Cubs sign Soriano

[JWCUB]

This has been a really interesting conversation. I'm not necessarily all about declaring myself in one camp or another, but there are some positives here that the anti-Soriano camp are missing, and some negatives that bear mentioning.

 

Soriano didn't really get more patient last season. He showed an increase in BB's that was heavily influenced by IBB's. He also set a career high in K's, and while he also set one in p/PA, it wasn't like a huge increase. I have doubts that his swing will age well as he loses bat speed, and I have severe doubts about his ability to ever improve his palte discipline. Also, his contract is obviously very risky. Even 6/$90m with options is a lot of money for someone who's not even the best offensive player on your team. If he plays RF, that's the toughest OF position in Wrigley. That bears watching.

 

On the other hand, Soriano will provide one of the 2 things the Cubs offense was lacking: SLG%. He's not going to be an on-base maven, but he will slug. I would be stunned if he hit less than 35 HR's. If he puts up his career averages we're a much better offense right now than we were at any point in 2005-6. Depending on other factors, the Cub offense will improve to at least 2003 levels, and come close to 2004 levels depending on other moves. The fact that we signed him means we now have some flexibility with the tradable assets we still hold. We have 4 relievers, Jones, Izturis and some minor league players with which to deal.

 

Assuming we still are looking for a CF, Boston could move Coco Crisp for Izturis and Eyre, and I'd take that deal. I'm also assuming Hendry will also look to deal for a starter. Given the lack of quantity and quality in the FA market, Hendry seems to have done a halfway decent job of maximizing the cards in his hand. Of the 4 best offensive FA's, we retained one and brought a second in. 2/4 is not half bad.

 

I don't think this move should be judged solely on Soriano's plate discipline. Even supporters of this move should concede that it's terrible and not likely to improve. Likewise, his contract is bad, but at least for the first 3 years we should get good production from him. I'm thinking that this is an overall positive for the team, but it's not all that clear cut. Should it be clear cut for $17m per? Maybe it should be, but the Cubs are not in a position to pick and choose.

 

I'd have been happier with Drew, but am okay with this.

 

Excellant, excellant post. =D>

 

Like I said about 3 or 4 pages ago, the early signing will put some teams behind the 8 ball. When Lee, Drew and Lugo sign, the FA pool is about dry. Hendry could be in a great position to wheel and deal on HIS terms.

[Mephistopheles]

Soriano didn't really get more patient last season. He showed an increase in BB's that was heavily influenced by IBB's. He also set a career high in K's, and while he also set one in p/PA, it wasn't like a huge increase. I have doubts that his swing will age well as he loses bat speed, and I have severe doubts about his ability to ever improve his palte discipline. Also, his contract is obviously very risky. Even 6/$90m with options is a lot of money for someone who's not even the best offensive player on your team. If he plays RF, that's the toughest OF position in Wrigley. That bears watching.

 

viewtopic.php?t=36204

 

my thoughts on sorianos career year.

 

not ALL of his IsoD increase was by IBBs

Edited November 20, 2006 by Mephistopheles

[rjchapma]

Ok, I just got back from the Cowboys game. (Go Cowboys!) This thread is 39 pages long. Cliff Notes Please!

 

Pending a physical Soriano is a Cub. 8 years for 136 looks to be the maximum years/money. Rumors around that the last 2-3 years might be option years (no idea whose) and that approx 90 mil is guaranteed.

 

Everybody who doesn't like the signing is negative and Jim Hendry just can't get the props he deserves.

 

Everybody who does like the signing doesn't understand statistics or finances and needs 10 more years of school.

 

I'm bitter and sarcastic (for the last few comments at least)

 

what about those of us who don't like the terms but like the signing anyway?

 

You don't exist.

 

 

apparently I dont exsist!?

[Rob]

Ok, I just got back from the Cowboys game. (Go Cowboys!) This thread is 39 pages long. Cliff Notes Please!

 

Pending a physical Soriano is a Cub. 8 years for 136 looks to be the maximum years/money. Rumors around that the last 2-3 years might be option years (no idea whose) and that approx 90 mil is guaranteed.

 

Everybody who doesn't like the signing is negative and Jim Hendry just can't get the props he deserves.

 

Everybody who does like the signing doesn't understand statistics or finances and needs 10 more years of school.

 

I'm bitter and sarcastic (for the last few comments at least)

 

what about those of us who don't like the terms but like the signing anyway?

 

Throw me into that catagory as well.

 

In actuality, I think everybody is in that category.

 

Nobody here has argued Soriano isn't an upgrade. He most certainly is. The only question is whether his contract has enough of a negative impact to be a hassle now or in the future. Some people feel more strongly than others that it does or does not. That seems to be the only divide.

 

If the only question was "would you want Soriano on your team" everybody would say yes.

