Cubs sign Soriano

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429712

 

Per that same page, the league average is about 20 points higher than MLB, so it's not nearly as troubling a sign as a major leaguer having a BABIP that high(say, Mark DeRosa).

 

Didn't DeRosa have a high LD% as well?

 

Yes, but LD% isn't particularly predictable, and DeRosa has never had a BABIP near that high, so it's still a cause for concern. That's a topic for a different 60 page thread though.

[Soriano12]

From what I saw last year Soriono was very raw in LF. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, but would make some silly mistakes out there. The ball is in the court for this new coaching staff. He has the tools to become an elite defensive outfielder. Lets hope Lou's staff has a commitment to coaching and improving player's skills. The last staff certainly did not.

[nilodnayr]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

 

please elaborate on what said book says so I don't have to read said book.

 

Basically that there is an optimal way to construct a batting order. Something like your best hitter should be in the 2 hole, second best leading off, third best in the cleanup stop, 4th best in the 3 hole. But thats completely based on memory...but you get the basic principle, batting order matters, just like you said a page ago. I'll look for more specifics and post them here.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/daily/article/constructing-lineups/

[Soul]

From what I saw last year Soriono was very raw in LF. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, but would make some silly mistakes out there. The ball is in the court for this new coaching staff. He has the tools to become an elite defensive outfielder. Lets hope Lou's staff has a commitment to coaching and improving player's skills. The last staff certainly did not.

 

I'd like to see Soriano in RF, Jones in CF, and then Matty in LF.

 

I must admit to being a bit disturbed with reports that the Cubs would put Soriano in CF. Not sure that's a real good idea, but it's so early right now, ST is months & months away so who really knows what's going on.

[Mephistopheles]

it's not outrageous. arrogant? yes. know-it-all ism? yes. claiming to have the ability to predict the future (like Nilo and I were discussing)? yes.

 

And showing blind stupid faith towards stupid things such as 40/40 overpaid out machines is perfectly fine?

 

you have no point other than that you think pie is the best thing since sliced bread when in fact he's a run of the mill toolsy outfield prospect at this time and you also want to make sure we dont hurt him by throwing him to the fire which is exactly what billy beane, the braves and the marlins have done to their best prospects the last decade and guess what, it's worked out perfectly fine for them.

 

40 games isn't going to make a difference. 160 might. 40 certainly not. That's not being arrogant that using my head.

[questionmarkgrace]

I'd put pie in center if we could somehow upgrade at short. But I don't see it happening. Lugo is the only free agent ss worth looking at. There isn't a surplus of shortstops on any team either so I really cant see a trade. maybe the braves trade renteria for salary room but I doubt it. tampa bay has Zorbist and Brignac but good luck prying either away. I think pie will be in AAA to start the year again. The thing is that if jones is really going to be in Center we will be seeing some circuitous routes from all three outfielders. Though the arm strength will be an upgrade over pierre, even if Jaque does throw a worm burner here and there.

[jjgman21]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

 

please elaborate on what said book says so I don't have to read said book.

 

Basically that there is an optimal way to construct a batting order. Something like your best hitter should be in the 2 hole, second best leading off, third best in the cleanup stop, 4th best in the 3 hole. But thats completely based on memory...but you get the basic principle, batting order matters, just like you said a page ago. I'll look for more specifics and post them here.

 

wasn't there a calculator that went along with it? if so and you find it, please post a link.

 

edit - found it linked in the hbt article.

Edited November 20, 2006 by jjgman21

[nilodnayr]

 

Ahh, sorry misunderstood what you were asking for. I'm not sure what he used, but I would argue that the best predictor of future #s are the last 2 or 3 years, not last 5 years. Thats from an actuarial perspective.

 

I understand that, but by the same notion, one should adjust up if it looks like there has been improvement throughout those three years and adjust down if there looks to be regression in those three years.

 

should one not?

 

If there is reason for the trends to continue, absolutely.

[cubweiser03]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

 

please elaborate on what said book says so I don't have to read said book.

