Starting pitching

[Shilzzz]

i would like to predict that starting pitching will be the problem with this club come opening day.

 

i am very very afraid that the rotation will end up looking like:

Zambrano

Miller

Hill

Lilly

Padilla

 

basically a number one and four number fours.

 

matsuzaka is gone, from all accounts i've read both zito and schmidt are wanting to stay on the west coast(zito in san diego and schmidt in seattle), leaving hendry very little room to end up with at least a solid number two(no pun intended).

 

dempster and jones for hudson is a possibility, and while i admit i'm not so sure about contract dollars, it's tough to imagine atlanta taking on any salary(though i guess the cubs could pay some extra if need be).

 

i know hendry can do better than lilly and padilla, specifically with wade miller still being a question mark. and while the offense is in need of upgrading certainly, this is a pitching staff that has had little in the way of consistency outside of zambrano(who, by the way has still been used A LOT over the last couple years).

 

who else is out there to acquire via trade?

[questionmarkgrace]

maybe it was just the order you had the pitchers in but there is no way miller is the #2 in that staff.

[Shilzzz]

maybe it was just the order you had the pitchers in but there is no way miller is the #2 in that staff.

 

well who is a number two in that staff? none of those pitchers are too much of a proven commodity.

[MPrior]

i would like to predict that starting pitching will be the problem with this club come opening day.

 

i am very very afraid that the rotation will end up looking like:

Zambrano

Miller

Hill

Lilly

Padilla

 

basically a number one and four number fours.

 

matsuzaka is gone, from all accounts i've read both zito and schmidt are wanting to stay on the west coast(zito in san diego and schmidt in seattle), leaving hendry very little room to end up with at least a solid number two(no pun intended).

 

dempster and jones for hudson is a possibility, and while i admit i'm not so sure about contract dollars, it's tough to imagine atlanta taking on any salary(though i guess the cubs could pay some extra if need be).

 

i know hendry can do better than lilly and padilla, specifically with wade miller still being a question mark. and while the offense is in need of upgrading certainly, this is a pitching staff that has had little in the way of consistency outside of zambrano(who, by the way has still been used A LOT over the last couple years).

 

who else is out there to acquire via trade?

 

I more or less agree with you. Starting pitching could wind up being a HUGE problem. We've got holes more or less everywhere on this team, but I think those in the starting rotation will be the hardest to fill adequately.

 

That said, the rotation is also where there's the most potential for pleasant surprise - Prior could come back (although we shouldn't count on it), Miller could regain some of his old form (although we shouldn't count on it), Hill could post ace-like numbers (although, again, we shouldn't count on it), and Wood could be back in the rotation and dominant towards the end of the year (which would basically be a miracle).

 

But chances are, the rotation will be in shambles unless Hendry pulls something very nice out of his, um . . . hat.

[A New Era]

s-s-s-s-solid number twoooo. Huh huh. .

[questionmarkgrace]

I would go z, lilly, padilla, Hill and then miller. Miller has not shown me anything yet he had two decent starts last year and an 89 mph fastball. Its hard to pencil him in period.

[third eye]

Now color me ignorant, but i wouldn't think that would be the WORST thing that could happen. Think about what you are offering. One 4.30 pitcher in the AL with 180 IP and one 4.50 pitcher in the AL wih 200IP this year. Add Hill to that and I would expect our top 4 pitchers each with over 180 IP and 30 starts. I expect Hill to put up about a 14-12 3.90 this year (maybe aggressive by some peoples' estimation, but thats what I expect). If we assume a .500 record out of Padilla/Lilly and a 4.20 ERA (improved since its the NL), that would mean we'd have a top 4 that is reasonably solid - enough to get the team in 90 win contention ASSUMING they bring in a big bat and a complimentary bat along with a full and healthy season from ARAM and DLee.

 

Let me be clear, though. I think pitching is a top priority this offseason. But the scenario presented here wouldn't be the worst thing in the world IF we beefed up the offense. The only concern I have is if these pitching acquisitions mirror the offensive acquisitions we make.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I don't see any resolution to the original poster's query, because the market is all #4 pitchers other than Zito, Schmidt and Matsuzaka. What else can you do? No team with a bona fide #1 or #2 is making them available in trade, at least not that I've read. This is the problem when you're the Cubs and you've invested 5 years and many dollars into a pitching-heavy minor league system, and essentially have nothing to show for it other than Zambrano and Hill.

 

The teams that don't have a pitching problem have for the most part grown their own talent. Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, San Diego.

 

Add in the fact that both NY teams are aggressively looking to add starters, and I think bringing in two #4s is about the best that can be hoped for here.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't see any resolution to the original poster's query, because the market is all #4 pitchers other than Zito, Schmidt and Matsuzaka. What else can you do? No team with a bona fide #1 or #2 is making them available in trade, at least not that I've read. This is the problem when you're the Cubs and you've invested 5 years and many dollars into a pitching-heavy minor league system, and essentially have nothing to show for it other than Zambrano and Hill.

 

The teams that don't have a pitching problem have for the most part grown their own talent. Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, San Diego.

 

Add in the fact that both NY teams are aggressively looking to add starters, and I think bringing in two #4s is about the best that can be hoped for here.

 

To be fair, it worked and is continuing to work, we just let Dusty ruin it. If Dusty hadn't ridden those guys we may be looking to add a number 4 only. Now maybe Prior and Wood(Wood especially w/ the mechanics) were damned to be a constant injury problem, but I think part of it may be Dusty. Even if one of Prior/Wood could have stayed healthy, we'd be looking at the top two spots filled. We've done a fair job at proucing good pitching talent.

