Cubs sign Soriano

[don_kessinger_was_good]

No on Drew, he's not reliable enough.

 

Trade Jones (anywhere!) to make room for Carlos Lee in LF, and put Matt Murton in RF and Fonzie in CF. That is my game plan/wish.

 

Lugo doesn't thrill me, I'd rather put the money towards Schmidt or Hudson. If you add C Lee to your lineup, the Cubs would be perfectly fine with Izzy, or perhaps, an Izzy/Theriot platoon, at SS and batting 8th.

 

Very pumped on the Soriano deal, for once, the Cubs are acting like the big market team that they are. It should be the Mets, Cubs and maybe Dodgers ruling the NL every year, just as it is with Boston and the Yankees in NY. Time for the big dogs to pee in the tall grass. Or something.

[Guest]

Didn't some of the game threads reach this length in 3 1/2 hours?

Sigh. Fine. Game threads are out.

The only other things that could compete are the Nomar and Choi/Lee trade threads.

[A New Era]

Soriano is overpaid yes. But too many people are BANKING on Soriano posting 2004/2005 #'s. The thing is, we are getting another great SLUGGER that will look really good in our line-up. We now have 3 bonified "big bats" with Lee, Ram, and Soriano. And we should all be happy.. .

 

ARAM carreer OPS - .825

SORI carreer OPS - .835

 

ARAM carreer SLG - .493

SORI career SLG - .510

 

ARAMS 2001-2006 OPS

.886

.666

.789

.951

.926

.913

 

SORIS 2001-2006 OPS

.736

.879

.863

.808

.821

.911

 

Is he gonna repeat 2006? None of us know. But I don't see a downward trend since he improved a bit in 2005. If you want to use trends I'd predict he falls between '05 and '06 at somewhere around .860 OPS. Do I mind that the Cubs overspent for that? Not if it brings us to the World Series.

[Careless]

Didn't some of the game threads reach this length in 3 1/2 hours?

we had a bears thread last week get 90 pages in 3 hours

[nilodnayr]

1000+ posts in eight and a half hours. Sweet.

 

New land speed record?

Yeah, I suspect the only thing that comes close are the '03 playoff game threads.

 

No way, had to be sammy day.

[Banedon]

Didn't some of the game threads reach this length in 3 1/2 hours?

Sigh. Fine. Game threads are out.

 

In that case, the only competition I could think of would be the Maddux signing thread, or the Nomar trade thread.

[rjchapma]

oh im not positive about the season, but when we finally sign a big name guy who will probably help our team you have to be somewhat positive. You guys need to stop talking about Drew were not going to get him and just hope we continue to make some moves and get some pitchers.

[ChiCubsFan]

I just think you guys are way to negative about everything. Either way you guys would have been upset even if we had signed Drew or if Soriano plays up to his contract.

 

just stop talking (writing, typing, whatever)

[1908]

Didn't some of the game threads reach this length in 3 1/2 hours?

Sigh. Fine. Game threads are out.

The only other things that could compete are the Nomar and Choi/Lee trade threads.

Probably right.

 

And most game threads start well before game time these days, and last well after the game's over. This is an impressive pace.

[Careless]

Soriano is overpaid yes. But too many people are BANKING on Soriano posting 2004/2005 #'s. The thing is, we are getting another great SLUGGER that will look really good in our line-up. We now have 3 bonified "big bats" with Lee, Ram, and Soriano. And we should all be happy.. .

 

ARAM carreer OPS - .825

SORI carreer OPS - .835

 

ARAM carreer SLG - .493

SORI career SLG - .510

 

ARAMS 2001-2006 OPS

.886

.666

.789

.951

.926

.913

 

SORIS 2001-2006 OPS

.736

.879

.863

.808

.821

.911

 

Is he gonna repeat 2006? None of us know. But I don't see a downward trend since he improved a bit in 2005. If you want to use trends I'd predict he falls between '05 and '06 at somewhere around .860 OPS. Do I mind that the Cubs overspent for that? Not if it brings us to the World Series.

Here are some numbers. here are some other numbers. here are the numbers that show why my first sets of numbers are meaningless.

 

nice post

[A New Era]

Very pumped on the Soriano deal, for once, the Cubs are acting like the big market team that they are. It should be the Mets, Cubs and maybe Dodgers ruling the NL every year, just as it is with Boston and the Yankees in NY. Time for the big dogs to pee in the tall grass. Or something.