[jjgman21]

no worries on the quote issue, they are long behind us

 

I disagree, the critics (me, KC, TT, Jon, Navin, and Rob) are using all the information taht is available to make our claim. We do not propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future.

 

you may have wanted to hold onto that before KC's posts about Pie.

 

Im not sure what KC used for Pie's numbers if by chance Drew did go down for 40 or how many ever games, but I'm guessing he used MLE. KC, can you expound?

 

I wasn't talking about the numbers. I was talking about his assertion that 40 games in the majors before he is ready won't hurt his development.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm still drunk on liquor and excitement from the Cowboys beating the Colts to completely comprehend this.

 

I'm glad we signed Soriano. I'd have preferred Drew, but we needed a bat and we now have one.

 

But [expletive] that's a huge deal. It's going to be an albatross in later years....but wow!

 

Hendry is likely looking at it this way.

 

1. If Soriano helps us win, it's worth it.

2. If we don't win with Soriano, he won't be around to have to worry about that contract.

 

Well, I guess Soriano got Beltran money and then some!

 

[expletive]...

 

And how about dem Cowboys! Woo!

 

I gotta take a piss, this excitement is too much.

[UMFan83]

Has it been established if any/how many of the 8 years are option years?

 

We'll probably know by tommorow at the press conference, but from what Kaplan and other beat writers/analysts its looking like 5 years/85M with 3 option years at 17M each, or it could be 6 years/98M with 2 options years for 19M each.

 

Those options don't make sense to me. If they are team options, I highly doubt that the Cubs would pick them up given his age. Why would Soriano allow that? If they are player options, unless Soriano becomes an all time great (he wont) why wouldn't he pick them up?

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm still drunk on liquor and excitement from the Cowboys beating the Colts to completely comprehend this.

 

I'm glad we signed Soriano. I'd have preferred Drew, but we needed a bat and we now have one.

 

But [expletive] that's a huge deal. It's going to be an albatross in later years....but wow!

 

Hendry is likely looking at it this way.

 

1. If Soriano helps us win, it's worth it.

2. If we don't win with Soriano, he won't be around to have to worry about that contract.

 

Well, I guess Soriano got Beltran money and then some!

 

[expletive]...

 

And how about dem Cowboys! Woo!

 

I gotta take a piss, this excitement is too much.

 

You talk like a sailor when you've had a few!

[da bears]

Has it been established if any/how many of the 8 years are option years?

 

We'll probably know by tommorow at the press conference, but from what Kaplan and other beat writers/analysts its looking like 5 years/85M with 3 option years at 17M each, or it could be 6 years/98M with 2 options years for 19M each.

 

Those options don't make sense to me. If they are team options, I highly doubt that the Cubs would pick them up given his age. Why would Soriano allow that? If they are player options, unless Soriano becomes an all time great (he wont) why wouldn't he pick them up?

 

That's what I'm confused about as well. Maybe they're team options with high buyout clause's. By the way, I love that Moose sig.

[nilodnayr]

http://www.dailyherald.com/story.asp?id=251874

 

I apologize if this link was already included - I couldn't read all 50+ pages.

 

Mr. Miles writes that the Cubs envision Soriano leading off and playing RF, with Jacque moving to CF.

 

I still personally think they're going to move Jones to an NL West or AL West team. I'm not seeing moving him to Cleveland as part of a package to get Westbrook, but that's just my speculation.

 

Which NL/AL west teams are you thinking? And who would we get to play CF?

[MPrior]

Frankly, I'm very unhappy about this. Soriano has a career slugging-heavy .835 OPS, and he's more likely to decline than he is to improve at this point. Even if he produces significantly above that average (say, .860) for all EIGHT YEARS of his contract, it's dramatically overpaying. The chances of that happening are practically nil, and he could wind up a huge bust as early as 2007, let alone 4 or 5 years down the line. I didn't read all fifty-whatever pages of the post, so I'm sure this has been argued to death, but I officially predict that this will come to be regarded as a terrible signing, unless the Cubs win the World Series very soon. Hendry could have just crippled this team for years to come.

 

URGH!

 

Just venting.

[oldcubsfan]

Todd will be lucky to get more than a one year deal, with no position to play.

 

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

Selectivity of numbers used again. He has no real position, doesn't produce runs, can't run but whatever. I think people have hired him because of potential and dumped him because he doesn't really produce.

When can we expect you to stop bringing up Walker for no reason? 2008? 2009? Let me know so I can circle the date on my calendar.

 

Or maybe we can just fully establish the Todd Walker scale and compare every potential target for years to come against your questionable impressions of Walker's production. Tim may have some room on the front page for it.

 

In fairness, Rob's the one who started by using Walker as the mystery player in his comparison.