 

Basically that there is an optimal way to construct a batting order. Something like your best hitter should be in the 2 hole, second best leading off, third best in the cleanup stop, 4th best in the 3 hole. But thats completely based on memory...but you get the basic principle, batting order matters, just like you said a page ago. I'll look for more specifics and post them here.

 

Thats interesting, Ill have to read more. Ive pretty much thought you put your best hitter in the 3 hole. Here he says 4th.

[jjgman21]

 

I think this move cannot be looked at simply based off of its own merit. We need to see what other players sign for and see what other pickups the Hendry makes this offseason. For all we know Drew may sign a 6/110 deal.

 

aka viewing things in a vacuum.

[jjgman21]

it's not outrageous. arrogant? yes. know-it-all ism? yes. claiming to have the ability to predict the future (like Nilo and I were discussing)? yes.

 

And showing blind stupid faith towards stupid things such as 40/40 overpaid out machines is perfectly fine?

 

you have no point other than that you think pie is the best thing since sliced bread when in fact he's a run of the mill toolsy outfield prospect at this time and you also want to make sure we dont hurt him by throwing him to the fire which is exactly what billy beane, the braves and the marlins have done to their best prospects the last decade and guess what, it's worked out perfectly fine for them.

 

40 games isn't going to make a difference. 160 might. 40 certainly not. That's not being arrogant that using my head.

 

you must be attributing some other posters remarks to me because I have no idea what you are talking about. I haven't said one thing in this entire thread about Pie's abilities or what I think about him. my only mention was that throwing him into the major leagues as an injury replacement before he is ready could do him damage. you speak in absolutes saying it would not, which is asinine.

 

a few pages back you will find me saying that throwing out 40-40-40 is silly. again, I think you are attributing other people's comments to me. I have said nothing that would indicate blind faith and have said over and over that I think he is going to be overpaid.

 

you really should step off because as smart as you are, you are really making yourself look stupid and proving my point to Nilo over and over.

[Laura]

Bruce said Soriano will play RF, but the Trib says he'll play CF.

 

The Cubs plan to have Soriano play centerfield and bat lead-off, giving them three players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season in their starting lineup. With Soriano in the fold, the Cubs will next turn towards acquiring a starting pitcher or two.

 

Link.

 

Bruce seemed to think he had a pretty solid source. :) A few people upthread reported hearing Piniella say on WGN that Soriano would be playing one of the corners and that the Cubs may still be in the market for a CFer.

[jjgman21]

 

Ahh, sorry misunderstood what you were asking for. I'm not sure what he used, but I would argue that the best predictor of future #s are the last 2 or 3 years, not last 5 years. Thats from an actuarial perspective.

 

I understand that, but by the same notion, one should adjust up if it looks like there has been improvement throughout those three years and adjust down if there looks to be regression in those three years.

 

should one not?

 

If there is reason for the trends to continue, absolutely.

 

so then shouldn't we ask "are there reasons for the trends to continue?"

 

I know the answer, of course we should, and I think that's what PECOTA is all about. so it comes back to my original question, what was he using to compare Soriano and Drew? did he use numbers that show these trends, or did he pluck those that best made his points. his silence on the matter is deafening.

[Mephistopheles]

you really should step off because as smart as you are, you are really making yourself look stupid and proving my point to Nilo over and over.

 

You're right. I am being very stupid backing up and verifying my claims with various facts. God, I should be ashamed.

 

I haven't said one thing in this entire thread about Pie's abilities or what I think about him. my only mention was that throwing him into the major leagues as an injury replacement before he is ready could do him damage. you speak in absolutes saying it would not, which is asinine.

 

I said it wouldn't kill him. Translation: It's insigificant.

[Mephistopheles]

I know the answer, of course we should, and I think that's what PECOTA is all about. so it comes back to my original question, what was he using to compare Soriano and Drew? did he use numbers that show these trends, or did he pluck those that best made his points. his silence on the matter is deafening.

 

ive already said it. career averages for soriano, drew and some estimation on pie.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well, I guess we can put to rest the idea that the Cubs never get the top FA.

[jjgman21]

you really should step off because as smart as you are, you are really making yourself look stupid and proving my point to Nilo over and over.