[AllStarMe]

i am very very afraid that the rotation will end up looking like:

Zambrano

Miller

Hill

Lilly

Padilla

 

After Z, that rotation is totally ill.

[WrigleyField 22]

On a semi-unrelated note:

As far as developing pitching, we aren't that bad off.

 

Veal and Gallagher are only a few years away from being regulars in the rotation. Hill might live up to all the end of the season hype. We have a #3 pick, which if spent well could be a pitcher who flied through the system. Then we have a plethora of guys who have a chance to be back of the rotation guys at least (Marshall, Guzman-stuff to be top of line, Mateo, Marmol-more likely RP, Ryu-maybe) Then all it takes is one good season and a guy like Shaver could fly up the ladder. None of these guys can really be counted on next year, except to count on Marshall/Guzman/Mateo/etc to take on the last spot. I'd almost like to see if we can find some good pitchers willing to take on 1-3 year w/ option contracts. This would basically mean old guys I guess. The Padilla/Lilly types will want that long contract to last them. The older guys might be willing to take shorter deals and probably have the chance to perform as well as the slightly younger guys who want longer term deals. I honestly think that our pitching situation will partially solve itself within a short time, and if it doesn't get resolved we can always sign a new FA the following years. I just don't have a good feeling about long contracts to mediocre pitchers. Its not even the amount I'm worried about. In this market pitchers will get money. No way around it really.

[WrigleyField 22]

On a semi-unrelated note:

As far as developing pitching, we aren't that bad off.

 

Veal and Gallagher are only a few years away from being regulars in the rotation. Hill might live up to all the end of the season hype. We have a #3 pick, which if spent well could be a pitcher who flied through the system. Then we have a plethora of guys who have a chance to be back of the rotation guys at least (Marshall, Guzman-stuff to be top of line, Mateo, Marmol-more likely RP, Ryu-maybe) Then all it takes is one good season and a guy like Shaver could fly up the ladder. None of these guys can really be counted on next year, except to count on Marshall/Guzman/Mateo/etc to take on the last spot. I'd almost like to see if we can find some good pitchers willing to take on 1-2 year w/ option contracts. This would basically mean old guys I guess. The Padilla/Lilly types will want that long contract to last them. The older guys might be willing to take shorter deals and probably have the chance to perform as well as the slightly younger guys who want longer term deals. I honestly think that our pitching situation will partially solve itself within a short time, and if it doesn't get resolved we can always sign a new FA the following years. I just don't have a good feeling about long contracts to mediocre pitchers. Its not even the amount I'm worried about. In this market pitchers will get money. No way around it really.

 

List of pitchers (who are as good as their younger couterparts, or close) who we can sign to shorter deals:

Tom Glavine

Miguel Batista

Greg Maddux

Mike Mussina

Roger Clemens

Jason Schmidt

I just based that off age, there could be other younger guys willing to take on shorter deals.

 

I admit all of that list looks either impossible or very unlikely to sign. But hey, we can at least try to take a shot at signing one or two. Maybe there are younger guys willing to take a shorter deal. If you find that opportunity take it. Worse than ending up with mediocre pitchers is ending up with mediocre pitchers that are signed longer.

 

I just suggest all of this because I think we are closer to building within than some think.

[mg420]

of course starting pitching is the key to getting to the playoffs but i think the idea that you have to trot out 4 or 5 studs to get to the playoffs is completely untrue. look at the starting staffs of the teams that made the playoffs this year. they for the most part had 2 stud pitchers and 3 inning eaters so their bullpens didnt get overused. who would have thought that the tigers rotation would be so effective with a 42 year old and 4 rookies? the cards had a rotation of carpenter, suppan, reyes, weaver & marquis. the twins won with santana, liriano, an often injured radke, bonser & silva. oakland, whose strength was supposed to be their starting staff, won with zito & 3 guys with era's over 4. as long as they can stay healthy and add 1 more starter like lilly or iwaga (or perhaps both of them), the starting staff should be quite effective (especially considering what division the cubs are in).

[CubFanPhilly]

I don't understand the point of identifying a "#2". That's not a terrible rotation (without Prior factored in). It's a deeper and better rotation than most teams have.

 

The point is to outscore your opponent. So if you can't upgrade the rotation significantly, you turn to the offense.

 

With that said I still think the Cubs make a push for Schmidt and/or Zito.

[USSoccer]

If you succeed in making your awful starting pitching average, all you have to do is improve your offense and you can contend for the NL pennant.

 

It's not like St Louis had any good pitchers other than Carpenter.

 

I'd take Padilla and Lilly, and you have:

 

Z

Hill

Miller

Padilla

Lilly.

 

If Prior can give you anything at all by June or July, that's a rotation than can contend (in the NL) provided the right moves are made on the offensive side.

[Pinktermite]

I agree with Soccer, without assuming any "what ifs" in the name of wood for the bullpen and prior and/or miller for the rotation, if you obtain decent innings eaters like batista, padilla, or lilly and eventually get some help from some of our own talent, the cubs will contend if they've bolstered the offense. The Cards proved that this can be done.

 

I also wouldn't say that the Cubs have nothing to show for the last few years insofar as pitching is concerned. Only about 1/10 prospects makes it to the show anyway, so having Zambrano and hill in your rotation makes your rotation 2/5ths home grown...

 

I have renewed confidence in Hendry, let's see if he can use his past gunslinger mentality to get us something worthwhile.