Oh, I'm aware. He certainly has in other threads, though, and apparently can only justify Soriano's deal/reputation by putting down Walker. And that's been going on for a good year now.

 

I will tell you again, Todd Walker is an overrateed, under achieving ballplayer and I'm very sorry if you disagree with me and the rest of baseball. He fits into the Bobby Hill, Ben Grieve, Hee sop Choi class of player, good OBP and lousy baseball players.

[RynoRules]

Todd will be lucky to get more than a one year deal, with no position to play.

 

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

Selectivity of numbers used again. He has no real position, doesn't produce runs, can't run but whatever. I think people have hired him because of potential and dumped him because he doesn't really produce.

When can we expect you to stop bringing up Walker for no reason? 2008? 2009? Let me know so I can circle the date on my calendar.

 

Or maybe we can just fully establish the Todd Walker scale and compare every potential target for years to come against your questionable impressions of Walker's production. Tim may have some room on the front page for it.

 

And when can we expect you (and others) to understand that a contract, by definition, includes two parties, and accordingly, both must agree to it:

 

Hendry got lucky. Big time. All he had to do was throw in some more cash, probably as little as $1 million a year, and Ramirez doesn't wait until Sunday to sign. Yet he decided to take a huge gamble. It was not a good strategy.

 

Even the post-deal quotes point to the exact opposite. And Jim bumped up his offer a few million dollars in the final 24 hours of negotiation, so there was no deal in place.

 

Aramis' choice was down to signing with the Cubs or going elsewhere for $20-$30 million more. Hendry knew that. Jim raised his final offer roughly $3 million at the end but easily could have done much more, avoiding looking like he was low-balling Aramis and wasn't that set on keeping him. It wasn't a case of meeting in the middle. It was Aramis' decision to turn down a lot of money to stay in Chicago.

 

How can you possibly know all of this? You have no evidence to support it - no inside source; your suppositions are enormous. They are also contradictory in some sense: You argue that Hendry got lucky in that he desperately raised his offer by a petty 3 mill at the 11th hour. Had ARam taken the open mkt route, he's of received an additional $20-$30 and probably an extra year on the deal. So you believe that ARam rejected the original offer, but when Hendry offered an extra couple of mill he said to himself, "W'oh! For an extra three mill forget that extra 20-30 mill I could earn if go out on the open mkt!" That's not how this sort of thing works, yet you profess to understand it as though you were in the room.

 

I have savaged Hendry for sometime now, including and most recently on the DeRosa deal, but you and others kill him for his negotiations and overpaying FAs without really knowing the market, who the parties are, and by reading into innocuous comments made at run of the mill press conferences. No one knows what happens in a negotation other than those who were present. I know this b/c negotiation is a major part of what I do for a living.

 

I agree this was a steep price to pay for Soriano, and the contract relative to his production makes me nervous. But I'd rather see this happen than what has not happened over the past two offseasons.

 

If you want to kill Hendry, by all means go ahead. But please stop acting like you know you could have negotiated a better contract even though you know maybe 10% of the info relevant to doing so.

Edited November 20, 2006 by RynoRules

[Butterscup1679666578]

Assuming we still are looking for a CF, Boston could move Coco Crisp for Izturis and Eyre, and I'd take that deal. I'm also assuming Hendry will also look to deal for a starter. Given the lack of quantity and quality in the FA market, Hendry seems to have done a halfway decent job of maximizing the cards in his hand. Of the 4 best offensive FA's, we retained one and brought a second in. 2/4 is not half bad.

 

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

[UMFan83]

Frankly, I'm very unhappy about this. Soriano has a career slugging-heavy .835 OPS, and he's more likely to decline than he is to improve at this point. Even if he produces significantly above that average (say, .860) for all EIGHT YEARS of his contract, it's dramatically overpaying. The chances of that happening are practically nil, and he could wind up a huge bust as early as 2007, let alone 4 or 5 years down the line. I didn't read all fifty-whatever pages of the post, so I'm sure this has been argued to death, but I officially predict that this will come to be regarded as a terrible signing, unless the Cubs win the World Series very soon. Hendry could have just crippled this team for years to come.

 

URGH!

 

Just venting.

 

That's what I'm saying

[Mephistopheles]

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible.

 

in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano.

[rjchapma]

Assuming we still are looking for a CF, Boston could move Coco Crisp for Izturis and Eyre, and I'd take that deal. I'm also assuming Hendry will also look to deal for a starter. Given the lack of quantity and quality in the FA market, Hendry seems to have done a halfway decent job of maximizing the cards in his hand. Of the 4 best offensive FA's, we retained one and brought a second in. 2/4 is not half bad.

