The General Managers' Meetings Thread

[David]

So im not arguing that we need Carlos Lee, Murton is much cheaper I agree with that and we need other positions first, but I comepletly disagree with the comment that Murton is better the Lee. Until Lee actually declines, and Murton plays 8 seasons you cant tell me hes better. Plus you are basing your argument on one half of a season.

 

Murton is a BETTER VALUE.

 

The difference in production next year and in the years thereafter will not be worth the millions more spent to sign Carlos Lee. It's not jut that he's "much cheaper." It's that the difference between the two will likely be nowhere near enough to justify paying Carlos Lee what he'll be demanding.

[David]

So im not arguing that we need Carlos Lee, Murton is much cheaper I agree with that and we need other positions first, but I comepletly disagree with the comment that Murton is better the Lee. Until Lee actually declines, and Murton plays 8 seasons you cant tell me hes better. Plus you are basing your argument on one half of a season.

 

Lee had career highs in HR, RBI and SLG this year. Clearly on the decline

 

You know what, you're right. It would be a smart move to give a 30 year old Carlos Lee 12-15 million for 5 years.

 

 

BTW, assuming Lee isn't on steroids or HGH, when exactly do you expect him (or most players) to begin their career declines, if not in their early-mid 30's?

Edited November 14, 2006 by David

[rjchapma]

ok, but Vlad, Manny, Papi, DLEE, CLEE, Soriano, Sheffield, Dye, Thome, Delgado, Glaus, Thomas, and Sexon would also like to beg to differ.

[goonys evil twin]

first off hes not on the decline. You guys need to get this into you head that you cant say someone who had only played one season is better than a good veteran player. I agree I think we need SP, and a CF over a better LF. On the other hand though someone making that statement because of second half statistics of one year is ridiculous.

 

No, don't you see? Once baseball players hit the mythic age of 32, they automatically go down every year (even when they don't)

 

That's a pretty silly way of putting it. Players decline in their 30's. It's just a fact. It's a different rate for every guy, but it happens. Whatever a guy has done in his mid-to-late 20's, he is most likely not going to eclipse that in his 30's. By and large, signing free agents after their age 30 is a losing proposition, because you are paying for what he used to do, and not what he is going to do. There are exceptions of course, especially if you can get some sort of discount for whatever reason. But a guy like Lee, in this market, isn't going to get a discount. AL teams that can stash him at DH can more easily justify bringing him on board. But NL teams with young corner OFers who are several years away from free agency and already putting up above average production would be wise to stay away from Lee.

 

Murton's career OPS+ = 111

Lee's career OPS+ = 113

[goonys evil twin]

ok, but Vlad, Manny, Papi, DLEE, CLEE, Soriano, Sheffield, Dye, Thome, Delgado, Glaus, Thomas, and Sexon would also like to beg to differ.

 

About what?

 

Pretty much all of those guys had career years at or before 30 and never repeated those numbers after 30.

 

In fact, that's about the worst possible list you could come up with for support of the claim that Carlos Lee won't decline in his 30's.

Edited November 14, 2006 by goony's evil twin

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So im not arguing that we need Carlos Lee, Murton is much cheaper I agree with that and we need other positions first, but I comepletly disagree with the comment that Murton is better the Lee. Until Lee actually declines, and Murton plays 8 seasons you cant tell me hes better. Plus you are basing your argument on one half of a season.

 

Lee had career highs in HR, RBI and SLG this year. Clearly on the decline

 

He did?

 

He did have career highs in HR, RBI (team stat, who cares?) and SLG. Then again, he played 40% of last season in Texas.

[David]

So im not arguing that we need Carlos Lee, Murton is much cheaper I agree with that and we need other positions first, but I comepletly disagree with the comment that Murton is better the Lee. Until Lee actually declines, and Murton plays 8 seasons you cant tell me hes better. Plus you are basing your argument on one half of a season.

 

Lee had career highs in HR, RBI and SLG this year. Clearly on the decline

 

He did?

 

He did have career highs in HR, RBI (team stat, who cares?) and SLG. Then again, he played 40% of last season in Texas.

 

Ya, I edited. I thought he was talking about Derrek, after someone made reference to DLee being ~30.

[Derwood]

So im not arguing that we need Carlos Lee, Murton is much cheaper I agree with that and we need other positions first, but I comepletly disagree with the comment that Murton is better the Lee. Until Lee actually declines, and Murton plays 8 seasons you cant tell me hes better. Plus you are basing your argument on one half of a season.

 

Lee had career highs in HR, RBI and SLG this year. Clearly on the decline

 

You know what, you're right. It would be a smart move to give a 30 year old Carlos Lee 12-15 million for 5 years.