 

I'm very pumped too. I had to quote this. Because I agree completely. This is how the Cubs should be every damn year. It's so good to feel like a big market team again!!

[Guest]

Didn't some of the game threads reach this length in 3 1/2 hours?

Sigh. Fine. Game threads are out.

The only other things that could compete are the Nomar and Choi/Lee trade threads.

Probably right.

 

And most game threads start well before game time these days, and last well after the game's over. This is an impressive pace.

I'm impressed with the way the board has handled things. I think the upgrades are working.

 

 

(desperately seeks wood to knock upon)

[A New Era]

Soriano is overpaid yes. But too many people are BANKING on Soriano posting 2004/2005 #'s. The thing is, we are getting another great SLUGGER that will look really good in our line-up. We now have 3 bonified "big bats" with Lee, Ram, and Soriano. And we should all be happy.. .

 

ARAM carreer OPS - .825

SORI carreer OPS - .835

 

ARAM carreer SLG - .493

SORI career SLG - .510

 

ARAMS 2001-2006 OPS

.886

.666

.789

.951

.926

.913

 

SORIS 2001-2006 OPS

.736

.879

.863

.808

.821

.911

 

Is he gonna repeat 2006? None of us know. But I don't see a downward trend since he improved a bit in 2005. If you want to use trends I'd predict he falls between '05 and '06 at somewhere around .860 OPS. Do I mind that the Cubs overspent for that? Not if it brings us to the World Series.

Here are some numbers. here are some other numbers. here are the numbers that show why my first sets of numbers are meaningless.

 

nice post

 

I felt left out with all of the other meaningless #'s posts.

[Mephistopheles]

And what qualitative rationale do you have that Drew is regressing and Soriano is progressing? And you are right, credibility weighting should be applied to the three years, not a straight average since after all the most recent the experience, the better the predictor.

 

Most recent year= 45%

Previous year =35%

2nd previous year =25%

 

 

it wasn't a three year straight average

 

I averaged three variables. 2005, 2006 and then their PECOTA projection of 2007 (which is going to be used in the new PECOTAs for regression purposes)

 

i can do a weighted of the last two. weighting 2006 as 50%, 2005 as 25% and their 2007 projection as 25%.

 

.272 Lugo

.291 Soriano

.311 Drew

.226 Izturis (i threw out his 06 due to small sample size)

.252 Pie

 

we get:

 

+34.4 Izturis ----> Lugo

+33.2 Pie ----> Soriano

+46.2 Pie ----> JD Drew for 122 games

 

How about this question: how large would the payroll have to grow to in order for your to feel this was a positive move? If the Cubs were still able to go out and get Lugo to upgrade at SS and upgrade the pitching, would you then feel differently about this move?

 

Quite a bit. They could still break up the 17 mil theyre giving up and give 10 or so to Lugo and then split the other 11 mil between two decent 2Bers and CFers and easily come out better.

 

Well if they signed Lugo too, of course. But at that point what about DeRosa at 2B to Ray Durham? It's a cheaper upgrade. Using the same analysis as I used above

 

+27.8 Mark DeRosa ----> Durham

+36.0 Cubs 2006 2B ----> Durham

 

Since Soriano + DeRosa costs about 21 mil, Durham wants 9 if i rememeber correctly. So doing that and we can still spend 12 million at CF. Say five million of that is on Dave Roberts (+22.6 runs). Roberts + Durham would be over fifty runs what we had last season and probably would cost 7 million dollars less to pump into our rotation, or taking on a contract in RF for Jacque Jones.

 

The Cubs have so many holes, spending all your resources to plug one isn't efficient.

Edited November 20, 2006 by Mephistopheles

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

No on Drew, he's not reliable enough.

 

Trade Jones (anywhere!) to make room for Carlos Lee in LF, and put Matt Murton in RF and Fonzie in CF. That is my game plan/wish.

 

Lugo doesn't thrill me, I'd rather put the money towards Schmidt or Hudson. If you add C Lee to your lineup, the Cubs would be perfectly fine with Izzy, or perhaps, an Izzy/Theriot platoon, at SS and batting 8th.