 

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

Nicely stated that would be a nice signing and if that trade deal would work it would be nice.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Assuming we still are looking for a CF, Boston could move Coco Crisp for Izturis and Eyre, and I'd take that deal. I'm also assuming Hendry will also look to deal for a starter. Given the lack of quantity and quality in the FA market, Hendry seems to have done a halfway decent job of maximizing the cards in his hand. Of the 4 best offensive FA's, we retained one and brought a second in. 2/4 is not half bad.

 

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

I think the big thing people who want Crisp believe is that he had injury issues(hand, maybe?) that suppressed his numbers last year. His previous two years(.297/.344/.446 & .300/.345/.465) look much better, plus he's now entering his prime years.

[rjchapma]

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible.

 

in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano.

 

We need pitching with the trade not some more offense. roberts would be nice and pitching instead of just stacking our line up we need to get a staff thats at least ok to look at.

[CP_414]

I have a hard time being too critical of this signing without knowing what our payroll will be. If it is $130M+ there will be tons of money to upgrade CF, and add 2 high quality starters. If it is 105 we are in a financial bind at the moment.

 

Soriano is a huge improvment to the Cubs offense. I value OBP, but I also value SLG. Soriano provides a huge boost in the slugging department and gives you a guy you can hit 80+ extra base hits a year. I think they overpaid by quite a bit, but if thats what it takes to improve the Cubs, thats what it takes. Lots of people were critical of Detroit for overpaying Pudge, Kenny Rogers, and Maggs, and they certainly did, but without those guys they aren't playing for the World Series.

 

I like that this move should make sure that Jones is not on the team Opening Day. I like that we have 3 guys with a great chance at 40 HR's on the team for the next 4+ years. I like that we have a guy who can steal 40 bases so Hendry doesn't do something stupid like give Pierre 10M a year because we need someone who can create a run. I like that the Cubs spent big money to sign the guy considered the top free agent in MLB. Wheteher he deserved that title or not, it shows a change in philospohy from ownership. This hasn't happened before. It could be because they are selling the team, but regardless, this is a first.

[CUBZ99]

Assuming we still are looking for a CF, Boston could move Coco Crisp for Izturis and Eyre, and I'd take that deal. I'm also assuming Hendry will also look to deal for a starter. Given the lack of quantity and quality in the FA market, Hendry seems to have done a halfway decent job of maximizing the cards in his hand. Of the 4 best offensive FA's, we retained one and brought a second in. 2/4 is not half bad.

 

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

Yeah, his .740ish OPS is pretty depressing. but he does have a novelty name.

[WrigleyField 22]

Has it been established if any/how many of the 8 years are option years?

 

We'll probably know by tommorow at the press conference, but from what Kaplan and other beat writers/analysts its looking like 5 years/85M with 3 option years at 17M each, or it could be 6 years/98M with 2 options years for 19M each.

 

Those options don't make sense to me. If they are team options, I highly doubt that the Cubs would pick them up given his age. Why would Soriano allow that? If they are player options, unless Soriano becomes an all time great (he wont) why wouldn't he pick them up?

 

I would guess that the first option year would be in the Cubs hands, but at a very steep buyout price. The other two years would be either mutual or player option.

 

Just for example, say it works like this:

2007- 19

2008- 19

2009- 18

2010- 17

2011- 17

2012- 17 (or team option with $10M buyout)

2013- 15 (or player option with $5M buyout)

2014- 14 (or mutual option with $5M buyout)

 

Now, while it might be easy to take the $10M buyou remember buyouts go towards the previous season, so we will have paid him $27M for 2011. Is it worth the $36M you save the next few years? If you don't buy him out, the ball is in his court and he could make an easy $15M, so you don't get to opt out until the next season. I'm sure the option years will be something along these lines.

[Shavo]

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible.

 

in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano.

 

Right, because you know 100% that the Red Sox would do that deal.

 

Soriano/Derosa > Crisp/Lugo.

[nilodnayr]

Im not sure what KC used for Pie's numbers if by chance Drew did go down for 40 or how many ever games, but I'm guessing he used MLE. KC, can you expound?

 

averaged his 2005 MLE EqA, 2006 MLE EqA and 2007 PECOTA projection (last years pecotas) and those figures were {.265,.244,.257} respectively, which average to .255 which was basically what we got from Pierre last season. (Actually it's higher but I didn't bother saying that)

 

I think thats a wonderful job of using all the information that is available...I knew you wouldn't let me down when I made that claim!

[jjgman21]

I'm just wondering what the infatuation with Crisp is? He doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base all that often, has a low SLG%, and doesn't seem like he'd be all that beneficial to the team. I'd rather sign Roberts and trade Izturis and Eyre for a SP instead.

 

because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible.

 

in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano.

 

again living in a vacuum.

 

No Boston outfielder goes anywhere until another outfielder is signed.