him being overworked?

 

Much more likely than a sign of garaunteed health and dominance.

 

And as far as Z = Maddux, how likely is it that Z becomes one of the top 5 pitchers of all time? Cause Maddux is right behind Clemens in my mind.

 

Maybe working with a manager like Piniella. Who has stressed very loudly that you "DON'T WALK GUYS". Perhaps he can help Z cut down those walks!?

 

Yes I know I'm supposed to be gone for 2 months. I'm going I'M GOING!

[UBlink]

If Matzusaka is worth 6/103, I'm scared to think what Zambrano is worth. He might ask for a $150 million deal.

 

Mats didn't get 51 of that.

 

The fact that Mats didn't get all the money doesn't negate the fact that Boston must think he's worth the whole $103 million, since that's how much he cost them.

[Backtobanks]

If Matzusaka is worth 6/103, I'm scared to think what Zambrano is worth. He might ask for a $150 million deal.

 

Mats didn't get 51 of that.

 

The fact that Mats didn't get all the money doesn't negate the fact that Boston must think he's worth the whole $103 million, since that's how much he cost them.

 

I would think that at least $20-30 million was spent keeping him away from the Yankees.

[Soul]

Cubs will sign Zambrano. I have no doubt about this. Honestly, any talk of a "budget" and "Cubs" is silly. There's no budget associated with this team, other than some self-imposed "we'd rather not go over this much" type of limit.

 

The money's there. I'm not worried.

[C.C.]

Cubs will sign Zambrano. I have no doubt about this. Honestly, any talk of a "budget" and "Cubs" is silly. There's no budget associated with this team, other than some self-imposed "we'd rather not go over this much" type of limit.

 

The money's there. I'm not worried.

 

I agree. Zambrano loves it here and the Cubs love to have him there. They will get it done. They haven't let a big FA walk since Maddux.

[goonys evil twin]

Cubs will sign Zambrano. I have no doubt about this. Honestly, any talk of a "budget" and "Cubs" is silly. There's no budget associated with this team, other than some self-imposed "we'd rather not go over this much" type of limit.

 

The money's there. I'm not worried.

 

That's what a budget is.

[fibro]

Buste Onley comments on Z and the possibilty of him being a free agent next year.

There is wide-ranging speculation on what Barry Zito will get in this market in the next few weeks, with executives guessing somewhere from $75 million to $100 million. But whatever Zito gets, Zambrano could -- and should -- ask for more, considering that at 25 years old, he's younger than Zito, and more dominant. If he were to opt for free agency next fall, he would be the focus of the biggest bidding war for a pitcher in baseball history. The Red Sox might be looking to replace Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield, the Yankees will have tons of money to spend with Randy Johnson and others set to drop off their payroll, and the Mets will still need a frontline-type starter. All of the big-market teams will be in play, plus the Cubs.

 

So Chicago would be well-served to hand a blank check to Zambrano now, before Zito signs, because whatever seems outrageous now will look like a bargain next fall.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2706175&name=olney_buster

 

Must be an insider.

[Mark Priors Calves]

please, please extend Z in spring training.