 

Very pumped on the Soriano deal, for once, the Cubs are acting like the big market team that they are. It should be the Mets, Cubs and maybe Dodgers ruling the NL every year, just as it is with Boston and the Yankees in NY. Time for the big dogs to pee in the tall grass. Or something.

 

POST OF THE YEAR! Nice work, I completely agree with everything you typed!

[Illini Iceman]

Hendry has every reason from a career standpoint to prefer Soriano. A lot of the failure of the Cubs to win in the past few years has been injuries to "the core". Even if Hendry preferred Drew to Soriano my expectation would be that he would lean toward signing in Soriano. Their production is not much different but Drew definitely has a reputation as being a guy that is injured a lot. If Hendry signs him and he gets hurt while the Cubs crash and burn he will be accused industry wide as not having learned his lesson and therefore not doing a competent job. The fact that a bunch of stat guys on a message board would give him the thumbs up would not save his job. He can't take the gamble because if he loses it probably costs him his career.

[Shavo]

I just think you guys are way to negative about everything. Either way you guys would have been upset even if we had signed Drew or if Soriano plays up to his contract.

 

just stop talking (writing, typing, whatever)

 

You aren't a mod, so who are you to say that?

[rjchapma]

I just think you guys are way to negative about everything. Either way you guys would have been upset even if we had signed Drew or if Soriano plays up to his contract.

 

just stop talking (writing, typing, whatever)

 

Stop being a and listen to other peoples opinions whether they post statistics or revise there posts.

[Electron Blue]

Numbers wise you guys have made your point im not denying that, but It was my opinion and I think it was a very good signing.

 

rjchapma: needs to realize that his opinions will never change the minds of the people he's talking to (the numbers guys).

 

everyone talking to rjchapma: needs to realize the inverse of the above-statement.

[da bears]

Well this thread cetainly has taken an interesting turn.

[ConstableRabbit]

I just think you guys are way to negative about everything. Either way you guys would have been upset even if we had signed Drew or if Soriano plays up to his contract.

 

just stop talking (writing, typing, whatever)

 

Ehh, he's made some pretty awful posts, but this one isn't completely unfounded.

 

Of any of the aformentioned posts, this one least deserves to be criticized.

[baseball7897]

I have been laughing so hard reading these posts. Soriano not a good player? Soriano overrated?

[rjchapma]

No on Drew, he's not reliable enough.

 

Trade Jones (anywhere!) to make room for Carlos Lee in LF, and put Matt Murton in RF and Fonzie in CF. That is my game plan/wish.

 

Lugo doesn't thrill me, I'd rather put the money towards Schmidt or Hudson. If you add C Lee to your lineup, the Cubs would be perfectly fine with Izzy, or perhaps, an Izzy/Theriot platoon, at SS and batting 8th.

 

Very pumped on the Soriano deal, for once, the Cubs are acting like the big market team that they are. It should be the Mets, Cubs and maybe Dodgers ruling the NL every year, just as it is with Boston and the Yankees in NY. Time for the big dogs to pee in the tall grass. Or something.

 

POST OF THE YEAR! Nice work, I completely agree with everything you typed!

 

agree with both of you guys!

[WrigleyField 22]

No on Drew, he's not reliable enough.

 

Trade Jones (anywhere!) to make room for Carlos Lee in LF, and put Matt Murton in RF and Fonzie in CF. That is my game plan/wish.

 

Lugo doesn't thrill me, I'd rather put the money towards Schmidt or Hudson. If you add C Lee to your lineup, the Cubs would be perfectly fine with Izzy, or perhaps, an Izzy/Theriot platoon, at SS and batting 8th.

 

Very pumped on the Soriano deal, for once, the Cubs are acting like the big market team that they are. It should be the Mets, Cubs and maybe Dodgers ruling the NL every year, just as it is with Boston and the Yankees in NY. Time for the big dogs to pee in the tall grass. Or something.

 

POST OF THE YEAR! Nice work, I completely agree with everything you typed!

 

I have to disagree. Any post that brings in Lee and doesn't get rid of Izturis is terrible IMO.

[Electron Blue]

I just think you guys are way to negative about everything. Either way you guys would have been upset even if we had signed Drew or if Soriano plays up to his contract.

 

just stop talking (writing, typing, whatever)

 

Stop being a . . . . . . (edited by electron blue)

 

you probably oughta change that before someone does for you.

Edited November 20, 2006 by Electron Blue