 

You're right. I am being very stupid backing up and verifying my claims with various facts. God, I should be ashamed.

 

I haven't said one thing in this entire thread about Pie's abilities or what I think about him. my only mention was that throwing him into the major leagues as an injury replacement before he is ready could do him damage. you speak in absolutes saying it would not, which is asinine.

 

I said it wouldn't kill him. Translation: It's insigificant.

 

re: the first part, find me those facts. in other words, where are these posts where I showed blind faith and said Pie was the best thing since sliced bread?

 

re: the second part, exactly. you said with authority and without any reservations that it wouldn't kill him, aka would be insignificant. why are you here? why aren't you in Vegas with clairvoyance like that? or alternatively, where do you find the time to know so much about Pie and so much about all the other ballplayers brought up too early? will you supply me with the facts to back up your claims that it won't kill him or be insignificant? or are you going to say you provide facts, and then just state your opinion on a matter and declare it as a fact?

[rjchapma]

maybe we over payed for Soriano, but hes a much better fit for us over Drew.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

maybe we over payed for Soriano, but hes a much better fit for us over Drew.

 

Negatory.

[nilodnayr]

 

Ahh, sorry misunderstood what you were asking for. I'm not sure what he used, but I would argue that the best predictor of future #s are the last 2 or 3 years, not last 5 years. Thats from an actuarial perspective.

 

I understand that, but by the same notion, one should adjust up if it looks like there has been improvement throughout those three years and adjust down if there looks to be regression in those three years.

 

should one not?

 

If there is reason for the trends to continue, absolutely.

 

so then shouldn't we ask "are there reasons for the trends to continue?"

 

I know the answer, of course we should, and I think that's what PECOTA is all about. so it comes back to my original question, what was he using to compare Soriano and Drew? did he use numbers that show these trends, or did he pluck those that best made his points. his silence on the matter is deafening.

 

 

KC, in the Sori>2006 cubs CF vs Lugo>2006 cubs ss analysis, what did you use for Sori and Lugos #s?

 

Also, in the Drew/Pie>Sori, what did you use for Drew and Sori's numbers.

 

 

Edit: Nevermind, you posted before I saw.

Edited November 20, 2006 by nilodnayr

[Soriano12]

alot of banter in this thread. calm down everyone. Cubs finally spent some $$$$(on an external FA at least) crack a beer, or 2, or 3.

[jjgman21]

I know the answer, of course we should, and I think that's what PECOTA is all about. so it comes back to my original question, what was he using to compare Soriano and Drew? did he use numbers that show these trends, or did he pluck those that best made his points. his silence on the matter is deafening.

 

ive already said it. career averages for soriano, drew and some estimation on pie.

 

I must have missed it.

 

great methodology for a sabr guy. really shows the trends with those career averages.

[SouthSideRyan]

so we went from terrible to average spending 150 million in the process when we probably could have done it for less than half that.

 

Probably is the key word there. You, nor I know what could have been done and how much money could have/have not been spent.

 

It isn't our money, if the Trib wants to spend it then let them.

 

Actually I am certain it could have been done.

 

The Cubs got an EqA of roughly .208 from their SSs last season in 486 outs. Julio Lugo's career EqA is .265. The difference between those two over 486 outs is roughly 41 runs. The actual should be higher because for the most part Lugo's been a better hitter the last couple of seasons.

 

The Cubs got an EqA of roughly .250 from their CFers last season in 526 outs. Alfonso Soriano's career EqA is .287. The difference between those two over 526 outs is roughly 30 runs.

 

Julio Lugo could be had for what, 32 million max? Soriano was had for what, 100 million more.

 

You can say shove EqA in your ass all you want. You can do this with any stat and find a similar outcome.

 

But comparing to what SS did last year isn't really the proper comparison. It makes more sense to compare to what could reasonably be expected out of SS this year, which is a hell of a lot better than .208 just on a dead cat bounce.

[jjgman21]

maybe we over payed for Soriano, but hes a much better fit for us over Drew.

 

I disagree.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Well, I guess we can put to rest the idea that the Cubs never get the top FA.

 

Technically, and arguably, we got 2 of the top 3.