 

yes

 

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1999 23 CHW AL 127  492   66  144  32  2  16   84   4  2  13  72  .293  .312  .463  228   1   7   0   4  11 RoY-7
2000 24 CHW AL 152  572  107  172  29  2  24   92  13  4  38  94  .301  .345  .484  277   1   5   1   3  17
2001 25 CHW AL 150  558   75  150  33  3  24   84  17  7  38  85  .269  .321  .468  261   1   2   2   6  15
2002 26 CHW AL 140  492   82  130  26  2  26   80   1  4  75  73  .264  .359  .484  238   0   7   4   2   5
2003 27 CHW AL 158  623  100  181  35  1  31  113  18  4  37  91  .291  .331  .499  311   0   7   2   4  20 MVP-18
2004 28 CHW AL 153  591  103  180  37  0  31   99  11  5  54  86  .305  .366  .525  310   0   6   3   7  10
2005 29 MIL NL 162  618   85  164  41  0  32  114  13  4  57  87  .265  .324  .487  301   0  11   7   2   8 SS,MVP-17,AS
2006 30 TOT    161  624  102  187  37  1  37  116  19  2  58  65  .300  .355  .540  337   0  11   6   2  22
        MIL NL 102  388   60  111  18  0  28   81  12  2  38  39  .286  .347  .549  213   0   7   4   2  13 AS
        TEX AL  59  236   42   76  19  1   9   35   7  0  20  26  .322  .369  .525  124   0   4   2   0   9
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
8 Seasons     1203 4570  720 1308 270 11 221  782  96 32 370 653  .286  .340  .495 2263   3  56  25  30 108

[Derwood]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

[WrigleyinEngland]

rjchapma wrote:

'ok, but Vlad, Manny, Papi, DLEE, CLEE, Soriano, Sheffield, Dye, Thome, Delgado, Glaus, Thomas, and Sexon would also like to beg to differ.'

 

Sheffield,Thome,Thomas have all had injury problems over the last few years and trying to convince me that Sexson is an established superstar is never going to work KKKKK

[rjchapma]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Well, players *do* decline in their 30s after career years in their late 20s and even early 30s. Lee won't have the benefit of steroids/HGH to help him later on, and quite frankly, Carlos Lee doesn't seem to be the type of guy who's a gym rat - a feature that is needed for most players to keep going at career high levels well into their 30s.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

 

Heard from where?

[Derwood]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Well, players *do* decline in their 30s after career years in their late 20s and even early 30s. Lee won't have the benefit of steroids/HGH to help him later on, and quite frankly, Carlos Lee doesn't seem to be the type of guy who's a gym rat - a feature that is needed for most players to keep going at career high levels well into their 30s.

 

then Sabathia, Zambrano, etc. will all suck soon too?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Well, players *do* decline in their 30s after career years in their late 20s and even early 30s. Lee won't have the benefit of steroids/HGH to help him later on, and quite frankly, Carlos Lee doesn't seem to be the type of guy who's a gym rat - a feature that is needed for most players to keep going at career high levels well into their 30s.

 

then Sabathia, Zambrano, etc. will all suck soon too?

 

I'm talking about hitters. Pitchers are a completely different beast.

[goonys evil twin]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Well, players *do* decline in their 30s after career years in their late 20s and even early 30s. Lee won't have the benefit of steroids/HGH to help him later on, and quite frankly, Carlos Lee doesn't seem to be the type of guy who's a gym rat - a feature that is needed for most players to keep going at career high levels well into their 30s.

 

then Sabathia, Zambrano, etc. will all suck soon too?

 

Why are you using the word suck? That's dishonest. Decline does not mean suck. Besides, pitchers peak years are a completely different story than than hitters.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And it's going to be a new decade before either Zambrano or Sabathia hit 30.

[rjchapma]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

 

Heard from where?

 

Davhearn said it on the last page telling me that pujols, howard, etc. beg to differ about older players having pop.

[RationalSoxFan]

I'd just like to drop in and say that Carlos Lee has never had a .900 OPS.

 

Also: Javier Vazquez for Pelfry/Heilman :D :D :D

 

Please be that stupid Minaya...if only they wanted Freddy...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'd just like to drop in and say that Carlos Lee has never had a .900 OPS.

 

Also: Javier Vazquez for Pelfry/Heilman :D :D :D

 

Please be that stupid Minaya...if only they wanted Freddy...

 

You have got to be kidding. Minaya sucks to even be thinking of that.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Well, players *do* decline in their 30s after career years in their late 20s and even early 30s. Lee won't have the benefit of steroids/HGH to help him later on, and quite frankly, Carlos Lee doesn't seem to be the type of guy who's a gym rat - a feature that is needed for most players to keep going at career high levels well into their 30s.

 

then Sabathia, Zambrano, etc. will all suck soon too?

 

Why are you using the word suck? That's dishonest. Decline does not mean suck. Besides, pitchers peak years are a completely different story than than hitters.

 

Oh, I didn't even notice he used "suck."

[David]

BTW, I'm in no way advocating signing Carlos Lee to play LF, just playing devil's advocate to the notion that he is in some sort of obvious statistical decline

 

Nobody is saying that, though.

 

This is how you avoid disaster contracts like the Yankees are saddled with right now, and like we have been in the past. You don't sign a 30 year old guy (outside of a real superstar like an ARod or Pujols) coming off a career year to a big money long-term contract.

[David]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

 

Heard from where?

 

Davhearn said it on the last page telling me that pujols, howard, etc. beg to differ about older players having pop.

 

LOL Ever put words in my mouth?

Edited November 14, 2006 by David

[CoolHandLuke]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

 

Heard from where?

 

Davhearn said it on the last page telling me that pujols, howard, etc. beg to differ about older players having pop.

 

I think he was talking about how you "heard" that power hitters peak at age 32.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

davhern said the young guys beg to differ about the age thing and hitting for power. Ive also heard that good power hitters except freaks like pujols and howard hit there real top level around 32.

 

Heard from where?

 

Davhearn said it on the last page telling me that pujols, howard, etc. beg to differ about older players having pop.

 

I think he was talking about how you "heard" that power hitters peak at age 32.

 

Yes, that's what I was wondering, rjchapma.